Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
And therein lies the problem, we sign free agents and evaluate them for what they've done but that often does align with what they will do. Some guys just fall off a cliff. We have our own guys who fit the bill too. -
I wonder if we can get Bo Lowrance for Jarren Duran from the Dodgers in an offseason trade. They might be one of the teams in the market for an outfielder, there'd be little pressure on him there in a lineup with nothing but all stars and Lowrawnce would be a big help in replenishing the system with young talent.
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A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I was on the Swanson train an opt out is player friendly, which likely lowers the AAV a guy is willing to accept. To entice Bogaerts to sign without a player opt out he would likely of been making 30 per year instead of 25 and of paid for the another 4 years. If that was the case, he'd at this point in time be on contract for another 2 years and probably put up a 32.1 WAR during the term of that contract. Which would make him worth about 2/3 of the contract. Honestly, probably worth it for a homegrown player and certainly worth more than Trevory Story has been. -
A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Baez before he hit FA had 31/29/34 HR's. If he was a FA this year or last year every commenter on this board would be saying we should sign him. -
A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I remember predicting an extension of around 217/8 and not a soul thought he could come anywhere near touching that. But that just seems to always be the MO. We constantly underpredict two things. A. The cost of free agents, and the cost of trade acquasitions. Just as a general practice we should realize any FA is going to cost much more than what we think they will. But the Bogaerts deal was just stupid on top of stupid. It might go down in history as one of the worse contracts. -
A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think it's blatantly obviously not signing Xander and making another move for SS was the right move. I think it's ALSO blatantly obviously that the corresponding move to sign Trevor Story was not the right move. Certianly not in hindsight. -
Both sides fighting for more money.....fans will still pay more no matter who wins.
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Millionaires vs. Billionaires......Do I have to take a side?
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This has been the trend for a few years now. Which is why I've always been a big advocate of those early exensions before guys get too costly. I'm not sure if the Sox stink at identifying who to extend, or if they're just cursed because lately it feels like you need to flip a coin when they give someone money. I haven't given up on Anthony yet though. But the point is if you want to bring in high end talent, for the most part you either have to draft and develop it or trade for it. And we don't have much for trade chips...unless we want to start dealing from our MLB pitchers.
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I like Duran, and I hope he turns it around for this team next year. But I really can't blame anyone for thinking it may be time to move on from him, it might even be what they should do.
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The thing about Duran is even if he couldn’t play at a starters caliber he can still be a good 4th outfielder and a baserunner. I think that, plus the upside that he performs wells again next year is worth more than what we’d get back in a trade. The time to trade him was a year ago
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Yeah but they will make it, it's all about how they play once they get in. I understand the backlash this comment may get, and I certainly agree with the anxiety created around this team with it's fanbase by not performing well. But absolutely no one will care how they played the last few weeks if they get past the first series. This should make everyone feel a little bit more optimistic. There is a much, much higher correlation between postseasn success and regular season play vs. .500 teams than there is vs. postseason success and record the last month of the season. Re-read that. It's a statistical fact that teams who beat good teams in the regular season go further than teams who didn't do so but won more games in September. Of the 12 teams slated to make the playoffs today, the Sox have the 4th best record vs. .500 teams and the 2nd best in the American league. I'd certainly feel much better about this team if they're winning more games this last week and a half. But they really do just need to get in healthy.
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I see your point and I think I agree. While people certainly may have an affinity to be more pessimisstic or optimistic its very natural for people to react to bad performances "HE'S A BUM!!!!" but not exactly really think that about him. That's fair. I withdrawl my complaint.
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Pointing out the under performers on any team does nothing to dispell the fact that people will inherently find something to complain about, actually it reinforces it. The ideal was that some people just can't be happy. It's an online sports forum, I get it, and to be fair this team deserves critique. They can certainly use more power.
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Ok but this isn't a new trend unique to 2026. The Sox won 108 games in 2018 and people still complained about "bums"
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Everyone who isn't a perennial all star is a bum to some people.
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Things that are generally true aren't always true. Big guys are generally thought to have the body to withstand the rigors of a full season for the long haul, but on the other hand big guys get hurt too and little guys like Pedro Martinez have HOF careers. Rules have exceptions, doesn't make following them bad practice.
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I don't regret that trade one bit, I was a little sad at the time because I love high ceiling arms, despite their whif rates (no pun intended), but it was a good trade. EDIT: this is why I like Valera a lot too, I'm well aware of the risks but I still think his ceiling is sky high.
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I disagree, I'm not taking anything away from 9 innings pitched from a rookie pitcher.
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That seems pretty standard, to develop all highly regarded prospects as starters, even the ones you think will end up in the bullpen. It makes sense, giving them the reps to work on their pitches. But at some point you have to transition bullpen guys to the bullpen, and I'm just not sure waiting for a guy to fail at the MLB level and being out of options is the way to go.
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9 IP, that effectively tells us nothing. Yeah, it stinks not having options but I could care less what 9 innings say. He's 23 with all the talent in the world. Nothing in life is guranteed but he's still on the learning curve. He could just as easily be an all star next year.
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I would trade him for the next Bennet any day, but I like Valera and his potential too. FWIW Perales is still a young 23. I'm going to be interested to see what he does next year.
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The reliever risk is real and very high. One thing I wish saw more from the Red Sox is to move guys to the bullpen when it is likely to obvious that is where their best place on a MLB team is. Still, I think Phillips gets at least one more full year on the mound next year.
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Let me critique myself, Devers was arguably one of the worse defenders at 3B, he's probably more like slightly below average at 1B. EDIT: It's still his first year, lets rehash this conversation 1/2 way into 2027 and see what his 1B defense looks like. Maybe he gets better at scooping balls.
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What do you base "he seems adeqiate at 1B" on? a few DRS? So you like BA over Fangraphs? which along with statcast have him as a bad defender. I know statcast was actually using technological measuring tools like radar, which they've literally evolved past military grade dopler radar and use a lot of propriertary high tracking systems and high speed cameras that they've installed into every single ballpark to track data. Honestly, I think that s*** is probably always going to be more accurate than the "eye test" which to be honest.......I haven't seen many Raffy Devers games since he left Boston and I'd be willing to bet everyone in this room is in the same boat. It's a blend of advanced physics, math and advanced computer systems so I do apologize that I can't break in their private labs and read you code. It's not a simple equation, they're using I'm also sorry that Raffy just isn't that good at 1B.
