A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

Amazing.

 

It wouldn't have mattered.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't say I'm elated, long way to go before judging properly yet (drafting, trade deadlines, see how his trades/moves play out in the long term, development, etc), but early signs are encouraging. His moves are mostly paying off and the pitching set up he has brought in is quite something.

 

I do wonder if Bailey fancies himself a a manager and he's the one who takes over from Cora next year, with pitching continuing to be the focus.

 

Crazy to think we're 14 and 3 in games we don't make an error. This team has some real potential.

 

I'm personally glad we didn't sign Monty (now). Let these kids (and pitching coaches) shine.

 

We all know things can change on a dime, in this game, but yes, it's okay to be encouraged or optimistic about not only the future but 2024, as well.

 

Brez and Bailey have gotten a lot of props, as well they should, for now, but the elephant in the room is also giving props to the GMs who laid this foundation out for them. DD got a lot of grief for "emptying" and "leaving the farm barren." About half or more of these guys leading us to wins are his acquisitions, or players he did not trade when highly ranked. While the next GM made some unforgivable blunders, quite a few of his guys are now looking pretty good, too.

 

Maybe this is all a house of cards, and we will be hearing the same rants and rages, we've heard since 2019, with a short respite in 2021. I hope not.

 

So far, our rotation and rotation depth has led this team. With 4 of the original top 6 SP'ers on the IL, this is nothing short of astounding. Pivetta struggled in his first rehab game, last night, but there is some hope that when 2-3 of these guys comeback, our pen will get a jolt, as well as the rotation. (I know we've heard this rant over the last few years, as we waited and waited for Sale, Nate, Wacha and others to come off the IL, but maybe this year will see a more positive outcome.)

 

I had hoped this offense would be top 6-8, but top 10 might be asking too much, especially with Story and Casas on the IL for all or much of 2024. We've seen some boosts from guys like Wong, Abreu, Ref and O'Neill, but we will need others to do better to have a real chance.

 

I hope the D improves with Grissom at 2B and Rafaela/Short at SS. Reyes is gone, and Valdez is back in AAA. While Duran in CF is not ideal, Abreu and O'Neill have looked fine on D.

 

We are at the 1/5th point of the season. Sample sizes are still small, but they are getting close to being something we can begin to count on continuing.

 

Crawford and Houck's ability to start 28+ games may be the biggest key to this team's success. 24+ from Bello and Pivetta would be a great boost. I hope we end the Whitlock as SP'er experiment and just go with Criswell or add another SP'er, if he drops off.

 

4/5th of a season is a long time. A lot can happen, but Brez and Bailey seem to be more proactive and insightful.

[Hitch]

 

Brez and Bailey have gotten a lot of props, as well they should, for now, but the elephant in the room is also giving props to the GMs who laid this foundation out for them. DD got a lot of grief for "emptying" and "leaving the farm barren." About half or more of these guys leading us to wins are his acquisitions, or players he did not trade when highly ranked. While the next GM made some unforgivable blunders, quite a few of his guys are now looking pretty good, too.

 

Absolutely. This is why I rarely get involved with discussions around which GM is the best/who is good/who is bad.

 

The conversation is always far too shallow. Ben, Dave, Chaim, all have their flaws and all have their strengths and it takes years and years (and even then mostly incomplete) to get a good idea of their legacies and effects on their clubs. And they're always, AWLAYS intertwined with each other.

[Bellhorn04]

Absolutely. This is why I rarely get involved with discussions around which GM is the best/who is good/who is bad.

 

The conversation is always far too shallow. Ben, Dave, Chaim, all have their flaws and all have their strengths and it takes years and years (and even then mostly incomplete) to get a good idea of their legacies and effects on their clubs. And they're always, AWLAYS intertwined with each other.

 

Hey, we all overreact in some ways and this is the place to do it. I just read a post by you speculating about Bailey being our manager next year.

[notin]

Hey, we all overreact in some ways and this is the place to do it. I just read a post by you speculating about Bailey being our manager next year.

 

I think he should be governor of Massachusetts.

 

I might not give as much credit to Bailey as many others, simply because I spent all off-season thinking this staff was better than most people thought. Granted, Giolito fit into that, and I’ve never been keen on Whitlock or Houck starting. But I liked Crawford and Pivetta more than most.

 

So I think I give more credit to the pitchers, despite believing Bailey has certainly been helpful…

[Bellhorn04]

I think he should be governor of Massachusetts.

 

I might not give as much credit to Bailey as many others, simply because I spent all off-season thinking this staff was better than most people thought. Granted, Giolito fit into that, and I’ve never been keen on Whitlock or Houck starting. But I liked Crawford and Pivetta more than most.

 

So I think I give more credit to the pitchers, despite believing Bailey has certainly been helpful…

 

We have a 2.58 team ERA compared to 4.52 last year. The man is worth 2 runs a game!

[moonslav59]

Absolutely. This is why I rarely get involved with discussions around which GM is the best/who is good/who is bad.

 

The conversation is always far too shallow. Ben, Dave, Chaim, all have their flaws and all have their strengths and it takes years and years (and even then mostly incomplete) to get a good idea of their legacies and effects on their clubs. And they're always, AWLAYS intertwined with each other.

 

Current players and the GM who acquired them:

 

Correct me, if I got some wrong.)

 

Ben:

Devers (not traded by DD)

 

DD:

Houck

Crawford

Bello

Duran

Rafaela

Mata, Murphy, Walter, Dalbec

Wikelman, Perales

 

Bloom:

Pivetta

Whitlock

Abreu

Wong

McGuire

Wink

Bernardino

Refsnyder

Valdez

Story, Yoshida, Jansen, Martin

Kelly, DHam

 

Breslow:

Slaten

Grissom

Criswell

Weissert

O'Neill, Giolito, Hendriks

Romy G, Anderson, Uwasawa, Campbell, Booser, Horn, Cooper, Sort, D Smith, Heineman

 

Prospects with no MLB experience and not on 40:

(not listed here: 4 Rafaela, 7 Abreu, 8 Wikelman, 10 Perales, 20 Slaten, 30 DHam)

 

DD:

15. Castro

19. Paulino

Guerrero

 

Bloom:

1. Anthony

2. Mayer

3. Teel

5. Bleis

6. Cespedes

11. Yorke

13. Zanetello

14. Meidroth

16. Jordan

17. Hickey

18. Jo Garcia

Monegro, K Campbell, E R-C, Dobbins, Arias, A Anderson, Romero, Gambrell, Penrod

 

Breslow:

9. Fitts

12. Sandlin

Benitez, Olivares, Judice

 

 

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

After the 2017 season, Dustin Pedroia underwent a knee surgery that essentially marked the end of his career. Since then, Red Sox second basemen (35 players) rank 26th in wRC+, 26th in defense, and 27th in WAR at the position. Hopefully today starts a new era of stability there.

 

For all the LOVERS out there in TalkSox land.

[mvp 78]

Hey, we all overreact in some ways and this is the place to do it. I just read a post by you speculating about Bailey being our manager next year.

 

Keep him as pitching coach, but double his pay.

[mvp 78]

Current players and the GM who acquired them:

 

Correct me, if I got some wrong.)

 

Ben:

Devers (not traded by DD)

 

 

Only one guy left in the organization who was here in 2015? That sucks!

[mvp 78]

Sox OF:

3rd in fWAR

2nd in OPS

3rd in DRS

[notin]

Only one guy left in the organization who was here in 2015? That sucks!

 

How many players do you think are still with the same organization since 2015?

 

I’m sure there’s a few but I bet not that many…

[moonslav59]

Only one guy left in the organization who was here in 2015? That sucks!

 

Very amazing, although that was 8+ years ago. (Not even a Ben prospect left!)

[Hitch]

Hey, we all overreact in some ways and this is the place to do it. I just read a post by you speculating about Bailey being our manager next year.

 

Actually, I wondered if Bailey might be speculating about it.

 

#Bailception.

[mvp 78]

Very amazing, although that was 8+ years ago. (Not even a Ben prospect left!)

 

Some lean prospect years 2012-15:

Dubon

Beeks

Kopech

Chavis

Benintendi

Logan Allen

Guerra

DHern

Devers

Bazardo

Castillo

Moncada

Espinoza

 

Time will tell if DD's years provided better results.

[mvp 78]

Actually, I wondered if Bailey might be speculating about it.

 

#Bailception.

 

I assumed the next manager would be Tek, or is that just fan theory?

[moonslav59]

Some lean prospect years 2012-15:

Dubon

Beeks

Kopech

Chavis

Benintendi

Logan Allen

Guerra

DHern

Devers

Bazardo

Castillo

Moncada

Espinoza

 

Time will tell if DD's years provided better results.

 

Only about a handful are still in the majors.

 

DD's look to already be passing or near passing Ben's.

[mvp 78]

Only about a handful are still in the majors.

 

DD's look to already be passing or near passing Ben's.

 

There's time for some of DD's to flame out. I'm withholding judgement for now.

[mvp 78]

@JoeyCopponi

Among qualified rookies, Wilyer Abreu ranks

 

1st in AVG (.313)

2nd in OBP (.391)

4th in OPS (.904)

1st in 2B (8)

6th in RBI (12)

5th in BB% (.120)

2nd in XBH (11)

 

Wilyer started off slow, but has really turned it around.

[mvp 78]

Crawford - 1st in fWAR, 5th ERA, 53rd xFIP

Houck - 2nd in fWAR (tied), 8th ERA, 4th xFIP

[Randy Red Sox]

Anyone notice how Chris Sale has done so far this year?

[vegasbob]

@redsoxstats

After the 2017 season, Dustin Pedroia underwent a knee surgery that essentially marked the end of his career. Since then, Red Sox second basemen (35 players) rank 26th in wRC+, 26th in defense, and 27th in WAR at the position. Hopefully today starts a new era of stability there.

 

For all the LOVERS out there in TalkSox land.

 

Are you referring top the guy who was almost here, but still hasn't played one inning yet?

[mvp 78]

Are you referring top the guy who was almost here, but still hasn't played one inning yet?

 

The Twitter account @RedSoxStats was clearly referring to Grissom, yes. I reiterated that with the LOVERS comment since anyone that has even been remotely accepting of the Sale trade has been painted as an unabashed lover of Vaughn Grissom for some reason.

[mvp 78]

Anyone notice how Chris Sale has done so far this year?

 

Have you noticed how well Tyler O'Neill has started?

[Duran Is The Man]

@JoeyCopponi

Among qualified rookies, Wilyer Abreu ranks

 

1st in AVG (.313)

2nd in OBP (.391)

4th in OPS (.904)

1st in 2B (8)

6th in RBI (12)

5th in BB% (.120)

2nd in XBH (11)

 

Wilyer started off slow, but has really turned it around.

 

Abreu has single handedly changed my Bloom grade from an F to a D.

[mvp 78]

Abreu has single handedly changed my Bloom grade from an F to a D.

 

The next update to the grade will be when Teel/Anthony/Mayer/etc are all getting their chances.

[notin]

The next update to the grade will be when Teel/Anthony/Mayer/etc are all getting their chances.

 

Or when Whitlock and Pivetta come back. Whichever comes first...

[notin]

@redsoxstats

After the 2017 season, Dustin Pedroia underwent a knee surgery that essentially marked the end of his career. Since then, Red Sox second basemen (35 players) rank 26th in wRC+, 26th in defense, and 27th in WAR at the position. Hopefully today starts a new era of stability there.

 

For all the LOVERS out there in TalkSox land.

 

Since 2017, only Story (2.9 fWAR) and Brock Holt (2.2 fWAR) have given the Sox more than 1 win above replacement at 2B. Only Arroyo, Iglesias, Kinsler, Urias and Taylor Motter have positive fWAR. Fangraphs does list 35 players at the position, but that include 6 innings from Betts, 3 innings from Devers and 2 innings from Swihart...

[mvp 78]

Or when Whitlock and Pivetta come back. Whichever comes first...

 

Not sure why Pivetta coming back would change how I feel about Bloom?

[Maxbialystock]

A failure by Boras sure, but we don’t know how big a failure, because we don’t know what was out there for offers. There was a reported offer by the Yankees to Snell for $150M.

 

Ahem. Jordan Montgomery is getting paid $25M this year for pitching--so far--a total of 16 innings with an ERA of 5.63. Forget what Boras did or failed to do. The Diamondbacks are idiots.