A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I also wonder if part of the reason the Sox took Yorke when they did was because they thought it was their last chance to grab him, since they had no second round pick that year and did not think he would last until #89.

 

Bloom said if the pandemic didn't cancel the '20 high school season that the Sox expected Yorke to be ranked as a pre-draft first rounder. He is progressing towards the majors, but it's interesting that of the 13 Sox listed by career minor league stats, Yorke is the only one right now with a sub-.800 OPS.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How often do you see any first year players or prospects traded for other first year players or prospects, pitchers or not?

 

Did the Sox manage to trade a couple young players like Moncada and Kopech and others for a pitcher?

 

Arguably the biggest blockbuster in this Red Sox century -- the #1 prospect in the majors, along with their top pitching prospect, for the best pitcher in baseball. And it was eight seasons ago.

 

Since then, we've proposed more trades on just this forum than non-Boston fans probably have on free BTV... and just stared at our monitors with Chaim as deadline after deadline evaporated.

 

And no, I didn't forget Dombro horrifying the Nation swapping another Sox top pitching prospect for a journeyman lefty; that one kinda worked out, anyway.

[notin]

Totally on board with getting those two for a guy who had worn out his welcome and a veteran bullpen piece. I'm just blabbing about stockpiling all the "best" players drafted who "can be flipped for pitching" -- when they never are.

 

And it rarely seems like it goes the other way -- Seattle wouldn't even budge on its #5 starter this winter... unless you're the Rays, and can afford to trade Joe Ryan for a 40-year old DH, or a first-rounder like Liberatore for a Cuban signee like Arozarena, targeted as an instant star (but knowing Tampa, will probably soon be dealt for another arm that throws 100 mph with a sweeping dirtball change-up that comes from the side and no batter can see).

 

The Rays will be starting Aaron Civale today, whom they acquired for a first baseman they drafted in the 2021 second round.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Rays will be starting Aaron Civale today, whom they acquired for a first baseman they drafted in the 2021 second round.

 

I was talking about the Sox on talksox. Just don't touch that Paulino.

 

We all know if they're not going to spend for "legitimate" starting pitchers (who don't sport a 5 ERA the past two years), Breslow needs to make a few decisions he promised that he deemed "uncomfortable."

Edited May 14, 2024 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[notin]

Arguably the biggest blockbuster in this Red Sox century -- the #1 prospect in the majors, along with their top pitching prospect, for the best pitcher in baseball. And it was eight seasons ago.

 

Since then, we've proposed more trades on just this forum than non-Boston fans probably have on free BTV... and just stared at our monitors with Chaim as deadline after deadline evaporated.

 

And no, I didn't forget Dombro horrifying the Nation swapping another Sox top pitching prospect for a journeyman lefty; that one kinda worked out, anyway.

 

 

The Braves also acquired Chris Sale because they stockpiled middle infield talent, and had nowhere to play Vaughn Grissom...

Edited May 14, 2024 by notin

[notin]

I was talking about the Sox on talksox. Just don't touch that Paulino.

 

We all know if they're not going to spend for "legitimate" starting pitchers (who don't sport a 5 ERA the past two years), Breslow needs to make a few decisions he promised that he deemed "uncomfortable."

 

I'm talking about around MLB. We can guess all day long who should get traded and who shouldn't, but not like we have any intel.

 

I think drafting pitching for the sake of drafting pitching is more likely to fill the Sox farm system with Brian Johnson types as opposed to Ian Anderson types. But hey, maybe you like AC/DC more than Jethro Tull...

[notin]

Also, maybe teams are looking at hitting the harder commodity.

 

Since 2007 (as far back as data goes on Fangraphs), the average velocity of a fastball has gone up from 91.1mph to 94.1mph (in 2023, with an incomplete 2024 sitting at 93.9). Think about how crazy that is, especially given the surge in season-ending injuries pitchers in 2024 vs 2007. 3mph might not seem like much, but the ball gets to the plate about .07 seconds faster on average, which is enough to make the difference between barreling ball up the middle and sending it flying into the stands along the baseline. And with how many more pitchers it takes to simply get through a season now, yet they still throw an average of 3mph faster. Granted, some of this is also a decreased dependency on starting pitching, but you still need to pitch the same number of innings.

 

If every pitcher in the league is now throwing 3mph faster than they were 17 years ago, it gets much harder for players to hit it. A while back, Bellhorn made a point about how development has taken leaps and bounds with pitchers, so maybe some teams are thinking that if pitchers are going to that much harder, it will get harder to acquire players who can hit.

 

And since most of the money is spent on the first round pick, last year's top pick getting $9.2mill, does it make sense to make sure you have money spent on top hitting talent? I watched Skenes' debut (until the rain delayed it), that guy was hitting 102mph regularly. And he was in college last year!!

Edited May 14, 2024 by notin

[notin]

Bloom said if the pandemic didn't cancel the '20 high school season that the Sox expected Yorke to be ranked as a pre-draft first rounder. He is progressing towards the majors, but it's interesting that of the 13 Sox listed by career minor league stats, Yorke is the only one right now with a sub-.800 OPS.

 

It's also possible another organization had a similar view of Yorke...

[moonslav59]

Here are the Sox ERAs listed in order of most IP, this season:

 

2.24 Crawford

2.24 Houck

3.13 Bello

2.10 Criswell

3.33 Wink (in AAA)

1.74 Slaten

4.34 Anderson (on really bad game hurt)

1.96 Whitlock (should be back, soon)

1.56 Weissert

0.53 Bernardino

4.11 Martin (righting the ship)

3.60 Pivetta

2.63 Jansen

3.09 Booser

 

These are all the Sox pitchers with more than 8.1 IP.

Nobody over 4.34 (Anderson)

Only two over 4.10 (add Martin)

Only 3 over 3.60 (add Pivetta

Only 4 over 3.33 (add Wink)

 

All season, we have just 3 pitchers with an ERA over Anderson's 4.34:

5.40 Jacques 1.2 IP

6.55 Joely 11.0 IP

12.79 Campbell 6.1 IP

 

[Hugh2]

Yorke AND jordan in the same trade won't get you a decent P. Maybe a reliever.

 

SO what, I bet I could find two draftees in any teams draft you couldn't trade for a bag of baseballs. From the position sides, there's really zero argument against Bostons overall draft strategy, no one hits all the time, heck no one hits most of the time. It's such a lame argument to go back and pick on one draftee who didn't work out as if it personally hurts you or something.

[Hugh2]

that is what i have been saying for years now

 

And yet we traded for Chris Sale once upon a time. Of course you can trade for pitching, it all comes down to whether or not you want to pay the price.

[Hugh2]

What would Romero & Anthony get us?

 

Sometimes, drafts don't work out as planned. We seem to focus on those drafts, a lot.

 

 

I wonder what Mayer and ERC would get us.

 

For those of you who don't know Elmer Rodriguez Cruz was the 4th round pitcher we drafted in 2021, very young for a highschooler at 17.

 

He's only ranked 18th, but he has serious helium and I think could be top 10 by mid year. He's a lefty with good secondaries that is touching 99.

[mvp 78]

Indeed. Maybe Olivarez, Benitez or Judice will surprise.

 

Also, major leaguers in Slaten, Weissert and maybe Campbell.

 

Olivarez? No.

 

Benitez? May pitch in BOS this year.

 

Judice? Has not thrown a single in game pitch yet.

[moonslav59]

Olivarez? No.

 

Benitez? May pitch in BOS this year.

 

Judice? Has not thrown a single in game pitch yet.

 

Benitez is imploding, as we speak.

[mvp 78]

I also wonder if part of the reason the Sox took Yorke when they did was because they thought it was their last chance to grab him, since they had no second round pick that year and did not think he would last until #89.

 

If money was a factor, the pitchers who signed for less than Yorke that round does include Miller, but also Bryce Jarvis, Jared Shuster, Carmen Mlodzinski, Slade Cecconi, Justin Lange and Tanner Burns. The first 4 have all made their MLB debut, but only Miller has made any impact so far. Of course, all except Lange were taken out of college and were much older than Yorke. Jarvis and Shuster were also taken ahead of Miller, which means at least 2 teams had them ranked higher...

 

People have used that as an excuse and said that "well, they also went underslot so that they could go over in round 3." On the balance, Yorke and Jordan have been ok, but not great picks. That's just drafting though. They weren't completely busts right out of the gate, but they may not have MLB impact.

[mvp 78]

Bloom said if the pandemic didn't cancel the '20 high school season that the Sox expected Yorke to be ranked as a pre-draft first rounder. He is progressing towards the majors, but it's interesting that of the 13 Sox listed by career minor league stats, Yorke is the only one right now with a sub-.800 OPS.

 

Is he progressing? He's repeating AA and has worse numbers in 24 than 23.

[mvp 78]

I wonder what Mayer and ERC would get us.

 

For those of you who don't know Elmer Rodriguez Cruz was the 4th round pitcher we drafted in 2021, very young for a highschooler at 17.

 

He's only ranked 18th, but he has serious helium and I think could be top 10 by mid year. He's a lefty with good secondaries that is touching 99.

 

He's a righty. His k rate has gone way up this year, but he's only completed 5 innings once in 6 games this year. Probably gets a midseason promotion to Greenville. Not sure what the trade value is.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Also, maybe teams are looking at hitting the harder commodity.

 

 

Maybe, but if you're looking at that approach rationally -- like the past few offseasons when you noted the Sox needed more pitching, or the past few deadlines, when you complained Bloom didn't do enough -- then maybe Boston should have focused on drafting and signing more proven college hitters than on high school bats with potential.

[notin]

People have used that as an excuse and said that "well, they also went underslot so that they could go over in round 3." On the balance, Yorke and Jordan have been ok, but not great picks. That's just drafting though. They weren't completely busts right out of the gate, but they may not have MLB impact.

 

Did Yorke even go underslot? His $2.75mll bonus was right around where everyone drafted near him signed.

 

But the bottom line is there is a lot of luck in the draft, especially if you don't pick first. The Dodgers grabbed Bobby Miller in that same round, but maybe they would not have if Jared Shuster, Cade Cavalli, or Nick Bitsko fell to them, and that is assuming they were even targeting pitchers. Heck, the second pitcher taken that year with the 4th overall pick was Asa Lacy out of Texas A&M. He hasn't pitched since getting batted around in rookie ball and AA in 2022...

[mvp 78]

@TJStats

Nico Kavadas has been one of the best hitters in AAA this season, posting a 195 wRC+ in 122 PA

 

He has displayed a fantastic eye and power highlighted by his 18.0 BB% and 21.7 Barrel%. His contact metrics are lacking and is very patient, but he launches baseballs when he connects

 

@JustinMLB

64% whiff on breaking balls

 

@IanCundall

His splits against velo are problematic also

[mvp 78]

Did Yorke even go underslot? His $2.75mll bonus was right around where everyone drafted near him signed.

 

But the bottom line is there is a lot of luck in the draft, especially if you don't pick first. The Dodgers grabbed Bobby Miller in that same round, but maybe they would not have if Jared Shuster, Cade Cavalli, or Nick Bitsko fell to them, and that is assuming they were even targeting pitchers. Heck, the second pitcher taken that year with the 4th overall pick was Asa Lacy out of Texas A&M. He hasn't pitched since getting batted around in rookie ball and AA in 2022...

 

Slot was 3.6M.

[moonslav59]

He's a righty. His k rate has gone way up this year, but he's only completed 5 innings once in 6 games this year. Probably gets a midseason promotion to Greenville. Not sure what the trade value is.

 

Single A prospects just don't get the trade returns they used to get.

 

I'm not sure many of our pitching prospects are in high demand, but I wouldn't be looking to trade any away, unless they are part of a deal bringing back a better pitcher.

 

Here is how soxprospects ranks out current pitching prospects: Red= AA level or higher

 

4 in top 10 (none in top 5)

6. Fitts AAA

7. Wikelman AA

8. Perales A+

10. Sandlin A+

 

6 in top 20

13. Slaten MLB

18. E R-C A-

 

16 ranked from 21 to 42 (16 out of 22!)

21. Monegro A+

23. Dobbins AA

25. Guerrero AAA

27. Bastardo AA

28. Gambrell AAA

29. Penrod AA

30. Hoppe AA

31. Zeferjahn AAA

33. Early A+

36. Cohen A-

37. Rogers A+

38. Wehunt A-

39. Mata IL/MLB

40. Mullins A+

41. Troye AA

42. Booser MLB (7 straight pitchers from 36-42)

 

9 of the last 17 are pitchers:

44. Benitez AAA

45. Walter AAA

47. Paez A-

53. Olivarez AA

54. Ehrlicher A-

55. Judice FCL

58. I Coffey AA

59. Cepeda AA

60. Batista FCL

 

 

 

[vegasbob]

@TJStats

Nico Kavadas has been one of the best hitters in AAA this season, posting a 195 wRC+ in 122 PA

 

He has displayed a fantastic eye and power highlighted by his 18.0 BB% and 21.7 Barrel%. His contact metrics are lacking and is very patient, but he launches baseballs when he connects

 

@JustinMLB

64% whiff on breaking balls

 

@IanCundall

His splits against velo are problematic also

 

Sounds like casas redux. Has trouble with FB's above 92 , like so many young hitters.

[notin]

Maybe, but if you're looking at that approach rationally -- like the past few offseasons when you noted the Sox needed more pitching, or the past few deadlines, when you complained Bloom didn't do enough -- then maybe Boston should have focused on drafting and signing more proven college hitters than on high school bats with potential.

 

I think their big need at the last two deadlines was a GM who was not afraid to pay the price to get players that helped the team...

[Duran Is The Man]

Maybe, but if you're looking at that approach rationally -- like the past few offseasons when you noted the Sox needed more pitching, or the past few deadlines, when you complained Bloom didn't do enough -- then maybe Boston should have focused on drafting and signing more proven college hitters than on high school bats with potential.

 

exactly. i would MUCH rather have a proven D1 player over some pimple-faced HS kid who has only shown that he can excel AGAINST OTHER HIGH SCHOOL KIDS.

[jad]

Sounds like casas redux. Has trouble with FB's above 92 , like so many young hitters.

 

Why is that the case? When I go to a minor league game (AA), nearly every pitcher can throw in the 90s. I thought the problem with young players was hitting the curve/slider.

[notin]

exactly. i would MUCH rather have a proven D1 player over some pimple-faced HS kid who has only shown that he can excel AGAINST OTHER HIGH SCHOOL KIDS.

 

Would you have taken Sal Frelick or Colton Cowser over Marcelo Mayer?

[Randy Red Sox]

Is he progressing? He's repeating AA and has worse numbers in 24 than 23.

 

he was chosen about 100 picks above where he was ranked by every team except the Red Sox. what would we expect?

[Randy Red Sox]

Did Yorke even go underslot? His $2.75mll bonus was right around where everyone drafted near him signed.

 

But the bottom line is there is a lot of luck in the draft, especially if you don't pick first. The Dodgers grabbed Bobby Miller in that same round, but maybe they would not have if Jared Shuster, Cade Cavalli, or Nick Bitsko fell to them, and that is assuming they were even targeting pitchers. Heck, the second pitcher taken that year with the 4th overall pick was Asa Lacy out of Texas A&M. He hasn't pitched since getting batted around in rookie ball and AA in 2022...

 

people need to stop defending this pick. It has proven to be a terrible pick no matter how one may spin it

[Randy Red Sox]

Mayer went into that draft as the #1 ranked prospect so NO !!