Maddie Landis

Welcome to Talk Sox!

Boston is one of the premier healthcare cities in the United States. It’s home to three medical schools. Massachusetts General is regarded as one of the best hospitals in the world. Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center aren’t far behind. Both are elite healthcare institutions in their own right. (Grey's Anatomy taught me all I need to know about medical programs.) Fenway Park sits 2.2 miles from Mass General's main campus. The Boston Red Sox have access to some of the best doctors in the world, and somehow fans can’t get a clear answer on what’s wrong with the team’s players. Why has the team’s medical staff dropped the ball multiple times in 2026? Consider the communication surrounding Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony, and Curtis Mead’s injuries. Garrett Crochet On April 29, Garrett Crochet was placed on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder inflammation. Earlier that month, the Minnesota Twins (yes, the Twins) annihilated Crochet, scoring 11 runs off of him (10 earned) across 1 ⅔ innings. Former manager Alex Cora claimed Crochet was healthy. On June 2, Crochet revealed he underwent an MRI and said he was “feeling much better than I was a couple days ago, which is positive, but ultimately just waiting to see what the imaging reveals”. Later that day, interim manager Chad Tracy told reporters that the MRI showed “a very low-grade lat strain” and said, “Crochet will be able to resume throwing as soon as he is asymptomatic.” The southpaw subsequently shut down his throwing program for two weeks. Ten days later, Crochet said he thought he was “getting close to throwing”. He continued, “I think we all, you guys included, from the information that I was receiving and relaying to you, wouldn't have expected the shoulder to keep me out as long as it has.” Roughly one week ago, Crochet said it’s up in the air whether he’ll pitch again in 2026, “It’s tough to say, I’m not going to make a claim like that… I understand why you ask the question… it’s just completely different from the original diagnosis”. He also spoke to Tim Healey of The Boston Globe and said he’s not cleared to throw and that he would need six weeks to build up before throwing again. He lamented, “What the [expletive] is the point of building up the strength now?” Roman Anthony On May 4, Roman Anthony tore the carpometacarpal (CMC) joint in his right ring finger. The injury was initially labeled as a right wrist sprain. Post-game, Tracy told reporters, “Imaging tonight was negative, but we are gonna send him back to Boston to see our hand specialist just to let him look at it and make sure… I think the whole point is to get him back with our specialist to see him and see how he is. If everything’s good, we’ll get him back here. But we’ve got to get him back there first.” Later that month, Anthony shut down his hitting program, citing discomfort in his wrist. In mid-June, he reportedly felt pain after he swung a fungo bat. Anthony was transferred to the 60-day injured list on June 28. In early July, news broke that he moved his rehab program to Fort Myers, Florida. Curtis Mead Mead abruptly left Monday’s game after being hit on the hand in his second at-bat with the Red Sox. Post-game, Tracy told reporters, “He’s sore… We’re just going to take it day to day and see how he feels coming in (Tuesday). A little sore but at least right now it looks like we dodged a bullet maybe.” Come Tuesday evening, Tommy Cassell reported that Nick Sogard was being called up from Triple-A Worcester to join the team in Sacramento. The injury is a fractured left wrist, with a recovery time between six and eight weeks depending on the severity of the injury. Alex Speier reported he flew back on Tuesday night to meet with the team’s hand specialist. The medical equipment in a ballpark isn't up to par with what you'd find at a hospital. Bone injuries, especially small ones, can be tough to spot on an X-ray and take multiple reviews by practitioners. (When I found out that I broke the growth plate in my right shoulder, the doctors had already sent me home from the hospital.) Mead might be the exception here, but that doesn't excuse Crochet's shoulder injury evolving into a lat strain or Roman Anthony's wrist injury becoming a torn CMC joint overnight. Teams get unlucky with injuries. The funny thing is that the Red Sox aren’t the unluckiest team in baseball. (Check out our sister site, North Side Baseball, if you want to see a team utterly plagued by injuries this season.) Boston ranks sixth on Baseball Prospectus’s Hurt Scale with 12 players. They went on a 15-game win streak sans Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet, the two superstars expected to lead the team to the postseason. What separates the Red Sox is a lack of transparency from the exam room to what players themselves and the public are being told. The Red Sox need to do better. Three shifting narratives demonstrate a pattern and a lack of transparency. I can’t diagnose whether it starts with the front office or the medical staff, but this is unacceptable from an organization with their resources. Something has to change if they want to maintain credibility with the media and their fans. View full article

Wilyer Abreu has reached a plane of existence previously unexplored. Since July 10, he’s posted a 1.372 OPS (4th) and an absurd .586 ISO (3rd). His hot bat helped drive the Boston Red Sox's impossible recent winning streak. Throughout his career, Abreu has been a fairly streaky player, and I held reservations about his hot start in March/April (.855 OPS). He regressed in May (.695 OPS) and June (.741 OPS), but I’m more optimistic about his recent power surge because it’s coming from meaningful adjustments at the plate. Abreu’s Achilles heel was scorching fastballs up in the zone. At 5’10”, 215 pounds, Abreu resembles a fire hydrant, and I always thought his raw power would be enough for him to catch up to these pitches. He’s recorded above-average bat speeds through his career, averaging 73.8 mph (69th percentile) in 2026 Wilyer Abreu vs High Cheese Year Pitch % SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA Whiff% 2024 11.2% .290 .263 .249 .227 48.3% 2025 12.2% .061 .198 .191 .242 36.8% 2026 12.2% .484 .244 .336 .209 22.2% This year, his numbers are especially encouraging. He’s slugging .484 and has cut his whiff rate against pitches in the upper third of the strike zone (Gameday Zones 1, 2, 3, 11, and 12) at 95+ mph. The one caveat is that his expected stats show a sharp drop-off. His actual production outpaces what his quality of contact supports, so some regression is likely for those specific pitches. That’s not ignoring his other improvements. Zooming out, his expected batting average nearly doubled from the 34th to 67th percentile, and his expected slugging percentage climbed from the 78th to 84th percentile. Abreu’s swing and batting stance haven’t changed dramatically. His swing length is almost the same (7.1 feet in 2025, 7.2 feet in 2026). He’s standing a smidge farther back in the box (30.5 inches in July) compared to last season (29.8 inches), and he’s implementing a wider stance (34.2 inches between his feet in July). The biggest change is his timing at the plate. Last year, Abreu’s intercept point averaged 3.5 inches in front of the plate. In July, his intercept point is -3.2 inches, double what it was at the start of the season. He’s allowing pitches, specifically faster ones, to travel deeper before making hard contact. He had previously attacked high-velocity pitches out front to achieve the same effect. Squared-up rate shows how a hitter maximizes their exit velocity based on their swing speed and pitch velocity. Abreu has increased his squared-up rate from 21.9% (16th percentile) to 24.6% (47th percentile). That initially doesn’t sound like a huge difference; most sluggers don’t need to optimize their quality of contact, and a hitter can be successful with a low or high squared-up rate. The metric includes swings and misses, so a guy with a high whiff rate and sheer power like Kyle Schwarber generates a 16.7% squared-up rate that grades in the 1st percentile. On the other hand, Luis Arraez, a patient hitter who rarely whiffs, records a 42% squared-up rate, the highest in the league. For Abreu, squaring up the ball consistently allows him to convert his improved timing into contact quality. Hitters want to connect with the ball in front of the plate to increase their launch angle. Abreu’s still making contact there, just not as far out as he previously was. A larger share of his hard-hit balls now come at or past the plate than they did a year ago, which in theory should work against him. Except, it hasn’t. The sweet spot range spans from 8 to 32 degrees. Balls hit within this window yield higher averages, slugging percentages, and weighted on base averages. Abreu’s launch angle sweet spot rate has catapulted from 31.9% (19th percentile) to 36.6% (75th percentile). The GIF below shows his 2025 and 2026 launch angle spray charts, courtesy of Statcast. You can see his hits this year spike between 10 and 20 degrees, the optimal window for hitting line drives. Abreu’s adjustments have been gradual year-to-year. Last year, he started to lay off breaking balls. This year, he’s improved his timing, allowing him to do damage on high-velocity pitches. He’s also gotten better hitting lefties, albeit at the expense of hitting righties. The fun thing is that this evolution isn't complete yet; I still don’t think he’s a finished product, and there’s a ton of upside at the plate going forward. View full article

Bon matin! Since @Alex Mayes is away over the weekend, I’m posting the weekly podcast question thread. Drop ‘em below! We’re recording a little later this week, and the cutoff is Tuesday, July 14th at 2:00 pm CST.

No need to apologize! We welcome all types of questions. I always joke that I'm a baseball fan first, and the Red Sox just happen to be my favorite team.

Franklin AriasAnthony EyansonMarcus PhillipsHenry GodboutKyson WitherspoonJustin GonzalesJuan ValeraJake BennettMikey RomeroDorian SotoYophery RodriguezTyler UberstineYoeilin CespedesJohn HolobetzEnddy AzocarMiguel BleisJohanfran GarciaHayden MullinsConrad CasonNelly Taylor

Franklin AriasAnthony EyansonMarcus PhillipsHenry GodboutKyson WitherspoonJustin GonzalesJuan ValeraJake BennettMikey RomeroDorian SotoYophery RodriguezTyler UberstineYoeilin CespedesJohn HolobetzEnddy AzocarMiguel BleisJohanfran GarciaHayden MullinsConrad CasonNelly Taylor

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Most of your traditional baseball statistics are descriptive. They tell you what has already happened. Earned run average (ERA) shows how many runs a pitcher allows across nine innings. ERA tends to ruffle some because it fails to consider factors outside of a pitcher’s control, like team defense. A pitcher with a low ERA could be blessed with a strong defense behind him, whereas a pitcher with a high ERA might not be getting bailed out by luck or good gloves. Fielding independent pitching (FIP) was created to isolate a pitcher’s performance. It measures events that pitchers have control over — strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs — and removes outcomes outside a pitcher’s control. Expected statistics attempt to measure what “should” have happened. Anything with an “x” before it is an expected stat. xERA converts xwOBA to the ERA scale. xwOBA factors how much contact (hits, strikeouts, walks, and hit-by-pitches) and the quality of contact (launch angle, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate) to determine what a player’s wOBA should’ve been. xFIP uses the same equation as FIP, but swaps out the actual number of home runs allowed for the number of fly balls multiplied by the league average home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Expected statistics are not predictive by any means, but including them in our analysis helps us paint a clearer picture of how effective a pitcher was at preventing runs, separate from what happened around them. Among left-handed relievers, the Red Sox have posted a 2.01 ERA, the lowest in the majors. Their 3.38 FIP ranks tenth. Thanks to their strong defense, more balls in play are being converted to outs than expected. Willson Contreras has been phenomenal at first (3 DRS), and Caleb Durbin is one of the best defensive third basemen in the American League. .batable { border-collapse: collapse; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; width: 100%; } .batable th { background-color: #0d2b5e !important; color: #fff !important; text-align: left; padding: 10px 14px; font-weight: 700; border: 1px solid #000; } .batable td { padding: 9px 14px; border: 1px solid #000; color: #000; } .batable col:first-child { width: 160px; } Player IP K-BB% ERA xERA FIP xFIP Aroldis Chapman 17.2 23.5% 0.51 3.09 1.82 2.94 Jovani Morán 26.2 15.5% 2.03 2.69 3.89 4.17 Tyler Samaniego 17.1 8.3% 1.04 4.89 3.87 4.42 Danny Coulombe 10.0 2.20% 7.20 4.54 5.06 5.46 Boston’s lefty relievers' -1.35 ERA-xERA differential is the lowest in baseball, meaning their ERA is outpacing their expected ERA (3.38) by a considerable margin. Looking ahead, there’s bound to be some regression for the group. Aroldis Chapman (-2.58) and Tyler Samaniego (-3.85) hold the two highest ERA-xERA differentials. Last year, Chapman outperformed his expected stats, and unlike Samaniego, he’s posted the 7th highest strikeout-minus-walk rate in the American League this year. I’m more concerned about Chapman’s drop in velocity, which has been a glaring issue since Opening Day. Jovani Morán has looked sharp, though I feel bad that he’s being charged for runs as the sacrificial lamb opener during Brayan Bello’s starts. Danny Coulombe dealt with an injury (cervical spasms) earlier this year. His 2.20% K-BB% is concerning, and he hasn’t shown an ability to strike guys out or induce ground balls. The team’s minus -0.59 FIP-xFIP differential isn’t as substantial, and the team’s defense has been one of the bright spots in an otherwise not-so-great season. I just threw a ton of numbers at you. (I can’t help it; I’m a mathlete!) What does this all mean? So far, the Red Sox’s left-handed relievers have been outperforming, and they’re bound for some regression. How much is the real question. Expected stats are fun, but no single equation should carry all the weight in an analysis. Despite Trevor Story’s injury, the team’s infield defense is stronger without him, and I think that it will hold up better than expected. Sox fans have witnessed a revolving door of relievers toss in games, but among the qualified players, lefties only account for three of the seven pitchers, and Justin Slaten’s return bolsters the bullpen. Even if one of the lefties regresses, he should help them pick up the slack. View full article

In theory, speed is a means to manufacture runs. Speed puts pressure on the opposing defense, stretches singles into doubles, and helps runners steal bases. The implication is that you have to get on base to take advantage of speed, which the 2026 Boston Red Sox haven’t been doing. Despite a paltry .313 OBP (23rd), they lead the American League in baserunning runs (5). Baseball is a unique sport for many reasons, one of them being that the defense controls the ball. Because of this, it’s harder to quantify speed’s offensive value. Baserunning outcomes depend on a myriad of context-based factors, like the runner’s sprint speed, their instincts, which base they’re on, their ability to make decisions under pressure, not to mention the opposing defense and where the ball was hit. You can see where things start to get messy. Hitting and pitching are easier to quantify because they can be isolated. A hitter's outcomes can be grouped into their contact quality and plate discipline. FIP isolates fielding from pitching by honing in on events pitchers directly control (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs). Sprint speed is a metric runners own, but by itself, it doesn’t tell you much (not unlike Craig Breslow’s press conferences). The Red Sox’s average sprint speed clocks at 27.6 feet per second, placing them at fifth overall, but they’ve posted a 71.43% stolen base percentage, ranked 19th. At some point, their steal attempts start costing more runs than they create. For a team that’s scored an eye-popping five runs in the past week, the Red Sox can’t afford to be careless on the basepaths. Overall, a stolen base’s value is marginal. They’re exciting to see, but I equate them to eating Taco Bell. It’s initially exciting and releases some endorphins, but doesn’t reap many benefits in the long run. Timing the pitcher’s release and getting a good jump are important factors that go into basestealing. Neither can be quantified. Slow-moving players like Josh Naylor rack up stolen bases because they have good baserunning instincts. On the other hand, you have speedier guys like Ceddanne Rafaela (28.7 ft/s, 90th percentile) posting a 40% stolen base rate. Marginal differences matter, especially in baseball, but a team shouldn’t be entirely dependent on speed and contact to manufacture runs. A roster built for October baseball needs to be well-rounded. Power produces runs. A home run guarantees at least one run is driven home. A stolen base might yield one. The Yankees are a lethargic team (I’d bet my cat is faster than most of the guys in their lineup), but they lead the American League with 223 runs and boast the highest ISO in the sport (.199). The Red Sox are often compared to the Brewers for their contact-and-baserunning approach. I’d say they’re the Brewers’ Waluigi. They want to emulate the Brewers, but they don’t have the plate discipline to work counts or the ability to hit the ball in the gaps. Instead, the team leans hard into bat speed and exit velocity. As such, speed alone won’t save the Red Sox. They’re stuck with who they have (unless Breslow miraculously pulls off a godfather trade for one or two sluggers). Despite their 18-24 record, the team still has a shot of reaching the playoffs, but they face an identity crisis. They’re built as a contact-first squad, but constantly swing for the fences. If the Red Sox want to succeed, they need to play to their strengths. Contact first, then wreak havoc on the basepaths. View full article

Payton TolleFranklin AriasAnthony EyansonHenry GodboutKyson WitherspoonJuan ValeraYoeilin CespedesMikey RomeroJustin GonzalesMarcus PhillipsDorian SotoMiguel BleisJake BennettJohanfran GarciaYophery RodriguezTyler UberstineNelly TaylorConrad CasonJohn HolobetzEnddy Azocar