A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

I think so.

 

He seemed like a typical, boring MR guy that you bring in if the starter can't g0 five innings.

 

Of course, for most of the off-season, I thought the Sox would have Winckowski and Schreiber in front of Martin and Jansen...

 

Wouldn't you also view Weissert, Joely and Slaten as "typical, boring MR guys," too? We had to move one of them to #3.

[notin]

Wouldn't you also view Weissert, Joely and Slaten as "typical, boring MR guys," too? We had to move one of them to #3.

 

Ahead of Winckowski?

[notin]

Wouldn't you also view Weissert, Joely and Slaten as "typical, boring MR guys," too? We had to move one of them to #3.

 

For most of the off-season, the Sox looked like the bullpen would have Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Bernardino, and one of Houck or Whitlock. Why would anyone put Campbell third?

 

The trade of Schreiber and the injury to Giolito dug into this depth, and the inexplicable demotion of Bernardino didn't help. But none of this still ever made any of the arm you mentioned as the third best option in the bullpen.

 

And two weeks into the season, both Slaten and Weissert look better, as well...

[Old Red]

I think so.

 

He seemed like a typical, boring MR guy that you bring in if the starter can't g0 five innings.

 

Of course, for most of the off-season, I thought the Sox would have Winckowski and Schreiber in front of Martin and Jansen...

 

The plan all along was to have either Whit, or Houck in the BP also, and ONLy changed when Gio went down. I think that would have been Whit.

[moonslav59]

Ahead of Winckowski?

 

I've said it 3 times. I viewed Wink as our third best RP'er on opening day, but he was inCora's long relief role, which I did not equate to the traditional "8th inning guy."

 

We were talking about who our 2nd 8th inning RP'er was or should have been. Yes, I like Wink, but if he's pitching 2 innings, I don't see that as the clear 8th inning guy.

 

My order would have been similar to MVPs, but with Slaten 4 and Campbell 5, behind Wink at 3, but I thought Cora would not have Wink as the 8th inning guy.

[Old Red]

Ahead of Winckowski?

 

Numbering don’t mean a whole hell of a lot. Situations mean more than anything. Typically Martin, and Kenley will pitch the 8-9, but Martin pitched the 7th the other night, because of the situation. Number if you like, but they don’t mean much of anything for the most part. Same with the rotation especially with the Sox.

[moonslav59]

For most of the off-season, the Sox looked like the bullpen would have Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber, Bernardino, and one of Houck or Whitlock. Why would anyone put Campbell third?

 

The trade of Schreiber and the injury to Giolito dug into this depth, and the inexplicable demotion of Bernardino didn't help. But none of this still ever made any of the arm you mentioned as the third best option in the bullpen.

 

And two weeks into the season, both Slaten and Weissert look better, as well...

 

I'm not sure how the debate switched to the start or most of ST'ing. I was looking at opening day.

 

Yes, at the start, we had Gio, Schreiber and many of us had Bernardino higher than Cora's 9th slot on an 8 man pen.

 

I'm fine with Wink 3rd, but if he was in another role, was Campbell really viewed much differently than Slaten, Weissert and Joely? (I'm fine with anyone putting him behind all those 3, but it's not a clear choice.)

 

Many times, pitchers are used in other innings, depending on the situation and who is coming up to bat. Campbell looked pretty good with SEA, last year and had about as many IP as Weissert. Joely had way more IP, but he has largely sucked.

Edited April 12, 2024 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This isn't the best post for it, but...

 

1. The team needs an ACE. Identify the prospects you want to keep and trade the others to get one.

 

2. Trade Yoshida even if you have to eat the contract. Just admit the mistake. Even his upside isn't enough for a fulltime DH.

 

3. Treat Story as if he's the DH/2B/SS. You can no longer plug him in as a starter on your 26 man roster. You need to mentally move on. If he can fill in from time to time in the IF, great. If not, it's easier to replace and injured DH.

 

4. Mayer becomes the Opening Day SS and you need to take whatever lumps come his way. There may be a learning curve, but it is what it is.

 

5. If Grissom doesn't show to be a starter at 2B during 2024, Sox need to actually find someone who can project to go out and field the position 150 times a year (not named Story). Gleyber Torres? Kim? Trade? We know they have a bunch of guys on the farm (Paulino, Meidroth, Sogard, Yorke), but I'm not sure we're comfortable going to them at the moment.

 

6. Determine if Slaten is the 8th inning guy or 9th inning guy and find a complimentary piece to go along with him. Continue to build out the pen.

 

7. Anthony is the Opening Day RF. Rafaela is the Opening Day CF. Duran is the Opening Day LF. That should be the OF for 120+ games year in and year out until someone better comes along.

 

8. Extend Casas only if the deal is reasonable. Don't overextend for a guy that isn't the complete package yet. Not every player is the next Mookie Betts.

 

This list makes too much sense for a perennial last place team. Do we really want to risk rushing these young professional athletes?!? Bring actual good prospects up from the minor leagues to replace actual bad minor leaguers posing as big leaguers?

 

When I was in Baltimore in 2018, I spoke to two sisters -- longtime O's fans -- and they were enthusiastic about the recent promotion of Cedric Mullins (they felt that was the way to grow). Was he ready? In parts of three seasons, Mullins batted .225 with a .632 OPS... then suddenly he turned 26 and was a 30-30 player.

 

The O's lost 115 games in '18, then 108 the next year, and 110 in '21, just three years ago. Fans didn't pack the ballpark, but they went to watch the future and have hope.

 

Would it be any better instead if they just signed a bunch of rehabbing retreads trying to make comebacks in their 30s, and only lost 90 games a year?

[notin]

I've said it 3 times. I viewed Wink as our third best RP'er on opening day, but he was inCora's long relief role, which I did not equate to the traditional "8th inning guy."

 

We were talking about who our 2nd 8th inning RP'er was or should have been. Yes, I like Wink, but if he's pitching 2 innings, I don't see that as the clear 8th inning guy.

 

My order would have been similar to MVPs, but with Slaten 4 and Campbell 5, behind Wink at 3, but I thought Cora would not have Wink as the 8th inning guy.

 

Are we making up bullpen roles? What exactly is a "2nd 8th inning guy"? Martin has largely been the setup guy, coming in for the 8th inning in 4 of his 6 appearances, and in the 7th in the other two (more on these later).

 

In Winckowski's 4 appearances, he has been brought in in the 7th (twice), sixth and 10th innings. I don't see that as a long reliever.

 

But I don't think Cora is managing his relievers by innings as to when to bring them in, despite than many fans seem to like that method. I see strong tendencies to go after matchups instead of innings as for when he brings guys in. For example, the two times Martin came in in the 7th inning, he came in to face the 3-4-5 hitters in the opposing lineup. This is very likely not a coincidence. Cora appears to see the value of using his better arms against the 3-4-5 guys rather than using a lesser releiver agsinst 3-4-5 in the 7th and saving Martin to face 6-7-8 in the 8th. You can only get hitters out when they come up...

Edited April 12, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

This list makes too much sense for a perennial last place team. Do we really want to risk rushing these young professional athletes?!? Bring actual good prospects up from the minor leagues to replace actual bad minor leaguers posing as big leaguers?

 

When I was in Baltimore in 2018, I spoke to two sisters -- longtime O's fans -- and they were enthusiastic about the recent promotion of Cedric Mullins (they felt that was the way to grow). Was he ready? In parts of three seasons, Mullins batted .225 with a .632 OPS... then suddenly he turned 26 and was a 30-30 player.

 

The O's lost 115 games in '18, then 108 the next year, 110 in '21, and 100 just three years ago. Fans didn't pack the ballpark, but they went to watch the future and have hope.

 

Would it be any better instead if they just signed a bunch of rehabbing retreads trying to make comebacks in their 30s, and only lost 90 games a year?

 

Mayer needs to play a while longer. He would be a plus on D, now, IMO.

 

Anthony and Teel might be the types that can jump to the bigs sooner than Mayer.

 

Of course, I'd rather see all 3 than Reyes/Romy, Wong/McGuire and Rafaela/Abreu, but I also want to see them in their prime more years over watching them spend a year or two adjusting on the fly.

[moonslav59]

Are we making up bullpen roles? What exactly is a "2nd 8th inning guy"? Martin has largely been the setup guy, coming in for the 8th inning in 4 of his 6 appearances, and in the 7th in the other two (more on these later).

 

In Winckowski's 4 appearances, he has been brought in in the 7th (twice), sixth and 10th innings. I don't see that as a long reliever.

 

But I don't think Cora is managing his relievers by innings as to when to bring them in, despite than many fans seem to like that method. I see strong tendencies to go after matchups instead of innings as for when he brings guys in. For example, the two times Martin came in in the 7th inning, he came in to face the 3-4-5 hitters in the opposing lineup. This is very likely not a coincidence...

 

I was very clear about how I was numbering our RP'ers. I was counting Wink as the long man and was wondering who our 2nd 8th inning guy was on opening day. I'm not sure what is so hard to understand. Disagree, fine, but I think I was clear. Call them "high leverage," instead of 8th inning guys, if it makes you feel better.

 

BTW, I never even said campbell was or should have been the #3, just that many RP'ers were bunched up, and I saw Wink in another role, according to what I felt Cora was going to do with him.

 

This debate has gone on way too long.

Edited April 12, 2024 by moonslav59

[notin]

Numbering don’t mean a whole hell of a lot. Situations mean more than anything. Typically Martin, and Kenley will pitch the 8-9, but Martin pitched the 7th the other night, because of the situation. Number if you like, but they don’t mean much of anything for the most part. Same with the rotation especially with the Sox.

 

Exactly.

 

"Bullpen role by inning" does not appear to be a thing with Cora, with the exception of the closer. And he is far from alone is his use of the closer that way...

[notin]

I was very clear about how I was numbering our RP'ers. I was counting Wink as the long man and was wondering who our 2nd 8th inning guy was on opening day. I'm not sure what is so hard to understand. Disagree, fine, but I think I was clear.

 

BTW, I never even said campbell was or should have been the #3, just that many RP'ers were bunched up, and I saw Wink in another role, according to what I felt Cora was going to do with him.

 

This debate has gone on way too long.

 

I'm saying there is no such thing as a "2nd 8th inning guy" and barely such thing as a first one. Cora clearly does not manage his bullpen that way. He even moves Martin up an inning to face the middle of the order. And in those cases, the 8th inning hitters are likely the 6-7-8-9 guys. Does any team need a specialist to handle the bottom of the order?

[Elktonnick]

I heard Buck Showalter give a long dissertation on how relievers are burned by repeated warmups. So it is not blatant nonsense and have talked to enough baseball pitching coaches who share that opinion.

I do not know your baseball coaching creds but I trust the Showalters and the coaches both high school and above that I have spoken to over the years more than a Canadian from Nova Scotia. But if you have any advice about curling I am all ears.

[moonslav59]

Pen in high leverage: 2023 (PAs)

124 Wink

93 Martin

92 Jansen

(80 Pivetta/ 73 Crawford, but some as SP'ers)

54 Schreiber

36 Bernardino

25 Bleier

18 Llovera

17 Ort

 

So far in 2024 (no split roles, so far):

20 Martin

18 Jansen

16 Campbell

11 Wink

10 Weissert & Joely

5 Slaten

[Bellhorn04]

I heard Buck Showalter give a long dissertation on how relievers are burned by repeated warmups. So it is not blatant nonsense and have talked to enough baseball pitching coaches who share that opinion.

I do not know your baseball coaching creds but I trust the Showalters and the coaches both high school and above that I have spoken to over the years more than a Canadian from Nova Scotia. But if you have any advice about curling I am all ears.

 

And I trust Cora's acumen over yours, so I guess we're even.

[moonslav59]

I'm saying there is no such thing as a "2nd 8th inning guy" and barely such thing as a first one.

 

Okay. Then look at it like who was #3 and 4 for "high leverage" on opening day?

 

Maybe I should have worded it that way.

Edited April 12, 2024 by moonslav59

[Elktonnick]

Cora destroys bullpens. He doesn't manage them. The lack of stellar infielders is just an excuse the Cora lovers use to cover for his incompetence.

[Bellhorn04]

Cora destroys bullpens. He doesn't manage them. The lack of stellar infielders is just an excuse the Cora lovers use to cover for his incompetence.

 

More well reasoned takes.

[moonslav59]

Can Houck be "the stopper," tonight?

[Old Red]

Okay. Then look at it like who was #3 and 4 for "high leverage" on opening day?

 

Maybe I should have worded it that way.

 

Ask Cora then you won’t have to guess anymore if it’s that important to you. As for myself I could give a RA.🙈🤭

[moonslav59]

More well reasoned takes.

 

Did you forget the green tint?

[Bellhorn04]

Did you forget the green tint?

 

Often not necessary.

[Old Red]

Can Houck be "the stopper," tonight?

 

Can the Red Sox hit Detmers? Can the defense make routine plays?

Edited April 12, 2024 by Old Red

[notin]

Okay. Then look at it like who was #3 and 4 for "high leverage" on opening day?

 

Maybe I should have worded it that way.

 

It still looks like Winckowski. He has yet to come in before the 6th inning. He's not quite doing what Schreiber did, but in two weeks there have not been an overabundance of opportunities.

 

I think in time Slaten might settle into the high leverage role like how it was done with Schreiber...

[mvp 78]

Is there any such thing as a middle reliever any more? With starters usually only going 5, you need to cover the 6th to the 9th with an ever changing cast, so they're all going to get high leverage spots.

 

I mean, that's a good question. To me, you have about 3 late inning guys, a bulk guy and the rest are middle relievers.

[mvp 78]

Looks fair. I'd have probably had Campbell ahead of Weissert and maybe Joely. I liked Slaten more.

 

I certainly view and viewed Wink as better, but I did not see him as a traditional 8th inning guy, after they "stretched him out."

 

I saw that more of the '21 Whitlock late inning guy who pitches multiple innings when needed.

[Elktonnick]

What blatant nonsense.

 

And I trust Cora's acumen over yours, so I guess we're even.

Fair enough. But Cora is the most overrated manager in baseball.

[moonslav59]

It still looks like Winckowski. He has yet to come in before the 6th inning. He's not quite doing what Schreiber did, but in two weeks there have not been an overabundance of opportunities.

 

I think in time Slaten might settle into the high leverage role like how it was done with Schreiber...

 

I agree on Wink. I just thought Cora had changed his role, and so far, he has used Wink less in high leverage than last year, when he led the team in RP'er innings in high leverage situations.

 

My own idea was basically this:

 

Jansen

Martin

Wink

Close to a tie: Slaten, Campbell, Bernardino

Weissert, Joely

Long man: Anderson

 

I thought Cora would start like this:

Jansen

Martin

Close to a tie: Slaten, Campbell, Weissert, Joely

Long men: Wink & Anderson

 

I'm still not sure why this set off a firestorm.

[Maxbialystock]

Cora destroys bullpens. He doesn't manage them. The lack of stellar infielders is just an excuse the Cora lovers use to cover for his incompetence.

 

Interesting. I believe I'm correct in saying that this year's rotation has been unbelievably good--way beyond any rational expectations--and with five starters who started last year for the Sox.

 

So maybe the new pitching coach has had something to do with that. And the same can be said about the bullpen--the pitching coach is in charge of them. He's also right there in the dugout with Cora when decisions are made. He's also with Cora before the game when they map out contingencies--usually, who are they going to use for the last 4 innings.

 

Also, let's not forget that the one thing the Red Sox stink at is developing pitchers of any kind. The miracle of the rotation is both that they have been terrific and that their combined salaries add up to just $14M. I think I'm right that the only one of the five who came up through what is laughingly referred to as the Sox "system" is Bello.

 

We should also note that, out of 13 pitchers on this staff, just one is a lefty--Joely Rodriguez. Lefties reportedly are pretty good against lefty bats, and, given that the entire Sox rotation is made up of righties, you can bet there are plenty of lefty bats in the lineup every single night. But just one freaking lefty pitcher to get them out.

 

This year I'm distraught at all the errors, other misplays, so-so hitting, etc. I think it's unarguable that the focus is not there--like Hamilton not touching the bag last night. Maybe that's on Cora, I don't know.

 

But announcing he is destroying a bullpen after 13 freaking games is just stupid.