A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

He didn't get passed by Houck in the rankings until he tore his UCL in March '21. That was really the beginning of the end for him.

 

On soxprospects.com, some jockeying occured between the two:

 

At the end of 2017, Mata was 3rd and Houck 4th. By mid 2018 they both climbed up to 2-3, as Groome dropped.

 

They flipped in the Fall of 2018: Houck was th and Mata 7th. The gap widened by Spring of 2019: Houck 5th and Mata 10th.

 

They flipped agin in Summer 2019: Mata was back up to 4th and Houck dropped to 9th. That fall it was Mata 2nd and Houck 7th. He held his ground through 2020.

 

Another flip in spring of '21: Houck was 5th and Mata dropped to 11th. By the fall of '21, Houck had graduated and Mata was 10th.

 

Mata was as high as 6th in 2022 and 5th in early '23. By the end of '23, he was 27th.

[notin]

A few people, I think Bell was one and I felt Gray was a good idea, because his age would likely mean a shorter term deal- something we felt this management team might be attracted to.

 

I was on the Gray Train...

[notin]

Bloom scoured the waiver wire for relievers daily.

 

He gave up on the wrong ones.

 

Payamps? Good bye

Littell? Seen enough

Jacques? Gotta keeper!

Ort?

[moonslav59]

There was a lot of talk about Monty, but that was likely because he signed so late.

 

There was a lot of hot and cold on Snell, Gio, Stroman and Wacha.

 

I liked Gray and felt $25M x 3 was reasonable.

 

I think I was higher than most on Seth Lugo ($15M x 3)and Imanaga ($13M x 4,) but who knows, if they will continue doing well.

[moonslav59]

He gave up on the wrong ones.

 

Payamps? Good bye

Littell? Seen enough

Jacques? Gotta keeper!

Ort?

 

Springs

[Hugh2]

Loving those Chase Anderson starts, are you?

 

Houck/Crawford/Bello

[moonslav59]

Houck/Crawford/Bello

 

These are the best looking 3 homegrown SP'ers since _____?

[Bellhorn04]

There was a lot of talk about Monty, but that was likely because he signed so late.

 

He was a logical target for the Sox from the jump, though. He's been one of the best and most durable starters over the last 3 years. I think you produced his 3 year numbers many times in fact!

[Bellhorn04]

These are the best looking 3 homegrown SP'ers since _____?

 

Clemens/Hurst/Boyd ?

[notin]

Clemens/Hurst/Boyd ?

 

Unless you like Lester/Buchholz/Masterson

[moonslav59]

Unless you like Lester/Buchholz/Masterson

 

I was never that high on Masterson.

Buchholz was really good but couldn't stay healthy.

Lester was our best homegrown SP'er from Clemens to today.

 

I think I'd take Houck, Crawford and Bello, but Lester makes it hard to do.

 

I'd go with Clemens, Hurst and Boyd or Clemens Hurst and Ojeda.

[Larry Cook]

He gave up on the wrong ones.

 

Payamps? Good bye

Littell? Seen enough

Jacques? Gotta keeper!

Ort?

 

Colten brewer?????

[moonslav59]

Speaking of the best 3 homegrown starting pitchers, what was the best year for our rotation (homegrown or not?)

 

Since 1972, when I started following the Sox...

 

ERA-

77 2002

81 1990

82 1999

84 1993

85 2018

86 1986

87 1978

88 1992

 

FIP

3.13 1972

3.32 1990

3.57 1992

3.60 202

3.64 1976

 

fWAR

20.6 1990 Clemens, Boddicker, Harris, Kiecker, Bolton

19.9 2002 Pedro, Lowe, Burkett, F Castillo, Wake/Fossom

19.7 1999 Pedro, Portugal, Rapp, Saberhagen, Wake/Rose

18.2 2004 (32 GS+ by all 5) Pedro, Schilling, Lowe, Wake, Arroyo

18.1 1992 Clemens, Viola, Dopson, Hesketh, Gardiner/Darwin

17.7 2003 Pedro, Lowe, Wake, Burkett, Fossum/Suppan

17.5 1987 Clemens, Hurst, Nipper, Sellers, Stanley

17.2 1986 Clemens, Hurst, Nipper, Boyd, Seaver/Sellers/Brown

16.9 2001 Pedro, Nomo, Cone, F Castillo, Wake/Ohka

16.7 1972 Pattin, Siebert, McGlothen, Curtis, Tiant/Culp

[Larry Cook]

Chris sale improves to 4 and 1 tonight

[moonslav59]

Chris sale improves to 4 and 1 tonight

 

I'm glad he has stayed healthy for a full month.

 

I hope for the best for him, until he faces us in the WS, this October.

[moonslav59]

We are now 1.5 GB first place (BAL & NYY tied)

We are tied for the 6th best record in the AL (w DET for final PO slot.)

We are 0.5 behind KCR for #5 record.

We are in the top 10 in MLB by winning %.

 

Run Diff

+50 KCR (8th best record)

+48 ATL

+45 CLE

+41 BOS, NYY, LAD

+36 BAL

+27 PHI (2nd best record)

+26 ARI (14-17 record)

+25 MIL

 

[Hugh2]

He was a logical target for the Sox from the jump, though. He's been one of the best and most durable starters over the last 3 years. I think you produced his 3 year numbers many times in fact!

 

 

There was also reported mutual interest between Monty and the Sox, AND he was one of the only higher end free agents you could sign and NOT have to give up a draft pick.

[mvp 78]

There was a lot of talk about Monty, but that was likely because he signed so late.

 

There was a lot of hot and cold on Snell, Gio, Stroman and Wacha.

 

I liked Gray and felt $25M x 3 was reasonable.

 

I think I was higher than most on Seth Lugo ($15M x 3)and Imanaga ($13M x 4,) but who knows, if they will continue doing well.

 

People talked about Monty from day one of the offseason. His wife is currently in Boston. It seemed like a logical fit as they needed someone to provide quality innings and give the pen a break.

[Hugh2]

It's a little bitter sweet seeing Chris Sale succeed, don't get me wrong I'm happy for him but I always wanted that here. Still, he looked like a Cy Young candidate last year for a brief period of time before he got hurt. He is still yet to stay healthy for a full season in about a 1/2 a decade and he's 35 now.

 

His arm injury was legit, but a lot of his injuries afterwards seemed a little fluky and unlucky. Would be a little ironic for him to be dominate for Atlanta for years. Still, he was never going to be here after 2024 no matter what, so getting 6 years of team control for a young guy was the right move. Especially seeing how well our young pitchers have started to perform this year.

 

It's entirely possible for two teams to both win the trade. Still, got to get a look at Grissom.......who deserves a long term look. I hope people don't judge him if he doesn't light the world on fire the first week or two.

[mvp 78]

Houck/Crawford/Bello

 

Winckowski opener.

[mvp 78]

Bello is 95th in starter fWAR and 108th in IP. He seems to be sliding in as a serviceable 3rd starter.

[Old Red]

People talked about Monty from day one of the offseason. His wife is currently in Boston. It seemed like a logical fit as they needed someone to provide quality innings and give the pen a break.

 

Monty according to Heyman didn’t want anything to do with Boston, and wanted to go to a winning team, and at the time you couldn’t blame him.

[mvp 78]

Monty according to Heyman didn’t want anything to do with Boston, and wanted to go to a winning team, and at the time you couldn’t blame him.

 

That's not true at all. Monty would have wanted to come to Boston, Boston didn't want to pay the right amount. They were in negotiations at one point. Why make stuff up?

Edited May 2, 2024 by mvp 78

[Old Red]

That's not true at all. Monty wanted to come to Boston, Boston didn't want to pay the right amount. They were in negotiations at one point. Why make stuff up?

 

I’m just reporting what Heyman said, and saying the Red Sox, and Monty were in negotiations doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot. The Red Sox supposedly offered the Yam Man a contract too, so would you call that in negotiations? There were all kinds of so called rumors this past offseason involving the zRed Sox getting rid of this one, and that one, and they are still all in Boston.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com asks...

 

Is Boston’s rotation legit?

 

Just as everyone expected, the Red Sox have the top starting rotation in baseball this year. Hold on, what?

 

It’s true. Red Sox starters led the Majors with a 2.07 ERA and 3.03 FIP through the end of April. That 2.07 ERA is the lowest by a team’s rotation through the first 30 games of a season in the Wild Card era (since 1995). Despite starters Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock currently sidelined with injuries, Boston's rotation has continued to produce.

 

Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford aren’t just the top two starters in Boston’s rotation -- they’re two of the best starters in the Majors right now. By FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement, Houck and Crawford were tied with Zack Wheeler for the top WAR (1.4) among starting pitchers through the end of April. Houck and Crawford have combined to post a 1.49 ERA in 72 2/3 innings with 75 strikeouts, 16 walks and just one home run allowed.

-- Brent Maguire

[Hugh2]

I’m just reporting what Heyman said, and saying the Red Sox, and Monty were in negotiations doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot. The Red Sox supposedly offered the Yam Man a contract too, so would you call that in negotiations? There were all kinds of so called rumors this past offseason involving the zRed Sox getting rid of this one, and that one, and they are still all in Boston.

 

Are these the same guys reporting all the "reported mutual interest" in every free agent. Just not sure when we should or should not believe the reports.

 

This conversation has happened time and time again, for the most part, guys are going to who pays them. I'm fully confident Montgomery would have signed here had we offered him the most money.

[Hugh2]

I suppose if we WERE going to believe the Media when it comes to Boston we should belive the NEW YORK POST of all things hahaha

[Old Red]

Are these the same guys reporting all the "reported mutual interest" in every free agent. Just not sure when we should or should not believe the reports.

 

This conversation has happened time and time again, for the most part, guys are going to who pays them. I'm fully confident Montgomery would have signed here had we offered him the most money.

The report on Monty was there was a zoom call between him, and the Red Sox, but no formal offer was made. I guess you could call that in negotiations.

[Old Red]

I suppose if we WERE going to believe the Media when it comes to Boston we should belive the NEW YORK POST of all things hahaha

 

We’ll all the wishing, and hoping that went on on here didn’t get anyone to come to Boston, and some actually believed the Red Sox had a chance at the Yam Man.

[moonslav59]

Bello is 95th in starter fWAR and 108th in IP. He seems to be sliding in as a serviceable 3rd starter.

 

He started off, slowly, last year too. I'm hoping he turns it up a notch, again.

 

Also, you should like this:

 

FIP

4.54 in '23 (4.10 career)

4.04 in 2024

 

In 2023 he was at this on May 2nd (3GS)

6.57 ERA

5.61 FIP

 

From May 2 to Sept 14th, he went:

3.40 ERA

4.13 FIP

 

May 2 to end of 2023 season:

4.04

4.44