A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

Will the Sox regret their two extensions?

 

Time will tell. I still like both.

 

Extending Casas, Crawford and Houck might be nice.

[Old Red]

Time will tell. I still like both.

 

Extending Casas, Crawford and Houck might be nice.

 

Let’s see how Kut Man, and Houck finish out the year first, or if they finish out the year.

[moonslav59]

A while ago, I mentioned how our farm has really missed the boat on finding and or developing fine pitchers, especially starters, but that the few we have graduated, recently have been better than the previous 6-7 years, combined. Maybe go back to 2010 and include Workman + Barnes (2010-2016)

 

While the 2024 sample size is still very small, things do look brighter.

 

Crawford

Bello IFA '17)

Houck (drafted in '17)

Whitlock

Winckowski

 

Possibles:

Slaten

Sandlin

Fitts

Gambrell

Some RP'ers like Guerrero

 

The list of pitchers doing well in MLB from the Sox system, after Lester, Buch, Barnes ('11), Masterson, Workman ('10) & Papelbon is not as good as this list:

Aro '11

Bautista & DHern '13

Espinoza, Beeks & Kopech '14

Lakins & Poyner '15

Shawaryn '16

Am I missing anyone good from 2010-2016? Can I go back more than 7 years and still find this last 7 year crop still better?

[Dipre]

Don't know about the fielders but the pitching is clearly much tougher. They throw harder and with more spin, and they have shorter outings.

 

Yet top pitching gets injured more often, SP give less length, and you have more chances against the soft underbelly of a team's MRP as well as replacements for the pitchers affected by the TJS epidemic. It evens out.

[mvp 78]

Time will tell. I still like both.

 

Extending Casas, Crawford and Houck might be nice.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/breslow-red-sox-arent-close-on-additional-extensions.html

 

“(It’s) impossible to handicap perfectly what the chances are of getting another deal across the line. I would say, I don’t see anything as particularly close right now,” Breslow told reporters (link via Rob Bradford of WEEI). “I do think it makes sense at some point to focus on the season and give players some clarity around what they’re trying to accomplish every day and give us a chance to kind of assess more broadly what we’re trying to accomplish, what our vision is. So I wouldn’t ever say never, but I think it’s unlikely.”

[mvp 78]

Yet top pitching gets injured more often, SP give less length, and you have more chances against the soft underbelly of a team's MRP as well as replacements for the pitchers affected by the TJS epidemic. It evens out.

 

The soft underbelly now throws 100 mph.

[Dipre]

The soft underbelly now throws 100 mph.

 

Velocity =/= effectiveness.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kaleb-ort-672391?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[moonslav59]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/breslow-red-sox-arent-close-on-additional-extensions.html

 

“(It’s) impossible to handicap perfectly what the chances are of getting another deal across the line. I would say, I don’t see anything as particularly close right now,” Breslow told reporters (link via Rob Bradford of WEEI). “I do think it makes sense at some point to focus on the season and give players some clarity around what they’re trying to accomplish every day and give us a chance to kind of assess more broadly what we’re trying to accomplish, what our vision is. So I wouldn’t ever say never, but I think it’s unlikely.”

 

If we wait until Crawford and Houck have great seasons, the extension cost will rise sharply.

 

I'd like to see us extend Pivetta, but the injury might make that too iffy.

[notin]

Will the Sox regret their two extensions?

 

Not likely..

 

I doubt they regret extending Rafaela, even though he is one of those with the defensive reputation, but unlike White, he at least plays a position in which it can have a greater impact. As his AAV is only about $6.25mill, it might not be such a major regret, and the Sox have swallowed much bigger contracts, like Sandoval, Hanley and Rusney Castillo. Let's say Rafaela has a ceiling of Byron Buxton - 4.6 to 4.9 bWAR. If he reaches that, he is a bargain. But his floor is probably closer to Kevin Pillar (~1.5 to 2.0 bWAR). In the case of the latter, he still might not be a horrible investment, unless he gets replaced as a starter. Of course, injuries might change this somewhat.

 

Bello's extension only carries a $9mill AAV. So even if he flounders, this type of money gets you a Wade Miley/Alex Wood type pitcher today. Miley is probably a bit underappreciated (and an insufferable ******* according to some) and if Bello can maintain that level of performance, the Sox will not likely regret it too much. Really unless he succumbs to injury problems, the Sox have a guy paid like a mid-tier SP who has potential to be much more. If he peaks at a mid-tier performance, he is not untradable under his current contract. I'd say his chances of not living up to his deal rest solely on his ability take the mound every 5 days...

Edited April 11, 2024 by notin

[Old Red]

If we wait until Crawford and Houck have great seasons, the extension cost will rise sharply.

 

I'd like to see us extend Pivetta, but the injury might make that too iffy.

 

Let’s just extend the whole starting rotation. All of a sudden the Red Sox are supposed to be worrying that Houck is going to have a great season, and should lock him up now?

[mvp 78]

Velocity =/= effectiveness.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kaleb-ort-672391?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

Stuff+ leader Kaleb Ort. If his Stuff+ was so good, why didn't he pitch good?

[redsoxrules]

I think Casas will be hard to extend. I'm sure his camp is seeking around 25 Mil a year

[notin]

Let’s just extend the whole starting rotation. All of a sudden the Red Sox are supposed to be worrying that Houck is going to have a great season, and should lock him up now?

 

If Houck can be locked up to a deal like Bello with a ~$9mill AAV, he wouldn't even have to stay in the rotation to justify it. Set up men like Hector Neris and Matt Moore received $9mill this off-season. If you get him for less like a $5.5-6.5 mill, you find he is making about the same as some rather unexciting arms like John Brebbia, Keynan Middleton and Phil Maton. Why are teams paying Middleton and Brebbia that much, given they usually just each toss a couple innings and take the rest of the season to recover?

 

I would expect a Houck extension to be close to Bello's in terms of AAV. If so, go for it. If they can get him for Martin Perez money ($8mill), the Sox will most definitely not regret it...

[mvp 78]

If we wait until Crawford and Houck have great seasons, the extension cost will rise sharply.

 

I'd like to see us extend Pivetta, but the injury might make that too iffy.

 

I wouldn't extend Houck because he hasn't shown any reliability at all. If they could extend Crawford at 6/45, I think you go for it. Otherwise, why? These aren't top tier guys. They paid Bello as if he was going to be a 1/2. He's not there. They paid Rafaela as if he's a guaranteed MLB starter. He's not there.

 

These guys are Acuna, Albies or Strider. Casas wants to be paid like it, but he can't even field his position.

[notin]

I think Casas will be hard to extend. I'm sure his camp is seeking around 25 Mil a year

 

No way should he get that. Freddie Freeman is only getting $27mill AAV, and he is a former MVP with a Hall of Fame track record.

 

Casas has youth on his side here, but anything over $20mill is probably too much...

[mvp 78]

I think Casas will be hard to extend. I'm sure his camp is seeking around 25 Mil a year

 

Starting when? Is he really deserving of Freddie Freeman money? Why pay out that much during arb years?

[mvp 78]

No way should he get that. Freddie Freeman is only getting $27mill AAV, and he is a former MVP with a Hall of Fame track record.

 

Casas has youth on his side here, but anything over $20mill is probably too much...

 

Probably?

[vegasbob]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/breslow-red-sox-arent-close-on-additional-extensions.html

 

“(It’s) impossible to handicap perfectly what the chances are of getting another deal across the line. I would say, I don’t see anything as particularly close right now,” Breslow told reporters (link via Rob Bradford of WEEI). “I do think it makes sense at some point to focus on the season and give players some clarity around what they’re trying to accomplish every day and give us a chance to kind of assess more broadly what we’re trying to accomplish, what our vision is. So I wouldn’t ever say never, but I think it’s unlikely.”

 

Pretty clear by Breslow's own words that the brakes are on for further extensions this year. The ownership/FO needs to ascertain the trends at the ticket office, NESN ratings and BTW w's-L's before going deep on the rest of the younger guys.

 

As opposed to extensions, will anyone on this team get dumped at the trade deadline to clear the books a little more ? Looking at you, over 30s

[notin]

I wouldn't extend Houck because he hasn't shown any reliability at all. If they could extend Crawford at 6/45, I think you go for it. Otherwise, why? These aren't top tier guys. They paid Bello as if he was going to be a 1/2. He's not there. They paid Rafaela as if he's a guaranteed MLB starter. He's not there.

 

These guys are Acuna, Albies or Strider. Casas wants to be paid like it, but he can't even field his position.

 

Would you extend Houck for 3/$24mill or 4/$32mill? Fairly short contracts that stand a good chance at being worth it even if he does not stick as a starter.

 

Bello is NOT paid like 1/2. Bello has a lower AAV than Reynaldo Lopez, who barely has a track record as a starter...

[Old Red]

If Houck can be locked up to a deal like Bello with a ~$9mill AAV, he wouldn't even have to stay in the rotation to justify it. Set up men like Hector Neris and Matt Moore received $9mill this off-season. If you get him for less like a $5.5-6.5 mill, you find he is making about the same as some rather unexciting arms like John Brebbia, Keynan Middleton and Phil Maton. Why are teams paying Middleton and Brebbia that much, given they usually just each toss a couple innings and take the rest of the season to recover?

 

I would expect a Houck extension to be close to Bello's in terms of AAV. If so, go for it. If they can get him for Martin Perez money ($8mill), the Sox will most definitely not regret it...

Houck would still have to prove more to me to get locked up to an extension. Just, because Bello, and RAF Man has been extended, and Casas is being discussed I don’t think the Red Sox are going on a big spending spree for everyone.

[notin]

Probably?

 

I can't think of any 24yo first basemen with 1 year of service time that have been extended recently to draw a comparison...

[notin]

Houck would still have to prove more to me to get locked up to an extension. Just, because Bello, and RAF Man has been extended, and Casas is being discussed I don’t think the Red Sox are going on a big spending spree for everyone.

 

If Houck proves too much more, then the extension gets that much more expensive. If you lock him up early enough, you can get him for middle reliever/set up guy money. That reduces that chances of him being any sort of contractual albatross...

[notin]

I'd lock up Crawford and Houck before Casas. Despite repeated failed attempts by Bloom, first base is simply not the toughest position to fill adequately...

[Old Red]

If Houck proves too much more, then the extension gets that much more expensive. If you lock him up early enough, you can get him for middle reliever/set up guy money. That reduces that chances of him being any sort of contractual albatross...

 

All known, but he still has to prove more to me.

[Old Red]

I'd lock up Crawford and Houck before Casas. Despite repeated failed attempts by Bloom, first base is simply not the toughest position to fill adequately...

 

Casas comes first to me.

[Old Red]

I'd lock up Crawford and Houck before Casas. Despite repeated failed attempts by Bloom, first base is simply not the toughest position to fill adequately...

 

Before the season started were the Kut Man, and Houck hot commodities? Now after a couple of times through the rotation they are?

[notin]

Before the season started were the Kut Man, and Houck hot commodities? Now after a couple of times through the rotation they are?

 

Who said they were hot commodities?

 

They're good pitchers. They might not be good starting pitchers, but if they get extended now, they probably won't be paid like good starting pitchers. So either you have cheap starters or moderately paid relievers. What's the risk?

[Bellhorn04]

Who said they were hot commodities?

 

They're good pitchers. They might not be good starting pitchers, but if they get extended now, they probably won't be paid like good starting pitchers. So either you have cheap starters or moderately paid relievers. What's the risk?

 

Injury.

[notin]

All known, but he still has to prove more to me.

 

No he doesn't. Maybe he has to prove more to Breslow. But it's unlikely you and he have the same threshold for proof...

[notin]

Injury.

 

A risk inherent to every player ever. If either had a significant track record, that would be one thing. As of now, they do not...