moonslav59

He's likely to get $8-9M via arb. That's a lot for a 4th OF'er/PR.

Owen can do fine without Roman sucking.

For a guy who missed a lot of time due to injury, I'd say a .341 OBP is decent and a .400 SLG is a bit low but not bad. .400 SLG is the league average. The league .318 OBP is 23 lower than Roman. He doesn't even have 550 career PAs under his belt, and this is his line: .272 BA (MLB .244) .372 OBP (MLB: .316) .435 SLG (MLB .402) .807 OPS (MLB .718) HRs per 162: 17 XBHs per 162: 60

K% in 2026 (MLB: 22.3%) and OBP/SLG 33 Story .270/.353 31 Jones .419/.603 27 Duran .267/.362 27 Anthony .342/.400 25 Contreras .387/.518 24 Wong .309/.349 23 Rutschman .268/.383 ___________ League AVG ___________ 21 Abreu .328/,448 20 Sogard .340/.386 20 Rafaela .318/.442 19 Monasterio .297/.374 17 Gasper .357/.466 16 Seigler .327/.400 15 IKF .322/.311 14 Durbin .333/.379 11 Yoshida .347/.399

I just don't see any need for Eaton, except as a PR. I'm not dead set on the idea of Romy, but the guy has been one of MLB's best batters vs LHPs, and you know the Yanks will be using several during the series.

The game 1 starter gets to start the next round game 1, while the game 2 starter gets extra rest before his next start. I think Cam and Gray start game 1. Tolle starts game 2. I think Fried starts game 2 for NYY, but it's a tough call.

LF defense is important in NY, but our offense is what concerns me.

K% in 2026 (MLB: 22.3%) 34 Narvaez (gone) 33 Story (1 year left) 32 Cheng (3rd/4th string SS) 31 Jones (platoon OF'er) 29 Romy (not on 26) 27 Duran (2nd on team in PAs and might be gone in '27) 27 Anthony (as long as he gets on base, this doesn't concern me) 26 Eaton (like #38 on the 40 man roster) 25 Contreras (not a concern) 24 Wong (could be gone in '27) 23 White (out of options & 5th OF type) 23 Rutschman (near league avg) ___________ League AVG ___________ 21 Abreu 20 Sogard & Rafaela 19 Monasterio & Mayer (gone) 17 Gasper 16 Seigler 15 IKF (FA to be) 14 Durbin 11 Yoshida

When Early was traded, his ETA from injury was an unknown. I think missing the season was sort of expected. Mead was expected to be healthy. I think this was the main reason we made the trade. I think Early was viewed as slightly better but we needed a bat "NOW" and Mead had several years of control, too.

If the higher need is 2B/1B/DH Romy is a better solution to Eaton. Monasterio is not what he was earlier. He's never been a plus on defense, as with Romy, but Romy hit .371 BA in SEPT AAA. Monsaterio: .198 OPS last 31 PAs. .304 OPS last 75. .651 last 240 PAs Romy was demoted after he was called up before he was ready and hit .572 over 73 PAs. Romy> Eaton & Monasterio.

I do, too. I just don't see him as helping this team, going forward. If he was going to make $4-6M on his arb, that would be okay, but $7-9M is too much for a tight-fisted owner's budget. I know $2-4M doesn't seem like much, but that could be the next T Guerrero. Jones and White. Since Jones and White are out of options, and Anthony and Yoshida can play LF, we'll have enough OF'ers for 2027. The DH position looks like the best slot to upgrade our offense, so slotting Anthony in LF and maybe trading Yoshida could be the best plan. That plan would mean Duran is on the bench. It's one thing signing a guy like IKF for $6M to be a utility infielders, but $8-9M for a 4th OF'er when we already have White, Jones and maybe Yoshida just doesn't seem like a shrewd budget choice. Yoshida could also be a decnet FT DH in 2027, despite the aging and injury issues. Here's the rub: if Duran is not worth $8-9M, how can we sign him and trade him without adding money? It would make more sense to non tender him or sign him at $6M/1 ir $11M/2 before non tendering him. (Then, maybe trade him.) I'm not sure that is likely either. Further complicating the DH-LF situation is the fact that we have Story-Mead-Arias at middle infield, which could easily help fill the DH slot. With Sogard, Seigler, Monasterio & Cheng as middle infield depth, using Story or Mead at DH makes even more sense. That would put more of a squeeze on Duran's usefulness for 2027. Ideally, Brez could find a way to trade two from Yoshida, Duran and Story. Maybe we trade Jones or White, if we keep Duran. This is much easier said than done, even if we pay big chunks of salary owed. It might be easier with less money owed now, but Yoshida's injury and Story's age might offset the less money aspect of these trade options. Let's say we trade Duran for a AAA SP'er depth piece. We trade Story + $18M for a RP'er. We trade Yoshida +$14M for another RP'er. We'd gain some pitching depth we lost with the recent trades, and we'd be left with everyday options like this: C: Rutschman & Wong/Gasper/JoGarcia 1B: Contreras & Sogard/Romy/Casas/Gasper 2B: Mead & Sogard/Seigler/Monasterio/Cheng/Rodgers/Romero 3B: Durbin & Sogard/Eaton/Monasterio/ Romero SS: Arias & Monasterio/Cheng/Sogard LF: Anthony & Jones/White/Campbell/Castro CF: Rafaela & White/Eaton/Ward RF: Abreu & White/Eaton/Campbell/Gonzales DH: ___FA____ & Campbell/Gasper/Romy/Casas/Gonzales/JoGarcia/Brannon

The trade looked great out of the gate, but Miller is moving towards the "can't trust in high leverage" category. He's let up runs in 4 of his last 5 games: 4.1 IP 5 Hits & 6 BB + 2 HBP (just 4 Ks) That's 13 runners in 4.1 IP! 6 ERs Note: Keep an eye on the prospects we got added (OF'er Gutierrez- SPs 14th ranked prospects.)

They say the Contreras injury is slow to heal, but I think he returns. Just a hunch. The series starts Tuesday, so his bruise has 3 more full days to improve. Without him, your line-up looks correct. I could see Eaton over Romy, but with Jones on the bench, when and where would Eaton play? The need at 1B, 2B and DH seems greater than 3B/OF, and both Romy & Eaton are RHBs. IKF has done a fine job, so I'm not sure Romy will play over him, but I'd rather have Romy at 1B vs LHPs than Monasterio or Sogard. I'd rather have Romy at 2B than Monasterio, but they'd be 3rd string to IKF & Sogard. I think Duran-Jones in LF with Anthony at FT DH is what we'll see, but I like Romy as the next DH vs LHPs than anyone else other than Jones/Anthony (whoever is not in LF.) I'm sticking with Romy>Eaton, but it's the last guy on the bench in a 3 game series with a day off today and Monday and Sunday's game being a start the scrubs game.

Getting Anthony and Story back has helped, but the rash of everyday player injuries has begun to rival the rotation injury level. Contreras & Rafaela (who is back) are our two everyday WAR leaders. Mead & Seigler have forced IKF, Monasterio & Sogard to play 2B. Yoshida, Mead, Gasper, White & Romy have forced Duran to keep playing FT as Anthony DHs. While only Contreras and Mead are major players, the loss of some of their replacements have put us in a bind. Kinda like 2025's playoffs that saw 42 PAs from Romy (9) Masa (7) Sogard (7) N Lowe (7) Eaton (6) and Refsnyder (6)

Sogard could play 1B, too.

The last report on Mead (9/22) he was advancing from hitting off a tee to BP. I think the odds for Contreras are higher. I think KC is not ready. Nothing on Seigler since Sept 16th. White and Yoshida are done. I see the NYC line-up as such: vs RHP (Schlitter & Cole) 1. L Anthony DH 2. S Rutschman C 3. L Abreu RF 4. R Contreras 1B 5. R Story SS 6. L Duran LF 7. R Durbin 3B 8. R Rafaela CF 9. R IKF 2B Bench: Wong, Sogard, Jones, Monasterio or Romy vs LHP (Fried & Rodon) 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Rafaela CF 3. L Abreu RF 4. R Contreras 1B/DH 5. S Rutschman C 6. R Story SS 7. R Durbin 3B 8. R Sogard DH/1B 9. R Monasterio 2B/ Romy DH or 2B Bench: Wong, Duran, IKF, Jones

Not sure on KC. He did miss the last few games. I heard Yoshida is out until 2027.

The fWAR Ranking should not change much, so here is how the Sox lined up, this year: 4.1 Contreras -129 games (4.9 per 150) 4.1 Tolle -26 GS (5.0 per 32 GS) 4.0 Rafaela- 137 (4.6) 3.8 Suarez- 28 GS (4.3) 3.4 Gray-29 GS (3.7) 3.2 Abreu- 156 (3.2) 3.0 Durbin- 152 (3.0) 2.3 Bennett- 20 GS (3.6) 2.0 Whitlock- 52 IP (2.1 per 60 IP) 1.6 Chapman -52 IP (1.7) 1.2 Sogard- 65 (2.7) 1.1 Sandoval -14 GS (2.5) 1.0 IKF- 66 (2.3) 1.0 Guerrero -40 IP (1.5) 1.0 Bello- 11 GS (1.2 adjusted to RP) 0.9 Anthony 54 (2.8) 0.9 Gasper 67 (2.5) 0.7 Jones 36 (2.9) 0.5 Rutschman 31 (2.4) 0.5 Duran 150 (0.5) 0.4 Seigler 49 (1.2) 0.4 Yoshida 87 (0.7) 0.2 Story 63 (0.5) 0.2 Eaton 23 (1.3) 0.1 Cheng 14 (1.0) 0.1 White 27 (0.6) ___________________ Other batters: 0.0 Mead 1 -0.1 Mayer 70 -0.2 Wong 76 -0.2 Narvaez 62 -0.2 Romy 19 -0.5 Monasterio 106 __________________ Other Pitchers: 0.6 Early 0.6 Slaten 0.5 Gamboa 0.3 Crochet 0.3 Miller 0.3 Weissert 0.2 Samaniego & Burgos 0.1 Moran, Paez, Kelly, Olds 0.0 Watson, Rivera, Anderson -0.1 Kahnle, Uberstine, La Sorsa, Coulombe -0.2 Monasterio

But, they didn't interview anyone else. HE WAS THEIR #1 PICK! That's what matters most, right?

There would probably be less pressure/stress, which is a big factor in emotional and mental triggers. It's hard to know. I think the breaking point was when Red called him the "butterfly Man." Who among us could ever recover from that bash? IMO, he can still turn is career around, but for this whole season, he seems to be more of a negative than a positive towards helping us win. He's had some big hits, and his speed has helped us score some runs no other runner could have scored, but overall, he's hurt the team. He currently has a 0.5 bWAR and a 0.5fWAR.

Romy hit .371 in SEPT with WOO. He's killed lefties in the past, but we kinda need someone who kills righties. (Romy did okay vs RHPs, last season.)

Are we certain Contreras won't play in NYC? Gasper will not come back, IMO. His injury is too severe. Replacement options are Campbell or Romy. (Arias might help, but keeping him off the 40 makes sense, since he's not clearly the best option.) It will be extremely difficult to score enough runs without Contreras, but I'd still think we have a good enough team to win. I wouldn't bet on it, but I don't bet anymore, so that's not saying much. We have very good pitching and defense. We've gotten where we are today in large part on the back of our bench. They've come through time and time again- sometimes just for short spurts, but nevertheless, they did, and then the next guy did, and the next. None of these guys were viewed as starters or even on the 26, 40 or even the team, at various points last winter: Rutschman, Monasterio, Sogard, Seigler, Cheng, Jones, White and these pitchers: Tolle, Bennett (Early>Sandoval) Miller, Guerrero, Gamboa, Olds, Rivera, Burgos, Paez, Uberstine & Samaniego. We have some guys back from injury (Anthony, Story, Rafaela and others,) back from the yips (Bello) and back for second and third looks (a whole bunch of players perhaps led by Sogard.) We can do this!

I'm super pumped about '27. The big loss could be Gray, but I think he may be back. Nick Martinez might be the second choice, as he won't get a long deal. Morejon would be a fantastic add to the pen, and if we got 2 of these 3 pitchers, I'd be fine with the Offense as is. Story, Duran and Yoshida would be fine as bench/depth pieces, but I doubt we'll view them that way. If we don't trade Story or Yoshida, I'm almost certain Duran will be gone. Somehow. Someway. I think Brez makes a few minor to moderate trades, this winter. He always does. Even if we somehow trade Story, I think we'll trade some middle IF depth too. (IKF is a FA.) Arias, Story, Mead Sogard, Seigler, Monasterio Romy, Cheng, Romero/Rodgers. I also think Brez would be okay with the OF depth of Jones/White and maybe Yoshida/Campbell/Eaton/Ward, assuming we trade Duran. We need some SP'er depth and some pen help, so maybe we trade for pitching. The return or replacement of Gray could be the key, and of course how Crochet does could be the biggest feature of the 2027 staff, but here is a look at the foundation. (Note some pitching depth is listed as starters and relievers.) SP: Crochet (Gray) Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello, Oviedo, Houck, Crawford Paez/Holobetz/Wehunt/Ziehl/Mullins RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Bello, Houck, Crawford, Slaten, Guerrero, Weissert, Moran, Gamboa, Kelly, Burgos, Bastardo, Olds, Samaniego, Rivera

It happened a long time ago, so I do believe. It seems worse in April and September.

Gotta hand Bello some props. He's done very well since the 8 run game back on June 4th. He had a couple back-to-back hiccups as AUG turned to Sept. (4 runs in both games,) but has let up - 0-1 ERs in all other 12 games counting today.