A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

So roughly 1/3 of our salary is on the IL, seems like a lot but I wonder how that compares to other teams. Would also like to see what those numbers are across the league in a few months. It must be very fluid.

 

And context is always needed. Yoshida is merely on the IL, but Story and Giolito are on the SYNY (See You Next Year) list.

[moonslav59]

And then I find this. Apparently it's 68 million on the IL.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2024/sort/cap_injured/dir/desc

 

Sounds right...

per cots:

Actual

$22.5 Story

$18.6 Yoshida

$16.0 Giolito

$3.5 Whitlock

$2.0 Hendriks

I hesitate to list guys like Casas, Mata and Murphy, since they are min wage.players replaced by min wage players.

 

AAV:

23.3 Story

19.3 Giolito

18.0 Yoshida

5.0 Hendriks

4.7 Whitlock

[moonslav59]

And context is always needed. Yoshida is merely on the IL, but Story and Giolito are on the SYNY (See You Next Year) list.

 

Whitlock should come back, too.

 

Hendriks ETA ia about August.

[mvp 78]

Whitlock should come back, too.

 

Hendriks ETA ia about August.

 

I believe Whitlock is already throwing to hitters and is scheduled to make a rehab start for WOO on Wednesday.

[Maxbialystock]

I look at salaries vs. performance this way--

 

Sale, $17M, pitches for the Braves.

Turner, $7M, plays elsewhere.

Story, $22.5M, out for the season after diving for a ball.

Yoshida, $18.6M, WAR (as a DH) to date, +0.2, now on IL with an undiagnosed hand injury and could be out awhile. Unlikely to be missed.

Giolito, $18M, out for the season and maybe some of next season

Whitlock, $3.5M, 4 good starts, ERA 1.96, 18.1 IP, WAR +0.9, due back this month, but almost certainly fragile.

Devers, $29M, shoulder issues, defensive issues, WAR +0.9--so not earning his pay.

Jansen, $16M, good closer, but the combined salaries of starters Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, and now Criswell add up to $15M. So Jansen was/is clearly an overspend, and the rotation an unbelievable bargain.

Pivetta, $7.5M, WAR +0.3, and overspend so far, but who knows?

O'Neill, $6M, WAR +0.9, about right, but his hitting has cratered since the concussion

 

Contrast the above with the astounding pitching, which is underpaid (except for Jansen, who is overpaid), and with these bargain basement performers so far--

 

Duran, WAR +2.2, min MLB salary $750K

Abreu, WAR +1.6, ditto

Wong, WAR +0.8, ditto

McGuire, WAR + 0.5, $1.5M

Rafaela, WAR +0.2, ditto, leads Sox in rbi's with 22 over 2d best Duran 16.

[mvp 78]

I look at salaries vs. performance this way--

 

Sale, $17M, pitches for the Braves.

Turner, $7M, plays elsewhere.

Story, $22.5M, out for the season after diving for a ball.

Yoshida, $18.6M, WAR (as a DH) to date, +0.2, now on IL with an undiagnosed hand injury and could be out awhile. Unlikely to be missed.

Giolito, $18M, out for the season and maybe some of next season

Whitlock, $3.5M, 4 good starts, ERA 1.96, 18.1 IP, WAR +0.9, due back this month, but almost certainly fragile.

Devers, $29M, shoulder issues, defensive issues, WAR +0.9--so not earning his pay.

Jansen, $16M, good closer, but the combined salaries of starters Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, and now Criswell add up to $15M. So Jansen was/is clearly an overspend, and the rotation an unbelievable bargain.

Pivetta, $7.5M, WAR +0.3, and overspend so far, but who knows?

O'Neill, $6M, WAR +0.9, about right, but his hitting has cratered since the concussion

 

Contrast the above with the astounding pitching, which is underpaid (except for Jansen, who is overpaid), and with these bargain basement performers so far--

 

Duran, WAR +2.2, min MLB salary $750K

Abreu, WAR +1.6, ditto

Wong, WAR +0.8, ditto

McGuire, WAR + 0.5, $1.5M

Rafaela, WAR +0.2, ditto, leads Sox in rbi's with 22 over 2d best Duran 16.

 

At this point through the season, Raffy's 1.1 fWAR should prorate to about 3 fWAR for a full season. Per their valuation, that's over 32M in value. He's been fine.

 

And worrying about 3M for Whitlock due to fragility issues? 3M is barely anything these days.

[moonslav59]

Cots has these numbers for more "dead money:"

 

17 Sale

4.2 Turner

2.0 Joely

.74 Hosmer

.14 Reys

.03 Gutierres

.02 Jacques

 

About $25M added onto IL money that is "dead."

 

Alive money:

.70 for Bernardino

.74 for Grissom, Slaten, Weissert & Abreu

.76 for Wong, Duran, Wink, Houck and Casas

.93 Criswell

[Maxbialystock]

Cots has these numbers for more "dead money:"

 

17 Sale

4.2 Turner

2.0 Joely

.74 Hosmer

.14 Reys

.03 Gutierres

.02 Jacques

 

About $25M added onto IL money that is "dead."

 

Alive money:

.70 for Bernardino

.74 for Grissom, Slaten, Weissert & Abreu

.76 for Wong, Duran, Wink, Houck and Casas

.93 Criswell

 

Love both the "dead" and "alive" categories. Very helpful.

 

But I would add "mostly dead" to include Story, Giolito, and Yoshida.

[notin]

Love both the "dead" and "alive" categories. Very helpful.

 

But I would add "mostly dead" to include Story, Giolito, and Yoshida.

 

Mostly dead? Now you're Miracle Max Bialystock?

[Maxbialystock]

At this point through the season, Raffy's 1.1 fWAR should prorate to about 3 fWAR for a full season. Per their valuation, that's over 32M in value. He's been fine.

 

And worrying about 3M for Whitlock due to fragility issues? 3M is barely anything these days.

 

You could be right on both points. I'm one of the few who ithinks leaving Devers at 3b is the right move because you can't have a team filled with DH's. Those who can field--and Devers can field and throw--should. Devers has had 50 total chances so far with 1 error.

 

That said, Devers has just 52 total bases compared to Duran's 67, O'Neill's 62, Wong's 50, and Abreu's 49. Also 14 rbi's to Rafaela's 22, Duran's 22, Wong's 14, and Abreu's 14. I hasten to add those other guys are also pretty decent on defense.

 

As for Whitlock, his WAR so far is terrific, but I do think his fragility is an issue. However, I guess you're right that, even though $3M is a lot on this pitching staff, it's actually not much.

[Maxbialystock]

Mostly dead? Now you're Miracle Max Bialystock?

 

Love Miracle Max. Sheer genius. William Goldman, a great writer, did the screenplay, but Reiner let Crystal improvise.

[mvp 78]

You could be right on both points. I'm one of the few who ithinks leaving Devers at 3b is the right move because you can't have a team filled with DH's. Those who can field--and Devers can field and throw--should. Devers has had 50 total chances so far with 1 error.

 

That said, Devers has just 52 total bases compared to Duran's 67, O'Neill's 62, Wong's 50, and Abreu's 49. Also 14 rbi's to Rafaela's 22, Duran's 22, Wong's 14, and Abreu's 14. I hasten to add those other guys are also pretty decent on defense.

 

As for Whitlock, his WAR so far is terrific, but I do think his fragility is an issue. However, I guess you're right that, even though $3M is a lot on this pitching staff, it's actually not much.

 

Yeah, Devers has been better defensively this year. Maybe it's just a small sample, but he's been much better than the s*** show we've seen at other positions, even factoring in his Adrian Beltré linebacker impression.

[Nick]

I said DEAD $$$$.

 

That should include $17M paid to Atlanta.

 

I stand by my $82M.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, Devers has been better defensively this year. Maybe it's just a small sample, but he's been much better than the s*** show we've seen at other positions, even factoring in his Adrian Beltré linebacker impression.

 

Devers seems to have long stretches of being bad on D and also some short and long stretches of being pretty good on defense.

 

I think he put together one full season of decent numbers.

 

Let's hope this is his second one.

[moonslav59]

I said DEAD $$$$.

 

That should include $17M paid to Atlanta.

 

I stand by my $82M.

 

The $82M might be low.

 

$65M IL + $17M Sale= 82M

 

Then add...

4.2 Turner

2.0 Joely

.74 Hosmer

.14 Reyes

.03 Gutierres

.02 Jacques

[Bellhorn04]

The $82M might be low.

 

$65M IL + $17M Sale= 82M

 

Then add...

4.2 Turner

2.0 Joely

.74 Hosmer

.14 Reyes

.03 Gutierres

.02 Jacques

 

But Yoshida's money for this year isn't quite dead yet. I think that's where the difference is.

[moonslav59]

But Yoshida's money for this year isn't quite dead yet. I think that's where the difference is.

 

True.

 

It's dead, right now, but yes, not for the full season. Same with Whitlock, Hendriks and maybe someone comes back earlier than expected.

[Old Red]

But Yoshida's money for this year isn't quite dead yet. I think that's where the difference is.

 

There was some who said the NOshida money was pretty much dead before he got hurt.

[Bellhorn04]

There was some who said the NOshida money was pretty much dead before he got hurt.

 

I can't imagine who.

[dgalehouse]

Yoshida turns 31 this July. He is not a kid. That may be part of the reason other teams were not very interested.

[Old Red]

I can't imagine who.

 

I was right behind you.🤫

[Nick]

I just have bad feeling about Yoshida. If he was a samurai, he'd volunteer to retire and return to play in Japan.

Yoshida-son has failed and needs to save his family honor.

[Old Red]

I just have bad feeling about Yoshida. If he was a samurai, he'd volunteer to retire and return to play in Japan.

Yoshida-son has failed and needs to save his family honor.

 

And Bloom went so hard after this guy.

[moonslav59]

I just have bad feeling about Yoshida. If he was a samurai, he'd volunteer to retire and return to play in Japan.

Yoshida-son has failed and needs to save his family honor.

 

If he retired, he'd save the Sox some money... not that they'd spend it elsewhere.

[Old Red]

If he retired, he'd save the Sox some money... not that they'd spend it elsewhere.

 

Nobody is retiring, and giving up that much money?🤭🙈🤮

[dgalehouse]

I just have bad feeling about Yoshida. If he was a samurai, he'd volunteer to retire and return to play in Japan.

Yoshida-son has failed and needs to save his family honor.

 

Yoshida may be a bit of a disappointment on the field, but he is not crazy.

[moonslav59]

Yoshida may be a bit of a disappointment on the field, but he is not crazy.

 

Nope, and no Japanese team will offer nearly what he's getting with the Sox.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And Bloom went so hard after this guy.

 

Outsmarting everyone, just like in the 2020 draft. I'm not saying Nick Yorke is a bad player, but the assumption was he was taken so high because he'd sign for less than projected first-rounders... which, in turn, allowed the Sox to draft -- and sign -- Blaze Jordan. Both guys are doing ok in Double A, so I won't post If-Onlys on current big leaguers taken after Yorke, like Westburg or Evan Carter or a few Cardinals (because they're in last again).

 

But there has to be at least a dozen pitchers taken after Yorke who are already in the majors, and some of them are pretty good. Despite all the draft book instructions, Bloom -- and his front office full of Asst. VPs -- didn't pick the best player available, but instead opted for two for the price of maybe one surer thing...

 

... but why draft pitchers, when we can just trade Yorke or Jordan for one. Someday.

[jad]

I just have bad feeling about Yoshida. If he was a samurai, he'd volunteer to retire and return to play in Japan.

Yoshida-son has failed and needs to save his family honor.

 

Yeah. .289 last year. Second best on the team. 3rd best in OPS. Total failure. I wonder what you would say if he were a good ole boy from Alabama.

[moonslav59]

Outsmarting everyone, just like in the 2020 draft. I'm not saying Nick Yorke is a bad player, but the assumption was he was taken so high because he'd sign for less than projected first-rounders... which, in turn, allowed the Sox to draft -- and sign -- Blaze Jordan. Both guys are doing ok in Double A, so I won't post If-Onlys on current big leaguers taken after Yorke, like Westburg or Evan Carter or a few Cardinals (because they're in last again).

 

But there has to be at least a dozen pitchers taken after Yorke who are already in the majors, and some of them are pretty good. Despite all the draft book instructions, Bloom -- and his front office full of Asst. VPs -- didn't pick the best player available, but instead opted for two for the price of maybe one surer thing...

 

... but why draft pitchers, when we can just trade Yorke or Jordan for one. Someday.

 

Speaking of drafting under slot players to try and cash in later, how does getting Anthony that way, look?

 

Maybe Anthony & Zanetello will work out well.