Maddie Landis

Bon matin! Since @Alex Mayes is away over the weekend, I’m posting the weekly podcast question thread. Drop ‘em below! We’re recording a little later this week, and the cutoff is Tuesday, July 14th at 2:00 pm CST.

No need to apologize! We welcome all types of questions. I always joke that I'm a baseball fan first, and the Red Sox just happen to be my favorite team.

Franklin AriasAnthony EyansonMarcus PhillipsHenry GodboutKyson WitherspoonJustin GonzalesJuan ValeraJake BennettMikey RomeroDorian SotoYophery RodriguezTyler UberstineYoeilin CespedesJohn HolobetzEnddy AzocarMiguel BleisJohanfran GarciaHayden MullinsConrad CasonNelly Taylor

Franklin AriasAnthony EyansonMarcus PhillipsHenry GodboutKyson WitherspoonJustin GonzalesJuan ValeraJake BennettMikey RomeroDorian SotoYophery RodriguezTyler UberstineYoeilin CespedesJohn HolobetzEnddy AzocarMiguel BleisJohanfran GarciaHayden MullinsConrad CasonNelly Taylor

@mvp 78 We appreciate the support and everything you do for the website!

Most of your traditional baseball statistics are descriptive. They tell you what has already happened. Earned run average (ERA) shows how many runs a pitcher allows across nine innings. ERA tends to ruffle some because it fails to consider factors outside of a pitcher’s control, like team defense. A pitcher with a low ERA could be blessed with a strong defense behind him, whereas a pitcher with a high ERA might not be getting bailed out by luck or good gloves. Fielding independent pitching (FIP) was created to isolate a pitcher’s performance. It measures events that pitchers have control over — strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs — and removes outcomes outside a pitcher’s control. Expected statistics attempt to measure what “should” have happened. Anything with an “x” before it is an expected stat. xERA converts xwOBA to the ERA scale. xwOBA factors how much contact (hits, strikeouts, walks, and hit-by-pitches) and the quality of contact (launch angle, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate) to determine what a player’s wOBA should’ve been. xFIP uses the same equation as FIP, but swaps out the actual number of home runs allowed for the number of fly balls multiplied by the league average home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Expected statistics are not predictive by any means, but including them in our analysis helps us paint a clearer picture of how effective a pitcher was at preventing runs, separate from what happened around them. Among left-handed relievers, the Red Sox have posted a 2.01 ERA, the lowest in the majors. Their 3.38 FIP ranks tenth. Thanks to their strong defense, more balls in play are being converted to outs than expected. Willson Contreras has been phenomenal at first (3 DRS), and Caleb Durbin is one of the best defensive third basemen in the American League. .batable { border-collapse: collapse; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; width: 100%; } .batable th { background-color: #0d2b5e !important; color: #fff !important; text-align: left; padding: 10px 14px; font-weight: 700; border: 1px solid #000; } .batable td { padding: 9px 14px; border: 1px solid #000; color: #000; } .batable col:first-child { width: 160px; } Player IP K-BB% ERA xERA FIP xFIP Aroldis Chapman 17.2 23.5% 0.51 3.09 1.82 2.94 Jovani Morán 26.2 15.5% 2.03 2.69 3.89 4.17 Tyler Samaniego 17.1 8.3% 1.04 4.89 3.87 4.42 Danny Coulombe 10.0 2.20% 7.20 4.54 5.06 5.46 Boston’s lefty relievers' -1.35 ERA-xERA differential is the lowest in baseball, meaning their ERA is outpacing their expected ERA (3.38) by a considerable margin. Looking ahead, there’s bound to be some regression for the group. Aroldis Chapman (-2.58) and Tyler Samaniego (-3.85) hold the two highest ERA-xERA differentials. Last year, Chapman outperformed his expected stats, and unlike Samaniego, he’s posted the 7th highest strikeout-minus-walk rate in the American League this year. I’m more concerned about Chapman’s drop in velocity, which has been a glaring issue since Opening Day. Jovani Morán has looked sharp, though I feel bad that he’s being charged for runs as the sacrificial lamb opener during Brayan Bello’s starts. Danny Coulombe dealt with an injury (cervical spasms) earlier this year. His 2.20% K-BB% is concerning, and he hasn’t shown an ability to strike guys out or induce ground balls. The team’s minus -0.59 FIP-xFIP differential isn’t as substantial, and the team’s defense has been one of the bright spots in an otherwise not-so-great season. I just threw a ton of numbers at you. (I can’t help it; I’m a mathlete!) What does this all mean? So far, the Red Sox’s left-handed relievers have been outperforming, and they’re bound for some regression. How much is the real question. Expected stats are fun, but no single equation should carry all the weight in an analysis. Despite Trevor Story’s injury, the team’s infield defense is stronger without him, and I think that it will hold up better than expected. Sox fans have witnessed a revolving door of relievers toss in games, but among the qualified players, lefties only account for three of the seven pitchers, and Justin Slaten’s return bolsters the bullpen. Even if one of the lefties regresses, he should help them pick up the slack. View full article

In theory, speed is a means to manufacture runs. Speed puts pressure on the opposing defense, stretches singles into doubles, and helps runners steal bases. The implication is that you have to get on base to take advantage of speed, which the 2026 Boston Red Sox haven’t been doing. Despite a paltry .313 OBP (23rd), they lead the American League in baserunning runs (5). Baseball is a unique sport for many reasons, one of them being that the defense controls the ball. Because of this, it’s harder to quantify speed’s offensive value. Baserunning outcomes depend on a myriad of context-based factors, like the runner’s sprint speed, their instincts, which base they’re on, their ability to make decisions under pressure, not to mention the opposing defense and where the ball was hit. You can see where things start to get messy. Hitting and pitching are easier to quantify because they can be isolated. A hitter's outcomes can be grouped into their contact quality and plate discipline. FIP isolates fielding from pitching by honing in on events pitchers directly control (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs). Sprint speed is a metric runners own, but by itself, it doesn’t tell you much (not unlike Craig Breslow’s press conferences). The Red Sox’s average sprint speed clocks at 27.6 feet per second, placing them at fifth overall, but they’ve posted a 71.43% stolen base percentage, ranked 19th. At some point, their steal attempts start costing more runs than they create. For a team that’s scored an eye-popping five runs in the past week, the Red Sox can’t afford to be careless on the basepaths. Overall, a stolen base’s value is marginal. They’re exciting to see, but I equate them to eating Taco Bell. It’s initially exciting and releases some endorphins, but doesn’t reap many benefits in the long run. Timing the pitcher’s release and getting a good jump are important factors that go into basestealing. Neither can be quantified. Slow-moving players like Josh Naylor rack up stolen bases because they have good baserunning instincts. On the other hand, you have speedier guys like Ceddanne Rafaela (28.7 ft/s, 90th percentile) posting a 40% stolen base rate. Marginal differences matter, especially in baseball, but a team shouldn’t be entirely dependent on speed and contact to manufacture runs. A roster built for October baseball needs to be well-rounded. Power produces runs. A home run guarantees at least one run is driven home. A stolen base might yield one. The Yankees are a lethargic team (I’d bet my cat is faster than most of the guys in their lineup), but they lead the American League with 223 runs and boast the highest ISO in the sport (.199). The Red Sox are often compared to the Brewers for their contact-and-baserunning approach. I’d say they’re the Brewers’ Waluigi. They want to emulate the Brewers, but they don’t have the plate discipline to work counts or the ability to hit the ball in the gaps. Instead, the team leans hard into bat speed and exit velocity. As such, speed alone won’t save the Red Sox. They’re stuck with who they have (unless Breslow miraculously pulls off a godfather trade for one or two sluggers). Despite their 18-24 record, the team still has a shot of reaching the playoffs, but they face an identity crisis. They’re built as a contact-first squad, but constantly swing for the fences. If the Red Sox want to succeed, they need to play to their strengths. Contact first, then wreak havoc on the basepaths. View full article

Payton TolleFranklin AriasAnthony EyansonHenry GodboutKyson WitherspoonJuan ValeraYoeilin CespedesMikey RomeroJustin GonzalesMarcus PhillipsDorian SotoMiguel BleisJake BennettJohanfran GarciaYophery RodriguezTyler UberstineNelly TaylorConrad CasonJohn HolobetzEnddy Azocar

@drewski6 Thank you! 🙂 That grill looks awesome. You can do a lot with its temperature range. I got a Weber Genesis. I had a Spirit, but it flipped over and broke during a bad storm last fall. Bregman was reportedly a huge advocate for the group of fired coaches. It makes you wonder if Breslow’s refusal to add the NTC was deliberate.

My Saturday morning started great. I woke up early, biked to the gym, and bought a new grill at my local hardware store. It felt like a productive start to the day, yet something felt off. My intuition proved right. After the Boston Red Sox pounded the Orioles in a 17-1 win, Craig Breslow abruptly fired manager Alex Cora and five members of their coaching staff. Look, it was obvious the Red Sox needed a semblance of change. They’ve gotten off to one of the worst starts in franchise history. The offense is tepid and can’t hit fastballs if their lives depended on it. But it’s atypical to see almost the entire team’s coaching staff let go early in the season. At the very least, my money was on just hitting coach Pete Fatse getting sacked. Baseball is full of bizarre storylines. (In recent years, the recurring theme for the Red Sox is petty drama.) Alas, some teams have parted ways with their managers and still reached the playoffs. Let’s take a look at them. In-Season Manager Changes Followed by a Playoff Run Year Team Manager Date Fired Replacement Record Rest of the Season Postseason Result 2022 TOR Charlie Montoyo 7/13/22 John Schneider 46-42 45-29 Lost in WC (SEA) 2022 PHL Joe Girardi 6/3/22 Rob Thomson 22-29 65-46 Lost in the WS (HOU) 2009 COL Clint Hurdle 5/29/09 Jim Tracy 18-28 74-42 Lost in NLDS (PHI) 2008 MIL Ned Yost 9/15/08 Dale Sveum 83-67 7-5 Lost in NLDS (PHI) 2022 Toronto Blue Jays On July 13, 2022, the Blue Jays let go of Charlie Montoyo and handed the keys to bench coach John Schneider for the interim. Overall, the team held a 46-42 record and the third wild-card berth, but they started July with a lackluster 3-9 record. Toronto finished the season with a 45-29 record (ranked third in the American League) and held onto its wild-card berth, snapping a six-year postseason drought. Schneider was promoted to full-time manager in October 2022. 2022 Philadelphia Phillies On June 3, 2022, the Phillies fired Joe Girardi. At the time, things looked dire for the Phillies. They were third in the National League East with a 22-29 record and 5.5 games behind a wild-card berth. Led by former bench coach Rob Thomson, the team finished the season with an 87-75 record (third in their division). They clinched the final NL wild-card spot and danced to their first World Series appearance since 2009. Like Schneider, Thomson took over as full-time manager in October. 2009 Colorado Rockies On May 29, 2009, the Rockies parted ways with Clint Hurdle. Colorado was 14.5 games behind the Dodgers with an 18-28 record (fifth in the National League West). Hurdle’s replacement was bench coach Jim Tracy, the father of the Red Sox’s new skipper, Chad Tracy. The senior Tracy pulled the Rockies out of the basement. They ended the season with a 92-70 record, ranked second in their division. To this day, the Rockies’ 2009 record stands as the best in the franchise’s 33-year history. The team reached the National League Division Series. Come November, Tracy was named full-time manager. 2008 Brewers On September 15, 2008, the Brewers fired Ned Yost. The team held an 83-67 record and were tied with the Phillies for the wild-card, which sounds fine, except they entered September with a 5.5-game lead over the Phillies and were 3-11 in the first two weeks. Third base coach Dale Sveum managed the team for the remaining 12 games and the postseason. They lost to the Phillies (who went on to win the World Series) in the National League Division Series. Sveum’s managerial stint with the Brewers was short, but he’d later manage the Cubs. Could the Red Sox sneak into the postseason this year? History says so, but there’s a fundamental difference in the aforementioned teams and the 2026 Red Sox. Managers do their best with the rosters that the front office hands them. The 2022 Blue Jays had four All-Stars. The 2022 Phillies had Bryce Harper, fresh off his 2021 MVP season. J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola were still in their prime. The 2009 Rockies had Troy Tulowitzki just reaching his peak and a future Hall of Famer in Todd Helton. The 2008 Brewers had two All-Stars and a core of burgeoning young talent. The 2026 Red Sox will be lucky to have more than one player represent the team at the All-Star Game in Philadelphia. Cora wasn’t given the optimal roster to manage. President of Baseball Operations Craig Breslow repeatedly echoed that the team needed a power bat, but neglected to sign any marquee free agents, instead trading for 33-year-old veteran Willson Contreras. To Contreras’ credit, he’s done well in Boston, but more often than not, there’s nobody on base when he goes deep. Despite the team’s surplus of outfielders, none of them were traded in the offseason, leaving Cora to juggle all five. The bullpen was the red-headed stepchild of the offseason. Breslow traded workhorse reliever Brennan Bernardino for Braiden Ward, a speedy outfielder, who profiled as redundant given that the team already had utility player Nate Eaton stashed away in Worcester. Cora himself wasn’t perfect. Like most people, he falls into the ambiguous grey area. At his worst, he played favorites, his bullpen usage was questionable, he was a slave to the platoon, players seemed to lack fundamentals, the defense committed egregious errors, and runners looked lost on the basepaths. I’m saying this as a huge Cora fan. Astute leaders don’t surround themselves with yes-men. They recognize the importance of healthy tension and constructive criticism. They understand there isn’t one way to solve a problem. They learn from their mistakes. Breslow hasn’t demonstrated any of these qualities. In the wake of the Rafael Devers trade last June, Breslow acknowledged, “We want people to feel valued. We want people to feel like the work that they’re doing matters, that their voices are heard. And I think there’s an opportunity for me to do a better job making sure that everybody in this organization knows that.” Sunday morning, after Cora was fired, Breslow addressed the clubhouse in a brief “five or six” minute meeting. Players didn’t have the chance to, in Breslow’s words, “have their voices heard.” Reliever Garrett Whitlock told reporters, “They made it very clear that we get paid to play baseball, and we need to just focus on playing baseball.” That same morning, Breslow and President Sam Kennedy held a press conference where Breslow emphasized the human element of the game: “On a human level, on a personal level, it's incredibly difficult. These are people that you build close relationships over multiple years. They are really, really good people, good fathers, good husbands. You know, I think we tend to think about only the professional aspect of this, but you know, the human side makes it just unbelievably difficult. You know, you wrestle with these things. But when you get to the point where you feel like this is the best decision for the organization and the best decision for the players, no matter how difficult you have to do it.” For someone with a Mensa-level EQ, Breslow has a strange way of showing that he’s attuned to the human side of baseball operations. The Red Sox reportedly didn’t offer Alex Bregman a full no-trade clause – which was a reasonable ask – considering the organization’s history. Since 2018, the Red Sox front office has been a revolving door, but I took comfort in knowing that the team had one of the best managers. Cora had a feel for the game, something Breslow seems to lack despite spending 12 years in the majors. Breslow seemingly cares more about his computer models being correct than what’s actually unfolding on the field. He doesn’t recognize what leadership looks like. Why? Because it can’t be quantified. George Washington took the green French officer, Marquis de Lafayette, under his wing during the Revolutionary War. Plato tutored Aristotle. Gandalf guided Bilbo and Frodo through Middle Earth. David Ortiz mentored Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. The Red Sox could’ve had their leader in Bregman, Kyle Schwarber, or Pete Alonso. Maybe Breslow’s model advised him not to overpay them. Roman Anthony is only 22 years old, and he’s expected to carry the weight of the team on his back and address the media when veteran players refuse to. I know it’s early, and there’s a lot of baseball to be played, but the odds aren’t in the Red Sox’s favor. PECOTA projects that the team has a 15.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.0% chance of winning the division. Teams that pulled off an in-season managerial change had front offices that constructed rosters that were worth saving. Right now, the Red Sox are a sinking ship. body { font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin: 20px; } table { border-collapse: collapse; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; } th, td { border: 1px solid #000; padding: 8px 12px; white-space: nowrap; vertical-align: middle; } thead th { background-color: #001f3f; color: #ffffff; font-weight: bold; } .title { text-align: center; } /* Centered columns: Year, Team */ .center { text-align: center; } /* Left-aligned columns: Manager, Date Fired, Replacement, Record, Rest of the Season, Postseason Result */ .left { text-align: left; } /* Widths */ .w-narrow { width: 60px; } .w-rest { width: 70px; white-space: normal; } .w-wide { width: 140px; } View full article

Story’s offensive stats were inflated by the Coors elevation. From 2016-2021, Story held a 124 wRC+ at home versus a 99 wRC+ on the road. In just his second major league season (2017), he led all of baseball in strikeouts (191). As a member of the Red Sox (2022-present), he’s posted an 83 wRC+ at Fenway versus a 79 wRC+ on the road. Defensively, he's never won a GG and was nominated only once in 2019.

On Wednesday, MLB notified teams of their bonus pool and pick values for the 2026 Draft. The Red Sox rank 23rd with a total of $8,219,000 across nine picks. Their first round selection (20th overall) accounts for more than half of that value ($4,373,900). Round Pick Slot Value 1 20 $4,373,900 CB-B 67 $1,317,300 3 96 $815,700 5 156 $454,100 6 185 $352,900 7 214 $278,700 8 244 $227,200 9 274 $205,400 10 304 $194,000 As a brief refresher, two of the Red Sox’s offseason moves impacted their spending power. The Red Sox received the 67th pick in the supplemental second round (CB-B) in the Caleb Durbin and Kyle Harrison trade. After signing Ranger Suarez five-year, $150 million contract, they lost their second and fifth picks and $1 million from their international bonus pool. The 2026 MLB Draft is scheduled for July 11 to 13. View full rumor