A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

Some quick research indicates that you're right - the Tommy John epidemic started in 2014 and has been fairly steady since then.

 

But that's a long way from your initial statement that injury is 'a risk inherent to every player ever'.

 

Pitchers are much more susceptible to injury than position players over the last decade.

 

Fair.

 

But if pitchers are riskier, doesn’t it make more sense to lock them up when they’re cheaper? As opposed to paying too dollar and THEN shelving them?

[redsoxrules]

For a 1b with a weak glove? I would wait and focus on locking up my SP cheap…

 

Devers has a weak glove. That didn't stop them for giving him a boatload. Yes I know he's more proven than Casas.

 

Casas has also potential to be a better hitter than Devers. Whether or not he will be it's too soon to tell.

[Nick]

Did I miss something? We all knew what Devers was all about. Everyone here screamed about locking him down. Now it seems many here are having buyers remorse.

 

He is here for ten years. Not sure why we keep talking about his contract.

 

At least he's on the field unlike Sale and Story.

[mvp 78]

I'd lock up Crawford and Houck before Casas. Despite repeated failed attempts by Bloom, first base is simply not the toughest position to fill adequately...

 

Neither are 5th starters.

[redsoxrules]

Did I miss something? We all knew what Devers was all about. Everyone here screamed about locking him down. Now it seems many here are having buyers remorse.

 

He is here for ten years. Not sure why we keep talking about his contract.

 

At least he's on the field unlike Sale and Story.

 

I was never for it for the amount he got. My max for him would have been 240. And even that would have been stretching it. Some of the players of his comparison are out producing him and getting paid way less

[notin]

Devers has a weak glove. That didn't stop them for giving him a boatload. Yes I know he's more proven than Casas.

 

Casas has also potential to be a better hitter than Devers. Whether or not he will be it's too soon to tell.

 

Based on what?

 

Last year at age 23, Casas had a .856 OPS and 24 HRs. Devers’ age 23 was the pandemic shortened 2020, but at age 22, Devers had a .916 OPS, 32 HRs, and 54 doubles.

 

Casas might be a bit behind Devers’ pace.

 

Not sure why you’re so pro-Casas but so anti-Devers…

[mvp 78]

Maybe you missed this, but there are some new numbers showing pitchers are getting injured at an unprecedented and accelerating rate.

 

Not true. Pitchers get TJS within the first 100 days moreso than the rest of the season. The only difference is that the names this year are bigger.

 

Over the same time period:

 

2024: 16 pro pitchers, 9 MLB

2021: 47 pro, 11 MLB

2015: 39 pro, 9 MLB

2014: 38 pro, 11 MLB

 

In fact, the 16 professional pitchers getting TJS is the lowest amount in the first 100 calendar days since 2013!

[Old Red]

Based on what?

 

Last year at age 23, Casas had a .856 OPS and 24 HRs. Devers’ age 23 was the pandemic shortened 2020, but at age 22, Devers had a .916 OPS, 32 HRs, and 54 doubles.

 

Casas might be a bit behind Devers’ pace.

 

Not sure why you’re so pro-Casas but so anti-Devers…

Maybe $300M reasons why.

[mvp 78]

If Freeman was a free agent he would be getting over 30Mil easily in today's game. Maybe 25 was stretching a bit but I'm sure he's looking for 20 Mil for sure

 

This is what Alonso has earned so far:

 

555k

650k

675k

7.4M

14.5M

20.5M

 

Casas is well behind Alonso right now. Why would the Sox buy out ARB years when the next 4 years may only AAV 10M?

[mvp 78]

If he goes out and hits 30 dingers this year with an OBP over 380 he is going to get rich

 

Not if he can't field 1b.

[mvp 78]

Did I miss something? We all knew what Devers was all about. Everyone here screamed about locking him down. Now it seems many here are having buyers remorse.

 

He is here for ten years. Not sure why we keep talking about his contract.

 

At least he's on the field unlike Sale and Story.

 

At least Devers can hit. Just put a defensive minded SS next to him and you're good.

[Old Red]

Not if he can't field 1b.

 

He hasn’t been a problem at 1B so far this year like he was last year.

[mvp 78]

Maybe $300M reasons why.

 

You feel sorry for Henry's checkbook? Didn't know you leaned that way!

[mvp 78]

He hasn’t been a problem at 1B so far this year like he was last year.

 

Have you been watching the games? He's not good over there. He hasn't looked any better than last year from what I've seen.

[Old Red]

You feel sorry for Henry's checkbook? Didn't know you leaned that way!

 

No, but don’t you expect more out of Raffy at this point than you do from Casas?

[notin]

Maybe $300M reasons why.

 

I greatly prefer overpaying Devers to losing him after Betts and Bogaerts.

 

It would have been better for the Sox if he accepted the Matt Olson extension, but much worse if he simply walked…

[notin]

At least Devers can hit. Just put a defensive minded SS next to him and you're good.

 

I’d rather put a better fielding 3b over there and make Devers a 1b/DH…

[Old Red]

Have you been watching the games? He's not good over there. He hasn't looked any better than last year from what I've seen.

 

I’ve watched some, and I haven’t seen him make any errors. I remember a picture of him last year stretching forward for a throw from 2B that went sailing over his head. That was bad.

[mvp 78]

No, but don’t you expect more out of Raffy at this point than you do from Casas?

 

Devers has a career high BB rate and career low K rate. The hits just aren't falling in. Bad luck! 167 BABIP. His barrel rate is fine!

[mvp 78]

I’d rather put a better fielding 3b over there and make Devers a 1b/DH…

 

You would!

[mvp 78]

I’ve watched some, and I haven’t seen him make any errors. I remember a picture of him last year stretching forward for a throw from 2B that went sailing over his head. That was bad.

 

He already has one error so far. He just looks like the same guy to me. May take a few years for him to work it out.

[mvp 78]

I greatly prefer overpaying Devers to losing him after Betts and Bogaerts.

 

It would have been better for the Sox if he accepted the Matt Olson extension, but much worse if he simply walked…

 

They should have overpaid Mookie and traded the other two.

[Old Red]

He already has one error so far. He just looks like the same guy to me. May take a few years for him to work it out.

 

He’s never going to be a Boomer Scott, or Agon with the glove, and he’s still young enough to get better.

[notin]

You would!

 

Damn straight.

 

Just give me the chance!

[notin]

They should have overpaid Mookie and traded the other two.

 

Agreed, but I think that ship has sailed…

[Old Red]

Damn straight.

 

Just give me the chance!

 

Where is the money coming from?

[Nick]

I’d rather put a better fielding 3b over there and make Devers a 1b/DH…

 

I think I'm with you, probably at DH assuming Casas sticks at 1B mainly due to his height.

 

We should be building a championship team. This is the year to find out what we have......

 

 

CC We need an upgrade. Teel?

1B Casas

2B Grissom (he'll get his chance, we've been told by Brez)

SS Mayer

3B open

LF Anthony

CF Rafaela

RF O'Neill

DH Devers

 

I'm assuming Anthony is better defender than Duran.

 

We need to find stars.....

[mvp 78]

Damn straight.

 

Just give me the chance!

 

You'd also have Cesar Puello still sitting on the bench!

[moonslav59]

They should have overpaid Mookie and traded the other two.

 

Yup, or kept 2 and not extended Sale.

[notin]

He already has one error so far. He just looks like the same guy to me. May take a few years for him to work it out.

 

Last year he did make bad decisions.

 

I was at the games in Chicago against the White Sox. In the Sunday game of that series, Casas had the ball when Andrew Benintendi rounded 2b and was HALFWAY from second to third. (My seat was behind 1b so I had an excellent vantage point.). Not sure how far Benintendi appeared to be off second on TV, but he was halfway and stopped there, watching Casas with the ball. Casas noticed Benintendi and threw the ball to 2b. Benny broke for third and beat the second relay.

 

Casas had three options there.

 

1. Hold the ball and charge Benintendi, forcing him to commit to a base. (Best option)

2. Throw the ball to third. (Safest option.)

3. Throw the ball to 2b. (Worst by far.)

 

It’s just one play, but he couldn’t have handled it worse…