Missing out getting free agents Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber may be disappointing at first but a long-term saving grace for the Red Sox.

Pete Alonso opted out of a 2-year $54 million contract with the Mets to sign a 5-year $155 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles as he enters his age 31 year.

Entering free agency, Kyle Schwarber elected to stay with the Phillies on a 5-year $150 million contract entering his age 33 year.

From Baseball-Reference.com, the most similar player to Pete Alonso is Khris Davis.

Here are their stats through their age 30 seasons.

From Age 31 onwards, Khris Davis only lasted three more years and hit only 28 more home runs.

Another cautionary tale for the Orioles might be their own Chris Davis who played from 2008 to 2020 and hit 241 home runs through his age 30 season and only 54 afterwards How will Pete Alonso perform through his contract through his age 35 season?

Kyle Schwarber entering his age 33 season has a career similar to Dave Kingman who was most known also for his home run power and low average. 

Dave Kingman played for 5 more years ending his career with 442 home runs.

The Phillies also have the precedence of signing another powerful slugger, Ryan Howard to a 5-year extension for $125 million after his age 31 season.. Here's his performance through his age 32 season with 300 home runs. After age 32, Howard only hit 82 home runs in the final three years of his contract.

With an average value of $30 to $31 million per year for a 1st baseman and designated hitter, the Orioles and Phillies are paying premium prices for two positions low on the defensive spectrum and where careers go to end. The home run hitting skills of Alonso and Schwarber are among the most perishable of skills with age.

Combined with their historically low batting averages and high strikeout rates, it is unclear that both will continue to produce at high levels for the rest of their contracts.

Long term contracts tend to become big liabilities in their later years as performance declines as it inevitably will with age.

Even thought these contracts appear to have secured Alonso and Schwarber for the Orioles and Phillies for the next five years, this may not prevent the players from being moved as circumstances change. Schwarber will vest in his 10 and 5 rights[1] after this season in 2026 and gain full veto rights over trades, and Pete Alonso has a limited no-trade clause which may limit the Orioles and Phillies ability to move these players elsewhere.

Losing out on these two players especially with their trade protections basically is probably a burden the Red Sox are glad to have avoided. What do you think?

[1] https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/10-and-5-rights