moonslav59

Many great hitters had "holes" at Justin's age and even much later and figured things out well. Yes, his power is his ticket. I know OBP doesn't always translate to the bigs, but .385 can have a lot of downturn and still be fine. 19 HRs 36 XBHs 421 ABs (101 Ks but 88 BBs) His 14.4 BB% was his career best.

What rank was given to Durbin?

CF and RF are more important in Fenway than maybe any other park in MLB. Both have been pretty good on offense, too. 5.9 bWAR Abreu 5.7 bWAR Rafaela Fangraphs OF Rankings: 9. Rafaela 4.0 fWAR 13. Abreu 3.3 fWAR

If he means a few fans are for keeping status quo, I get it. (Is status quo bringing back Gray and replacing $6M IKF and $9M Sandoval with a $15M addition?) I'm not seeing anyone showing complacency.

I know I've been talking up Mead, and I do realize his value is not yet known and is still speculative, but if we traded for him this winter, I'd probably view it like I did the Contreras trade, last winter. I was higher than I should have been on Narvaez, despite some posters trying to talk me down, but as questionable as Rutschman is, he is a much better bet than Narvaez was. One could view him as a winter add, too. IMO, those two are not enough. We likely eliminated two black holes and replaced them with above average players, especially on offense. We rate to have one slot projected under a 100 OPS+, and that is SS. I really like Arias, but our window is here and now, and I don't want to cut anyone some slack as they work to develop into something great (if at all.) I'm big on SS defense, and Arias should be fine at that, but Story is not. I don't want to hand him the FT jon, either. Trade for a SS, and make it a real good one. If that's all we do, it might be enough.

There will never be consensus on what specific needs should be addressed, and then on who that addition should be. It does seem like most think we need something major, although that might be just bringing Gray back and adding a decent bat for some.

I'd probably project an 85-90 OPS+ from a SS combo of Arias and Story for 2027. Everyone else should be over 100, except Wong. Of course, someone will disappoint and end up under, maybe even two or three guys. That plus a drop fro Contreras needs us to rely on rebounds and improvements. Let's just get us a big bat SS and change the whole dynamic!

I think we could very well have 8 guys projected at 100+ in OPS+, not counting Gasper, Jones and some other subs. Contreras may decline, but expecting over 100 is what everyone will do. Abreu has never been under 116. AR was at 107 in 2026 and under 105 only once in his 5 year career. Sure he could go under, but there is no reason to expect or project that. Anthony has 545 career PAs, so he's largely an unknown. A career 128 OPS+ suggests he will pass the 100 mark in 2027. Durbin turns 27 and has two full seasons under his belt. He's been so close to 100 (101 both years) that going under is possible, but at 27 most players improve. Rafaela his improved every season, but he was under 100 his first 4 seasons. (78>85>95>115.) Certainly he could break the upward trend, and he is "streaky." I think expecting 100+ is very reasonable, though. I've probably been higher on Mead than anyone else, here, and he never got over a 90 before 2026's 135. I'm actually not okay with anyone projecting under 100. It seems like defeatist thinking, to me. Yoshida was only under 100 in one season- his shortest one (2025.) He's a career 109 batter, but he's now 33. Maybe close, but I'll project the over. That's 8, and I haven't brought up Romy, who was 6th in team PAs in 2025. He had an amazing 128 OPS+ and actually had more PAs vs R than L. He was at 102 in 2024. (112 career w BOS.) Okay, neither he nor Mead can play SS, so we can't say we have a line-up full or 9 projected 100+ guys, but Romy offers nice depth. Story's main issue has been injury, and while many of the season sample sizes are small, I was rather surprised to see he finished over a 100 OPS+ in 3 of his 5 seasons with BOS. Both of his highest laying time seasons were over 100 (102 in '22 and 104 in '25.) It's been 97 from 2024-2026. I'm fine with projecting he and Arias under 100 and maybe even under a 90. I would not project Arias over 100, but it wouldn't shock me. We can't count subs as 100+ guys in our line-up everyday, but we do have some promise with a few of them: Gasper had a shockingly bust out 135 OPS+ in 225 PAs. That could be an outlier, but maybe not. Seigler was at 105 in 175 PAs in 2026. Jones has a career 98 OPS+ and went insane in 2026 with BOS at 178. If he's used exclusively vs LHP, he should be over 100. Casas has a career 118 OPS+, just sayin'. Nobody should project Wong to be over 100 and maybe even over 85 or 90. He did go 113 in 2024, in his largest sample size season of his career (487 PAs) We may only have 2 of 13 roster slots projected at under 100: Story/Arias and Wong- the back-up catcher. I'm with Drewski on the position that we need top quality, and not all but one one batter between 100 and 110. It's nice having balance, and we have some hopes that someone(s) can join Contreras as elite batters (Mead, Anthony, Abreu and even AR, but we could really use a more proven big bat.

I'm curious as to who is "complacent." Breslow? I've never seen a Sox GM make so many significant moves is such a short time, and the vast majority exceeded expectations, especially if you cherry-pick the start date as right after the Sale trade. Success or not, nobody can say he's been complacent. Are you talking about posters who think we don't need to do much this winter? I'm seeing a lot of disagreement over what is needed, but it seems like everyone is asking for something significant.

I expected a further decline, but wasn't sure of it, and I certainly did not expect 4.5 drop. Not many expected the 4.1 drop from 2024 to 2025, either. Other than by injury, how many MLB have seen 2 drops like that in back-to-back season? We might have been able to absorb that drop by istelf, but we also saw... 4.1>0.2 Story 2.8>-0.3 Narvaez (-0.9 BOS+BAL) These combined hurt, but the kicker was... 6.0> -0.5 Crochet

That was really good, but in terms of total production (not rings) Brez's is better. It wasn't guy on the addition list that let the team down, except for maybe just Mead & Oviedo. Some of the single most productive players were Schilling before 2004, Beckett before 2007, Lackey before 2013, and Sale before 2028- who all led to rings. JD was big. Manny was big, but years before 2004. Papi was a huge add. Victorino for that one year.

The guy is just 19 years old. .834 at A+/AA playing against pitchers much older than him. He's just 1 year older than Delzine, who made it up to A-. 24 BB in 65 IP is not great control, either. It's better than Valera's was, so I can see bumping him over Valera, but not Gonzalez.

Possible for Story, too. Also, 2-3 subs could be 100 (Gasper, Yoshida, Romy and dare I say Casas.) The issue is we may only have one batter over .775. Can a team win with 8 guys between .720 and ,770?

Brez did pretty well diving for Jones & White.

No doubt, but the Yanks lost Judge and pitching. I thought Mayer had a shot to succeed, but should not have been counted on. By adding IKF, Seigler and Monasterio while already having Romy, I think Brez planned well for a Mayer failure. Keeping Duran was IMO a hedge against Anthony failing or getting hurt, and it turned out we needed a good back-up for Roman. Just too bad Duran couldn't even decline to .725 w 25 Hrs.

That's if you believed his decline was a blip.

Give a boost to Abreu and we'd have two.

While Buehler and DMay didn't light the world on fire in 2026, had they done this well in 2025, maybe things are different. May 2.8 fWAR Buehler 1.5 (How about Drohan 2.0 and Harrison 1.7)

When you look at top SP'ers by fWAR in 2026, and figure Gray is gone, we have these ranked SP'ers (100+ IP) #15 Tolle 4.1 in only 149 IP! #20 Suarez 3.8 (148 IP) #56 Bennett 2.3 in just 113 IP! (Project to 160 IP: 3.4- same as Gray at #25) #103 Bello 1.0 (111 IP)- counting RP innings This kinda hurts... 4. Sale 5.8 25. Gray 3.4 27. ERod 3.2 34. Dustin May 2.8 52. Wacha 2.4 67. Drohan 2.0 (125 IP) 75. Nate 1.8 76. Harrison 1.7 87. Buehler & Martin Perez 1.5 RP 10. Whitlock 2.0 17. Chapman 1.7 28. Bello 1.2 48. Guerrero 1.0

The chart highlights the lack of several top 5 batters by positional comps. We have three top 5 overall players, which is nice, and very few bottom 5 or 10 players or batters, which is also nice. If we can flip the bottom overall and offense at SS to a top 5-10, it could be enough. I'd like to try and make sure it's enough by upgrading one other slot (DH/LF w Anthony or DH/2B with Mead.) I'm fine with 3B being around 15th to 20th on offense, if we fix two other slots, and I also have faith Durbin can become top 10-15 on offense at 3B. If we added a 3Bman and moved Durbin to 2B (Mead to DH) he's be top 10-15 on offense without improving.

Choosing 2019 as the starting point had an obvious motive and reason to it. That is what cherry-picking means. There is nothing wrong with doing it. I do it often to emphasize or support my position. Yanks have won seven playoff series to the Sox two in the last 8 years. It's 8-5 if you cherry-picked 9 years. It's 8-5 if you go to 10 years. (9-5, if you count the Yanks won a WC game and the Sox got a bye and lost rd 1) We are talking series. It stays Yanks 8- Sox 5 back to 2013, when it becomes 8-8. Yanks go up 9-8 since 2012 and 10-8 in 2010. It's at 12-8 after NYYs WS win in 2009. The Sox bring it to 12-9 after 2008 and tie it up 12-12 in 2007. (20 year sample size.) The Sox only get the lead when we cherry pick a 21 year sample size (Sox up 15-13.) -2004 2003: BOS 16- NYY 15 In 2001: The Yanks grab the lead back at 17-16, and before that, they lead until the start of baseball. Yes, cherry-picking can yield desired results. Want a mini lesson on the meaning of "strawman?"

Looking at offense and defense, I think we can safely say we have... A top 10 Catcher (Rutschman) Top 15 offense? A top 5 1Bman (Contreras) Top 5 offense. A top 15 2Bman (Mead/Story) Top 10 offense. A bottom 5 SS (Story/Arias) Bottom 10 offense? A top 10 3Bman (Durbin) Middle 10 offense. A top 10 LF'er (Anthony) Top 10 offense. A top 5 CF'ers (Rafaela) Top 15 offense. A top 5 RF'er (Abreu) Top 15 offense. A middle 10 DH (Mead/Story/Yoshida/Gasper) Anybody wildly disagree on some of these?

Impossible dreamer is more like it.

Yes on 1- not sure on 2. Maybe Brez wanted more than just Paredes. BTV agreed with Brez. They looked close to even in skill and projections, but Duran had the extra year.

Yup, including many short series then done. They have done better than us in the cherry-picked 8 year sample size.