A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Old Red]

Yeah. .289 last year. Second best on the team. 3rd best in OPS. Total failure. I wonder what you would say if he were a good ole boy from Alabama.

 

If he was a good ole boy from Alabama, and was an overpriced DH he would get the same treatment. WOW if you’re trying to go somewhere else.

[moonslav59]

MLB's top 18 prospects (updated): only 2 are pitchers.

 

(10 of the next 38 are pitchers.)

[Hugh2]

Outsmarting everyone, just like in the 2020 draft. I'm not saying Nick Yorke is a bad player, but the assumption was he was taken so high because he'd sign for less than projected first-rounders... which, in turn, allowed the Sox to draft -- and sign -- Blaze Jordan. Both guys are doing ok in Double A, so I won't post If-Onlys on current big leaguers taken after Yorke, like Westburg or Evan Carter or a few Cardinals (because they're in last again).

 

But there has to be at least a dozen pitchers taken after Yorke who are already in the majors, and some of them are pretty good. Despite all the draft book instructions, Bloom -- and his front office full of Asst. VPs -- didn't pick the best player available, but instead opted for two for the price of maybe one surer thing...

 

... but why draft pitchers, when we can just trade Yorke or Jordan for one. Someday.

 

That same draft strategy game you Roman Anthony two years later, so it's really hard to hate on it overall.

[Hugh2]

Seeing what the Breslow empire has done with pitching within the Sox Organization really made me wonder today what they could have done with a healthy Giolito.

 

Who would have thought a few months ago we’d be happy with the pitching and looking for the offense to get going.

[moonslav59]

That same draft strategy game you Roman Anthony two years later, so it's really hard to hate on it overall.

 

Copy cat.

[moonslav59]

Here is an amazing stat:

 

Team ERA- (Look at the difference between 1st and 2nd)

67 BOS

80 LAD

81 NYY, PHI

84 KCR

85 ATL

 

Our SP'ers have a 59 ERA- (PHI second at 66, KCR 3rd at 78.)

 

 

Some more bunched numbers

FIP-

81 PHI

84 WSH

87 BOS

92 CLE, DET, MIN

93 SEA, BAL

94 KCR

 

WHIP

1.07 SEA

1.10 LAD

1.11 BOS, BAL

1.15 DET

1.16 PHI

[jad]

Analytics geeks should enjoy this, even though no RS players get mentioned. Not sure what it says, other than good hitters are better than bad ones but who knows why.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40120458/mlb-statcast-bat-tracking-data-giancarlo-stanton-luis-arraez

[Duran Is The Man]

Yeah. .289 last year. Second best on the team. 3rd best in OPS. Total failure. I wonder what you would say if he were a good ole boy from Alabama.

 

i'd say for $18 million, he f***ing sucks and wish he'd never been signed. just like Noshida.

[jad]

i'd say for $18 million, he f***ing sucks and wish he'd never been signed. just like Noshida.

 

Fair enough. You're not pissed at Yoshida's performance, right? You're p.o.d at the money he's being paid.

[Randy Red Sox]

MLB's top 18 prospects (updated): only 2 are pitchers.

 

(10 of the next 38 are pitchers.)

 

the list i see today has 4 pitchers ranked in the top 12 where the Sox pick. #11 and 12 are both pitchers. There is a 5th pitcher who is listed as a 1B/P. the mock draft i saw has the Sox picking--what else-a shortstop

Edited May 14, 2024 by Randy Red Sox

[Randy Red Sox]

That same draft strategy game you Roman Anthony two years later, so it's really hard to hate on it overall.

 

Yorke AND jordan in the same trade won't get you a decent P. Maybe a reliever.

[Nick]

Yeah. .289 last year. Second best on the team. 3rd best in OPS. Total failure. I wonder what you would say if he were a good ole boy from Alabama.

My comment was in jest. Just relax...

And I am Japanese.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yorke AND jordan in the same trade won't get you a decent P. Maybe a reliever.

 

That's the whole point about drafting "best" players to trade for pitchers later. The Pirates aren't going to trade Jared Jones, the Dodgers aren't going to trade Bobby Miller, and the Giants aren't going to trade Kyle Harrison for Yorke and Jordan. All three of those MLB starting pitchers were draft picks after Yorke in 2020.

 

It's even doubtful any of those clubs would swap those arms for Mikey Romero and Roman Anthony right now. The latter is a good prospect, but at this point that's all he is, while Romero so far isn't even Jeter Downs. Meanwhile, there were almost two dozen pitchers chosen between Romero and Anthony in the 2022 draft.

 

Starting pitching is just too valuable, especially with mound injury rates increasing by the day. There is an assumption that stockpiling toolsy athletic draft picks is a smart strategy for dealing for pitching later. But how often do clubs ever really give up promising young pitchers?

[jad]

My comment was in jest. Just relax...

And I am Japanese.

 

My bad, didn't read it correctly (I was in LA during the 'Ohtani is clearly guilty and should be banned forever' hysteria, and no longer trust what any sports fan says about Japanese players.) Sorry. Again, my bad.

[moonslav59]

Yorke AND jordan in the same trade won't get you a decent P. Maybe a reliever.

 

What would Romero & Anthony get us?

 

Sometimes, drafts don't work out as planned. We seem to focus on those drafts, a lot.

[Bellhorn04]

My bad, didn't read it correctly (I was in LA during the 'Ohtani is clearly guilty and should be banned forever' hysteria, and no longer trust what any sports fan says about Japanese players.) Sorry. Again, my bad.

 

What struck me a little last year was that Yoshida was actually being criticized much LESS than JD Martinez was in his final year with the Sox, even though he wasn't really doing better and was being paid about the same. I think a lot of that had to do with people being tired of JD - Yoshida at least was a new face...

[Randy Red Sox]

That's the whole point about drafting "best" players to trade for pitchers later. The Pirates aren't going to trade Jared Jones, the Dodgers aren't going to trade Bobby Miller, and the Giants aren't going to trade Kyle Harrison for Yorke and Jordan. All three of those MLB starting pitchers were draft picks after Yorke in 2020.

 

It's even doubtful any of those clubs would swap those arms for Mikey Romero and Roman Anthony right now. The latter is a good prospect, but at this point that's all he is, while Romero so far isn't even Jeter Downs. Meanwhile, there were almost two dozen pitchers chosen between Romero and Anthony in the 2022 draft.

 

Starting pitching is just too valuable, especially with mound injury rates increasing by the day. There is an assumption that stockpiling toolsy athletic draft picks is a smart strategy for dealing for pitching later. But how often do clubs ever really give up promising young pitchers?

 

that is what i have been saying for years now

[Bellhorn04]

That's the whole point about drafting "best" players to trade for pitchers later. The Pirates aren't going to trade Jared Jones, the Dodgers aren't going to trade Bobby Miller, and the Giants aren't going to trade Kyle Harrison for Yorke and Jordan. All three of those MLB starting pitchers were draft picks after Yorke in 2020.

 

It's even doubtful any of those clubs would swap those arms for Mikey Romero and Roman Anthony right now. The latter is a good prospect, but at this point that's all he is, while Romero so far isn't even Jeter Downs. Meanwhile, there were almost two dozen pitchers chosen between Romero and Anthony in the 2022 draft.

 

Starting pitching is just too valuable, especially with mound injury rates increasing by the day. There is an assumption that stockpiling toolsy athletic draft picks is a smart strategy for dealing for pitching later. But how often do clubs ever really give up promising young pitchers?

 

Have to give Breslow credit for snagging a couple of promising ones in Fitts and Sandlin without giving up much.

[mvp 78]

Have to give Breslow credit for snagging a couple of promising ones in Fitts and Sandlin without giving up much.

 

@RotoClegg

David Sandlin was scratched before tonight’s start with some forearm tightness in warmups.

[Bellhorn04]

@RotoClegg

David Sandlin was scratched before tonight’s start with some forearm tightness in warmups.

 

Damn, I obliviously jinxed him.

[moonslav59]

Have to give Breslow credit for snagging a couple of promising ones in Fitts and Sandlin without giving up much.

 

Indeed. Maybe Olivarez, Benitez or Judice will surprise.

 

Also, major leaguers in Slaten, Weissert and maybe Campbell.

[Bellhorn04]

Indeed. Maybe Olivarez, Benitez or Judice will surprise.

 

Also, major leaguers in Slaten, Weissert and maybe Campbell.

 

Not to mention the Amazing Criswell.

 

Craig is doing so well with the pitching that he'll soon be able to turn his attention to the offense.

[jad]

What struck me a little last year was that Yoshida was actually being criticized much LESS than JD Martinez was in his final year with the Sox, even though he wasn't really doing better and was being paid about the same. I think a lot of that had to do with people being tired of JD - Yoshida at least was a new face...

 

Good point. And you're right: I've never understood the vilification of players who are not great, but very good and who perform EXACTLY as they could be expected to perform. JD was certainly one of those. Two others that come to mind are Adrian Gonzalez who was very consistent and hit pretty much as he hit throughout his career, and J.D. Drew (not as good as Gonzalez, but hit just as he had elsewhere). There was nothing particularly unlikable about any of these guys (although they were pretty low-key, as I recall, and not rah-rah self-proclaimed tough guys, like, say, Yucker). (I would be inclined to put Hanley II in the same category, who at that point in his career pretty much gave what could have been expected.).

[moonslav59]

Not to mention the Amazing Criswell.

 

Craig is doing so well with the pitching that he'll soon be able to turn his attention to the offense.

 

Right. How could I forget him?!?

 

Also, Chase Anderson has been pretty good, before and after that one bad game:

 

2.77 ERA, 3.14 FIP and .516 OPS Against in the 6 games before April 25th's game.

 

0.00 ERA, 2.89 FIP and .297 OPS Against in the 3 games after April 25th.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Have to give Breslow credit for snagging a couple of promising ones in Fitts and Sandlin without giving up much.

 

Totally on board with getting those two for a guy who had worn out his welcome and a veteran bullpen piece. I'm just blabbing about stockpiling all the "best" players drafted who "can be flipped for pitching" -- when they never are.

 

And it rarely seems like it goes the other way -- Seattle wouldn't even budge on its #5 starter this winter... unless you're the Rays, and can afford to trade Joe Ryan for a 40-year old DH, or a first-rounder like Liberatore for a Cuban signee like Arozarena, targeted as an instant star (but knowing Tampa, will probably soon be dealt for another arm that throws 100 mph with a sweeping dirtball change-up that comes from the side and no batter can see).

[moonslav59]

Totally on board with getting those two for a guy who had worn out his welcome and a veteran bullpen piece. I'm just blabbing about stockpiling all the "best" players drafted who "can be flipped for pitching" -- when they never are.

 

Not many, but some...

 

Iggy for Peavy

Moncada + others for Sale

Margot, Asuaje + 2 pitching prospects for Kimbrel

Beni for Wink & Gambrell

 

also...

Dugo (not drafted) for Fitts, Weissert & Judice

[notin]

That's the whole point about drafting "best" players to trade for pitchers later. The Pirates aren't going to trade Jared Jones, the Dodgers aren't going to trade Bobby Miller, and the Giants aren't going to trade Kyle Harrison for Yorke and Jordan. All three of those MLB starting pitchers were draft picks after Yorke in 2020.

 

It's even doubtful any of those clubs would swap those arms for Mikey Romero and Roman Anthony right now. The latter is a good prospect, but at this point that's all he is, while Romero so far isn't even Jeter Downs. Meanwhile, there were almost two dozen pitchers chosen between Romero and Anthony in the 2022 draft.

 

Starting pitching is just too valuable, especially with mound injury rates increasing by the day. There is an assumption that stockpiling toolsy athletic draft picks is a smart strategy for dealing for pitching later. But how often do clubs ever really give up promising young pitchers?

 

Have you seen a list of pitchers the Sox have taken in the first round? From 2010-2020, they to0ok the following pitchers in the first and sandwich rounds:

 

Anthony Ranaudo

Matt Barnes

Henry Owens

Pat Light

Brian Johnson

Trey Ball

Michael Kopech

Jay Groome

Tanner Houck

 

Should we try to get more Trey Ball/Jay Groome types?

 

Barnes, Houck and Kopech were clear hits. The rest did nothing for the Sox, and were not even dealt for anything that helped the Sox significantly (with the jury still out on Corey Rosier). And people can blame scouting or development or whatever, but this spans 10 years. In this stretch, the Sox had 4 different GM/CBOs, and who knows how many scouts and development people and minor league coaches. They probably had a dozen different philosophies and tactics and strategies. It's not as simple as just drafting more pitchers early.

 

Heck they Sox even took multiple pitchers in the first round a couple times, notably in 2011 when they took Barnes and Owens. Fun fact - after taking Owens in the first round, the Sox second and third round picks that year were an outfielder (Williams Jerez) and a catcher (Jordan Weems) who both converted to pitching and then each appeared in more MLB games as a pitcher than Henry Owens did.

 

It's not so simple as "just draft more pitchers." you do have to draft them. But drafting pitchers for the sake of drafting pitchers is more likely to lead to bad drafts. And recapping past drafts to notice missed picks proves nothing. Yes, the Sox passed on Bobby Miller to take Nick Yorke. But they also took Trey Ball instead of Aaron Judge. And they passed on Dodger catcher Will Smith to take Jay Groome. Does anyone look at those drafts and conclude maybe we should never draft pitching? After all, you can review most drafts and find better players selected later for almost anyone.

 

 

And it is probably true the Pirates won't be trading Jared Jones any time soon, although interestingly you did choose the organization that traded away Tyler Glasnow when he was a young pitcher...

[notin]

Outsmarting everyone, just like in the 2020 draft. I'm not saying Nick Yorke is a bad player, but the assumption was he was taken so high because he'd sign for less than projected first-rounders... which, in turn, allowed the Sox to draft -- and sign -- Blaze Jordan. Both guys are doing ok in Double A, so I won't post If-Onlys on current big leaguers taken after Yorke, like Westburg or Evan Carter or a few Cardinals (because they're in last again).

 

But there has to be at least a dozen pitchers taken after Yorke who are already in the majors, and some of them are pretty good. Despite all the draft book instructions, Bloom -- and his front office full of Asst. VPs -- didn't pick the best player available, but instead opted for two for the price of maybe one surer thing...

 

... but why draft pitchers, when we can just trade Yorke or Jordan for one. Someday.

 

I also wonder if part of the reason the Sox took Yorke when they did was because they thought it was their last chance to grab him, since they had no second round pick that year and did not think he would last until #89.

 

If money was a factor, the pitchers who signed for less than Yorke that round does include Miller, but also Bryce Jarvis, Jared Shuster, Carmen Mlodzinski, Slade Cecconi, Justin Lange and Tanner Burns. The first 4 have all made their MLB debut, but only Miller has made any impact so far. Of course, all except Lange were taken out of college and were much older than Yorke. Jarvis and Shuster were also taken ahead of Miller, which means at least 2 teams had them ranked higher...

Edited May 14, 2024 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Glasnow was at least drafted by Pittsburgh -- but let's not get all Andrew Miller about trading him away. Last year was the first that Glasnow ever made 20 starts, and this season it looks like he's finally a star... at age 30.

 

The Red Sox may have had bad luck and bad skill drafting pitchers the past decade or so -- but that doesn't mean they should just take six more high school shortstops over six D1 college starters, either. Not that they would ever trade one of the pitchers, even if they all made the majors... unless a guy is about to go free agent, and has become too expensive for John Fenway.

[notin]

That's the whole point about drafting "best" players to trade for pitchers later. The Pirates aren't going to trade Jared Jones, the Dodgers aren't going to trade Bobby Miller, and the Giants aren't going to trade Kyle Harrison for Yorke and Jordan. All three of those MLB starting pitchers were draft picks after Yorke in 2020.

 

It's even doubtful any of those clubs would swap those arms for Mikey Romero and Roman Anthony right now. The latter is a good prospect, but at this point that's all he is, while Romero so far isn't even Jeter Downs. Meanwhile, there were almost two dozen pitchers chosen between Romero and Anthony in the 2022 draft.

 

Starting pitching is just too valuable, especially with mound injury rates increasing by the day. There is an assumption that stockpiling toolsy athletic draft picks is a smart strategy for dealing for pitching later. But how often do clubs ever really give up promising young pitchers?

 

 

How often do you see any first year players or prospects traded for other first year players or prospects, pitchers or not?

 

Did the Sox manage to trade a couple young players like Moncada and Kopech and others for a pitcher?

 

Not like the Yankees offered us Aaron Judge for Trey Ball, either...

Edited May 14, 2024 by notin