A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

Think about this bizarre little fact.

 

Ceddane Rafaela, the team’s number 9 hitter, is second on the Red Sox in plate appearances…

 

the next guy is 18 behind and was on the IL! (O'Neill)

 

OPS+ numbers in order of most PAs:

 

107 Duran (needs some more timely hits)

69 Rafaela (seems to be improving on O)

170 O'Neill (can't buy an rbi other than by homers)

143 Devers (had a slow start)

133 Abreu (impressive start)

25 Valdez (this really hurt: in AAA now)

167 Wong (beats out Abreu as the most surprisingly good start)

137 Casas (sorely missed) IL

107 Yoshida (I'm surprised he is over 100) IL

109 McGuire (the unsung surprise)

28 Reyes (horrible) AAA

8 Dalbec (about as low as possible) AAA

189 Refsnyder (once again, killing lefties)

71 DHam

 

Under 35 PAs

73 Story IL

16 Cooper (actually better than Dalbec!)

31 Smith (Is this the best we can do at 1B?)

-7 Grissom (Yes, you can do worse than Dalbec) 21 PAs

89 Romy IL

-100 Short (Oh for 7)

57 Heineman (Hardly knew yah)

[moonslav59]

OPS Last 14 days:

1.571 Yoshida (7 PAs and on IL)

.957 Rafaela

.948 Duran

.899 Devers

.895 Wong

.817 Dalbec (13 PAs and in AAA now as Cooper/Smith flounder)

 

.762 DHam

.754 O'Neill

.729 Ref

.715 Abreu

.688 McGuire

 

.465 Smith

.405 Cooper

.333 Grissom

[moonslav59]

OPS AGainst Last 14 Days:

.267 Weissert (Verdu-who?)

.350 Bernardino (scrap heap gem)

.382 Anderson (just 11 PAS against in last 2 weeks)

.464 Uwasawa (really?)

.466 Booser (What a story)

 

These top 5 are shockingly ranked, but only have faced 86 batters over the last 2 weeks. That is barely more than Houk's 79.

 

.517 Jansen (turning it around)

.523 Houck (still doing very well as we near the quarter mile stretch)

.609 Criswell (still surprising us)

.622 Crawford (has slipped a bit, but still doing well)

.624 Slaten (had a bad game, finally)

 

.679 Wink (hoping he can regain the '23 groove)

.692 Martin (improving)

.701 Kelly

 

1.366 Pivetta (one start since rehab)

 

Best K:BB rates

7:0 Weissert (in 15 PAs)

4:0 Martin

5:1 Slaten

9:2 Criswell

4:1 Jansen

18:3 Houck

12:4 Crawford

 

[Randy Red Sox]

As for Breslow and the 2024 Sox, my impression is simply that most of the problems were/are too deep and ingrained to fix in one offseason. Among those problems, and here I'm just guessing, are--

 

1. Lack of intelligent coaching and assessment in the Sox minor leagues.

2. An owner who has backed off of paying top dollar for talent, probably as a result of the 2019 season, after which he plowed megabucks into paying Price and Sale even though Price pitched for the Dodgers, and Sale simply stayed on the IL.

3. The MLBPA, which, along with players' agents, has brilliantly ensured that almost all contracts are guaranteed, which means that owners and CBO's are almost always gambling on the continued health of their most expensive acquisitions. I hasten to add that sports commentators of all ilk seem to share the notion that the owners are all billionaires and should share that wealth with the players, regardless of the risks.

4. The ongoing dynamics of MLB rule changes, which are invariably intended to allow for more scoring, but nevertheless seem unable to combat the ongoing refinement of pitching techniques/effectiveness.

5. He replaced Chaim Bloom, who proved to be the wrong guy to execute whatever John Henry and his brain trust intended as a sea change for the Sox. Bloom came from the very good Rays system for identifying and developing MLB-level talent, but could not bring that system with him.

 

Friedman was the real brains for the Rays. Bloom simply brought him his coffee on a daily basis.

[Randy Red Sox]

Sox are right at .500 now--pretty much exactly where most of us felt they would be.

[Maxbialystock]

It's only May 11th. It hasn't even gotten warm yet. And there have been a dozen mood swings so far. Today, it's gloom and doom. But if they win today, it will be seashells and balloons, scoreboard watching and updated, color-coded wild card standings. Folks, you have to let things play out a little. You can't live and die with every game. It's baseball.

 

I disagree. I think it's natural for real fans--fanatics--to react to every game and even to over-react.

 

Yes, of course there is the long view which can be measured in decades or months or however one chooses to see the Sox.

 

162 games are divisible by 9, which means there are 18 games in each "inning" of a 9 inning season. At 38 games, the Sox have just started the 3d inning of this season. And just like any 9 inning game, we've already seen a lot of interesting things--

 

--Injuries galore, but especially to Story and Casas and 3 of the original (and magical) rotation of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck;

 

--Worst defense in MLB;

 

--Best pitching, defined as the team ERA, in MLB. This is in fact unprecedented and seems likely to end this month;

 

--Historically bad hitting, especially with runners in scoring position;

 

--Nevertheless, a 19-19 record thanks to the rotation (and sometimes to the bullpen);

 

--Also nevertheless, Sox attendance @ 31,229, the lowest in at least 25 years.

[notin]

Sox are right at .500 now--pretty much exactly where most of us felt they would be.

 

Most felt the Sox would be in last place, a position rarely held by .500 teams. (Twice in MLB history.)

 

If the Sox do lose today, they will be under .500 for the first time since they were 1-2. That’s actually still surprising…

[notin]

I disagree. I think it's natural for real fans--fanatics--to react to every game and even to over-react.

 

Yes, of course there is the long view which can be measured in decades or months or however one chooses to see the Sox.

 

162 games are divisible by 9, which means there are 18 games in each "inning" of a 9 inning season. At 38 games, the Sox have just started the 3d inning of this season. And just like any 9 inning game, we've already seen a lot of interesting things--

 

--Injuries galore, but especially to Story and Casas and 3 of the original (and magical) rotation of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck;

 

--Worst defense in MLB;

 

--Best pitching, defined as the team ERA, in MLB. This is in fact unprecedented and seems likely to end this month;

 

--Historically bad hitting, especially with runners in scoring position;

 

--Nevertheless, a 19-19 record thanks to the rotation (and sometimes to the bullpen);

 

--Also nevertheless, Sox attendance @ 31,229, the lowest in at least 25 years.

 

 

The metrics do not agree.

 

The Sox outfield is actually one of the better ones, top 8 in DRS, OAA and UZR. And actually #1 by a lot in DRS.

 

1B is also in the upper third on all 3 somehow.

 

2B is middle third on all three. I found this surprising.

 

SS and 3B are near the bottom. Especially 3B. I'm guessing Rafaela has added some stability to SS...

[moonslav59]

Friedman was the real brains for the Rays. Bloom simply brought him his coffee on a daily basis.

 

It looks that way, but their ML talent scouts did wonders with reclamation projects, and they had a unique ability to know just when some of their own players were right at the cusp of decline. Yes, some of that was attributed to dumping stars right before they were about to make more money, but they went beyond that.

 

I think it was a group effort, but yes, Friedman was the man at the top who oversaw their success at winning the most games at the lowest cost possible.

[moonslav59]

I disagree. I think it's natural for real fans--fanatics--to react to every game and even to over-react.

 

Yes, of course there is the long view which can be measured in decades or months or however one chooses to see the Sox.

 

162 games are divisible by 9, which means there are 18 games in each "inning" of a 9 inning season. At 38 games, the Sox have just started the 3d inning of this season. And just like any 9 inning game, we've already seen a lot of interesting things--

 

--Injuries galore, but especially to Story and Casas and 3 of the original (and magical) rotation of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck;

 

--Worst defense in MLB;

 

--Best pitching, defined as the team ERA, in MLB. This is in fact unprecedented and seems likely to end this month;

 

--Historically bad hitting, especially with runners in scoring position;

 

--Nevertheless, a 19-19 record thanks to the rotation (and sometimes to the bullpen);

 

--Also nevertheless, Sox attendance @ 31,229, the lowest in at least 25 years.

 

Maybe al most "historically bad hitting" in the context of the Red Sox past 5 decade history, but not in terms of MLB, as a whole.

 

Point well-taken, though, especially on the lack of timely hitting.

 

That also seemed to be a curse on many of the good hitting teams pre-Henry, and some under JH, too.

[notin]

Maybe al most "historically bad hitting" in the context of the Red Sox past 5 decade history, but not in terms of MLB, as a whole.

 

Point well-taken, though, especially on the lack of timely hitting.

 

That also seemed to be a curse on many of the good hitting teams pre-Henry, and some under JH, too.

 

The Sox are actually 20-23 in MLB with RISP using most metrics.

 

Batting Average - .238 (20th)

wOBA - .299 (20th)

wRC+ - 86 (23rd)

 

They're bad, and not where we are used to seeing Red Sox teams. (Even the 2023 Red Sox were ranked 10th-13th in these same categories.) But they are somehow just 14% below league average.

 

The one thing they are not is unlucky, with a .311 BABIP (13th)...

[dgalehouse]

Friedman was the real brains for the Rays. Bloom simply brought him his coffee on a daily basis.

 

I would give much of the credit for the Ray's success to the manager, Kevin Cash. He gets the best out of whatever he has to work with.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are actually 20-23 in MLB with RISP using most metrics.

 

Batting Average - .238 (20th)

wOBA - .299 (20th)

wRC+ - 86 (23rd)

 

They're bad, and not where we are used to seeing Red Sox teams. (Even the 2023 Red Sox were ranked 10th-13th in these same categories.) But they are somehow just 14% below league average.

 

The one thing they are not is unlucky, with a .311 BABIP (13th)...

 

I agree with the "historically bad" with RISP, or close to it, in terms of the last 50 years of Red Sox history, but not on overall hitting.

 

We are not doing well, but it's not "historically" low, even if just using the last 50 years.

[notin]

I agree with the "historically bad" with RISP, or close to it, in terms of the last 50 years of Red Sox history, but not on overall hitting.

 

We are not doing well, but it's not "historically" low, even if just using the last 50 years.

 

 

The Sox are in a bad stretch. They’ve scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. But they only scored two or fewer runs nine times in the entire 31 game season before this stretch…

[notin]

The Pirates DFAd RHP Roansy Contreras.

 

This is a guy you make a move on. Concensus top 100 prospect 2 years ago. No major health concerns. Still throwing 94.7mph.

 

Bres, offer up a non-40 man player (Lugo?), start negotiating, DFA Dalbec, and get this guy in front of Bailey…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I would give much of the credit for the Ray's success to the manager, Kevin Cash. He gets the best out of whatever he has to work with.

 

Soon, some other team's front office will say the same thing about Cora and Boston, and make him an offer he can't refuse.

[moonslav59]

The Pirates DFAd RHP Roansy Contreras.

 

This is a guy you make a move on. Concensus top 100 prospect 2 years ago. No major health concerns. Still throwing 94.7mph.

 

Bres, offer up a non-40 man player (Lugo?), start negotiating, DFA Dalbec, and get this guy in front of Bailey…

 

e have 2 slots open on the 40.

 

Offer cash. If they say no, offer some cash and some soon-to-be Rule 5 guys we likely won't protect.

 

Binelas

Max Ferguson

McDonough

 

Maybe Lugo or Hickey.

[notin]

e have 2 slots open on the 40.

 

Offer cash. If they say no, offer some cash and some soon-to-be Rule 5 guys we likely won't protect.

 

Binelas

Max Ferguson

McDonough

 

Maybe Lugo or Hickey.

 

I think they will get multiple offers for Contreras, who’s only 24 and makes no money. Gotta make the best offer. With BTV on as a pay site now, not sure what’s considered equal value. Lugo is good, but might not be enough. No idea what positions they’d want or how close to MLB.

 

Soxprospects does list one spot open, so no DFA required.

 

But I hope Breslow goes for him…

[moonslav59]

I think they will get multiple offers for Contreras, who’s only 24 and makes no money. Gotta make the best offer. With BTV on as a pay site now, not sure what’s considered equal value. Lugo is good, but might not be enough. No idea what positions they’d want or how close to MLB.

 

Soxprospects does list one spot open, so no DFA required.

 

But I hope Breslow goes for him…

 

PIT might like cash and a prospect.

 

Would you give Lugo & Hickey?

[moonslav59]

After WSH, our schedule is....

 

TBR 4

@STL 2

@TBR 3

Day Off

3 MIL

3 @ BAL

3 DET (brings us into June) and the 40% mark of the season

 

[dgalehouse]

After WSH, our schedule is....

 

TBR 4

@STL 2

@TBR 3

Day Off

3 MIL

3 @ BAL

3 DET (brings us into June) and the 40% mark of the season

 

 

40% into the season and still haven't played the arch rival Yankees. What idiot makes up these schedules ?

[moonslav59]

40% into the season and still haven't played the arch rival Yankees. What idiot makes up these schedules ?

 

Agreed. The series should be spread out vs all teams, if possible.

[notin]

40% into the season and still haven't played the arch rival Yankees. What idiot makes up these schedules ?

 

We’re not anywhere near 40% of the way into the season. Typo?

[moonslav59]

We’re not anywhere near 40% of the way into the season. Typo?

 

Look at the post he was responding to.

[notin]

Look at the post he was responding to.

 

My bad. At least I don’t accuse him of bad math.

 

At that point we’d be 35% of the way into the season. So I’d let a 40% comment go…

[Nick]

When was the last time we had this many young starting position players?

 

Rookies

Abreu, Rafaela, Grissom

1 year

Wong, Duran, Casas

 

Ever?

[moonslav59]

When was the last time we had this many young starting position players?

 

Rookies

Abreu, Rafaela, Grissom

1 year

Wong, Duran, Casas

 

Using soxprospects.com, method for determining who is a rookie, Crawford, Bello and Wink "graduated" after Duran.

 

Houck and Whitlock in '21

[moonslav59]

My bad. At least I don’t accuse him of bad math.

 

At that point we’d be 35% of the way into the season. So I’d let a 40% comment go…

 

At the end of the time frame in my previous post, we'd be at game 60. (60/162=37%)

 

The game before the first NYY game is game 69. (69/162= just under 43%)

[moonslav59]

Back up over .500, with TBR and TOR breathing down our necks.

 

26-12 BAL

26-15 NYY -1.5

20-19 BOS -6.5 (-3.0 from WC with 2 teams between)

20-20 TBR -7.0

18-21 TOR -8.5

 

[Nick]

Wink sent down to AAA.

 

In a way I like this move. Brez doing what's best for the team or what he thinks is the best. No one is safe.

 

Definitely not Cora's decision. Which maybe a good thing.