A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[redsoxrules]

Based on what?

 

Last year at age 23, Casas had a .856 OPS and 24 HRs. Devers’ age 23 was the pandemic shortened 2020, but at age 22, Devers had a .916 OPS, 32 HRs, and 54 doubles.

 

Casas might be a bit behind Devers’ pace.

 

Not sure why you’re so pro-Casas but so anti-Devers…

 

I'm not pro anything. I'm just stating that Casas will cost more than you think. That's my argument

[moonslav59]

I think I'm with you, probably at DH assuming Casas sticks at 1B mainly due to his height.

 

We should be building a championship team. This is the year to find out what we have......

 

 

CC We need an upgrade. Teel?

1B Casas

2B Grissom (he'll get his chance, we've been told by Brez)

SS Mayer

3B open

LF Anthony

CF Rafaela

RF O'Neill

DH Devers

 

I'm assuming Anthony is better defender than Duran.

 

We need to find stars.....

 

I think Anthony would be RF and O'Neill LF.

 

Our catchers are doing very well, so far.

[redsoxrules]

You feel sorry for Henry's checkbook? Didn't know you leaned that way!

 

It hampers making other big moves as they will use the payroll excuse

[moonslav59]

By the end of 2025, we could see this 13 everyday roster at no added cost:

 

C: Teel & Wong

1B: Devers/Casas

2B: Grissom & Reyes

SS: Story/Mayer

3B: Mayer/Devers

LF: Duran/Abreu

CF: Rafaela/Anthony

RF: Anthony/Abreu

DH: Casas/Yoshida/Devers

[mvp 78]

I think Anthony would be RF and O'Neill LF.

 

Our catchers are doing very well, so far.

 

Anthony RF

 

I don't know how Teel will progress behind the dish. When he's ready back there, he can be called up. His ceiling is much higher than McGuire or Wong. I trust Breslow to figure out which guy to let go.

[notin]

Where is the money coming from?

 

I’m raising ticket prices, but only for cranky old timers in Maine!

[moonslav59]

Anthony RF

 

I don't know how Teel will progress behind the dish. When he's ready back there, he can be called up. His ceiling is much higher than McGuire or Wong. I trust Breslow to figure out which guy to let go.

 

McGuire will be traded (this summer or next). It's his last year of control in 2025. Wong has 3 arb years after 2025.

[notin]

McGuire will be traded (this summer or next). It's his last year of control in 2025. Wong has 3 arb years after 2025.

 

Plus Wong is Nature’s Perfect Backup Catcher…

[jad]

I’m raising ticket prices, but only for cranky old timers in Maine!

 

Well that's it, then! No way I'll pay the new prices (of course, I haven't been to a game in Fenway in two decades, but still ...)

[notin]

Well that's it, then! No way I'll pay the new prices (of course, I haven't been to a game in Fenway in two decades, but still ...)

 

I charge more if you don’t go to games…

[Randy Red Sox]

By the end of 2025, we could see this 13 everyday roster at no added cost:

 

C: Teel & Wong

1B: Devers/Casas

2B: Grissom & Reyes

SS: Story/Mayer

3B: Mayer/Devers

LF: Duran/Abreu

CF: Rafaela/Anthony

RF: Anthony/Abreu

DH: Casas/Yoshida/Devers

 

i have said for at least 2 years now that was Henry's plan

[mvp 78]

i have said for at least 2 years now that was Henry's plan

 

You didn't know Anthony and Teel were the plan 2 years ago.

[moonslav59]

Too bad Martin had a rough time, last night. One could try to blame the lack of ST'ing work or say he's just getting old, but for us to have a real chance at the playoffs, we almost certainly need him to turn it around.

 

Overall, our pen has been a plus. They have just a .631 OPS against. There have just been a handful of bad outings by RP'ers, this season, most notably by Joely, Wink and Martin and Campbell, last night. Of course, every pen looks much better after taking out 4-5 of their worst efforts every 12 games.

 

Slaten has looked like a steal.

0.00 ERA

.111 OPSA

6 Ks in 18 PAs with 0 BBs and just 1 hit.

 

Jansen missed much of ST'ing, too and has struggled with BBs (5 in 17 PAs,) but has gotten the job done.

0.00 ERA

.294 OPSA

 

Weissert has faced 18 batters and done fine.

0.00 ERA

.465 OPSA (3 Hits, 2BB and 5 Ks)

 

Bernardino has not pitched much (7 PAs)

0.00 ERA

.572 OPSA (1 Hit, 0BB, 3 K in 2 IP)

 

That's 16.1 IP by 4 RP'ers with no earned runs allowed.

 

Anderson has surprised this poster. In 24 PAs:

3.00 ERA

.598 OPSA (5 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks)

 

Wink has done well, except for that one game.

 

Martin was okay, before last night.

 

Joely & Campbell have been rocked, at least once.

[moonslav59]

You didn't know Anthony and Teel were the plan 2 years ago.

 

LOL.

 

Back then, it was Casas, Mayer, Duran and Yorke.

[Old Red]

You didn't know Anthony and Teel were the plan 2 years ago.

 

Teel was just drafted last year, so I doubt he was in their plans two years ago.

[Nick]

By the end of 2025, we could see this 13 everyday roster at no added cost:

 

C: Teel & Wong

1B: Devers/Casas

2B: Grissom & Reyes

SS: Story/Mayer

3B: Mayer/Devers

LF: Duran/Abreu

CF: Rafaela/Anthony

RF: Anthony/Abreu

DH: Casas/Yoshida/Devers

 

I may go with Yorke at 2B instead of Reyes.

[Nick]

Reese McGuire is only 29 with arbitration year 3 in 2025.

 

If we're out of it, would you trade him? Are we ready for Teel by July?

 

We're either all in or not in Teel, Anthony and Mayer.

 

We gave Rafaela an 8 year deal despite his inexperience. (I was all for it).

 

I would love to see all three a Fenway in September (if not sooner).

Edited April 11, 2024 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

I freely admit my mood has been vacillating about the team. But I think I'm entitled to that much, after back to back 78-84 seasons and being projected to be about the same this year. I predicted we would win 80 games, so my expectations have been low from the start. And that was before Story checked out for the year.

[Old Red]

I freely admit my mood has been vacillating about the team. But I think I'm entitled to that much, after back to back 78-84 seasons and being projected to be about the same this year. I predicted we would win 80 games, so my expectations have been low from the start. And that was before Story checked out for the year.

 

I was patient all offseason, and kept saying let’s wait to see how things look on March 28, which has now come, and gone, and now I think things look worse despite the good start on the road.

[moonslav59]

Had we asked what two positions would have the highest OPS, this year, we might have mostly agreed on 3B and 1B. The nest best might have had more debate, but probably SS, DH and LF might have been discussed. Here are the leading OPS by Position:

 

LF: 1.086 (mostly Duran, but O'Neill has raked there, too)

RF: .938 (carried by O'Neill)

C: .851 (thanks mostly to McGuire, but Wong has been okay.) McGuire is also 1-3 as a PH'er w a 2B.

 

The expected best/better positions:

.644 3B

.706 1B

.669 SS

.553 DH

 

[moonslav59]

Reese McGuire is only 29 with arbitration year 3 in 2025.

 

If we're out of it, would you trade him? Are we ready for Teel by July?

 

We're either all in or not in Teel, Anthony and Mayer.

 

We gave Rafaela an 8 year deal despite his inexperience. (I was all for it).

 

I would love to see all three a Fenway in September (if not sooner).

 

If we trade McGuire, I bet we call up Heineman or Hickey for the rest of '24.

 

We may wait and trade McGuire in the summer of '25, when Teel might be kicking down the door.

[Old Red]

Had we asked what two positions would have the highest OPS, this year, we might have mostly agreed on 3B and 1B. The nest best might have had more debate, but probably SS, DH and LF might have been discussed. Here are the leading OPS by Position:

 

LF: 1.086 (mostly Duran, but O'Neill has raked there, too)

RF: .938 (carried by O'Neill)

C: .851 (thanks mostly to McGuire, but Wong has been okay.) McGuire is also 1-3 as a PH'er w a 2B.

 

The expected best/better positions:

.644 3B

.706 1B

.669 SS

.553 DH

 

 

Casas got off to a slow start last year, and didn’t have that good of a ST, so it’s not surprising to see him get off to a slow start this year, and the same with Raffy.

[Elktonnick]

More stress, and strain throwing all that sweeper stuff?

The late Dr Mike Marshall predicted this. MLB largely banished him. If I were coaching pitching today I would ban the cutter. Stress the change up instead and fast ball control.

[dgalehouse]

It seems like an almost daily occurrence that a pitcher goes on the I.L. A lot of pitchers are blaming the pitch clock and the sticky stuff ban. The fans tend to like the pitch clock and the quicker pace of the game, so they will argue that the pitch clock is not the problem. They blame velocity, Little League, sweepers, spin and so on. But I think both sides will agree that it is a problem that needs to be looked into.

[moonslav59]

It seems like an almost daily occurrence that a pitcher goes on the I.L. A lot of pitchers are blaming the pitch clock and the sticky stuff ban. The fans tend to like the pitch clock and the quicker pace of the game, so they will argue that the pitch clock is not the problem. They blame velocity, Little League, sweepers, spin and so on. But I think both sides will agree that it is a problem that needs to be looked into.

 

The Astros have all 5 starters on the IL.

[Larry Cook]

I freely admit my mood has been vacillating about the team. But I think I'm entitled to that much, after back to back 78-84 seasons and being projected to be about the same this year. I predicted we would win 80 games, so my expectations have been low from the start. And that was before Story checked out for the year.

 

I see huge issues with the bullpen and infield defense. I am sticking with 70 wins for 2024. I remain hopeful that Martin, Jansen, pivetta and O’Neil have new homes in July.

[moonslav59]

I see huge issues with the bullpen and infield defense. I am sticking with 70 wins for 2024. I remain hopeful that Martin, Jansen, pivetta and O’Neil have new homes in July.

 

Sounds like a conditional call.

[Dipre]

I didn't miss it. I just don't buy into that media hype. They were getting injured as fast or faster in 2014 and 2015, but no one seems to mention that and only compares to 2023.

 

These injures are no unprecedented. There is significant precedent. But that precedent doesn't serve the purpose of the adding controversy to the pitch clock. Add to it the pitchers this year have largely had big names and corresponding pay checks. But these numbers are not unheard of.

 

Absolutely untrue, to the point where the MLB and MLBPA are jointly looking to pinpoint the cause of the increase in TJS specifically. I don't like posting from my phone, so I'll post some raw data tomorrow

[Dipre]

The late Dr Mike Marshall predicted this. MLB largely banished him. If I were coaching pitching today I would ban the cutter. Stress the change up instead and fast ball control.

 

That ain't it. Look for year-round baseball leagues and tweaked mechanics to increase.velocity through increased torque for.your answer

[vegasbob]

At least Devers can hit. Just put a defensive minded SS next to him and you're good.

 

One of the keys to Devers would be to surround him with the good defense SS, like Story was and at least 2, if not 3, other good bats in the lineup. Maybe Casas is one, maybe Duran could be a leadoff guy for a few years, maybe Ortiz could come out of retirement.