A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Nick]

Criswell with another decent outing. 9K and only 2 walks in 5 innings.

 

He's a keeper.

[moonslav59]

Wink sent down to AAA.

 

In a way I like this move. Brez doing what's best for the team or what he thinks is the best. No one is safe.

 

Definitely not Cora's decision. Which maybe a good thing.

 

2.13 ERA in last 4 games (12.2 IP)

 

True, his FIP was 4.81 in those 1.2 IP, but he wasn't our worst picther.

 

.664 OPSA over that time.

[Larry Cook]

Wink sent down to AAA.

 

In a way I like this move. Brez doing what's best for the team or what he thinks is the best. No one is safe.

 

Definitely not Cora's decision. Which maybe a good thing.

 

Wincowski pitching with tendon damage in his ankle. That is not good.

[Old Red]

Criswell with another decent outing. 9K and only 2 walks in 5 innings.

 

He's a keeper.

 

I thought the WELL Man should have made the rotation out of ST, and Whitt would have started in the pen.

[moonslav59]

League OPS

.728 in '21

.734 in '22

.706 in '23

.698 in '24

 

The league OPS has only been lower than .698 4 times since 1975 and zero times since 1989 (23 seasons.)

 

The 2024 Sox don't have a single batter with 35+ PAs and an OPS between .601 and .735. It's sort of like feast or famine.

 

Those above the league .698 mark (100+ PAs, unless noted):

1.056 Ref (52 PAs)

.966 Wong (91, needs to C or DH- maybe 1B everyday)

.960 O'Neill

.884 Devers

.859 Abreu

.857 Casas (90 and on IL)

.739 McGuire (76)

.736 Yoshida (89 and on IL)

 

.617 Story (34 out for the year)

.606 Romy (12)

.600 Rafaela (leads the team in PAs)

 

.569 DHam (50)

.452 Valdez (98 in AAA)

.408 Smith (25)

.405 Cooper (26)

.280 Grissom (25)

 

You figure Grissom and Rafaela will be FT'ers, going forward, and hopefully they bring their OPS up.

 

The other 7-8 seem to be doing okay, if they are not on the IL, but one of the 7-8 is Yoshida, and none of the 7 play 1B, except maybe Ref or Wong. (Just don't say Devers.)

Edited May 12, 2024 by moonslav59

[Randy Red Sox]

I would give much of the credit for the Ray's success to the manager, Kevin Cash. He gets the best out of whatever he has to work with.

 

that is very true as well

[moonslav59]

that is very true as well

 

Just don't say Madden.

[moonslav59]

We have to find ways to keep Wong's bat in the line-up nearly everyday. He can't catch 155 games, and McGuire is one of our top 7 batters, so Wong needs to DH or maybe play 1B, if possible. We should also think about playing Refsnyder at 1B, since the Cooper/Smith idea seems to be nearly as bad as Dalbec. (So much for trades in May being the right solution.)

 

Could we try this?

 

C: McGuire as much as possible with Wong as little as possible, so he can "rest" at DH and 1B:

1B: Ref vs LHPs and Wong vs some RHPs. (Cooper or Smith, when not one of these two)

2B: Grissom (maybe Wong on his "rest days."

SS: Rafaela FT

3B: Devers FT

LF: O'Neill FT

CF: Duran FT

RF: Abreu FT

DH: Wong & Ref and others for their days off (Devers, Duran, O'Neill, Abreu)

 

This doesn't really hurt the D that we have right now, except maybe a little at 1B.

 

We need to play our better bats and sit our worst bats. Although Rafaela and Grissom have not done well on O, out of the gate, both need to play FT due to our needs at SS and 2B. I'm hopeful both will improve.

 

Wong needs to be in the line-up, everyday (or something like 14 out of 15 games)

Ref needs to start vs every LHP (DH, 1B or LF)

FT'ers are Devers, O'Neill, Abreu, Duran, Rafaela and Grissom.

McGuire should catch as much as he can without burning his legs out.

 

1B and DH are the catch-all positions, where we need to maximize our best bats usage.

 

[Nick]

“The message is go down there and work,” Cora said. “That’s the bottomline. Like I said, we’re much (more) talented than last year. And there’s going to be tough decisions. And there’s more tough decisions coming up. Over the five years (as manager), the message is a lot easier now. Kind of like, for us to be good, we have to be better in certain aspects. I know the numbers are the numbers from last year. But there’s a few things this year that he’s been off. He knows it. Obviously disappointed that he’s going to the minors but we’ve all been through that. So just go down there and work. If he wants to come back here, then do the things that you have to do and the things you can control and he’ll be back.” Cora talking about Winckowski.

 

Not being flippant but Moon, Cora doesn't give damn about the stats you provided. I like his bluntness......And I agree with his assessment. We're easily swayed to think he's one of our better pitchers but he's been getting a pass this year. He's been hit hard and his control is not always there. That is my eye test and I have nothing to back it up.

 

No matter what any of us think, the management thinks we're a better team. Damn the wins and losses....

 

To me the management is going in the way of more analytics to determine who plays, where and when.

Edited May 12, 2024 by Nick

[moonslav59]

“The message is go down there and work,” Cora said. “That’s the bottomline. Like I said, we’re much (more) talented than last year. And there’s going to be tough decisions. And there’s more tough decisions coming up. Over the five years (as manager), the message is a lot easier now. Kind of like, for us to be good, we have to be better in certain aspects. I know the numbers are the numbers from last year. But there’s a few things this year that he’s been off. He knows it. Obviously disappointed that he’s going to the minors but we’ve all been through that. So just go down there and work. If he wants to come back here, then do the things that you have to do and the things you can control and he’ll be back.” Cora talking about Winckowski.

 

Not being flippant but Moon, Cora doesn't give damn about the stats you provided. I like his bluntness......And I agree with his assessment. We're easily swayed to think he's one of our better pitchers but he's been getting a pass this year. He's been hit hard and his control is not always there. That is my eye test and I have nothing to back it up.

 

No matter what any of us think, the management thinks we're a better team. Damn the wins and losses....

 

To me the management is going in the way of more analytics to determine who plays, where and when.

 

I'm not against the choice to demote Wink. Cora and Brez had good reasons.

 

I just provided numbers that showed he was improving over a pretty bad start to 2024.

 

I'm near certain we will see him back up, this year.

 

I do think Campbell deserves another look.

 

I happy to think that despite Giolito, Whitlock and out of options Mata still being on the IL, we are choosing to demote a guy like Wink, instead of trying to decide who to DFA between guys like Brasier, Bleier, Llover or Jacques.

 

Good job, Brez!

[moonslav59]

Here are the overall ERAs of pitchers who are starters on the Sox (some may have a few IP as a RP.)

 

1.75 Crawford (8GS)

1.96 Whitlock (4)

2.10 Criswell (5 w 1 as RP)

2.24 Houck (8)

3.23 Bello (7, was at 2.70 before HR, today.)

3.60 Pivetta (3)

 

[moonslav59]

Who would have thought our RBI leaders at the quarter mile marker would be...

 

22 Rafela

16 Duran

14 Abreu (Tied with Wong & Devers)

 

Our OF is also second best in MLB defense.

[Nick]

Who would have thought our RBI leaders at the quarter mile marker would be...

 

22 Rafela

16 Duran

14 Abreu (Tied with Wong & Devers)

 

Our OF is also second best in MLB defense.

 

That's five players with at least 5 years of team control. Nice

[moonslav59]

Team ERA before today's game is over...

 

2.79 BOS

3.07 NYY

3.14 LAD

3.30 DET

3.31 PHI

3.36 BAL & SEA

3.45 ATL

3.46 KCR

3.47 CLE

3.86 WSH & PIT

3.92 MIL

4.00 MIN

 

We've played a lot of these teams- perhaps padding their numbers.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Nice win, today.

 

Happy Mother's Day

 

7 series won

1 series tied

5 series lost

[Nick]

Nice win, today.

 

Happy Mother's Day

 

7 series won

1 series tied

5 series lost

 

I always penalize a team for losing the series 0-3.

 

So I take away one series win and add to series lost total.

 

Same is true if we win 3-0, but go the other way.

Edited May 12, 2024 by Nick

[Nick]

Sox went 2-11 vs Rays in 3023. We have 7 games coming up.

[moonslav59]

I always penalize a team for losing the series 0-3.

 

So I take away one series win and add to series lost total.

 

Same is true if we win 3-0, but go the other way.

 

We beat OAK and PIT 3-0.

 

We lost to BAL 0-3. 0-2 to ATL.

 

We lost to CLE 1-3, and later 1-2.

 

2-10 vs BAL, ATL & CLE

 

[moonslav59]

We are 3 games behind KCR and MIN for the #2 and #3 WC slots, and we have a tougher schedule coming up.

 

I know many think it is too early to be even thinking about these things,- but it's where we are at the 1/4 point.

 

The 1/4 surprises, besides the Sox at 21-19:

 

25-17 KCR

20-20 DET

19-20 WSH

 

Bad surprises:

15-25 HOU

16-24 STL

[notin]

We are 3 games behind KCR and MIN for the #2 and #3 WC slots, and we have a tougher schedule coming up.

 

I know many think it is too early to be even thinking about these things,- but it's where we are at the 1/4 point.

 

The 1/4 surprises, besides the Sox at 21-19:

 

25-17 KCR

20-20 DET

19-20 WSH

 

Bad surprises:

15-25 HOU

16-24 STL

 

 

Is St. Louis really a surprise?

 

They finished 71-91 and came in fifth in the NL Central last year…

[moonslav59]

Is St. Louis really a surprise?

 

They finished 71-91 and came in fifth in the NL Central last year…

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought people expected them to be a lot better.

[Duran Is The Man]

I'm not against the choice to demote Wink. Cora and Brez had good reasons.

 

I just provided numbers that showed he was improving over a pretty bad start to 2024.

 

I'm near certain we will see him back up, this year.

 

I do think Campbell deserves another look.

 

I happy to think that despite Giolito, Whitlock and out of options Mata still being on the IL, we are choosing to demote a guy like Wink, instead of trying to decide who to DFA between guys like Brasier, Bleier, Llover or Jacques.

 

Good job, Brez!

 

indeed. now if he could work some magic with the bats.

[Maxbialystock]

We are 3 games behind KCR and MIN for the #2 and #3 WC slots, and we have a tougher schedule coming up.

 

I know many think it is too early to be even thinking about these things,- but it's where we are at the 1/4 point.

 

The 1/4 surprises, besides the Sox at 21-19:

 

25-17 KCR

20-20 DET

19-20 WSH

 

Bad surprises:

15-25 HOU

16-24 STL

 

Despite my nonstop griping, I agree we should at least peek at the wild card standings. This is a lousy hitting team who won today on a prodigious error by the Nats centerfielder and a failure to try by the their rightfielder who could have grabbed Rafaela's ground rule double. But the pitching held up, yet again, and the defense was pretty decent.

 

I'm on blackout, but can watch if I wait 2 hours. I just now saw Rafaela almost grab that freaking dinger by the Nats. He did get his glove on it and he did go over the wall. Very impressive. Plus, of course, he leads the team in rbi's.

 

This team of basically no-names is in fact in the hunt for the postseason despite the execrable hitting and a defense that was the worst in MLB but probably isn't these days. With Pivetta and now Bello back, the pitching just might retain their best ERA in MLB. If you ever doubted the importance of pitching, this season should change your mind. The same just might apply to the Sox manager, what's-his-name.

 

As for the Rays, I can't think of a better time to play them right freaking now.

Edited May 13, 2024 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

We keep hearing about how Rafaela leads the team in RBIs.

 

Here are the current RBI leaders projected for the season (RBIs x 4:)

 

88 Rafaela

64 Duran

56 Abreu, Devers, Wong

52 O'Neill

44 McGuire

[Nick]

Despite my nonstop griping, I agree we should at least peek at the wild card standings. This is a lousy hitting team who won today on a prodigious error by the Nats centerfielder and a failure to try by the their rightfielder who could have grabbed Rafaela's ground rule double. But the pitching held up, yet again, and the defense was pretty decent.

 

I'm on blackout, but can watch if I wait 2 hours. I just now saw Rafaela almost grab that freaking dinger by the Nats. He did get his glove on it and he did go over the wall. Very impressive. Plus, of course, he leads the team in rbi's.

 

This team of basically no-names is in fact in the hunt for the postseason despite the execrable hitting and a defense that was the worst in MLB but probably isn't these days. With Pivetta and now Bello back, the pitching just might retain their best ERA in MLB. If you ever doubted the importance of pitching, this season should change your mind. The same just might apply to the Sox manager, what's-his-name.

 

As for the Rays, I can't think of a better time to play them right freaking now.

 

It helps that most of the guys are coming into their prime years, Houck, Kutter, Whitlock and Criswell. Then we have the 'kid' plus a young veteran in Pivetta.

 

Sprinkle them with the magic of Bailey and Breslow and you got something special. Casas injury is devastating to the offense. O'Neil will surely come down and there's no way Wong can keep up his current pace.

Edited May 13, 2024 by Nick

[notin]

We keep hearing about how Rafaela leads the team in RBIs.

 

Here are the current RBI leaders projected for the season (RBIs x 4:)

 

88 Rafaela

64 Duran

56 Abreu, Devers, Wong

52 O'Neill

44 McGuire

 

 

It makes sense Rafaela leads the team in RBIs. He’s come up with more baserunners on than anyone else on the team…

[Nick]

We have $82M in dead money including Yoshida.....unfreaking believable. Spend wisely, we did not.

 

Good thing 5 relievers plus a starter are minimum wage guys along with Wong, Casas, Grissom, Rafaela, Duran and Abreu.

Edited May 13, 2024 by Nick

[Hitch]

Sox went 2-11 vs Rays in 3023. We have 7 games coming up.

 

I'm glad I won't be around to see the board reaction to that stretch.

 

Poor Henry the 105th.

[Hugh2]

We have $82M in dead money including Yoshida.....unfreaking believable. Spend wisely, we did not.

 

Good thing 5 relievers plus a starter are minimum wage guys along with Wong, Casas, Grissom, Rafaela, Duran and Abreu.

 

So roughly 1/3 of our salary is on the IL, seems like a lot but I wonder how that compares to other teams. Would also like to see what those numbers are across the league in a few months. It must be very fluid.

[Hugh2]

And then I find this. Apparently it's 68 million on the IL.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2024/sort/cap_injured/dir/desc