A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

Romy?

 

Westbrook and Valdez have played some 3B in the minors, too.

 

It would not be good having Romy or Westbrook at 3B, but both should hit better than Dalbec.

[mvp 78]

Romy?

 

29.2 MLB innings and 87 MiLB innings does not make a quality backup plan for Raffy in case of injury.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec stays!

[mvp 78]

Defense. He's hitting better, recently.

 

The tougher decisions are vs LHPs, but yes, if you go just by the batting splits, Ref and O"Neill should play over Rafaela vs RHPs.

 

Someday, Ref might come back down to earth v RHPs, but I do think he should play, if and until he does.

 

Ref LF/DH

O'Neilll RF/DH

Rafaela CF

Duran LF/CF

Abreu LF/RF

[Bellhorn04]

Now if some obliging LH pitchers could hang a few breaking pitches to Bobby, he might even get his OPS over .600...well .500 at least.

[Bellhorn04]

Ref LF/DH

O'Neilll RF/DH

Rafaela CF

Duran LF/CF

Abreu LF/RF

 

Child's play for Cora.

[mvp 78]

Westbrook and Valdez have played some 3B in the minors, too.

 

It would not be good having Romy or Westbrook at 3B, but both should hit better than Dalbec.

 

Good point. Valdez has over 1,000 innings at 3B vs Romy's barely 100 professional innings. I'd still not play either at 3B.

[mvp 78]

Now if some obliging LH pitchers could hang a few breaking pitches to Bobby, he might even get his OPS over .600...well .500 at least.

 

He needs to borrow Cutter Coffey's bat.

[mvp 78]

Child's play for Cora.

 

He's apparently taking next year off, so he can use all his brainpower now.

[notin]

29.2 MLB innings and 87 MiLB innings does not make a quality backup plan for Raffy in case of injury.

 

He flat out catches stuff better than Dalbec. And has done so at multiple positions, including SS, which is more difficult than 3b. Also, he hits better, too.

[notin]

Dalbec stays!

 

So Grissom has a 78 OPS+ and you’ve already labeled him a bust, while in the same timeframe Dalbec has a 66 OPS+ and struck out in 38% of his plate appearances (as opposed to Grissom’s 21%), and yet you’re telling me Dalbec is the keeper?!?!

[notin]

Now if some obliging LH pitchers could hang a few breaking pitches to Bobby, he might even get his OPS over .600...well .500 at least.

 

Absolutely.

 

That’s really what’s holding Dalbec back - those opposing pitchers. I tell you, sometimes I think they actually want him to fail at the plate…

[Bellhorn04]

So Grissom has a 78 OPS+ and you’ve already labeled him a bust, while in the same timeframe Dalbec has a 66 OPS+ and struck out in 38% of his plate appearances (as opposed to Grissom’s 21%), and yet you’re telling me Dalbec is the keeper?!?!

 

I didn't say Dalbec isn't a bust. He is. And I didn't say anything about DFA'ing Grissom.

 

Nuances, man, nuances.

[moonslav59]

Good point. Valdez has over 1,000 innings at 3B vs Romy's barely 100 professional innings. I'd still not play either at 3B.

 

Now, compare them to Bobby Dee at 3B.

 

Is Bobby Dee that much better that he deserves his 99th life?

[moonslav59]

Child's play for Cora.

 

Now, add a big RHB that plays OF/DH or corner IF/DH. It doesn't work.

 

I don't think C/DH works either, as McGuire has done an awesome job with our staff, so that leaves middle IF big RHB.

 

Name names.

 

Do we get a rental SS/2B/DH type at the deadline?

[Hugh2]

With the big RHB we need?

 

Wong hits RHPs better than LHPs, so you are looking to add a better platoon catcher?.

 

Do you have someone in mind?

 

Also, I don't know anyone who platoons catchers based on L-R splits.

 

I'm not advocating platooning them off of splits, just Teel is mashing. If both are still hitting one can DH some as well.

 

Also, not that it changes my opinion, but I don't necessarily expect Wongs reverse splits to conitnue for his whole career.

[Maxbialystock]

I didn't say Dalbec isn't a bust. He is. And I didn't say anything about DFA'ing Grissom.

 

Nuances, man, nuances.

 

Definitely have to keep Grissom because he cost a king's ransom. To get him the Sox not only gave away Sale, who is now the Braves' ace, but are also paying $17M of his salary.

[Hugh2]

His BABIP last season was 340 with a 33% k rate. If he maintained a 340 BABIP with a 18% k rate, he'd still have really good numbers.

 

If he maintined, who says he can maintain that?

 

If he's still hitting crazy good at the end of the year it will be because he starts barreling up the ball and hitting it harder. If he does not, his numbers will take a big step back.

 

Hope to be wrong, but If we were placing bets here I'd be betting on Wongs numbers diving. Still see a bit of a clutch player in him.

[Hugh2]

Definitely have to keep Grissom because he cost a king's ransom. To get him the Sox not only gave away Sale, who is now the Braves' ace, but are also paying $17M of his salary.

 

Grissom is 6 years younger than Dalbec too, and has never K'd like him, they are not the same. Not when it comes to DFA'ing or waiting for a guy to develop.

[vegasbob]

The point was benching Yoshida for a big RHB. When Abreu returns, we already have Ref & O'Neill with no position to play but DH and back-up OF, so yes, I took the vegasbob point as such.

 

I should have made it clearer--the real point is how ( & when) do you call the Yoshida signing on par with some of the bad deals of the last 15 years. Would it be too painful to JH to just pay him off and give him away ? Yoshi's thumb pain will be chronic for the rest of the season, maybe like O'Neill's knee. It would not be inconceivable to basically bench Yoshi , use only as a PH and try to move him over the winter.

 

Every comment on O'Neill contains the phrase ( "If healthy") . When Abreu returns shortly, He will be put back in RF and may take a while to get back to MLB speed . He and Ref will likely platoon vs LH'ers. A RHB that can play SS and 2B or 1B would not be a wasted move near the deadline. Casas may or may not get fully over his injury without a recurrence or an altered swing .

[notin]

I didn't say Dalbec isn't a bust. He is. And I didn't say anything about DFA'ing Grissom.

 

Nuances, man, nuances.

 

Who said you want Grissom DFAd? You added that in to duck the question. Well played, but not unnoticed…

[moonslav59]

I'm not advocating platooning them off of splits, just Teel is mashing. If both are still hitting one can DH some as well.

 

Also, not that it changes my opinion, but I don't necessarily expect Wongs reverse splits to conitnue for his whole career.

 

I don't see Teel as a 2024 option. He may not be added to the 40 until mid 2025, at the earliest.

McGuire is wonderful with our staff.

Wong has had reverse splits for 3 straight years and by a lot, until this year's near even splits.

 

In the minors:

2019:.829/.738 reverse splits

2021:.730/.733 almost identical

2022:.798/.967 A big non reverse split

 

I'm not so sure he normalizes his splits, but with catchers, you never see a L-R platoon that I know of, anyway.

 

[illinoisredsox]

He flat out catches stuff better than Dalbec. And has done so at multiple positions, including SS, which is more difficult than 3b. Also, he hits better, too.

 

You’ve decided all that based on his whopping 18 games played this year? Or his success over his long 104 game major league career?

 

I will give you he can catch the ball better than Dalbec. He probably hits better than Dalbec, though it would be interesting to compare their numbers through the same number of games and PAs in their careers; Dalbec looked halfway decent early on. What Romy apparently can’t do is stay on the field. He’s been on the DL for 3/4 of this season so far. He was on the DL for 3/4 of 2023 as well. A back up is of no use if he’s not available, and one thing you can say about Dalbec is he always seems to be available to play.

 

I’m not saying Dalbec’s the guy, but counting on Gonzalez as a back up doesn’t seem wise either given his history. That Davis guy you mentioned earlier seems somewhat intriguing, but could he be Cooper II?

Edited June 18, 2024 by illinoisredsox

[moonslav59]

I should have made it clearer--the real point is how ( & when) do you call the Yoshida signing on par with some of the bad deals of the last 15 years. Would it be too painful to JH to just pay him off and give him away ? Yoshi's thumb pain will be chronic for the rest of the season, maybe like O'Neill's knee. It would not be inconceivable to basically bench Yoshi , use only as a PH and try to move him over the winter.

 

Every comment on O'Neill contains the phrase ( "If healthy") . When Abreu returns shortly, He will be put back in RF and may take a while to get back to MLB speed . He and Ref will likely platoon vs LH'ers. A RHB that can play SS and 2B or 1B would not be a wasted move near the deadline. Casas may or may not get fully over his injury without a recurrence or an altered swing .

 

I was one of the few saying Yoshida deserved a longer look, and did okay for much of 2023. His ending really hurt his numbers, but I'm done with him.

 

It's not just about his missing time and sucking much of the time: it's more about other batters needing to play, instead of him.

 

If he stays on the 26, Cora will play him more than I want to see.

 

Trade him and 80% of his salary to a west coast team.

 

I agree with you on Yoshi. I just don't think adding a RHB who is a DH/OF, DH/Croner IF or DH/C fits into the scheme.

 

Find a middle IF'er with a big RHB and let me know.

 

As far as O'Neill's health is concerned, it is an issue, but even without him, we have Ref to DH v RHPs and the hot DSmith vs RHPs.

 

O'Neil is 7th on the team in Games started, just 1 game behind 6th (DHam) and 7 behind Abreu and Wong. He may catch Abreu, soon.

 

Only Duran and Rafaela have started more than 56 games.

Edited June 18, 2024 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

I don't see Teel as a 2024 option. He may not be added to the 40 until mid 2025, at the earliest.

McGuire is wonderful with our staff.

Wong has had reverse splits for 3 straight years and by a lot, until this year's near even splits.

 

In the minors:

2019:.829/.738 reverse splits

2021:.730/.733 almost identical

2022:.798/.967 A big non reverse split

 

I'm not so sure he normalizes his splits, but with catchers, you never see a L-R platoon that I know of, anyway.

 

 

Teel is mashing in AA, probably should be promoted within a month. How long do you think they will keep him at AAA for?

 

He's going to be ready sooner, rather than later.

[moonslav59]

Teel is mashing in AA, probably should be promoted within a month. How long do you think they will keep him at AAA for?

 

He's going to be ready sooner, rather than later.

 

It's almost always longer than I think, so I'm trying to be realistic.

 

Being a catcher is not easy. I'm not sure how they view his defensive readiness, and I'm not sure we want to take our improved pitching staff out of their comfort zone with McGuire and Wong.

 

Players not needing to be on the 40, often get left in AAA longer, as teams want to keep as many MLB ready options in the system, as possible.

 

I think Teel, Mayer and Anthony all might be ML ready, very soon, as in 2024 or maybe even now. I doubt Sox brass thinks like me and you. I think the fact that none have been promoted to AAA, yet, despite not being blocked is telling.

 

I think they deal with the 26 and 40 man roster through Rule 5 and roster changes, this winter, and then add one of the big 3 to the 40, only when needed in 2025. That may or may not happen to any or all of the big 3.

[Tedballgame]

Red Sox top pitching prospect, Luis Perales, to undergo TJ surgery. Out until 2026 most likely.

[Hugh2]

It's almost always longer than I think, so I'm trying to be realistic.

 

Being a catcher is not easy. I'm not sure how they view his defensive readiness, and I'm not sure we want to take our improved pitching staff out of their comfort zone with McGuire and Wong.

 

Players not needing to be on the 40, often get left in AAA longer, as teams want to keep as many MLB ready options in the system, as possible.

 

I think Teel, Mayer and Anthony all might be ML ready, very soon, as in 2024 or maybe even now. I doubt Sox brass thinks like me and you. I think the fact that none have been promoted to AAA, yet, despite not being blocked is telling.

 

I think they deal with the 26 and 40 man roster through Rule 5 and roster changes, this winter, and then add one of the big 3 to the 40, only when needed in 2025. That may or may not happen to any or all of the big 3.

 

All good points, and you'er probably right, I'm probably pushing on Teel but I do disagree that the "despite not being blocked is telling" comment. It's not like they've been in AA for a long time.

 

Take a guy like Mookie Betts as a prime example of someone who absolutely demolised the minors and pushed his way up to the majors. He got 257 PA's before he got promoted from AA, even a guy being rushed or pushing his way up is going to get at least 250 PA's at a level. Teel is at 230, he could easily still be mashing his way up AND afford to be kept in AA for another month.

 

FTR Mayer is at 258 PA's

Anthony is at 211 PA's

 

 

 

Also the big 3 by OPS by Month

 

Anthony: .638/.868/1.416

Mayer: .820/.845/.891

Teel: .678/1.003/.990

 

 

All three are building up towards a promotion, and it can probably wait a month or two before I would question why they're not being moved up yet.

[sk7326]

It's almost always longer than I think, so I'm trying to be realistic.

 

Being a catcher is not easy. I'm not sure how they view his defensive readiness, and I'm not sure we want to take our improved pitching staff out of their comfort zone with McGuire and Wong.

 

Players not needing to be on the 40, often get left in AAA longer, as teams want to keep as many MLB ready options in the system, as possible.

 

I think Teel, Mayer and Anthony all might be ML ready, very soon, as in 2024 or maybe even now. I doubt Sox brass thinks like me and you. I think the fact that none have been promoted to AAA, yet, despite not being blocked is telling.

 

I think they deal with the 26 and 40 man roster through Rule 5 and roster changes, this winter, and then add one of the big 3 to the 40, only when needed in 2025. That may or may not happen to any or all of the big 3.

 

I don't think there is a rush per se - particularly with Mayer who just needs to complete a healthy season.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox top pitching prospect, Luis Perales, to undergo TJ surgery. Out until 2026 most likely.

 

Its got to the point where I'm not surprised, anymore.

 

Sad, but true.