A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Randy Red Sox]

And yet we traded for Chris Sale once upon a time. Of course you can trade for pitching, it all comes down to whether or not you want to pay the price.

 

you are right of course. Yorke and Jordan are the same level of prospects as Kopech and Moncada were at the time of the Sale trade. Let's just stick with our current philosophy of drafting the best SS available in the draft since it has worked out so well these past several years.

[moonslav59]

Mayer went into that draft as the #1 ranked prospect so NO !!

 

Every pick we make is our #1 ranked prospect when taken.

 

The same theory applies.

[notin]

people need to stop defending this pick. It has proven to be a terrible pick no matter how one may spin it

 

 

I’m not defending the pick as much as I am pointing out the logic of re-writing the draft. “We could have taken Bobby Miller!” If Miller was such as obvious pick, why did the next 12 teams pass on him?

 

He’s also only 22 and in AA. When did that become criteria for being a bust? If he went to college, he’d be eligible for the draft this year…

[notin]

Mayer went into that draft as the #1 ranked prospect so NO !!

 

Three teams passed on Mayer and Cowser went number 5. Taking Cowser over Mayer is pretty defensible IMO. Especially if you prefer college hitters over high school…

[Duran Is The Man]

Would you have taken Sal Frelick or Colton Cowser over Marcelo Mayer?

 

i would have taken Cowser.

[Hugh2]

you are right of course. Yorke and Jordan are the same level of prospects as Kopech and Moncada were at the time of the Sale trade. Let's just stick with our current philosophy of drafting the best SS available in the draft since it has worked out so well these past several years.

 

Well the last several years have us Teel, Anthony, and Mayer.

 

All currently in the top 31 in all of baseball.

 

So yeah, seems to be working out great.

[Hugh2]

people need to stop defending this pick. It has proven to be a terrible pick no matter how one may spin it

 

No one is defending the pick, people are explaining to you draft strategy.

 

This seems to elude you.

 

Offer more than going back years and looking at results in hindsight and saying “we should of drafted that guy”

 

I’m sure there’s a lot of teams that would have drafted Mookie Betts 5 times over before he fell to the Sox in the 5th round

[Hugh2]

He's a righty. His k rate has gone way up this year, but he's only completed 5 innings once in 6 games this year. Probably gets a midseason promotion to Greenville. Not sure what the trade value is.

 

I’m thinking Erod, he’s not a lefty.

 

Yeah, I don’t seriously think he holds substantial value at the moment, but it sounds like he’s getting a lot of buzz from scouts. I suspect if he keeps it up he’ll get some helium.

[Hugh2]

With his 6th home run of the year yesterday Kristian Cambell raised his OPS to .985

 

The 2023 4th round pick is in his full first season of pro ball after being drafted as a short stop…..he’s been splitting his time between 2nd base and Centerfield. No SS.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’m not defending the pick as much as I am pointing out the logic of re-writing the draft. “We could have taken Bobby Miller!” If Miller was such as obvious pick, why did the next 12 teams pass on him?

 

 

No one's rewriting the draft. It's the Red Sox draft strategy that we've all questioned for at least a half decade.

 

Boston's system has been bereft of legitimate starting pitching prospects, and the draft is one obvious way to build depth.

 

Whether you like Yorke or not, the fact is that a dozen pitchers were picked between him and Jordan, and the Sox could've nabbed one of them instead, and still signed Blaze.

 

No one knows if anyone will make the majors or be a star, but the odds may just favor big arms like Miller, Cavalli or Jones -- guys already pushing 100 mph -- over a Henry Owens, whose scouting report on Baseball Prospectus noted had a "sitting velocity of 89-91".

[moonslav59]

Well the last several years have us Teel, Anthony, and Mayer.

 

All currently in the top 31 in all of baseball.

 

So yeah, seems to be working out great.

 

Exactly, but we often hear about the misses, who may end up not being misses, in some cases.

 

We've had way more "misses" with pitchers, starting with TBall and Groome. We've had just one "hit" on early drafted pitchers: Houck, for over a decade.

[mvp 78]

I’m not defending the pick as much as I am pointing out the logic of re-writing the draft. “We could have taken Bobby Miller!” If Miller was such as obvious pick, why did the next 12 teams pass on him?

 

He’s also only 22 and in AA. When did that become criteria for being a bust? If he went to college, he’d be eligible for the draft this year…

 

Cool, he's Rule 5 eligible this offseason. I'm not adding him. He's fallen behind other prospects and has had a string of middling seasons. He's not athletic. He doesn't have a lot of power. He's not a great fielder. His hit tool took a step backwards in the past few years.

[mvp 78]

I’m thinking Erod, he’s not a lefty.

 

Yeah, I don’t seriously think he holds substantial value at the moment, but it sounds like he’s getting a lot of buzz from scouts. I suspect if he keeps it up he’ll get some helium.

 

He's had a good start to the season, but needs to do it for a longer period of time and maybe reach AA before he has a lot of trade value. He hasn't pitched very well prior to this season.

[notin]

No one's rewriting the draft. It's the Red Sox draft strategy that we've all questioned for at least a half decade.

 

Boston's system has been bereft of legitimate starting pitching prospects, and the draft is one obvious way to build depth.

 

Whether you like Yorke or not, the fact is that a dozen pitchers were picked between him and Jordan, and the Sox could've nabbed one of them instead, and still signed Blaze.

 

No one knows if anyone will make the majors or be a star, but the odds may just favor big arms like Miller, Cavalli or Jones -- guys already pushing 100 mph -- over a Henry Owens, whose scouting report on Baseball Prospectus noted had a "sitting velocity of 89-91".

 

Odds favor another outcome for the 100mph arms, too, with Cavalli being a prime example.

 

If the odds did favor velocity, teams would draft velocity. But when it comes to making MLB, what the odds do (did?) favor is hitting over pitching. And that’s (probably?) why the Sox didn’t draft pitchers early…

[mvp 78]

With his 6th home run of the year yesterday Kristian Cambell raised his OPS to .985

 

The 2023 4th round pick is in his full first season of pro ball after being drafted as a short stop…..he’s been splitting his time between 2nd base and Centerfield. No SS.

 

He's not a very good IFer when I've seen him. Maybe he can be a UTIL type?

[mvp 78]

No one's rewriting the draft. It's the Red Sox draft strategy that we've all questioned for at least a half decade.

 

Boston's system has been bereft of legitimate starting pitching prospects, and the draft is one obvious way to build depth.

 

Whether you like Yorke or not, the fact is that a dozen pitchers were picked between him and Jordan, and the Sox could've nabbed one of them instead, and still signed Blaze.

 

No one knows if anyone will make the majors or be a star, but the odds may just favor big arms like Miller, Cavalli or Jones -- guys already pushing 100 mph -- over a Henry Owens, whose scouting report on Baseball Prospectus noted had a "sitting velocity of 89-91".

 

A HS LHP throwing 91 in 2011 was not a bad get. The problem with him wasn't even velo, but the BB rate that exploded when he turned 23. He was still a good prospect at 22, but completely lost it.

[notin]

i would have taken Cowser.

 

Like I said, defensible pick.

 

I like Mayer and keep it, and it looks better if the Sox has been able to sign another collegiate outfielder in second round selection Jud Fabian…

[Nick]

OPS for 2nd base is 15th in AL.

 

1B & SS is 9th and DH 11th.

 

Grissom's OPS is .297. I think I'm more concerned that he is not at 'full strength' and he literally means it. He lost about 15 lbs when his debut was delayed with the flue.

 

If we're still in contention by May 31st and he's not hitting any better, he maybe platooned. It's unfortunate but with Casas out we can't have too many more black holes.

 

Perhaps OBP guru Meidroth who has 28 walks and 30 hits in AAA should be brought up.

Edited May 15, 2024 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Like I said, defensible pick.

 

I like Mayer and keep it, and it looks better if the Sox has been able to sign another collegiate outfielder in second round selection Jud Fabian…

 

If that happens, they may not be able to take Roman Anthony in the following year.

[notin]

If that happens, they may not be able to take Roman Anthony in the following year.

 

True as he was a compensatory pick. But that’s just a happy eventual outcome. The Sox obviously wanted to sign Fabian

Edited May 15, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

OPS for 2nd base is 15th in AL.

 

1B & SS is 9th and DH 11th.

 

Grissom's OPS is .297. I think I'm more concerned that he is not at 'full strength' and he literally means it. He lost about 15 lbs when his debut was delayed with the flue.

 

If we're still in contention by May 31st and he's not hitting any better, he maybe platooned. It's unfortunate but with Casas out we can't have too many more black holes.

 

He's got 37 PAs, which have essentially been like ST'ing at bats.

 

To me, he gets a longer look than 12 more games.

[Nick]

He's got 37 PAs, which have essentially been like ST'ing at bats.

 

To me, he gets a longer look than 12 more games.

 

I agree. My only point is at some point he has to show progress. He's good looking athlete for sure.

[moonslav59]

No one's rewriting the draft. It's the Red Sox draft strategy that we've all questioned for at least a half decade.

 

Boston's system has been bereft of legitimate starting pitching prospects, and the draft is one obvious way to build depth.

 

Whether you like Yorke or not, the fact is that a dozen pitchers were picked between him and Jordan, and the Sox could've nabbed one of them instead, and still signed Blaze.

 

No one knows if anyone will make the majors or be a star, but the odds may just favor big arms like Miller, Cavalli or Jones -- guys already pushing 100 mph -- over a Henry Owens, whose scouting report on Baseball Prospectus noted had a "sitting velocity of 89-91".

 

This whole Yorke pick talk and his value pales compared to the T Ball pick.

 

Teams miss on draftees, all the time, and maybe Yorke may come back and surprise us all.

 

We are talking draft strategy and no one pick should prove or disprove a strategy's effectiveness.

 

I fully understand the desire to improve our farm's pitching, but I firmly believe taking a pitcher, just because he's a pitcher, over someone we think is clearly better is not a good strategy.

 

On top of that, until we prove we can pick good pitchers, I'm not sure why we'd want to keep banging our head against the wall with bad pitchers being drafted, over and over. You want more guys like this (not that all are doomed to failure)?

 

115 Duffy '23

99 Rogers '22

105 E R-C '21

118 Wu-Yelland '20

107 Zeferjahn '19

100 Feltman '18

24 Houck '17

12 Groome '16, 88 S Anderson '16

171 Lakins '15

33 Kopech '14

7 TBall '13 & 43 Stankiewicz '13

 

These are all our top pitchers taken in the last 11 seasons (first pitcher drafted and or top 100 pick)

 

We are 1 for 4 in top pitchers drafted success.

 

The one we got right, Houck, was the 3rd lowest pick of the 4, and the lowest of the first round picks.

 

[notin]

This whole Yorke pick talk and his value pales compared to the T Ball pick.

 

Teams miss on draftees, all the time, and maybe Yorke may come back and surprise us all.

 

We are talking draft strategy and no one pick should prove or disprove a strategy's effectiveness.

 

I fully understand the desire to improve our farm's pitching, but I firmly believe taking a pitcher, just because he's a pitcher, over someone we think is clearly better is not a good strategy.

 

On top of that, until we prove we can pick good pitchers, I'm not sure why we'd want to keep banging our head against the wall with bad pitchers being drafted, over and over. You want more guys like this (not that all are doomed to failure)?

 

115 Duffy '23

99 Rogers '22

105 E R-C '21

118 Wu-Yelland '20

107 Zeferjahn '19

100 Feltman '18

24 Houck '17

12 Groome '16, 88 S Anderson '16

171 Lakins '15

33 Kopech '14

7 TBall '13 & 43 Stankiewicz '13

 

These are all our top pitchers taken in the last 11 seasons (first pitcher drafted and or top 100 pick)

 

We are 1 for 4 in top pitchers drafted success.

 

The one we got right, Houck, was the 3rd lowest pick of the 4, and the lowest of the first round picks.

 

 

I’m not asking for research, but I suspect hitting on 1 out of 4 first pitchers is probably fairly average…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Posters are allowed to voice opinions about moves the Red Sox make or don't make. We all want them to improve.

 

We can agree or disagree on why they should've paid Betts market value or Cora resting a hot hitter or building up pitching depth by adding power arms.

 

There's little doubt that reporters who rank farm systems have said the Red Sox have some good position prospects, and zero potential top-of-the-rotation pitchers right now.

[Nick]

Agreed, and it's not like Houck has been a longtime ace or even a #2 or #3.

 

It seems like a lot of really good pitchers were taken in lower rounds by teams that do much better than we do with those types of picks.

 

Hopefully, with some new blood the organization, we will start hitting on more pitching picks than we have done, in the past 10-15 years.

 

That being said, I kinda like the foundation of young ML pitchers we have, right now, but we are still an ace and maybe another very good pitcher away from having a dependable solid staff.

 

We lose Pivetta, Jansen and Martin, this winter.

Pivetta has 200 more IP than any other Sox pitcher, since 2021, and has been pretty solid for 3+ years.

Jansen is the best closer we've had since Kimbrel.

Martin had the best set-up man season in 2023 that we've had in a very long time.

 

We may have Giolito and Hendriks for 2025, but we will need more.

 

The current foundation for 2025 and some for beyond:

 

SP:

Houck, Crawford, Bello, Giolito, Criswell, Fitts (Gambrell, Murphy, Walter, Wikelman)

Pen:

Hendriks, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, Winckowski, Fulmer, Campbell, Kelly, Mata, Boser

(Uwasawa, Guerrero, Zeferjahn...)

 

We still have Whitlock as a starter. He's not a reliever until Breslow says so......Murphy and Walter doesn't get me excited at all. They are long relievers. I still see Pivetta on the trading block especially Whitlock comes back and Criswell is still pitching well.

 

Who can he fetch for us? I'm not ready to commit 4 years for Pivetta. Maybe two.

[moonslav59]

We still have Whitlock as a starter. He's not a reliever until Breslow says so......Murphy and Walter doesn't get me excited at all. They are long relievers. I still see Pivetta on the trading block especially Whitlock comes back and Criswell is still pitching well.

 

Who can he fetch for us? I'm not ready to commit 4 years for Pivetta. Maybe two.

 

Yes, my bad on Whitlock.

 

I'd like to see us lock up Pivetta, if we think his recent injury is not a major concern.

[moonslav59]

I’m not asking for research, but I suspect hitting on 1 out of 4 first pitchers is probably fairly average…

 

(corrected post)

 

Agreed, and it's not like Houck has been a longtime ace or even a #2 or #3.

 

It seems like a lot of really good pitchers were taken in lower rounds by teams that do much better than we do with those types of picks.

 

Hopefully, with some new blood the organization, we will start hitting on more pitching picks than we have done, in the past 10-15 years.

 

That being said, I kinda like the foundation of young ML pitchers we have, right now, but we are still an ace and maybe another very good pitcher away from having a dependable solid staff.

 

We lose Pivetta, Jansen and Martin, this winter.

Pivetta has 200 more IP than any other Sox pitcher, since 2021, and has been pretty solid for 3+ years.

Jansen is the best closer we've had since Kimbrel.

Martin had the best set-up man season in 2023 that we've had in a very long time.

 

We may have Giolito and Hendriks for 2025, but we will need more.

 

The current foundation for 2025 and some for beyond:

 

SP:

Houck, Crawford, Bello, Giolito, Criswell, Fitts (Gambrell, Murphy, Walter, Wikelman)

Pen:

Whitlock, Hendriks, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, Winckowski, Fulmer, Campbell, Kelly, Mata

(Booser, Uwasawa, Guerrero, Zeferjahn...)

[moonslav59]

Posters are allowed to voice opinions about moves the Red Sox make or don't make. We all want them to improve.

 

We can agree or disagree on why they should've paid Betts market value or Cora resting a hot hitter or building up pitching depth by adding power arms.

 

There's little doubt that reporters who rank farm systems have said the Red Sox have some good position prospects, and zero potential top-of-the-rotation pitchers right now.

 

I think we all agree on that, and I welcome differing views, especially yours.

 

I do think it is a good sign that a few of our top pitching prospects are Breslow additions, in such a sort time at the helm.

[Maxbialystock]

Yes, my bad on Whitlock.

 

I'd like to see us lock up Pivetta, if we think his recent injury is not a major concern.

 

Here's my 2 cents on Whitlock. It's simple, really--way too much repertoire for a reliever. The best ones use at the most 3 pitches. Right now Jansen is getting away with just one pitch, a 90-92 mph cutter he moves around the strike zone. Three years ago Barnes emerged as this amazing closer--he had 24 saves--because he threw just 2 pitches, a pretty decent fastball, and the big freaking curve. Then MLB umpires starting checking pitchers for foreign substances or whatever and somehow that really affected Barnes confidence/effectiveness. Kimbrel has prospered with the exact same two pitches--fastball and big curve.

 

When Koji Uehara was at his best circa 2013, he had two pitches, a slow fastball (88 mph on a good night) and a splitter that really worked. Plus he had good command and just tons of confidence--and was absolutely incredible in the 2013 postseason--in fact, the polar opposite of Kimbrel in the 2018 postseason.

 

Whitlock has probably 5 decent pitches and is more than happy to use all of them. Sale for most of his career--and I'm talking about the good Sale--basically went with 3 pitches--fastball, slider, and changeup. This year I've seen a cutter, but he doesn't use it that often. That slider works against righties because he can consistently hit the outside corner with it.

Edited May 15, 2024 by Maxbialystock