A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Hitch]

I assumed the next manager would be Tek, or is that just fan theory?

 

I've no idea, I'd kinda given up on the idea. But he seems to be hanging around for it.

[Bellhorn04]

Ahem. Jordan Montgomery is getting paid $25M this year for pitching--so far--a total of 16 innings with an ERA of 5.63. Forget what Boras did or failed to do. The Diamondbacks are idiots.

 

And the Red Sox are idiots because we're paying Giolito $19 million for 0 innings, right?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And the Red Sox are idiots because we're paying Giolito $19 million for 0 innings, right?

 

Nope, they're idiots for paying him $38 million, which he'll collect after he opts to not opt out, and instead double his rehab expenses...

[notin]

Nope, they're idiots for paying him $38 million, which he'll collect after he opts to not opt out, and instead double his rehab expenses...

 

Because Giolito was the more obvious injury risk?

[mvp 78]

Nope, they're idiots for paying him $38 million, which he'll collect after he opts to not opt out, and instead double his rehab expenses...

 

You think he'll rehab all next season?

[dgalehouse]

Boras's 2023-24 offseason was more disaster than master.

 

Was it Boras' fault, or did he actually get the best deals possible for what was a somewhat underwhelming group of " Big 4" free agents ? Players who were obviously not as much in demand as they thought they would be .

[mvp 78]

@ByAndrewParker

Looks like Joely Rodriguez has accepted his outright assignment to Worcester. He is on the field and warming up with the WooSox pitchers.

 

Believe he had enough service time to reject it and become a free agent.

[notin]

Was it Boras' fault, or did he actually get the best deals possible for what was a somewhat underwhelming group of " Big 4" free agents ? Players who were obviously not as much in demand as they thought they would be .

 

Very valid point.

 

I mean, who’s the biggest name that bunch? Snell? Bellinger? Good (not great) players but with histories that clearly emphasize the risk.

 

And Chapman and Montgomery aren’t player you build around; they’re players you build around your core with…

[moonslav59]

There's time for some of DD's to flame out. I'm withholding judgement for now.

 

Even if they flame out, they have ALMOST passed Ben's kids, already. (Maybe they already have.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You think he'll rehab all next season?

 

Just hope he stays off the stationary bike if there's a big screen TV in the room. Those ex-White Sox aces can get psychotic when healing.

 

Better keep him away from City Connect uniforms, too (at least if there are scissors in the clubhouse).

 

On second thought, can we keep all Red Sox players away from yellow jerseys?

[Maxbialystock]

And the Red Sox are idiots because we're paying Giolito $19 million for 0 innings, right?

 

Of course they are. Big bucks for pitchers who immediately are injured and out for a year or more are just stupid.

[moonslav59]

We have really swung and missed at so many pitchers, and if you look at the cost per IP or cost per quality IP, my guess is our best additions were the lower cost guys like Strahm, Wacha, Bernardino, Schreiber, Whitlock, Slaten and Wink (if you don't think trading away Beni was costly.)

 

It's worse with SP'ers. Choosing how far to go back is subjective, but clearly adding Pedro, Schilling and Beckett were bold and successful moves. Maybe the downturn started around the Dice-K signing in 2007, in terms of returns on big money spent.

 

One can also ask, "How much is big money spent?" Is the $5M spent on Brad Penny back in 2009 big? It certainly is bigger than $5M spent on Martin Perez or Rich Hill. Here is a likely incomplete list:

 

$52M/6 Dice K '07 (plus massive signing fee)

$83M/5 Lackey '10 (not a bad signing but not great, either)

$68M/4 Beckett '11 (extension and was later traded)

$30M/4 Buchholz '12 (extension)

$27M/2 Dempter '13 (retired after '13)

(traded for Peavy at $29M/2, then traded him the next yr) '13

$10M/1 Masterson '15

(traded for $19M/3 Wade Miley)

$217/7 Price (traded w Betts) '16

$88M/4 Porcello (extension) '16

(traded for Sale at $32M/5) '17 & traded for Pom $4M/1 '17)

$68M/4 Nate (re-signed after trading for him in '18) '19

$145M/5 Sale (extension signed in '19) '20

$7M/1 Perez '20

$10M/1 Richards & $5M/1 Perez in '21

$10M/1 Paxton '22 (w option for '23)

$7M/1 Wacha & $5M/1 Hill in '22

$39M/2 Giolito & Whitlock extension at $19M/4 '24

 

Pen

$12M/2 Jenks & $4M/1 A Bailey '11

$7M/1 Hanrahan & Koji $4M/1 '12

$10M/2 Mujica & $6M/2 Breslow '14

$18M/2 Koji '15

(traded for Kimbrel at $42M/4) '16

(traded for Ottavino at about $8M/1 remaining)

$19M/2 Barnes (extension,) Diekman $8M/2 & $3M/1 Strahm '22

$32M/2 Jansen & $18M/2 Martin '23

$10M/2 L Hendriks '24

[notin]

Of course they are. Big bucks for pitchers who immediately are injured and out for a year or more are just stupid.

 

Not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not.

 

But I’m not sure why people think the Sox were stupid to sign the rarely-injured Giolito and also stupid to trade the frequently-injured Sale…

[Randy Red Sox]

And the Red Sox are idiots because we're paying Giolito $19 million for 0 innings, right?

 

I said all along to not sign Montgomery

[Randy Red Sox]

Have you noticed how well Tyler O'Neill has started?

 

those roids are doing wonders for him but we will see how long he stays on the field

[Randy Red Sox]

The next update to the grade will be when Teel/Anthony/Mayer/etc are all getting their chances.

 

Teel and Anthony aren't exactly lighting it up in Portland. Mayer is doing better

[moonslav59]

Houck

He's doing better the "third time through" than years past, but is still struggling after 75 pitches. .327 1-25, .688 26-50, .308 51-75, but .793 at 76-100. His logs:

We are 4-3 in his 7 starts.

IP -ER -H+BB -K

6.0-0-3-10

6.0-0-6-7

5.2-4-12-2 (3 unearned runs) 2 run HR allowed in 6th

9.0-0-3-9

6.0-2-8-4 (2 of the 3 men he left on base in 7th scored)

6.2-1-4-9

6.0-4-8-5 (had allowed just 1 run going into 7th)

 

OPS Against by innings:

.395 1st

.348 2nd

.644 3rd

.713 4th

.292 5th

.523 6th

1.252 7th

(0.00 in 8th and 9th that one game)

 

Crawford:

He has amazing reverse splits: .405 v LHB & .669 v RHBs. He has only gone past 27 batters once. .529 1st PA, .558 2nd PA & .483 3rd PA. .488 pitch 1-25, .469 pitch 26-50, .675 pitch 51-75 & .460 pitch 76-100.

 

Game logs: (Sox are 3-4 in his starts)

6.0-0-4-7

4.2-1-5-5

5.0-0-6-6

5.2-0-2-6

6.0-3-10-4

7.0-2-6-6

[Hugh2]

Was it Boras' fault, or did he actually get the best deals possible for what was a somewhat underwhelming group of " Big 4" free agents ? Players who were obviously not as much in demand as they thought they would be .

 

Snell left over $60 million on the table. It’s likely the other big free agents left more money on the table only to take lesser deals later on because teams moved on.

 

Boras is good at his job, one bad offseason can’t change the narrative, but he obviously f***ed this offseason up.

[Hugh2]

They’re not exactly laying eggs either and all young for the level. Especially Anthony.

 

None of them were expected to contribute in the bigs this year anyways.

[Bellhorn04]

I said all along to not sign Montgomery

 

He's had two good starts and one horrible one. Let's let the sample grow a bit.

[moonslav59]

As a team, our SP'ers have these numbers:

 

OPS AGainst

 

.551 first time through the line-up as SP

.597 second

.559 third

(only 7 PAs 4th time through at 1.000 due to a homer allowed)

 

.600 first 25 PAs against

.651 26-50

.585 51-75

.566 76-100

(Only 3 PAs over 100 pitches at 2.000)

 

By catcher

.602 w McGuire (Top 6 by PA: Houck, Craw, Wink/Criswell, Piv/Anderson

.614 w Wong (Houck, Craw, Bello, Wink, Whit/Martin)

 

.494 last 7 days

.591 last 14 days

.609 for season

 

.589 v LHB

.630 v RHB

 

.566 Away

.651 Home

 

.576 SP

.651 RP

 

.655 men on base (.746 RISP)

.702 Late & Close

.683 High Leverage

 

[notin]

Teel and Anthony aren't exactly lighting it up in Portland. Mayer is doing better

 

Anthony is 20 and in AA ball…

[moonslav59]

Anthony is 20 and in AA ball…

 

And the season is just a month old.

[moonslav59]

fWAR Leaders (before today's games)

1.6 Houck

1.5 Crawford

1.4 Kirby, Wheeler, Kikuchi

1.3 Suarez, Cease, Ragans, Skubal, S Gray

1.2 Imanaga, Greene

1.1 Glasnow, Castillo, M Miller

1.0 Detmers, Yamo, Ryan

0.9 S Lugo & others

 

2.9 Betts

2.2 Soto

2.1 G Henderson

2.0 Bohm, Altuve

1.9 de la Cruz, Ohtani, S Perez, Kwan

1.7 Tucker

1.6 W Smith, K Marte, Adames

T29th O'Neill 1.2

T40th Abreu 1.0

 

Teams Everyday ALE

3. BAL 7.1

6. NYY 6.4

14. TOR 4.5

18. BOS 3.4

20. TBR 2.7

 

Pitching

2. BOS 5.3

8. BAL 3.7

16. NYY 3.1

27. TBR 1.1

28. TOR 0.8

 

Everyday + Pitching

10.8 BAL

9.5 NYY

8.7 BOS

5.3 TOR

3.8 TBR

 

 

Edited May 5, 2024 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

Don’t look now, but the mighty A’s after 34 games are playing 500 ball. Makes the Red Sox early success look like not that big a deal. Quite a difference in the two teams payroll. As I said earlier baseball is down all across the board.

[Bellhorn04]

Don’t look now, but the mighty A’s after 34 games are playing 500 ball. Makes the Red Sox early success look like not that big a deal. Quite a difference in the two teams payroll. As I said earlier baseball is down all across the board.

 

"Baseball is down all across the board" - what exactly does that mean?

[Old Red]

"Baseball is down all across the board" - what exactly does that mean?

 

Quality of play.

[jad]

Quality of play.

 

What does THAT mean? That the league average W-L is .500? (i.e., like every year)?

[Bellhorn04]

Quality of play.

 

That must be the ultimate eye test.

[Old Red]

That must be the ultimate eye test.

 

Do you honestly think the Red Sox pitching staff all of a sudden is this good? I know some have bought into the Bailey Magic Show, but really. Do you think right now the Minnesota Twins riding a 12 game winning streak is some kind of juggernaut? Or Cleveland for that matter who also has a good record. Ah the old eye test comeback. Judge how you want to, and I’ll judge how I want to, and we’ll both watch the same thing, and we’ll also come out to a different conclusion.