A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Is it really "worrying," or just banter?

 

It's whatever's in the mind of the poster, I guess. To me it seems weird when the team is doing so much better than expected.

[Bellhorn04]

If they are at or near .500, they should sell. IF they are 16 games above .500, they should buy IMO.

 

That leaves a lotta room in between.

[Old Red]

That leaves a lotta room in between.

 

To me it shouldn’t matter so much of what the record is, but where are you in proximity of making the postseason. The last two years they were in striking distance.

[Old Red]

It's whatever's in the mind of the poster, I guess. To me it seems weird when the team is doing so much better than expected.

 

I could understand the selling talk this past offseason, because it was pretty much assumed the team was going to suck, but definitely not now.

[notin]

That leaves a lotta room in between.

 

Right now they are on pace to be 9 games over .500, with a record of 58.5-49.5. So if they keep this up and have 58 or 59 wins, should they buy?

 

To me it also matters who is still healthy, how far out of it they are, and how many teams they need to pass...

Edited May 7, 2024 by notin

[Old Red]

Right now they are one pace to be 9 games over .500, with a record of 58.5-49.5. So if they keep this up and have 58 or 59 wins, should they buy?

 

To me it also matters who is still healthy, how far out of it they are, and how many teams they need to pass...

 

I don’t put much stock in projecting wins especially this early in the season, and so many things can, and have happened already. Predictions didn’t turn out very well the last two seasons, and that was done later in the year. I do agree with the rest though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Right now they are on pace to be 9 games over .500, with a record of 58.5-49.5. So if they keep this up and have 58 or 59 wins, should they buy?

 

To me it also matters who is still healthy, how far out of it they are, and how many teams they need to pass...

 

The Sox were right in the thick of the playoff race through July with a three-man starting rotation of Paxton, Bello and Crawford. Bernardino was their best opener, with Pivetta the top bulk guy.

 

Who knows how far they would've gone if Bloom gave the Cardinals a better package than Texas did for Montgomery and Stratton. The Rangers gave up a couple of Top 100 prospects, but it won them the World Series.

[notin]

I don’t put much stock in projecting wins especially this early in the season, and so many things can, and have happened already. Predictions didn’t turn out very well the last two seasons, and that was done later in the year. I do agree with the rest though.

 

Yes, yes. Lots of things can happen. Winning 59.5 games is actually not one of them.

 

You don’t make projections as a prediction, just for perspective of current performance on a larger scale. I mean, the Sox have played 6 out of 35 games against the last place Angels, which puts them “on pace” to play the Angels 28 times, and we all are fairly certain that isn’t going to happen. But recognizing that they’ve played one-sixth(ish) of their games against that struggling last place team might sway the perspective of some…

[notin]

The Sox were right in the thick of the playoff race through July with a three-man starting rotation of Paxton, Bello and Crawford. Bernardino was their best opener, with Pivetta the top bulk guy.

 

Who knows how far they would've gone if Bloom gave the Cardinals a better package than Texas did for Montgomery and Stratton. The Rangers gave up a couple of Top 100 prospects, but it won them the World Series.

 

I guess I will call it good scouting by the Cardinals. Neither Roby nor Saggese were top 100 prospects anywhere when the deal was made, but both made the BA Top 100 list before the 2024 season…

[Old Red]

Yes, yes. Lots of things can happen. Winning 59.5 games is actually not one of them.

 

You don’t make projections as a prediction, just for perspective of current performance on a larger scale. I mean, the Sox have played 6 out of 35 games against the last place Angels, which puts them “on pace” to play the Angels 28 times, and we all are fairly certain that isn’t going to happen. But recognizing that they’ve played one-sixth(ish) of their games against that struggling last place team might sway the perspective of some…

 

I get that, but all that matters is where the Red Sox are at near the trading deadline, and for me I’ll just wait, and see.

[moonslav59]

It's whatever's in the mind of the poster, I guess. To me it seems weird when the team is doing so much better than expected.

 

We know a lot can happen, between now and the deadline.

 

I'm not sure why speculating about various scenarios equates to "worrying" or being negative.

 

We all know we have beaten just about every topic to death, on this site, and this sort of speculation may seem repetitive and maybe even bothersome to some, but each year brings different dynamics. We sure do talk about trades and non trades made at the deadline, afterwards.

[mvp 78]

It's whatever's in the mind of the poster, I guess. To me it seems weird when the team is doing so much better than expected.

 

3 games above .500 rather than .500?

[mvp 78]

That leaves a lotta room in between.

 

I didn't write those parameters.

[Bellhorn04]

We know a lot can happen, between now and the deadline.

 

I'm not sure why speculating about various scenarios equates to "worrying" or being negative.

 

We all know we have beaten just about every topic to death, on this site, and this sort of speculation may seem repetitive and maybe even bothersome to some, but each year brings different dynamics. We sure do talk about trades and non trades made at the deadline, afterwards.

 

Larry Cook's post didn't even say "if we're out of it at the deadline", it just kind of jumped to the conclusion that we will be. That's what really strikes me as strange.

 

I think we should reserve those discussions until an appropriate time. We all know we have some some deadline-trade assets.

 

Just my take. It ain't changing, any more than yours, or Red's, or mvp's...we're all dug in pretty deep here.

[mvp 78]

Right now they are on pace to be 9 games over .500, with a record of 58.5-49.5. So if they keep this up and have 58 or 59 wins, should they buy?

 

To me it also matters who is still healthy, how far out of it they are, and how many teams they need to pass...

 

If they go 0-2 in ATL, they are suddenly on pace to be 3 games over .500. Are these two games that pivotal? Pacing really means nothing when you are a team that ties its shoes together and keeps getting injured.

[Bellhorn04]

If they go 0-2 in ATL, they are suddenly on pace to be 3 games over .500. Are these two games that pivotal? Pacing really means nothing when you are a team that ties its shoes together and keeps getting injured.

 

And winning at a decent clip in spite of the injuries. Maybe the injury luck will improve.

[Old Red]

3 games above .500 rather than .500?

 

Some teams are down this year like the Jays, Rays, and Houston, so this is not a typical year like was predicted.

[mvp 78]

I guess I will call it good scouting by the Cardinals. Neither Roby nor Saggese were top 100 prospects anywhere when the deal was made, but both made the BA Top 100 list before the 2024 season…

 

Roby: 6.94 ERA, 1.54 WHIP in AA

Saggese: 765 OPS, 102 wRC+, for a 45 fielding 2b/3b (don't the Cards have a bunch of those already???)

[Old Red]

Larry Cook's post didn't even say "if we're out of it at the deadline", it just kind of jumped to the conclusion that we will be. That's what really strikes me as strange.

 

I think we should reserve those discussions until an appropriate time. We all know we have some some deadline-trade assets.

 

Just my take. It ain't changing, any more than yours, or Red's, or mvp's...we're all dug in pretty deep here.

 

Selling has always been a wishful topic on here with a chance to bring in more prospects. The eye candy for most on here.

[mvp 78]

Larry Cook's post didn't even say "if we're out of it at the deadline", it just kind of jumped to the conclusion that we will be. That's what really strikes me as strange.

 

I think we should reserve those discussions until an appropriate time. We all know we have some some deadline-trade assets.

 

Just my take. It ain't changing, any more than yours, or Red's, or mvp's...we're all dug in pretty deep here.

 

I don't know where we'll be at the deadline. It's too hard to say what this team will look like due to all the injuries. If they suck: sell. If they are very good: buy. In between: up for discussion.

[mvp 78]

And winning at a decent clip in spite of the injuries. Maybe the injury luck will improve.

 

Maybe this IS the good injury luck and it's only downhill from here?

[mvp 78]

Some teams are down this year like the Jays, Rays, and Houston, so this is not a typical year like was predicted.

 

Jays have been overrated for a long ass time. Rays are down for now, time to strike. Houston isn't in our division so we can't worry about them.

[mvp 78]

Selling has always been a wishful topic on here with a chance to bring in more prospects. The eye candy for most on here.

 

Don't sell. Just let these guys sit on the bench through September on a losing team then. Sounds great. Why get a return at all?

 

They should have kept Vazquez!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[notin]

I get that, but all that matters is where the Red Sox are at near the trading deadline, and for me I’ll just wait, and see.

 

But you will allow the rest of us to discuss it if we want to?

[notin]

I just wonder if the Sox are in the hunt at the deadline, what prospects that other teams will actually want would be considered the best trade fodder.

 

If we assume Anthony, Mayer and Teel are untouchable, who should the Sox trade?

[notin]

I don't know where we'll be at the deadline. It's too hard to say what this team will look like due to all the injuries. If they suck: sell. If they are very good: buy. In between: up for discussion.

 

Most likely the Sox will be in between, since they have been for the past two years.

 

My biggest question isn’t if they buy, but what they buy with. The sell plans are always obvious…

[mvp 78]

But you will allow the rest of us to discuss it if we want to?

 

Shoe betcha!

[mvp 78]

I just wonder if the Sox are in the hunt at the deadline, what prospects that other teams will actually want would be considered the best trade fodder.

 

If we assume Anthony, Mayer and Teel are untouchable, who should the Sox trade?

 

Paulino, Jordan, Yorke and Bleis.

[mvp 78]

Most likely the Sox will be in between, since they have been for the past two years.

 

My biggest question isn’t if they buy, but what they buy with. The sell plans are always obvious…

 

Expendable guys or Potential Rule 5:

Hickey

Kavadas

Jordan

Yorke

Bastardo

Castro

Gambrell

Lugo

Zeferjahn

[moonslav59]

If we are buyers, and assuming the top 3 are untouchable (I'd add Cespedes to the 3), these guys might bring us a RP'er of 4/5 SP'er and or rental:

 

Best candidates:

Yorke, Jordan, Meidroth, Paulino, Hickey, Mata, Walter, Lugo, McDonough and Romero (selling low)

(Some of these may not be worth much to many teams.)

 

Should we trade pitchers?

Fitts, Wikelman, Perales, Sandlin, E R-C, Dobbins, Guerrero, Monegro, Bastardo, Gambrell, Penrod, Hoppe, Benitez, Olivares, Zeferjahn, I Coffey, Rogers, Paez, Early, Mullins, Cohen

(I would avoid trading any pitchers we feel has a chance.)

 

Too far away?

Bleis, Zanetello, Jo Garcia (IMO, these guys have too much upside to be selling "low," right now.)

Castro, Arias, A Anderson, C Coffey, JH Garcia, Brannon

 

Not worth much, if anything: Dalbec, Kavadas, DHam, Romy

 

Vets:

McGuire (If Teel is ready)

E Valdez (selling low?)

Yoshida with a bunch of cash

 

If we end up being sellers:

All FAs-to-be:

Pivetta

O'Neill

Jansen

Martin

Anderson

 

Possibly 1 more year players:

McGuire

Refsnyer

 

Anyone not part of the 2025 or 2026 and beyond plans.