moonslav59

While Suarez is not a position player, he's no king crab either. They did fork over money for Contreras and future money on Anthony, Campbell & Rafaela. Some say more than market value. We are spending $40M more AAV than 2 years ago, for what that is worth, but I agree that we need to spend more. My big worry is not spending it wisely, if we do spend more next winter.

I could be wrong, but didn't you have Bichette on an earlier wish list? Bregman has not been an elite bat, except for two half seasons for many years. Schwarber's age worried me, but he was clearly the best winter bat for the short term. I wanted Alosno, too, and I'd have been okay with Alonso & Contreras, booting Masa and trading an OF'er for a 2B/3Bman (good bat or not.)

Career OPS+/ Last 3 years OPS+(23-25) /2025-2026 OPS+ 134/129/139 Alonso 131/122/123 Bregman 127/135/148 Schwarber (The oldest guy on this list) 124/120/127 Wilyer Abreu 120/114/116 Bichette (Youngest on list) 119/127/127 Contreras (The second oldest on list) Throw the age curve out on these results. The two players who have done better than their career are the oldest. The worst is the youngest! If you look at the two more recent numbers: Abreu & Contreras> Bregman & Bichette Improvement over career: +21 Schwarber +10 Contreras +5 Alonso +3 Abreu -4 Bichette -8 Bregman

But you won't bet the current Sox will get closer to their career OPS, too, right?

Yoshida up 4th, again. Story still up 5th, while the hit hand Rafaela bats 8th. I like seeing the attempt to boost the offense by using Gasper at Catcher, but I worry about the defense and how he works with Tolle. (Did he ever catch Tolle in the minors?) 11 hits in the last 21 innings is not a good sign, and it's a bit concerning to think Rafaela has been our third best hitter as we near the one quarter mark of the season. .873 Abreu .843 Willson .758 Rafaela .728 Yoshida .702 Wong .675 Anthony (IL) .631 Mayer / .628 Monasterio .599 Narvaez/ .583 Duran .514 Story/ .513 Durbin .449 IKF n/a Gasper That being said, our team OPS was .636 after 25 games and it's .721 over the last 14 games. Cherry-picking, of course, because it's .524 over the last 3 games.

It's hard to determine who rates to be an "elite bat" over the next 2-3 years. Using career OPS for a 32-35 year old seems illogical. Using most recent 2-3 year OPS might be better, but is likely still flawed. Using just last year has serious flaws, too. Using age regression charts as part of the calculation is probably helpful, and I think fangraphs projections does this to some extent, but to me it's mostly a stab in the dark, and our track record has pretty much sucked since the JD signing.

If we could trust JH to spend the Devers money plus more and trust Brez & Co. to spend the money wisely, it could make a difference. That's two big ifs, though.

It's not just the May 9th numbers, nor the end of 2025 numbers, it's the drama. SFG are not happy with Devers.

Agreed, and a few realized that older FAs rarely come close to expectations and wanted Bichette. Maybe one or two were high on Okamoto or Murakami- the youngest ones.

And if career numbers are what should drive our choices, then where's the Story love gone?

Yes, and to use career OPS for 32+ olds is not something I would think projects who they will be. Bregman has never put up numbers close to those two good years long ago. Maybe for a couple half years. Alonso did. Schwarber did. Bichette never really did. Tucker & Bellinger play the OF. Contreras is doing about as good or better as any of these guys. We needed a second big bat as almost everyone here agreed upon, and we whiffed. If we whiffed on Bregman, Bichette and a few others, I'm glad. Alonso/Schwarber and Contreras would have meant one DHs and an OF'er + Yoshida sit. A 2B/3Bman was the right fit, but very few of the available 2B/3Bman have done well (Murakami, Okamoto and trade guys like BLowe and Donovan.) It seems like those 4 were not widely suggested, so to me, we were asking for a miracle choice and are complaining Brez wasn't a fortune teller.

If all the Flops bats were hitting their career numbers, we wouldn't need the poor numbers Alonso, Bichette and Bregman are giving their teams, this season. I know this argument has flaws, but it also has some merit. It's a shot in the dark on big bat signings, and some of these guys from last winter's FA group were hardly "elite" bats.

More than 50% of the "elite bats" from last winter are underperforming or vastly underperforming. When you then consider our track record on selecting "the right guy" with our largest FA bat signings, I do pause to wonder why we put so much hope into that avenue as "the solution." I'm not calling out posters for being wrong, as I was calling for major signings, too, but the results of major bat signings out of the gate does not look good: In order by largest contract (age) OPS Tucker (29) .739 Bregman (32) .677 Bellinger (30>31) .899 Alonso (31) .786 Schwarber (33) .893 Bichette (28) .571 None over .900, two doing well (800-900), one doing okay (750-799) and three doing poorly, including one very poorly (under 750) 2-1-3 (more bad than good) ______________ $60-$120M Naylor (28>29) .681 Okamoto (29>30) .825 1-1 _____________ $25M>$59M Realmuto (35) .677 Polanco (32>33) .532 Murakami (26) .947 (The only one over 900) 1-2 _________________ Total: 1 Great (Murakami- the guy nobody here wanted) 3 Good (over 800) Schwarber, Bellinger, Okamoto 1 Okay (750-799) Alonso 4 Bad (650-749) Tucker, Bregman, Naylor 2 Horrific (<650) Bichette & Polanco ____________ 4 Good to Great 1 Okay 6 Bad or worse Most of us wanted to see an effort, and the pivot from Bregman to Suarez was a gut punch to hopes for a good offense or better, but he has saved the pitching staff- he and the kids.

He does look good- better than I expected, and quicker to the bigs than anyone but him& his Momma dreamed of. SP'ers: 5-6 more seasons: Crochet (5 + Option) Top pitching prospects w no MLB experience: 3 Eyanson, 4 Witherspoon, 5 Phillips. 6 Bennett, 8 Valera, 11 Holobetz, 14 Uberstine Pre-arb: Early, Tolle & Bennett 4 more seasons: Suarez & Bello (3 + option) 2 more seasons: Crawford 1 more season: Gray ($30M option & SG can opt out) Oviedo & Houck Bye-bye: Sandoval

Speaking of prospect graduations, Early's recent one broke 5 straight everyday player trend by the Sox (Sogard>Narvaez>Campbell>Anthony>Mayer.) Slaten graduated in JUN 24, and there were 7 out of 8 everyday between Kelly in May '23 and Early in May '26. From DEC '22, it was 9 out of 11. The current top prospects list shows the flip that has taken place under Brez's watch: 5 of top 6 are pitchers (Arias is #2.) 14 of top 23 and 17 of 27.

It's great seeing Eyanson jump to #3 from #6. Of course Early's graduation helped for 1 slot, but he also jumped Witherspoon & Valera. Tolle may graduate soon.

Sogard also doubled as did KC and Eaton. Bastardo struggles while Song did well and got the win. Brannon jumped to 1.152 with those two dingers. Mason White with 7 dingers-wow! Futrell finally had a bad game, but still had 5Ks in 4 IP with no BBs. For the season: 28Ks to 5BB in 27.1 IP

The Sox are now 0.5 GB the middle tier of the AL (middle 5 teams.) 1 GB the 6th best AL record. 2 GB the 5th best record (19-20 SEA) What a cluster league. 3 of the top 5 teams may not end up there: TBR, ATH & CLE. It's gonna be a long season.

I liked Donovan and BLowe as secondary options (pun intended) and never thought about Durbin till it happened. Then again, I also thought about Polanco and ESuarez who is barely better on D than Devers. I'm just glad it wasn't Bichette. I liked Breggie but at no where near the offers we and the Cubs made.

Just finished watching. Big game by Early, plus some long ball action. We need to put together something long term.

If Casas wasn't about the worst defensive 1Bman in baseball, I could see moving Devers to DH, but I can't see keeping him at 3B for one more minute. Just my opiunion.

It would be sideways for him to suck, but I suppose he could give up 20 runs in 3 IP.

Think pay 80-90% of their contract or throw in a mid level prospect? IKF might be wanted by someone for half his remaining $2M (end of July) Gray might be the biggest prize. The 1.5 to 2.5 year players may be in question and more sought after. Chapman might bring back a nice return. (He has a 2027 option.) Contreras has 1 more year plus an option for 2028. Yoshida will have one more year left ($18M + $6M owed for '26) Houck has little value until he proves he's back (one more year) Whitlock has 2 options left, but is not looking good, so far. Duran, Crawford, Casas, Romy & Wong have 2 arbs left, but the value might not be there for any of them.

Only one direction to go!

soxprospects.com still takes a dim view of our catching prospects despite Brez adding several in recent months. 30. Gerald Rodrigues A+ (IFA Jan '23) Potential up-and-down depth catcher. Ceiling of a second division regular who contributes on both sides of the ball. Intriguing skillset for a catcher. Has upside at the plate if he can refine his approach and continue on his current defensive trajectory. 31. Luke Heyman A- (Alex Hoppe trade) Powerful right-handed hitter with a chance to stay at catcher. Wide-range of outcomes still, but has intriguing impact ability and a strong arm to build on. If he can stay at catcher, he could bring an intriguing offensive skillset to the position, but might have enough offensive upside to profile at first base if he can’t stick behind the plate. 33. Franklin Primera FCL (IFA SEP '24) Young catching prospect with considerable defensive upside. Development will largely turn on how his bat develops, as his defense is advanced for his age. Needs to get stronger, but shows some intriguing offensive traits. 44. Johanfran Garcia AA (IFA JAN '22) Potential minor league depth player. Projection is fluid and depends on how much further he comes back from knee surgery, which is a significant question given his physical profile and need to work on maintaining his physique. Prior to his injury, showed an advanced bat for his age and the ability to impact the baseball, but has not shown the same impact ability and loud tools since he returned. If he can improve his conditioning, that impact could return some, but that remains to be seen. 45. Adonys Guzman A+ (Part of Jh Garcia-Oviedo trade) Intriguing catching prospect with a defense first profile. Has the type of defensive ability that could carry him to the high minors in short order. Upside will be determined by how much he hits. 56. Brooks Brannaon AA (listed as 1B now- drafted in 2022) High-variance prospect who has struggled to stay healthy in his pro career and faces significant questions defensively, but shows at least one very intriguing tool that could play at the MLB level. Has upside if he can stick behind the plate due to his power, which is among the best in the system, but questions regarding his hit tool and defense cloud his projection. If he is unable to stick at catcher, which currently seems likely, would be limited to first base or designated hitter, putting far more pressure on his hit tool to improve and allow him to tap into his impressive power. Needs to make more contact and chase less in order to allow his power to play to its potential.