A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Randy Red Sox]

Reese McGuire is only 29 with arbitration year 3 in 2025.

 

If we're out of it, would you trade him? Are we ready for Teel by July?

 

We're either all in or not in Teel, Anthony and Mayer.

 

We gave Rafaela an 8 year deal despite his inexperience. (I was all for it).

 

I would love to see all three a Fenway in September (if not sooner).

 

might be the only thing worth watching by then

[Randy Red Sox]

Sounds like a conditional call.

 

Sox will win more than 70 moon {sadly} enough to stay in the mushy middle and pacify the bulk of fans

[moonslav59]

Sox will win more than 70 moon {sadly} enough to stay in the mushy middle and pacify the bulk of fans

 

I don't think anyone will b e pacified with a 70-80 win season.

 

If we lose that many and do nothing, this winter, it's going to get real ugly.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't think anyone will b e pacified with a 70-80 win season.

 

If we lose that many and do nothing, this winter, it's going to get real ugly.

 

It's real ugly right freaking now. This opening Fenway series was an embarrassment.

[moonslav59]

It's real ugly right freaking now. This opening Fenway series was an embarrassment.

 

It will get worse, if JH sits on his hands, this winter.

 

At least it's interesting to see how long the streak of good starts lasts.

[a700hitter]

This is not a good roster with Story and Pivetta. Without them, the roster just will not be able to compete. They can’t produce enough runs for an over producing pitching staff to get wins. As the season wears on, the lack of rotation depth will cause the rotation to fall apart and the extra load on the bullpen will burn out the relief corp right after the All Star break. They will be out of the

contention for post season by August. Tickets will be reasonably priced on the secondary market. That will be the only upside.

[vegasbob]

This is not a good roster with Story and Pivetta. Without them, the roster just will not be able to compete. They can’t produce enough runs for an over producing pitching staff to get wins. As the season wears on, the lack of rotation depth will cause the rotation to fall apart and the extra load on the bullpen will burn out the relief corp right after the All Star break. They will be out of the

contention for post season by August. Tickets will be reasonably priced on the secondary market. That will be the only upside.

 

Existing bullpen arms will be gassed by May 15, unless starters can stretch out more innings. Right now , you could project 680-700 innings needed from the pen. With 8-9 slots , not individuals, that an average load of 80-85 innings.

 

Last year Winckowski, with 1 start, booked 84 innings. The next highest reliever was Martin with 51 and Bernandino with 50. Tells me the Sox will need about another 8-10 names, beyond the current 8 to rack up 700 innings . Keep the Worcester bus running and an eye on the DFA lists across baseball

[Old Red]

Once again the Sox got BROOMED at home, and well deserved too. Sounds familiar like last year. Yes you can talk about how good the starters have done, and how low their ERA is, but the BP is not only throwing lots of innings, but lots of pitches too. Wink threw a lot of pitches, Martin threw a lot of pitches for 1 inning, and now Kelley I guess has been relegated to a 2/3 of an innings guy, and threw 19 pitches. You can talk DRS all you want, and yes Story out leaves a big hole at SS, but when you can’t even make routine plays, and I’ll say it again just make routine plays then you are gonna suck on D. Cora’s Run Prevention Unit that he created in ST seems to be a fantasy in itself, and throw in a lack of hitting, which is a recipe for disaster. How many guys on the 26 right now should be in Worcester? some on here think Brez has everything under control.

[Elktonnick]

That ain't it. Look for year-round baseball leagues and tweaked mechanics to increase.velocity through increased torque for.your answer

I go along with Dr Marshall's thinking. Increased injuries since the intro of the cutter and slider.

[Elktonnick]

Existing bullpen arms will be gassed by May 15, unless starters can stretch out more innings. Right now , you could project 680-700 innings needed from the pen. With 8-9 slots , not individuals, that an average load of 80-85 innings.

 

Last year Winckowski, with 1 start, booked 84 innings. The next highest reliever was Martin with 51 and Bernandino with 50. Tells me the Sox will need about another 8-10 names, beyond the current 8 to rack up 700 innings . Keep the Worcester bus running and an eye on the DFA lists across baseball

Yup! Cora burns out pitchers at an alarming rate.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yup! Cora burns out pitchers at an alarming rate.

 

Ya, right -- it must be the manager, and have nothing to do with giving opposing teams five outs an inning.

 

And those aren't even official errors, like when the Sox can't even turn simple double plays in two late innings in a row -- when Hamilton misses the bag, and Wong (the one position player on the bench, forced to play second base) bobbles a routine grounder...

 

Brez told us any changes would be infernal.

[Elktonnick]

Ya, right -- it must be the manager, and have nothing to do with giving opposing teams five outs an inning.

 

And those aren't even official errors, like when the Sox can't even turn simple double plays in two late innings in a row -- when Hamilton misses the bag, and Wong (the one position player on the bench, forced to play second base) bobbles a routine grounder...

 

Brez told us any changes would be infernal.

Cora has burnt out bullpens throughout his career. Starters aren't properly stretched out in st. This has been Cora's MO for years. Then he uses relievers for the minimum using three or four per game. What really burns out relievers though is warming up guys then not using them. BTW speaking of defense who was the idiot who insisted on using his buddy Kike at shortstop when everyone except him knew he stunk.

[Tedballgame]

If the socks have to rely on Isaiah Campbell, they will be lucky to win 80 games. He sucks.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Cora has burnt out bullpens throughout his career. Starters aren't properly stretched out in st. This has been Cora's MO for years. Then he uses relievers for the minimum using three or four per game. What really burns out relievers though is warming up guys then not using them. BTW speaking of defense who was the idiot who insisted on using his buddy Kike at shortstop when everyone except him knew he stunk.

 

I'm sure most posters agree with you, and are certain that a new manager will instantly transform Pablo Reyes, David Hamilton, Enmanuel Valdez and Connor Wong into Major League infielders.

[Bellhorn04]

Cora has burnt out bullpens throughout his career. Starters aren't properly stretched out in st. This has been Cora's MO for years. Then he uses relievers for the minimum using three or four per game. What really burns out relievers though is warming up guys then not using them.

 

What blatant nonsense.

[mvp 78]

Reese McGuire is only 29 with arbitration year 3 in 2025.

 

If we're out of it, would you trade him? Are we ready for Teel by July?

 

We're either all in or not in Teel, Anthony and Mayer.

 

We gave Rafaela an 8 year deal despite his inexperience. (I was all for it).

 

I would love to see all three a Fenway in September (if not sooner).

 

I'm not sure there is a huge reason to trade Reese at the deadline. He'd only bring back a reliever or middling prospect. Probably better to hold onto him just in case you need him at some point. If his trade value was higher, sure.

[Old Red]

What blatant nonsense.

 

I’m not blaming Cora, but like I posted earlier that the BP threw a lot of pitches just in the 3 games against Baltimore.

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox starters are averaging 5.26 innings a start.

 

MLB average - 5.22 innings a start.

 

So yeah, it must be Cora's bad management, nothing to do with the way the game is now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’m not blaming Cora, but like I posted earlier that the BP threw a lot of pitches just in the 3 games against Baltimore.

 

It is baffling how they took so many pitches to record five outs an inning, and how much work they had to do, relieving all those established work horse starters that Breslow's 32 Assistant VPs scouted, recruited and signed in the offseason to lead and supply legitimate depth to the big league pitching staff.

[Old Red]

Red Sox starters are averaging 5.26 innings a start.

 

MLB average - 5.22 innings a start.

 

So yeah, it must be Cora's bad management, nothing to do with the way the game is now.

 

All I’m saying is Wink, and Martin were unavailable last night, because they had thrown so many pitches the two nights before,and for some reason Kenley could only pitch 2/3 of an inning, and took 19 pitches doing so. It doesn’t matter what other teams did.

[Old Red]

It is baffling how they took so many pitches to record five outs an inning, and how much work they had to do, relieving all those established work horse starters that Breslow's 32 Assistant VPs scouted, recruited and signed in the offseason to lead and supply legitimate depth to the big league pitching staff.

 

The team not being able to make routine plays behind them has certainly led to more pitches being thrown.

[Bellhorn04]

All I’m saying is Wink, and Martin were unavailable last night, because they had thrown so many pitches the two nights before,and for some reason Kenley could only pitch 2/3 of an inning, and took 19 pitches doing so. It doesn’t matter what other teams did.

 

My post was directed toward the Elkmeister.

[mvp 78]

It will get worse, if JH sits on his hands, this winter.

 

At least it's interesting to see how long the streak of good starts lasts.

 

This isn't the best post for it, but...

 

1. The team needs an ACE. Identify the prospects you want to keep and trade the others to get one.

 

2. Trade Yoshida even if you have to eat the contract. Just admit the mistake. Even his upside isn't enough for a fulltime DH.

 

3. Treat Story as if he's the DH/2B/SS. You can no longer plug him in as a starter on your 26 man roster. You need to mentally move on. If he can fill in from time to time in the IF, great. If not, it's easier to replace and injured DH.

 

4. Mayer becomes the Opening Day SS and you need to take whatever lumps come his way. There may be a learning curve, but it is what it is.

 

5. If Grissom doesn't show to be a starter at 2B during 2024, Sox need to actually find someone who can project to go out and field the position 150 times a year (not named Story). Gleyber Torres? Kim? Trade? We know they have a bunch of guys on the farm (Paulino, Meidroth, Sogard, Yorke), but I'm not sure we're comfortable going to them at the moment.

 

6. Determine if Slaten is the 8th inning guy or 9th inning guy and find a complimentary piece to go along with him. Continue to build out the pen.

 

7. Anthony is the Opening Day RF. Rafaela is the Opening Day CF. Duran is the Opening Day LF. That should be the OF for 120+ games year in and year out until someone better comes along.

 

8. Extend Casas only if the deal is reasonable. Don't overextend for a guy that isn't the complete package yet. Not every player is the next Mookie Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

This isn't the best post for it, but...

 

1. The team needs an ACE. Identify the prospects you want to keep and trade the others to get one.

 

2. Trade Yoshida even if you have to eat the contract. Just admit the mistake. Even his upside isn't enough for a fulltime DH.

 

3. Treat Story as if he's the DH/2B/SS. You can no longer plug him in as a starter on your 26 man roster. You need to mentally move on. If he can fill in from time to time in the IF, great. If not, it's easier to replace and injured DH.

 

4. Mayer becomes the Opening Day SS and you need to take whatever lumps come his way. There may be a learning curve, but it is what it is.

 

5. If Grissom doesn't show to be a starter at 2B during 2024, Sox need to actually find someone who can project to go out and field the position 150 times a year (not named Story). Gleyber Torres? Kim? Trade? We know they have a bunch of guys on the farm (Paulino, Meidroth, Sogard, Yorke), but I'm not sure we're comfortable going to them at the moment.

 

6. Determine if Slaten is the 8th inning guy or 9th inning guy and find a complimentary piece to go along with him. Continue to build out the pen.

 

7. Anthony is the Opening Day RF. Rafaela is the Opening Day CF. Duran is the Opening Day LF. That should be the OF for 120+ games year in and year out until someone better comes along.

 

8. Extend Casas only if the deal is reasonable. Don't overextend for a guy that isn't the complete package yet. Not every player is the next Mookie Betts.

 

Damn, A Realistic Look at 2025 already...

[Old Red]

My post was directed toward the Elkmeister.

 

I figured that mostly, but I was just throwing out there my thought. It’s one thing to lose, but to keep losing the same way 3 years in a row where the Red Sox just can’t play fundamental baseball, and make routine plays. The roster is what it is, but routine plays still should be made regardless.

[notin]

Red Sox starters are averaging 5.26 innings a start.

 

MLB average - 5.22 innings a start.

 

So yeah, it must be Cora's bad management, nothing to do with the way the game is now.

 

One strategy I’m not getting yet is using the closer in the ninth inning of tied home games.

 

As the closer is ideally in most teams one of, if not the best RP, it makes sense to hold him for the 10th inning, as ghost runners make that inning tougher. In tie road games, the closer in the ninth makes sense since you want to force another inning. But in home games, I’d think use the lesser reliever in the ninth and if he can keep the tie, you have an edge with regards to remaining bullpen arms…

[Old Red]

This isn't the best post for it, but...

 

1. The team needs an ACE. Identify the prospects you want to keep and trade the others to get one.

 

2. Trade Yoshida even if you have to eat the contract. Just admit the mistake. Even his upside isn't enough for a fulltime DH.

 

3. Treat Story as if he's the DH/2B/SS. You can no longer plug him in as a starter on your 26 man roster. You need to mentally move on. If he can fill in from time to time in the IF, great. If not, it's easier to replace and injured DH.

 

4. Mayer becomes the Opening Day SS and you need to take whatever lumps come his way. There may be a learning curve, but it is what it is.

 

5. If Grissom doesn't show to be a starter at 2B during 2024, Sox need to actually find someone who can project to go out and field the position 150 times a year (not named Story). Gleyber Torres? Kim? Trade? We know they have a bunch of guys on the farm (Paulino, Meidroth, Sogard, Yorke), but I'm not sure we're comfortable going to them at the moment.

 

6. Determine if Slaten is the 8th inning guy or 9th inning guy and find a complimentary piece to go along with him. Continue to build out the pen.

 

7. Anthony is the Opening Day RF. Rafaela is the Opening Day CF. Duran is the Opening Day LF. That should be the OF for 120+ games year in and year out until someone better comes along.

 

8. Extend Casas only if the deal is reasonable. Don't overextend for a guy that isn't the complete package yet. Not every player is the next Mookie Betts.

 

Not bad for a beginner.

[Bellhorn04]

As the closer is ideally in most teams one of, if not the best RP, it makes sense to hold him for the 10th inning, as ghost runners make that inning tougher. In tie road games, the closer in the ninth makes sense since you want to force another inning. But in home games, I’d think use the lesser reliever in the ninth and if he can keep the tie, you have an edge with regards to remaining bullpen arms…

 

And if lesser reliever like Campbell gets lit up, does it matter if it's the 9th or 10th? If it's the 9th you get to go home earlier, that's all...

[Old Red]

One strategy I’m not getting yet is using the closer in the ninth inning of tied home games.

 

As the closer is ideally in most teams one of, if not the best RP, it makes sense to hold him for the 10th inning, as ghost runners make that inning tougher. In tie road games, the closer in the ninth makes sense since you want to force another inning. But in home games, I’d think use the lesser reliever in the ninth and if he can keep the tie, you have an edge with regards to remaining bullpen arms…

I don’t have a problem with Kenley coming in last night when he did, and to me it depends on what part of the BO you are facing. That’s why Martin pitched the 7th the other night, and not the 8th. Kenley had a hard enough time last night getting through 2/3.

[moonslav59]

Existing bullpen arms will be gassed by May 15, unless starters can stretch out more innings. Right now , you could project 680-700 innings needed from the pen. With 8-9 slots , not individuals, that an average load of 80-85 innings.

 

Last year Winckowski, with 1 start, booked 84 innings. The next highest reliever was Martin with 51 and Bernandino with 50. Tells me the Sox will need about another 8-10 names, beyond the current 8 to rack up 700 innings . Keep the Worcester bus running and an eye on the DFA lists across baseball

 

The pen was certainly overworked, last season. Using 28 players in relief tells a big story about 2023. Our pen pitched 656 innings, last year, but that does not count the opener's IP in all those pen games. (15 GS and about 22 more IP)

 

This year, we are 10 in SP'er IP, with one team ahead of us having 2 more GSs. Last year our SP'ers were 27th in IP. It has not been a problem, so far, in fact, it has been a strength. While 5 IP does not seem like much, we've had no starts of 1-4 IP or the need for any "pen games," yet.

 

Our pen is on pace for less IP than 2023 (623 to 656 w/o adding the 22 IP from openers by pen arms)

 

Gone are the days of 6-7 man pens. It's 8, now. We need to improve on Joely & Campbell, as of now.