A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

The season has begun!

 

No doubt, the offseason was full throttle s*****. Much of that was captured on the Part I thread:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20823-A-Realistic-View-at-2024-Part-I

 

Starting the season on the 60 Day IL:

Giolito (our biggest addition of the winter)

Hendriks (acquired more for 2025 and the second half of '24.)

Murphy

 

Starting the season on the 10 Day IL:

Grissom (may join the team after April 20th)

Mata (out of options, so the team may try to prolong his rehab)

Refsnyder (may be back in May)

Walter (may be added to the 60 Day IL, if a roster move is needed)

 

Opening Day 26 Man Roster:

SP: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck

RP: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Slaten, Campbell, Joely, Anderson, Weissert

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas, Dalbec (3B)

2B: E Valdez, Reyes (SS)

3B: Devers

SS: Story

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: O'Neill (LF), Abreu (CF)

DH: Yoshida

 

Some notable minor league depth:

SP: Criswell, Uwasawa (Not on 40: Gambrell, Fitts) Wikelman

RP: Bernardino, Kelly, Jacques (Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Benitez)

C: Heineman (Teel)

1B: (Kavadas, Jordan)

2B: DHam (Sogard, Yorke)

3B: (Meidroth

SS: DHam (Mayer)

OF: R Gonzalez (Contreras, Rosier, Anthony)

 

When comparing this team to the disappointing 2023 team, it's easy to see losing Sale, Paxton, Turner, Duvall and Dugo as being a big loss, but most of these guys did not play a whole lot and or did not do all that great, when they did play (not Turner.) When looking more closely, we can see many other players who are gone or will not play as much as being more addition by subtraction, such as Kike/Arroyo/Urias/Chang, Tapia, Kluber, Schreiber, Bleier, Brasier, Llovera, Ort and many others. When you add up these guys PAs and IP, it was more significant than we might imagine.

 

Looking at the Defense, Offense and Pitching projections:

 

Defense (2023 Innings>2024 projected w no injuries)

C: Wong (940>940), McGuire (430>480)

1B: Casas (1040>1400), Dalbec (100>30) No Turner

2B: Grissom (0>1100), EValdez (360>300), Reyes (200>30) No Arroyo/Kike/Urias

3B: Devers (1290>1400), Dalbec (15>30) No Turner

SS: Story (310>1300), Reyes (200>130) No Kike/Chang

LF: Duran (170>1200), Refsnyder (350>130), O'Neill (100) No Yoshida

CF: Rafaela (120>1000), Abreu 90>430)

RF: O'Neill (0>1200), Abreu (10>230)

 

I see marked improvement on D at SS, 2B, CF and LF.

I see slight or possible improved D at RF, 1B and maybe 3B, C

 

On offense: (2023 Positional OPS> 2024 projected PAs)

C: .673 Wong 400 & McGuire 300> .700

1B: .840 Casas 650, Dalbec 50> .875

2B: .663 Grissom 500, Valdez 150, Reyes 50>.725

3B: .817 Devers 650, Dalbec 50> .900

SS: .636 Story 600, Reyes 100> .775

LF: .799 Duran 450, O'Neill 200, Ref 50> .775

CF: .827 Rafaela 450, Duran 150, Abreu 100> .725

RF: .725 O'Neill 400, Abreu 300> .750

DH: .755 Yoshida 650, O'Neill 50> .775

 

I see two positions getting worse, and the others looking pretty good, compared to 2023.

 

Pitching:

This is the hardest area to project. Losing Sale and Paxton from the rotation hurts, and with Gio getting hurt, the replacements are coming from our own system, and some had significant innings in the pen, last season. That makes pen improvement difficult. We may need these GS and IP to have a winning season. (Note: these are not projections but are more like wishes.)

 

32/175 Bello

32/170 Pivetta

28/150 Crawford

26/140 Whitlock

26/140 Houck

18 GS from Criswell, Anderson and others

 

We need top health from Janse and Martin and a full season from Wink and then 2-3 other pen arms must rise to the occasion. We have a lot of arms to choose from, but we can't afford to see 3-4 fail badly as we cycle through to find some that do well. After Jansen, Martin and Wink, we have these guys:

Campbell

Slaten

Joely

Anderson

Weissert

Bernardino

Kelly

Mata

Jacques

(Not on 40: Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Gambrell, Fitts)

 

I may be looking through pink glasses, but I think we should win 81-84 games, this season, despite being in a division with 4 teams projected for more wins.

 

Let's see what happens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

When...

 

Grissom comes back: E Valdez to AAA

 

Refsnyder: probably trade Ref or send Abreu or Rafaela to AAA.

 

Mata (out of options): maybe trade or DFA Mata or send down Weissert or Joely.

 

[Larry Cook]

When does Bernardino get back to Boston?

[moonslav59]

When does Bernardino get back to Boston?

 

As soon as someone earns a demotion.

[Larry Cook]

As soon as someone earns a demotion.

 

When does joely board the bus to Worcester?

[moonslav59]

When does joely board the bus to Worcester?

 

Weissert may go before the lefty, Joely.

[Nick]

You simply stick Rafaela out on center.

 

Ref is a utility piece. I would be pissed if Rafaela is sent down to make a room for Ref.

 

Rafaela is our future center fielder. If we can't srick with him this year when we're expected to come in dead last then when when will he get an opportunity?

[Bellhorn04]

Devers says he's had pain the shoulder for a while now, was playing through it in spring games.

 

Not what you want to hear.

[Duran Is The Man]

Devers says he's had pain the shoulder for a while now, was playing through it in spring games.

 

Not what you want to hear.

 

when i didn't see him in the starting lineup, i just assumed it was a scheduled rest day Cora had for him.

[Bellhorn04]

when i didn't see him in the starting lineup, i just assumed it was a scheduled rest day Cora had for him.

 

Boy that's cold.

 

We'll all be in mid-season form in no time.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess one thing that was highlighted in last night's game is that Breslow's plan to sign a situational RH bat in the offseason did not come to fruition...

[gojohn99]

Boy that's cold.

 

We'll all be in mid-season form in no time.

 

No doubt!

[dannycater]

It's kind of fun to watch a minor league team at the big league level...refreshing...thank god I'm not a season ticket holder.

[moonslav59]

I'm not too worried about our offense, but without Devers, the team suffers.

[Maxbialystock]

The season has begun!

 

No doubt, the offseason was full throttle s*****. Much of that was captured on the Part I thread:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20823-A-Realistic-View-at-2024-Part-I

 

Starting the season on the 60 Day IL:

Giolito (our biggest addition of the winter)

Hendriks (acquired more for 2025 and the second half of '24.)

Murphy

 

Starting the season on the 10 Day IL:

Grissom (may join the team after April 20th)

Mata (out of options, so the team may try to prolong his rehab)

Refsnyder (may be back in May)

Walter (may be added to the 60 Day IL, if a roster move is needed)

 

Opening Day 26 Man Roster:

SP: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck

RP: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Slaten, Campbell, Joely, Anderson, Weissert

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas, Dalbec (3B)

2B: E Valdez, Reyes (SS)

3B: Devers

SS: Story

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: O'Neill (LF), Abreu (CF)

DH: Yoshida

 

Some notable minor league depth:

SP: Criswell, Uwasawa (Not on 40: Gambrell, Fitts) Wikelman

RP: Bernardino, Kelly, Jacques (Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Benitez)

C: Heineman (Teel)

1B: (Kavadas, Jordan)

2B: DHam (Sogard, Yorke)

3B: (Meidroth

SS: DHam (Mayer)

OF: R Gonzalez (Contreras, Rosier, Anthony)

 

When comparing this team to the disappointing 2023 team, it's easy to see losing Sale, Paxton, Turner, Duvall and Dugo as being a big loss, but most of these guys did not play a whole lot and or did not do all that great, when they did play (not Turner.) When looking more closely, we can see many other players who are gone or will not play as much as being more addition by subtraction, such as Kike/Arroyo/Urias/Chang, Tapia, Kluber, Schreiber, Bleier, Brasier, Llovera, Ort and many others. When you add up these guys PAs and IP, it was more significant than we might imagine.

 

Looking at the Defense, Offense and Pitching projections:

 

Defense (2023 Innings>2024 projected w no injuries)

C: Wong (940>940), McGuire (430>480)

1B: Casas (1040>1400), Dalbec (100>30) No Turner

2B: Grissom (0>1100), EValdez (360>300), Reyes (200>30) No Arroyo/Kike/Urias

3B: Devers (1290>1400), Dalbec (15>30) No Turner

SS: Story (310>1300), Reyes (200>130) No Kike/Chang

LF: Duran (170>1200), Refsnyder (350>130), O'Neill (100) No Yoshida

CF: Rafaela (120>1000), Abreu 90>430)

RF: O'Neill (0>1200), Abreu (10>230)

 

I see marked improvement on D at SS, 2B, CF and LF.

I see slight or possible improved D at RF, 1B and maybe 3B, C

 

On offense: (2023 Positional OPS> 2024 projected PAs)

C: .673 Wong 400 & McGuire 300> .700

1B: .840 Casas 650, Dalbec 50> .875

2B: .663 Grissom 500, Valdez 150, Reyes 50>.725

3B: .817 Devers 650, Dalbec 50> .900

SS: .636 Story 600, Reyes 100> .775

LF: .799 Duran 450, O'Neill 200, Ref 50> .775

CF: .827 Rafaela 450, Duran 150, Abreu 100> .725

RF: .725 O'Neill 400, Abreu 300> .750

DH: .755 Yoshida 650, O'Neill 50> .775

 

I see two positions getting worse, and the others looking pretty good, compared to 2023.

 

Pitching:

This is the hardest area to project. Losing Sale and Paxton from the rotation hurts, and with Gio getting hurt, the replacements are coming from our own system, and some had significant innings in the pen, last season. That makes pen improvement difficult. We may need these GS and IP to have a winning season. (Note: these are not projections but are more like wishes.)

 

32/175 Bello

32/170 Pivetta

28/150 Crawford

26/140 Whitlock

26/140 Houck

18 GS from Criswell, Anderson and others

 

We need top health from Janse and Martin and a full season from Wink and then 2-3 other pen arms must rise to the occasion. We have a lot of arms to choose from, but we can't afford to see 3-4 fail badly as we cycle through to find some that do well. After Jansen, Martin and Wink, we have these guys:

Campbell

Slaten

Joely

Anderson

Weissert

Bernardino

Kelly

Mata

Jacques

(Not on 40: Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Gambrell, Fitts)

 

I may be looking through pink glasses, but I think we should win 81-84 games, this season, despite being in a division with 4 teams projected for more wins.

 

Let's see what happens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amazingly comprehensive laydown, thanks. About right, I think--not especially optimistic, as it should not be.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not too worried about our offense, but without Devers, the team suffers.

 

How can you say that when the Sox scored 6 runs with Devers and nada without him?

[a700hitter]

Taking Devers out of the lineup does gut the offense.

[dgalehouse]

Worst loss of the year.

[moonslav59]

How can you say that when the Sox scored 6 runs with Devers and nada without him?

 

I'm hoping he won't be out for long.

 

The guy can probably hit .900, one handed.

 

If he can't throw, it will mean he DHs, Yoshi goes to LF and as of now, Reyes and Dalbec cover 3B.

[Maxbialystock]

Worst loss of the year.

 

Worst loss in the entire history of Red Sox baseball!!!! Pivetta pitched a gem, and Winck got 2 scoreless innings, but the lineup looked like namby pambies.

 

Cora needs to throw some bats in the showers. What's that word? Lollygaggers!

 

And allow me to single out Duran and his new hairdo. What a wuss. Can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, and he's our freaking leadoff batter.

 

On second thought, maybe the new guy, the GM, needs to throw bats into the dugout.

[moonslav59]

Worst loss in the entire history of Red Sox baseball!!!! Pivetta pitched a gem, and Winck got 2 scoreless innings, but the lineup looked like namby pambies.

 

Cora needs to throw some bats in the showers. What's that word? Lollygaggers!

 

And allow me to single out Duran and his new hairdo. What a wuss. Can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, and he's our freaking leadoff batter.

 

On second thought, maybe the new guy, the GM, needs to throw bats into the dugout.

 

In true form, Max.

 

LOL

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Worst loss in the entire history of Red Sox baseball!!!! Pivetta pitched a gem, and Winck got 2 scoreless innings, but the lineup looked like namby pambies.

 

Cora needs to throw some bats in the showers. What's that word? Lollygaggers!

 

And allow me to single out Duran and his new hairdo. What a wuss. Can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, and he's our freaking leadoff batter.

 

On second thought, maybe the new guy, the GM, needs to throw bats into the dugout.

 

Definitely a winnable game, but sometimes one has to tip his/her cap to the opposing pitcher.

[moonslav59]

Definitely a winnable game, but sometimes one has to tip his/her cap to the opposing pitcher.

 

Kirby is damn good.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Kirby is damn good.

 

I noticed that.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

You simply stick Rafaela out on center.

 

Ref is a utility piece. I would be pissed if Rafaela is sent down to make a room for Ref.

 

Rafaela is our future center fielder. If we can't srick with him this year when we're expected to come in dead last then when when will he get an opportunity?

 

I agree 100%.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

For the SOX the best thing(only thing) about last night's game was Pivetta. His stuff was nasty. Edited March 30, 2024 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[Maxbialystock]

Definitely a winnable game, but sometimes one has to tip his/her cap to the opposing pitcher.

 

Absolutely right. Kirby was pretty good last year too--31 starts, 190 IP, ERA 3.35. I just got a little rambunctious because, well, it's another season. One of my favorite scenes from Fever Pitch is when the season tickets arrive.

 

I'm pessimistic like most of us this year, but right now there is a glimmer of hope because both Bello and Pivetta had good starts, the defense looks pretty decent, and the lineup is supposed to be better.

 

Someone else said 5-5 on this road trip wouldn't be too bad, and I agree.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Absolutely right. Kirby was pretty good last year too--31 starts, 190 IP, ERA 3.35. I just got a little rambunctious because, well, it's another season. One of my favorite scenes from Fever Pitch is when the season tickets arrive.

 

I'm pessimistic like most of us this year, but right now there is a glimmer of hope because both Bello and Pivetta had good starts, the defense looks pretty decent, and the lineup is supposed to be better.

 

Someone else said 5-5 on this road trip wouldn't be too bad, and I agree.

 

Hard to argue with any of that. Hopefully, Devers is in tonight's line-up.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ok, good pitching beats good hitting, but anyone who thinks this offense is just as good without Turner, Verdugo, Kike and Duvall should maybe accept we'll be seeing even more Ks all season long than the last two last-place clubs.

 

O'Neill, Rafaela, Abreu and obviously Story improve the D, but they're all prone to swing-and-miss... and even when Story was a regular before injuries and got regular ABs for six months at a time, he was always a big whiffer.

 

Can Grissom change the K culture?

[moonslav59]

May 25, 2023 to April 29, 2024 with 100+ IP:

 

74 Pitchers had 100+ IP, since then

 

Pivetta was 2nd in K/9 at 12.63 (14th in K:BB at 4.68)

 

ERA-

6. Pivetta 66

38. Crawford 92

44. B Bello 95

 

ERA

7. Pivetta 2.93

47. Crawford 4.16

50. B Bello 4.26

 

FIP

11. Pivetta 3.22

22. Crawford 3.63

56. Bello 4.49

 

fWAR

T26 Crawford 2.3

T26 Pivetta 2.3

T55 B Bello 1.4