A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

The injuries make our pitching stats (157 ERA+!!!) even crazier than they already are.

 

If the injuries continue, there's zero chance the ERA+ sticks around for the full season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox will never do well with Defensive Efficiency. Never.

 

It has nothing to do with their players. The stat is stacked against them. DE is calculated by (number of non-strikeout putouts / balls in play). Very difficult to excel at this stat when your ball park has a 23 foot tall wall, and balls hit between 9’ and 22’ 11” on it are considered in play with no out recorded.

 

At this point in the season, the Sox have only a handful of home games, so the Green Monster has not sabotaged the DE for the Sox to its fullest just yet…

 

At least Cora won't let Yoshida play left this season, so not many balls can soar past him and get stuck in a light, two feet off the ground.

 

There's a reason that's never happened before in a ballpark over one hundred years old...

[mvp 78]

Now I think you stopped hitting your thumb, and started hitting your noggin. What a bad summation you just spewed out. Show me where I said Felger knows more about anything, because I didn’t. If you are a Merloni fan good for you, but I didn’t know he’s the new spokesperson for baseball. I know he yucks it up on NESN, but that’s about it. He used to be terrible on the old Baseball show on Saturday morning, so I don’t put to much stock in what he says.

 

"I don't really want to listen to a guy who actually used to play the game professionally, I'd rather listen to the guys who get paid to be shitstirrers like CHB."

 

Yup, that tracks.

[moonslav59]

If the injuries continue, there's zero chance the ERA+ sticks around for the full season.

 

Agreed.

 

This has happened, before. In recent years, we did okay with openers and pen games for a stretch, then the wheels fell off.

 

We need Bello & Pivetta back.

 

When Whit comes back, I hope he goes to the pen, and Criswell can keep this up.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

This has happened, before. In recent years, we did okay with openers and pen games for a stretch, then the wheels fell off.

 

We need Bello & Pivetta back.

 

When Whit comes back, I hope he goes to the pen, and Criswell can keep this up.

 

I think it may also take a few start for these guys to get back up to speed. April was most likely the high watermark for the pitching. Unfortunately, it wasn't super great for the offense.

[moonslav59]

At least Cora won't let Yoshida play left this season, so not many balls can soar past him and get stuck in a light, two feet off the ground.

 

There's a reason that's never happened before in a ballpark over one hundred years old...

 

I really felt our defense would be significantly better than 28th to 30th, like it was in '23.

 

4 reasons:

No Yoshida in LF

Story at SS

Grissom at 2B

Improved D by returning players like Wong/McGuire, Casas and maybe Duran.

[moonslav59]

I think it may also take a few start for these guys to get back up to speed. April was most likely the high watermark for the pitching. Unfortunately, it wasn't super great for the offense.

 

Yes, and now maybe the O can carry the team as the staff comes back down to earth a bit.

 

The D might improve with grissom at 2B and Rafaela/Short at SS. I'm not thrilled with Duran in CF, but he looks better than '22 and earlier, out there.

[Nick]

Agreed.

 

This has happened, before. In recent years, we did okay with openers and pen games for a stretch, then the wheels fell off.

 

We need Bello & Pivetta back.

 

When Whit comes back, I hope he goes to the pen, and Criswell can keep this up.

 

Whitlock was extended as a starter, not as a reliever. Management will give Whitlock every opportunity to become a starter until the wheels come off.

 

When there's shortage of starters, why would you not give him that opportunity?

[Nick]

Yes, and now maybe the O can carry the team as the staff comes back down to earth a bit.

 

The D might improve with grissom at 2B and Rafaela/Short at SS. I'm not thrilled with Duran in CF, but he looks better than '22 and earlier, out there.

 

Duran is just fine in CF. He's improved. He at least has make up speed to correct his initial reaction. Not perfect but he's our centerfielder until we find a shortstop.

[Nick]

I'm impressed with Grissom's size and his bat to ball skills.

 

It's interesting to hear Cora still speaking highly of Valez's offensive skill set. Cora was right on about Abreu. He seem to want Valez to be a super utility guy.

[mvp 78]

Yes, and now maybe the O can carry the team as the staff comes back down to earth a bit.

 

The D might improve with grissom at 2B and Rafaela/Short at SS. I'm not thrilled with Duran in CF, but he looks better than '22 and earlier, out there.

 

The defense should settle down. The offense has just been too all or nothing so far.

[mvp 78]

Whitlock was extended as a starter, not as a reliever. Management will give Whitlock every opportunity to become a starter until the wheels come off.

 

When there's shortage of starters, why would you not give him that opportunity?

 

I think Bloom was ready to have him in the pen fulltime as he was put through the ringer with Whitlock previously. Breslow needs to see it for himself. For 2024, we're getting the Whitlock as a starter experiment. I hope it works. He has the stuff for it, but his body doesn't seem like it wants to hold up.

[Duran Is The Man]

Of course, Atlanta's starting rotation is led by veteran ace Chris Sale, the Braves' top winner and WHIP leader.

 

Sale is on pace for another season of 30 games started, which all Red Sox fans will remember he made for Boston the past four years from 2020 to 2023... COMBINED.

 

But at age 35, he'll never get hurt or miss another start again. Is there even any doubt, that if the Braves somehow falter, that Philadelphia farm burner Dave Dombrowski will trade some top prospects to pick up Sale for the stretch drive? Hold on... Chaim Bloom just called DD and told him to wait until the last seconds of the trade deadli-- too late!

 

you think the Braves would take Sale for Story? i'm game.

[mvp 78]

Duran is just fine in CF. He's improved. He at least has make up speed to correct his initial reaction. Not perfect but he's our centerfielder until we find a shortstop.

 

Per Statcast, he's 21st in OF reaction, which is better than Verdugo and Abreu. What he's not good at is his route: 84th in the league. His great speed and quick reaction time overcomes his bad instincts and routing to the ball.

[Duran Is The Man]

Per Statcast, he's 21st in OF reaction, which is better than Verdugo and Abreu. What he's not good at is his route: 84th in the league. His great speed and quick reaction time overcomes his bad instincts and routing to the ball.

 

holy s***....they've got a stat for everything. 84th huh? probably not the best guy to ask for directions then.

[mvp 78]

holy s***....they've got a stat for everything. 84th huh? probably not the best guy to ask for directions then.

 

I just wish Statcast went back to the Coco Crap days so that my eye test could be confirmed on his overratedness.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Per Statcast, he's 21st in OF reaction, which is better than Verdugo and Abreu. What he's not good at is his route: 84th in the league. His great speed and quick reaction time overcomes his bad instincts and routing to the ball.

 

I would say that sums up most fast athletes when learning how to become good outfielders. After time, experiences in game situations, and reps in practice, can actually improve instincts and routes.

 

One of the hardest plays to teach young outfielders is pursuing long drives over their heads. It's initially awkward to turn your back to home plate and sprint to where you think the ball will travel -- but it's the fastest way to get there. Then, knowing when to turn forward again to see the ball is the trick -- even if you have to backpedal the last few strides to make the catch...

 

... kids shouldn't try to be Jim Edmonds, dive headfirst into the fence, and risk inside-the-park homers and/or concussions.

[notin]

At least Cora won't let Yoshida play left this season, so not many balls can soar past him and get stuck in a light, two feet off the ground.

 

There's a reason that's never happened before in a ballpark over one hundred years old...

 

I don't think I blame Yoshida for that freak occurrence. Outside of Yaz, is Yoshida really significantly worse than anyone else who has played LF in Fenway since World War II? Williams? Rice? Greenwell? Manny? Hanley? Troy O'Leary?

 

Not exactly a parade of Roberto Clemente Field-Alikes out there...

[notin]

I just wish Statcast went back to the Coco Crap days so that my eye test could be confirmed on his overratedness.

 

1. Crisp certainly established his reputation with highlight reel Web Gem plays, which, while certainly take some talent, are not necessarily indicative of being a good defender.

2. His defensive reputation was probably also bolstered by following Johnny Damon and occasionally alternating with Jacoby Ellsbury. If you can catch a cold on a rainy day, you can look good against that crowd.

 

 

Coco may have been overrated, but I'm not always sold on watching televised games for outfield defense, mostly because that heartless bastard who directs the telecast always waits until the ball is midflight and the outfielder is in mid-pursuit before cutting to him. But Crisp did come from Cleveland with questio marks surrounding his defense, and was moved from CF to LF because of them. (Along with the emergence of Grady Sizemore, which certaily factored in.)

[notin]

I would say that sums up most fast athletes when learning how to become good outfielders. After time, experiences in game situations, and reps in practice, can actually improve instincts and routes.

 

One of the hardest plays to teach young outfielders is pursuing long drives over their heads. It's initially awkward to turn your back to home plate and sprint to where you think the ball will travel -- but it's the fastest way to get there. Then, knowing when to turn forward again to see the ball is the trick -- even if you have to backpedal the last few strides to make the catch...

 

... kids shouldn't try to be Jim Edmonds, dive headfirst into the fence, and risk inside-the-park homers and/or concussions.

 

"NOW you tell me!!" - Aaron Rowand...

[jad]

The fact that there are those who criticize Yoshi because a ball got lodged in the light says more about the social attitudes of the posters than it does about Yoshi. What I've seen of him suggests that he's serviceable out there, and there have been many RS outfielders who were not.

[mvp 78]

The fact that there are those who criticize Yoshi because a ball got lodged in the light says more about the social attitudes of the posters than it does about Yoshi. What I've seen of him suggests that he's serviceable out there, and there have been many RS outfielders who were not.

 

If his hitting hadn't dropped off at the end of the year, nobody would have said s*** about his defense. We've seen far worse out there.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock was extended as a starter, not as a reliever. Management will give Whitlock every opportunity to become a starter until the wheels come off.

 

When there's shortage of starters, why would you not give him that opportunity?

 

The wheels have come off, and more than once with Whit.

[moonslav59]

Duran is just fine in CF. He's improved. He at least has make up speed to correct his initial reaction. Not perfect but he's our centerfielder until we find a shortstop.

 

He looks okay, and i agree, this is the best way to handle having no SS.

 

That being said, the OF of Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and O'Neill/Abreu in RF is better on D. (O'Neill or Duran could DH vs RHPs and ref vs LHPs.)

[Maxbialystock]

If the injuries continue, there's zero chance the ERA+ sticks around for the full season.

 

It's May 6, 35 games into the season, and 3 of 5 from the opening day rotation are still on the IL. However, Houck, Crawford, and Bello (on the IL) lead the Sox staff in IP.

 

Winckowski, Criswell, and Slaten all have more IP than Whitlock, whose return date is somewhere in the twilight zone.

 

In addition to Winckowski, Criswell, and Slaten, Anderson, Weissert, Bernardino, Martin, and Rodriguez each have pitched more innings than Pivetta. Thus has Cora declared Pivetta to start this week despite his lousy 3 inning stint last week for Worcester.

 

I'm astounded the Sox still have the lowest ERA in MLB, and I'm not alone.

 

Were we to poll talksoxers, I believe 100% of us would admit we had zero expectation this Sox pitching staff could lead MLB in ERA for even a week.

[moonslav59]

The defense should settle down. The offense has just been too all or nothing so far.

 

Indeed. It's hard to coach away from "all or nothing."

 

It just has to happen.

 

Maybe Grissom will add more consistency from the 2B slot on O and D.

 

Not having Casas hurts like hell.

 

Our catchers have done well, so far, but have both seen hot and cold streaks. I'm not sure they can continue near this pace.

 

Devers has heated up and needs to have anear career year.

 

Rafaela at SS is what he is: a work in progress.

 

Duran has been ht and cold. Abreu started out cold, then got hot. O'Neill has been pretty consistently good, except with men on base.

[Maxbialystock]

He looks okay, and i agree, this is the best way to handle having no SS.

 

That being said, the OF of Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and O'Neill/Abreu in RF is better on D. (O'Neill or Duran could DH vs RHPs and ref vs LHPs.)

 

I think you're right, but the espn stats on the Sox say O'Neill's DWAR is -0.4, tied with Casas for lowest DWAR on the team. In his brief return (to date), Refsnyder is actually worse with a -0.3 DWAR in just 12 games. The three best DWAR's on the Sox to date are Duran's +0.7, Abreu's +0.4, and Rafaela's +0.4. Rafaela also leads the Sox in errors with 6.

[Maxbialystock]

Indeed. It's hard to coach away from "all or nothing."

 

It just has to happen.

 

Maybe Grissom will add more consistency from the 2B slot on O and D.

 

Not having Casas hurts like hell.

 

Our catchers have done well, so far, but have both seen hot and cold streaks. I'm not sure they can continue near this pace.

 

Devers has heated up and needs to have anear career year.

 

Rafaela at SS is what he is: a work in progress.

 

Duran has been ht and cold. Abreu started out cold, then got hot. O'Neill has been pretty consistently good, except with men on base.

 

Ted Williams "round ball with a round bat squarely" notwithstanding, I think pitching is co-equal with hitting as a difficult skill to master. Casas's freak injury notwithstanding, most MLB players can put in all kinds of extra batting practice without risking injury. They can in fact get better even though, in the final analysis, talent plays a huge part.

 

Not so with pitchers who, we now know, are more at risk this season than at any time before--or so it seems. The Tommy John Club membership now accepts little leaguers. I believe there's also something like "Not Quite Tommy John" that Giolito had done back in March. It's called an "internal brace procedure to repair the UCL in his right elbow."

 

Just about every MLB team today is neatly divided into two camps: 13 hitters and 13 pitchers. I hasten to add that those 13 hitters also do most of the fielding and all of the baserunning, whereas all the pitchers need to be good at doing is pitching. Anyone want to guess how many total chances Kenley Jansen has had (in 11 IP)? Anyone? He hasn't had any.

[mvp 78]

@jayhaykid

9+ SB and 5+ 3B through first 35 games, Red Sox single season history:

 

1901 Tommy Dowd

1913 Tris Speaker

1989 Ellis Burks

2024 Jarren Duran

[mvp 78]

He looks okay, and i agree, this is the best way to handle having no SS.

 

That being said, the OF of Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and O'Neill/Abreu in RF is better on D. (O'Neill or Duran could DH vs RHPs and ref vs LHPs.)

 

Benching Yoshida (or do your plans include the IL stint)?