From FanGraphs:
Winner: Craig Breslow’s Sudden Aggression
I’m not sure how Boston’s season is going to turn out, but it’s been a delight to watch as a neutral observer. The Sox made industry standard, consultant-approved team building moves all winter, trying to stack up accumulations in value and Build Sustainably Through Agile Thinking, or whatever buzzword you’d call it these days. To be clear, I liked those moves. I wrote about them this winter. But they were based on playing the odds, taking a long view, trying to make improvements while minding the cost. Then things started to fall apart. The Sox started as cold as possible. Breslow fired Alex Cora and most of his staff before the end of April. The front office drew plenty of criticism both for the way they handled the firings and the timing. Breslow’s focus on analytics, his team construction, probably his Dunkin’ order of choice, it all came under scrutiny. But July saw them go 21-4, spurred by a 15-game win streak. Suddenly they found themselves in a playoff spot and with a good farm system, and Breslow said screw it, I can go get Adley Rutschman, why wait?
The first sign that the Sox were going to be aggressive buyers was the Connelly Early/Curtis Mead trade, which is a good avatar for all of Boston’s consequential moves this deadline. In terms of pure surplus value, I like the Nats’ side of it. But from the perspective of trying to be good this year, the Sox won it for sure, even if Mead broke his hand right afterwards and ruined their plans.
The deal for Rutschman was their big swing, and while it might be another overpay, only the Dodgers added a better player at the deadline, and the Red Sox even get Adley next year too. Likewise, I was shocked to see Mayer moved for a reliever, albeit a solid lefty, but clearly the Red Sox had had enough of looking at the little cell in their spreadsheet that told them how valuable Mayer was to the team, and decided to get out while the getting was still good, improving the team in the process.
We might look back on these trades in a few years and say that Boston overpaid. Certainly, the industry consensus leans that way now, and I agree. But I’m not all that confident, because I’m not all that confident in my evaluations of the 10 players the Red Sox dealt. I am sure that they made themselves better this year, and that’s the point of this exercise. You do all the boring, accumulative stuff in the slow times so that you can move fast and break things in the heat of a playoff race. I find myself in the strange place of agreeing with Craig Breslow’s strategy (go for it) while being unsure of his tactics (at what cost?), after his entire tenure until now had been marked by my thinking the opposite (great short-term tactics, but not enough long-term plan).