A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Nick]

On the optimist scale I am probably right there with Moon. Oh i can be that grouchy old man and be cynical.

 

It's possible that couple of our starters will come out of this season as a legit above average mlb starters. Why not? They are all around 27 and approaching prime years.

 

I see that in Kutter and Houck. Maybe Old Red is right. We haven't gone up against enough good teams. But my eye test thinks both are legit starters.

 

Bello is that young guy with perhaps our best hope for an ace. He's in different place than others. Couple of years behind and is on 'track' to 1-3.

 

Whitlock is still a mystery.

 

I'm not sure what to do with Pivetta what with his pending free agency.

 

You can never have enough pitcing, eapecially starting pitching.

 

It's a never ending task. At least Beslow seem to understand that.

[notin]

Now I think you stopped hitting your thumb, and started hitting your noggin. What a bad summation you just spewed out. Show me where I said Felger knows more about anything, because I didn’t. If you are a Merloni fan good for you, but I didn’t know he’s the new spokesperson for baseball. I know he yucks it up on NESN, but that’s about it. He used to be terrible on the old Baseball show on Saturday morning, so I don’t put to much stock in what he says.

 

 

So your defense is “I never mentioned Felger.” So you concede to Mazz.

 

More important is the Congirmation Bias mentality. “The journalists who say stuff I want to believe are credible and know more than you. The ones who disagree with me - I will attack their credentials and therefore promote my position against their knowledge.”

 

Got it…

[notin]

On the optimist scale I am probably right there with Moon. Oh i can be that grouchy old man and be cynical.

 

It's possible that couple of our starters will come out of this season as a legit above average mlb starters. Why not? They are all around 27 and approaching prime years.

 

I see that in Kutter and Houck. Maybe Old Red is right. We haven't gone up against enough good teams. But my eye test thinks both are legit starters.

 

Bello is that young guy with perhaps our best hope for an ace. He's in different place than others. Couple of years behind and is on 'track' to 1-3.

 

Whitlock is still a mystery.

 

I'm not sure what to do with Pivetta what with his pending free agency.

 

You can never have enough pitcing, eapecially starting pitching.

 

It's a never ending task. At least Beslow seem to understand that.

 

 

I’m one of the minority who was optimistic in February and March. Not so overly optimistic as to predict a title. This team is struggling now but as people come back they will improve.

 

They need to extend Pivetta, O’Neill and (as much as it irks me) Cora ASAP…

[Old Red]

So your defense is “I never mentioned Felger.” So you concede to Mazz.

 

More important is the Congirmation Bias mentality. “The journalists who say stuff I want to believe are credible and know more than you. The ones who disagree with me - I will attack their credentials and therefore promote my position against their knowledge.”

 

Got it…

What amazes me is every time I mentioned someone that is taboo on here like Mazz, or Shaugnessy it’s always they don’t know what they are talking about. Bell even said McAdams didn’t know what he was talking about, because they didn’t agree where Monty should be ranked as a pitcher. Mazz has knowledge, and so does Shaugnessy, and most times I would put them against the so called genius on here. Like I said I’ve never been a Merloni fan, and he was the worst of the bunch on the baseball show, but he does have knowledge something you guys won’t admit with Mazz, or Shaugnessy. No you haven’t gotten anything, but a pounded thumb.

[Old Red]

I’m one of the minority who was optimistic in February and March. Not so overly optimistic as to predict a title. This team is struggling now but as people come back they will improve.

 

They need to extend Pivetta, O’Neill and (as much as it irks me) Cora ASAP…

 

I kept saying to wait until March 28 to see what things looked like. I disagree on extending Pivetta, and O’Neill ASAP.

[Bellhorn04]

What amazes me is every time I mentioned someone that is taboo on here like Mazz, or Shaugnessy it’s always they don’t know what they are talking about. Bell even said McAdams didn’t know what he was talking about, because they didn’t agree where Monty should be ranked as a pitcher. Mazz has knowledge, and so does Shaugnessy, and most times I would put them against the so called genius on here. Like I said I’ve never been a Merloni fan, and he was the worst of the bunch on the baseball show, but he does have knowledge something you guys won’t admit with Mazz, or Shaugnessy. No you haven’t gotten anything, but a pounded thumb.

 

I disagreed with McAdam because he said Monty was a number 3 at best or something like that. I thought that was just dumb. But I don't dislike McAdam.

[Old Red]

I disagreed with McAdam because he said Monty was a number 3 at best or something like that. I thought that was just dumb. But I don't dislike McAdam.

 

Did I say you disliked McAdam? You said he didn’t know what he was talking about, because he disagreed with you on Monty. That’s a fact. That happens a lot on here, and that was a good example. When Monty signed with Arizona they said he would fit in as the #3 starter. Not a big deal either way, but it was made a big deal on here. That’s a fact also.

[Randy Red Sox]

I think most people on here felt that the Sox would finish around .500 for the year give or take a few wins or losses either way and that looks to be right where they are headed.

[notin]

What amazes me is every time I mentioned someone that is taboo on here like Mazz, or Shaugnessy it’s always they don’t know what they are talking about. Bell even said McAdams didn’t know what he was talking about, because they didn’t agree where Monty should be ranked as a pitcher. Mazz has knowledge, and so does Shaugnessy, and most times I would put them against the so called genius on here. Like I said I’ve never been a Merloni fan, and he was the worst of the bunch on the baseball show, but he does have knowledge something you guys won’t admit with Mazz, or Shaugnessy. No you haven’t gotten anything, but a pounded thumb.

 

 

It doesn’t matter whether or not Merloni is “the worst of the bunch”, which is a straight up opinion. You’re still ignoring him because he said something you don’t want to believe…

[notin]

I think most people on here felt that the Sox would finish around .500 for the year give or take a few wins or losses either way and that looks to be right where they are headed.

 

Most people took the under. Some saying they’d “be lucky to win 70”…

[Old Red]

It doesn’t matter whether or not Merloni is “the worst of the bunch”, which is a straight up opinion. You’re still ignoring him because he said something you don’t want to believe…

 

As usual you are wrong again. It has nothing to do with Merloni. If Yaz came out today, and said the same thing Merloni said it wouldn’t change MY opinion. My opinion is my opinion, and it’s not going to change like it, or not.

[Bellhorn04]

Most people took the under. Some saying they’d “be lucky to win 70”…

 

There are always going to be extremists. I think high 70's was probably the average pick. I went with 80.

[Bellhorn04]

If the season ended today, the Sox would be out of the playoffs, despite having the best ERA in baseball, and the best ERA+ by miles!

 

It really is a funny game.

[notin]

There are always going to be extremists. I think high 70's was probably the average pick. I went with 80.

 

I didn’t really ever give a number.

 

I just said the pitching would be better than expected, which is true so far. And that they would make the playoffs if the original starters gave them 700 or 750 IP. Not sure which I said, and probably said each at one time.

 

Of course that was back when the starters included Giolito along with Bello, Pivetta, Crawford and Houck. So it’s not very likely that crew comes even close to either total…

[Bellhorn04]

I didn’t really ever give a number.

 

I just said the pitching would be better than expected, which is true so far. And that they would make the playoffs if the original starters gave them 700 or 750 IP. Not sure which I said, and probably said each at one time.

 

Of course that was back when the starters included Giolito along with Bello, Pivetta, Crawford and Houck. So it’s not very likely that crew comes even close to either total…

 

The injuries make our pitching stats (157 ERA+!!!) even crazier than they already are.

[Randy Red Sox]

Most people took the under. Some saying they’d “be lucky to win 70”…

 

i only saw 1 or 2 who predicted 70 wins. most were right around .500. That has been the problem in my view for the last several years. Never really bad enough for a total revamp but never good enough to truly contend. John Henry has walked this tightrope for the last 3 years thinking RSN will buy it. I DO NOT !!

[Bellhorn04]

i only saw 1 or 2 who predicted 70 wins. most were right around .500. That has been the problem in my view for the last several years. Never really bad enough for a total revamp but never good enough to truly contend. John Henry has walked this tightrope for the last 3 years thinking RSN will buy it. I DO NOT !!

 

If they miss the playoffs again this year, it's another failure, it's as simple as that, IMHO.

[Duran Is The Man]

Most people took the under. Some saying they’d “be lucky to win 70”…

 

i think i said 72-90. and i would love to have that backwards. and maybe they'll win 90, but....it's still early.

[moonslav59]

It means the Red Sox are doing better than he expected, and doing it using the Black Magic of Analytics as opposed to hoarding star players.

 

There is another explanation: maybe the Sox were not really as bad as we thought, the last 2 years- pitchers, especially.

 

Either answer could be correct, but maybe it's somewhere in between.

[moonslav59]

And you tell other posters they're wrong wrong wrong all the time. So let's not get all sensitive.

 

The "wrong, wrong, WRONG" is a direct quote made several times, mostly directed at me.

 

Baseball is a sport that is impossible to predict or project. Everybody gets things wrong, unless they never make predictions of give opinions.

 

Giving suggestions is another story.

[Randy Red Sox]

If they miss the playoffs again this year, it's another failure, it's as simple as that, IMHO.

 

get ready for another failure

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You did say baseball is down across the board. So now that doesn’t refer to the talent levels of the players?

 

I assumed he was referring to board members -- and our own diminished baseball skills: typing quips, resisting remotes, spectating with both eyes closed...

 

Re. MLB batting woes -- the infestation of sweepers calls for adjustments contrary to the approach that landed most ballplayers in the majors. The hardest thing to do in sports is hit a baseball, but anyone who makes it has to be able to hit a fastball. However, adjusting to other types of pitching determines how long they'll actually stay in the big leagues.

 

The answer to connecting with offspeed junk or even sharp breaking stuff isn't to try to hit farther or even harder. If I still had my peak hand-eye coordination and muscle mass, I'd be looking at long, daily BP offerings, watching spins, and cutting down my swing with a focus on sweet spots and the opposite field... taking the breaking the other way.

[moonslav59]

I assumed he was referring to board members -- and our own diminished baseball skills: typing quips, resisting remotes, spectating with both eyes closed...

 

Re. MLB batting woes -- the infestation of sweepers calls for adjustments contrary to the approach that landed most ballplayers in the majors. The hardest thing to do in sports is hit a baseball, but anyone who makes it has to be able to hit a fastball. However, adjusting to other types of pitching determines how long they'll actually stay in the big leagues.

 

The answer to connecting with offspeed junk or even sharp breaking stuff isn't to try to hit farther or even harder. If I still had my peak hand-eye coordination and muscle mass, I'd be looking at long, daily BP offerings, watching spins, and cutting down my swing with a focus on sweet spots and the opposite field... taking the breaking the other way.

 

You always crack me up.

 

Thanks for being such a bright spot in an otherwise mostly bleak environment, especially during losing stretches.

[moonslav59]

Before today's game...

 

Despite the losing streak, we are still in the thick of the early WC race...

 

22-11 BAL (ALE)

21-12 CLE (ALC)

18-15 SEA (ALW)

 

22-13 NYY (WC1)

19-13 MIN (TWC2)

20-14 KCR (TWC2)

 

18-15 DET -1.5

18-16 BOS -2.0

18-16 TEX -2.0

17-17 OAK -3.0

16-18 TBR & TOR -4.0

 

We have losing records vs just 3 teams (0-3 BAL, 0-2 MIN, 2-5 CLE)

.500 vs SEA (2-2)

Plus vs 5 teams (3-0 v PIT & OAK, 4-2 v LAA and 2-1 v CHC & SFG)

 

To those who say we have played mostly easy teams, so far, in some ways I agree, but this is interesting: team records against everyone, except BOS:

 

19-7 CLE

19-11 BAL

19-12 CHC

17-13 MIN

16-13 SEA

17-14 OAK

 

15-16 PIT

14-17 SFG

10-17 LAA

 

Some of these teams may be playing over their heads, but these non-Sox records look pretty impressive, right now.

[moonslav59]

OPS Leaders after today:

 

1.089 Refsnyder

1.044 O'Neill (9 HRs)

.950 Wong (5 Hrs and 14 RBIs are both 3rd on team))

.917 Devers

.857 Casas (IL- 6 HRs)

.854 Abreu

.737 Duran (15 RBIs is second on team & 9 SBs leads)

.736 McGuire

.736 Yoshida (Injured)

.617 Story (IL-all year)

.608 DHam

.598 Rafaela (19 RBIs leads team and is 40th in MLB!)

.563 D Smith

.453 Valdez (AAA now)

.377 Dalbec (AAA now)

.375 Grissom

.277 Cooper

.000 Short

 

[moonslav59]

Top 13 Sox pitchers by IP (Jansen is 14th and I booted Joely)

 

0.64 Bernardino (0.79 WHIP)

0.82 Pivetta (0.82 WHIP)

0.95 Slaten (0.68 WHIP)

 

1.20 Weissert (0.93 WHIP)

1.56 Crawford (1.07)

1.69 Jansen (1.22)

1.74 Criswell (1.06)

1.99 Houck (0.97)

 

3.04 Bello (1.05)

3.47 Wink (1.54)

 

4.86 Anderson (1.14)

5.11 Martin (1.38)

 

K/BB

13.0 Pivetta

7.5 Slaten

6.6 Houck

6.5 Martin

5.3 Weissert

4.0 Criswell

3.7 Bello

3.1 Crawford

 

Pitches /IP

13.2 Slaten

14.0 Bernardino

14.2 Bosser

14.5 Houck

15.4 Weissert

15.6 Crawford

15.8 Pivetta

 

Edited May 5, 2024 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Big win for the Sox, who now have to brace themselves to play a pair vs. a Braves franchise that called Boston home for 77 years (starting in 1876)... but then fled Beantown -- 71 seasons ago.

 

Compared to the inconsistent Red Sox, everyone knows how much better the Great Braves are: Atlanta has one more entire win than Boston! While the poor Sox only lead the majors in WAR for pitching staffs and outfielders, the balanced Braves with all their young stars signed to longterm team-friendly contracts sport a superior edge in the most important department:

 

Defensive Efficiency: Atlanta .708, Boston .707.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Big win for the Sox, who now have to brace themselves to play a pair vs. a Braves franchise that called Boston home for 77 years (starting in 1876)... but then fled Beantown -- 71 seasons ago.

 

Compared to the inconsistent Red Sox, everyone knows how much better the Great Braves are: Atlanta has one more entire win than Boston! While the poor Sox only lead the majors in WAR for pitching staffs and outfielders, the balanced Braves with all their young stars signed to longterm team-friendly contracts sport a superior edge in the most important department:

 

Defensive Efficiency: Atlanta .708, Boston .707.

 

Of course, Atlanta's starting rotation is led by veteran ace Chris Sale, the Braves' top winner and WHIP leader.

 

Sale is on pace for another season of 30 games started, which all Red Sox fans will remember he made for Boston the past four years from 2020 to 2023... COMBINED.

 

But at age 35, he'll never get hurt or miss another start again. Is there even any doubt, that if the Braves somehow falter, that Philadelphia farm burner Dave Dombrowski will trade some top prospects to pick up Sale for the stretch drive? Hold on... Chaim Bloom just called DD and told him to wait until the last seconds of the trade deadli-- too late!

[notin]

Big win for the Sox, who now have to brace themselves to play a pair vs. a Braves franchise that called Boston home for 77 years (starting in 1876)... but then fled Beantown -- 71 seasons ago.

 

Compared to the inconsistent Red Sox, everyone knows how much better the Great Braves are: Atlanta has one more entire win than Boston! While the poor Sox only lead the majors in WAR for pitching staffs and outfielders, the balanced Braves with all their young stars signed to longterm team-friendly contracts sport a superior edge in the most important department:

 

Defensive Efficiency: Atlanta .708, Boston .707.

 

The Red Sox will never do well with Defensive Efficiency. Never.

 

It has nothing to do with their players. The stat is stacked against them. DE is calculated by (number of non-strikeout putouts / balls in play). Very difficult to excel at this stat when your ball park has a 23 foot tall wall, and balls hit between 9’ and 22’ 11” on it are considered in play with no out recorded.

 

At this point in the season, the Sox have only a handful of home games, so the Green Monster has not sabotaged the DE for the Sox to its fullest just yet…

[mvp 78]

Big win for the Sox, who now have to brace themselves to play a pair vs. a Braves franchise that called Boston home for 77 years (starting in 1876)... but then fled Beantown -- 71 seasons ago.

 

Compared to the inconsistent Red Sox, everyone knows how much better the Great Braves are: Atlanta has one more entire win than Boston! While the poor Sox only lead the majors in WAR for pitching staffs and outfielders, the balanced Braves with all their young stars signed to longterm team-friendly contracts sport a superior edge in the most important department:

 

Defensive Efficiency: Atlanta .708, Boston .707.

 

If ATL is almost as bad as the Sox defensively, the Sox have a chance!