A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Old Red]

And if lesser reliever like Campbell gets lit up, does it matter if it's the 9th or 10th? If it's the 9th you get to go home earlier, that's all...

 

Exactly you have to get to the 10th for there to be a 10th.

[mvp 78]

Damn, A Realistic Look at 2025 already...

 

Gotta start some of that planning now.

[Old Red]

The pen was certainly overworked, last season. Using 28 players in relief tells a big story about 2023. Our pen pitched 656 innings, last year, but that does not count the opener's IP in all those pen games. (15 GS and about 22 more IP)

 

This year, we are 10 in SP'er IP, with one team ahead of us having 2 more GSs. Last year our SP'ers were 27th in IP. It has not been a problem, so far, in fact, it has been a strength. While 5 IP does not seem like much, we've had no starts of 1-4 IP or the need for any "pen games," yet.

 

Our pen is on pace for less IP than 2023 (623 to 656 w/o adding the 22 IP from openers by pen arms)

It’s not just the IP, but how many pitches are thrown.

[mvp 78]

I figured that mostly, but I was just throwing out there my thought. It’s one thing to lose, but to keep losing the same way 3 years in a row where the Red Sox just can’t play fundamental baseball, and make routine plays. The roster is what it is, but routine plays still should be made regardless.

 

Well, they really didn't change the roster all that much so why would they be better defensively?

[mvp 78]

Not bad for a beginner.

 

(❁´◡`❁)

[moonslav59]

This isn't the best post for it, but...

 

1. The team needs an ACE. Identify the prospects you want to keep and trade the others to get one.

 

2. Trade Yoshida even if you have to eat the contract. Just admit the mistake. Even his upside isn't enough for a fulltime DH.

 

3. Treat Story as if he's the DH/2B/SS. You can no longer plug him in as a starter on your 26 man roster. You need to mentally move on. If he can fill in from time to time in the IF, great. If not, it's easier to replace and injured DH.

 

4. Mayer becomes the Opening Day SS and you need to take whatever lumps come his way. There may be a learning curve, but it is what it is.

 

5. If Grissom doesn't show to be a starter at 2B during 2024, Sox need to actually find someone who can project to go out and field the position 150 times a year (not named Story). Gleyber Torres? Kim? Trade? We know they have a bunch of guys on the farm (Paulino, Meidroth, Sogard, Yorke), but I'm not sure we're comfortable going to them at the moment.

 

6. Determine if Slaten is the 8th inning guy or 9th inning guy and find a complimentary piece to go along with him. Continue to build out the pen.

 

7. Anthony is the Opening Day RF. Rafaela is the Opening Day CF. Duran is the Opening Day LF. That should be the OF for 120+ games year in and year out until someone better comes along.

 

8. Extend Casas only if the deal is reasonable. Don't overextend for a guy that isn't the complete package yet. Not every player is the next Mookie Betts.

 

I agree with all 8 points. Maybe, I need my head examined!

 

[Bellhorn04]

Gotta start some of that planning now.

 

If we put our heads together we can come up with a beautifully reasoned list of things they won't do.

[Old Red]

Well, they really didn't change the roster all that much so why would they be better defensively?

 

Because of Cora’s Run Prevention Unit that we heard so much about in ST. Is it to much to ask to make routine plays?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, they really didn't change the roster all that much so why would they be better defensively?

 

The fact we don't have a single good defensive infielder (after Story) really seems to be an issue!

[Bellhorn04]

Because of Cora’s Run Prevention Unit that we heard so much about in ST. Is it to much to ask to make routine plays?

 

I thought the Run Prevention Unit was a Breslow/Bailey thing.

[Old Red]

The fact we don't have a single good defensive infielder (after Story) really seems to be an issue!

 

That can’t be fixed.

[mvp 78]

That can’t be fixed.

 

Not this year.

[Old Red]

I thought the Run Prevention Unit was a Breslow/Bailey thing.

 

My bad your right, and Tek was involved too.

[Old Red]

Not this year.

 

It’s on year 3 now. I’ve seen better defense at the U OF Maine. At least they make the routine plays.

[Bellhorn04]

The guys in the Run Prevention Unit got a good laugh this morning when their computer models recommended that we not play Baltimore any more this year.

[mvp 78]

From JANUARY:

 

Red Sox chairman Tom Werner to @TomCaron - “We wouldn’t be having this conversation if we had league average defense” Says someone in the front office told him last night they would have had 9 to 10 more wins with league average defense.

 

They weren't wrong!

[notin]

And if lesser reliever like Campbell gets lit up, does it matter if it's the 9th or 10th? If it's the 9th you get to go home earlier, that's all...

 

Don’t you think it’s easier to get through the ninth inning where no one starts on base than it is the tenth inning when a runner is already in scoring position with no outs?

[Bellhorn04]

From JANUARY:

 

Red Sox chairman Tom Werner to @TomCaron - “We wouldn’t be having this conversation if we had league average defense” Says someone in the front office told him last night they would have had 9 to 10 more wins with league average defense.

 

They weren't wrong!

 

Boy they really addressed that critical deficiency in the offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

Don’t you think it’s easier to get through the ninth inning where no one starts on base than it is the tenth inning when a runner is already in scoring position with no outs?

 

Sure, but both teams get that runner in the 10th, so there's no advantage to either.

[Old Red]

Don’t you think it’s easier to get through the ninth inning where no one starts on base than it is the tenth inning when a runner is already in scoring position with no outs?

 

Depends on who’s coming up for 1 thing.

[moonslav59]

Well, they really didn't change the roster all that much so why would they be better defensively?

 

The idea (hope) was Story would play way more than 2023. Since the SS position is so critical, and we were awful, there, last year, that alone could have been a huge lift.

 

I can't imagine Grissom being worse than Arroyo/Valdez/Kike/Urias.

 

Sure, Rafaela was on the roster, before, but he hardly played, last year.

 

I get the idea that expecting Casas, Wong and some other players to improve on D might be nothing more than wishful thinking, but a defense with Story at SS, Grissom at 2B, Rafaela in CF and Duran over Yoshida in LF looks way better, on paper.

[moonslav59]

I thought the Run Prevention Unit was a Breslow/Bailey thing.

 

We did a pretty good job preventing runs, until the 10th inning, last night- thanks to our pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

The idea (hope) was Story would play way more than 2023. Since the SS position is so critical, and we were awful, there, last year, that alone could have been a huge lift.

 

I can't imagine Grissom being worse than Arroyo/Valdez/Kike/Urias.

 

Sure, Rafaela was on the roster, before, but he hardly played, last year.

 

I get the idea that expecting Casas, Wong and some other players to improve on D might be nothing more than wishful thinking, but a defense with Story at SS, Grissom at 2B, Rafaela in CF and Duran over Yoshida in LF looks way better, on paper.

 

We're snakebit!

[Old Red]

We did a pretty good job preventing runs, until the 10th inning, last night- thanks to our pitching.

 

So didn’t the other team with their pitching.

[Old Red]

We're snakebit!

 

Sale passed it on to Sorry Land.

[Bellhorn04]

We did a pretty good job preventing runs, until the 10th inning, last night- thanks to our pitching.

 

Hamilton's gaffe turned the game, right? When you have a motley crew patrolling the middle infield bad things seem to happen.

[mvp 78]

Boy they really addressed that critical deficiency in the offseason.

 

Grape job!

[Old Red]

Hamilton's gaffe turned the game, right? When you have a motley crew patrolling the middle infield bad things seem to happen.

 

Normally Ham Man, Valdez, and Romy would all be down at Worcester.

[mvp 78]

The idea (hope) was Story would play way more than 2023. Since the SS position is so critical, and we were awful, there, last year, that alone could have been a huge lift.

 

I can't imagine Grissom being worse than Arroyo/Valdez/Kike/Urias.

 

Sure, Rafaela was on the roster, before, but he hardly played, last year.

 

I get the idea that expecting Casas, Wong and some other players to improve on D might be nothing more than wishful thinking, but a defense with Story at SS, Grissom at 2B, Rafaela in CF and Duran over Yoshida in LF looks way better, on paper.

 

But they were still relying on Valdez/Reyes/Hamilton as emergency backups. Duran, you have to take the good and the bad with him. Rafaela, there's the learning curve of being young and under the bright lights for the first time. The catchers aren't great defensive players either. You already know 1B and 3B have issues. Easy enough to compliment the holes in the defense by replacing the cheap backups with guys that are defensively minded IMO.

[moonslav59]

The season is still young, and normally SP'ers are allowed to bring their pitch counts up, by mid to late April. With our current staff nearly devoid of 180+ IP type guys, I wonder if we will start upping their pitch counts.

 

'24 Avg Pitch count/ Max in '24

87/89 Bello (5.1 IP/GS)

87/90 Crawford (5.2)

91/99 Houck (6.0)

87/90 Pivetta (5.5)

86/101 Whitlock (4.8)

 

88/101 Team (5.3)

86 League average (5.2)

 

We have 4 QS (31%.) The league avg is 35%.

 

Note: these guys have pitched so well, which usually limits pitches per inning and maximizes IP/GS, so if they pitch any worse, they may pitch more pitches, but have the same or less IP/GS.