A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Old Red]

Who said they were hot commodities?

 

They're good pitchers. They might not be good starting pitchers, but if they get extended now, they probably won't be paid like good starting pitchers. So either you have cheap starters or moderately paid relievers. What's the risk?

 

At any rate I don’t think they are on the extended list right now, and Casas is.

[Bellhorn04]

A risk inherent to every player ever.

 

Maybe you missed this, but there are some new numbers showing pitchers are getting injured at an unprecedented and accelerating rate.

[Old Red]

No he doesn't. Maybe he has to prove more to Breslow. But it's unlikely you and he have the same threshold for proof...

 

Or you either, and that we agree.

[notin]

Casas comes first to me.

 

Casas has no track record right now. In his one season, he was worth less fWAR than Lamonte Wade Jr in SF. I suspect/hope he improves upon that, but he is very much an unknown. And the worst kind of unknown - one that wants to be paid significantly...

[Old Red]

Maybe you missed this, but there are some new numbers showing pitchers are getting injured at an unprecedented and accelerating rate.

 

More stress, and strain throwing all that sweeper stuff?

[notin]

Maybe you missed this, but there are some new numbers showing pitchers are getting injured at an unprecedented and accelerating rate.

 

I didn't miss it. I just don't buy into that media hype. They were getting injured as fast or faster in 2014 and 2015, but no one seems to mention that and only compares to 2023.

 

These injures are no unprecedented. There is significant precedent. But that precedent doesn't serve the purpose of the adding controversy to the pitch clock. Add to it the pitchers this year have largely had big names and corresponding pay checks. But these numbers are not unheard of.

[Old Red]

Casas has no track record right now. In his one season, he was worth less fWAR than Lamonte Wade Jr in SF. I suspect/hope he improves upon that, but he is very much an unknown. And the worst kind of unknown - one that wants to be paid significantly...

Then why are they trying to extend him. I think Casas has a lot brighter future than Houck, or the Kut Man, and Brez decision not yours.

[vegasbob]

No he doesn't. Maybe he has to prove more to Breslow. But it's unlikely you and he have the same threshold for proof...

 

Do box scores tell the story ?

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't extend Houck because he hasn't shown any reliability at all. If they could extend Crawford at 6/45, I think you go for it. Otherwise, why? These aren't top tier guys. They paid Bello as if he was going to be a 1/2. He's not there. They paid Rafaela as if he's a guaranteed MLB starter. He's not there.

 

These guys are Acuna, Albies or Strider. Casas wants to be paid like it, but he can't even field his position.

 

I'm not saying extend Houck at ace money or for 8 years.

[moonslav59]

Do box scores tell the story ?

 

To some, it's all part of the "eye test."

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't miss it. I just don't buy into that media hype. They were getting injured as fast or faster in 2014 and 2015, but no one seems to mention that and only compares to 2023.

 

These injures are no unprecedented. There is significant precedent. But that precedent doesn't serve the purpose of the adding controversy to the pitch clock. Add to it the pitchers this year have largely had big names and corresponding pay checks. But these numbers are not unheard of.

 

I guess this requires some further investigation.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I guess this requires some further investigation.

 

Cora says it's not the clock, but that pitchers don't rest their arms after the season any more. He says they all need a month or two to heal, but most guys dive right back into workouts, trying to get a jump on the offseason. Athletic overkill exists -- they're not crammin for examinin

[redsoxrules]

Starting when? Is he really deserving of Freddie Freeman money? Why pay out that much during arb years?

 

If Freeman was a free agent he would be getting over 30Mil easily in today's game. Maybe 25 was stretching a bit but I'm sure he's looking for 20 Mil for sure

[notin]

Then why are they trying to extend him. I think Casas has a lot brighter future than Houck, or the Kut Man, and Brez decision not yours.

 

I think they are trying to extend him to get him locked up through his arbitration years at a bargain price. Casas seems unwilling to play for a bargain price and prefers to go through arbitration unless Breslow hits his magic number.

 

Not sure why/if they are not trying to extend Houck or Crawford. It's very possible attempts have been made. If either is unamenable to to same type of negotiation, then those extensions get more difficult. But the lack of stories about the subject doesn't mean there have been no negotiations...

[redsoxrules]

Devers got close to Betts money and he is NOT in his league or close to it

[notin]

If Freeman was a free agent he would be getting over 30Mil easily in today's game. Maybe 25 was stretching a bit but I'm sure he's looking for 20 Mil for sure

 

Freeman got $27mill one season after winning an MVP award. Not sure his price tag goes up much higher 3 years later with him being 3 years older.

 

If Freeman did get a $30mill AAV today at age 34, it would probably one be for 1 or 2 years...

[notin]

Devers got close to Betts money and he is NOT in his league or close to it

 

Actually, Devers' AAV is higher than Betts.

 

I suspect there was a lot of PR involved in the Devers' negotiations. After losing out on Betts and Bogaerts, I don't think the Sox could afford to let Devers walk as well. And it is hard to extend a player one year from free agency without basically paying free agent money for him.

 

Plus Bett's deal was signed amidst a pandemic-induced shutdown. There may have been desperation on one or both sides to get something done...

[redsoxrules]

Casas is definitely seeking 20 Mil. If he improves on last year then it will just get higher

[redsoxrules]

Casas is definitely seeking 20 Mil. If he improves on last year then it will just get higher

 

If he goes out and hits 30 dingers this year with an OBP over 380 he is going to get rich

[redsoxrules]

Freeman got $27mill one season after winning an MVP award. Not sure his price tag goes up much higher 3 years later with him being 3 years older.

 

If Freeman did get a $30mill AAV today at age 34, it would probably one be for 1 or 2 years...

 

I meant if Freeman was still in his 20's

[moonslav59]

Devers got close to Betts money and he is NOT in his league or close to it

 

I agree, totally. I will add that Betts signed during the uncertainty of COVID, and Devers signed after several years of rather high inflation, so it's not really apples to apples, despite both being around $310M.

[moonslav59]

Casas is definitely seeking 20 Mil. If he improves on last year then it will just get higher

 

He's not getting $20M to add 1-2 years to the Sox team control.

 

What will he get, without extending, for one more pre-arb year plus 3 arbs? It won't be $80M/4.

[redsoxrules]

I agree, totally. I will add that Betts signed during the uncertainty of COVID, and Devers signed after several years of rather high inflation, so it's not really apples to apples, despite both being around $310M.

 

Which exactly my point that Casas will get more than people think on here

[notin]

Do box scores tell the story ?

 

On everything but line drives. There all line drives in the box score…

[notin]

If he goes out and hits 30 dingers this year with an OBP over 380 he is going to get rich

 

Ok but what if he doesn’t? Only 6 players reached both of those plateaus last season. And Freeman missed by one HR…

[moonslav59]

Which exactly my point that Casas will get more than people think on here

 

You mean, after his years of control?

[redsoxrules]

Ok but what if he doesn’t? Only 6 players reached both of those plateaus last season. And Freeman missed by one HR…

 

That's the gamble you take. Casas might bet on himself and hold out on a contract rather than taking what the Sox are offering.

 

And if your the Red Sox, how much are you willing to give a player based on one year

[notin]

I meant if Freeman was still in his 20's

 

I’m not even sure what this means.

 

Freeman did play in his 20s and never approached that kind of money, accepting an extension from Atlanta of about $105mill over 5 years at age 27. A Freeman in his 20s didn’t have an MVP award under his belt and had 2 of his 3 best seasons (by bWAR) in 2022 and 2023…

[notin]

That's the gamble you take. Casas might bet on himself and hold out on a contract rather than taking what the Sox are offering.

 

And if your the Red Sox, how much are you willing to give a player based on one year

 

For a 1b with a weak glove? I would wait and focus on locking up my SP cheap…

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't miss it. I just don't buy into that media hype. They were getting injured as fast or faster in 2014 and 2015, but no one seems to mention that and only compares to 2023.

 

These injures are no unprecedented. There is significant precedent. But that precedent doesn't serve the purpose of the adding controversy to the pitch clock. Add to it the pitchers this year have largely had big names and corresponding pay checks. But these numbers are not unheard of.

 

Some quick research indicates that you're right - the Tommy John epidemic started in 2014 and has been fairly steady since then.

 

But that's a long way from your initial statement that injury is 'a risk inherent to every player ever'.

 

Pitchers are much more susceptible to injury than position players over the last decade.