A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

To be fair, the talk of DFAing Hamilton was started by me and not by someone with the knowledge about these prospects and why they were chosen.

 

I do think abloom expected something from them…

 

At the time of the trade, I felt Bloom (not others) must have seen something in one or both, or the trade made no to little sense.

 

(That was the whole head-scratcher rambling thread.)

 

I'm happy some positive results from that trade are occuring. I hope DHam can continue at even just .725-.750 ball. (His D necessitates good batting and baserunning.)

[moonslav59]

It’s not. A single doesn’t have the same impact on existing base runners. And the stolen base is an entirely separate play…

 

It is a stat that is not really included in anything, except by itself and in things like WAR.

 

SBs can certainly be big game changers.

[notin]

I assumed if either would have an impact, it would be Binelas. But Hamilton was added to the 40 man right away…

[mvp 78]

At the time of the trade, I felt Bloom (not others) must have seen something in one or both, or the trade made no to little sense.

 

(That was the whole head-scratcher rambling thread.)

 

I'm happy some positive results from that trade are occuring. I hope DHam can continue at even just .725-.750 ball. (His D necessitates good batting and baserunning.)

 

Well, whatever he saw in Binelas was a mirage.

[Nick]

SB does not benefit on'e OBP. Extra base hits impact slugging % and indirectly one's OPS.

 

One stat used more than anything else is the OPS and SB less CS has no part in it. That was my point.

[Hugh2]

Well, whatever he saw in Binelas was a mirage.

 

Binelas was supposed to be the better prospect in the trade as well

[mvp 78]

I think we can all agree, our depth and depth to the depth has outperformed everyone's expectations.

 

Houck was apparently the starter added to the rotation to take Gio's place.

Criswell was the back-up to the back-up, taking Whitlock's place.

Martin is on the IL, Wink was demoted and ICampbell struggled out of the gate, yet our pen is top 4 in fWAR.

 

While our 1B depth has been a joke, Smith has been on fire since May 31st.

Romy helped stop the bleeding at SS, then DHam and EValdez, along with Westbrook and some Rafaela at SS have turned the MI into an okay place. (Story and Grissom have done nothing.)

Our OF has been awesome, including the "depth" of Refsnyder & Abreu. The whole OF has a .800 OPS combined.

 

With the farm about to add even more depth, I like the foundation we are setting up.

 

Campbell did NOT struggle out of the gate. He pitched well the first few games and then got injured. He then tried to pitch through the injury.

 

First 5 appearances:

2.08 ERA

2.00 FIP

458 OPS

 

Last 2:

36.00 ERA

16.65 FIP

1743 OPS

[notin]

SB does not benefit on'e OBP. Extra base hits impact slugging % and indirectly one's OPS.

 

One stat used more than anything else is the OPS and SB less CS has no part in it. That was my point.

 

OPS is what’s done at the plate. SB is something that occurs on the base paths.

 

Long before WAR and WARP and VORP, there was a stat some sportswriter tried to get going called Total Average, which I think did the kind of thing you’re talking about.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_average

 

It’s downfall was the rather involved calculations, especially given that this was before everyone had computers on their desk, let alone inside their phones,..

[moonslav59]

Campbell did NOT struggle out of the gate. He pitched well the first few games and then got injured. He then tried to pitch through the injury.

 

First 5 appearances:

2.08 ERA

2.00 FIP

458 OPS

 

Last 2:

36.00 ERA

16.65 FIP

1743 OPS

 

I count up to April 11th as still being "out of the gate."

 

OK, he was good from game 2 to game 5.

 

He has a 12.79 ERA after his first 7 games with a 6.63 FIP.

 

He struggled.

[mvp 78]

Here is a shortened list of notable players that are Rule 5 eligible this winter:

 

Category A

 

Category A (Maybe/Likely)

Richard Fitts YES

Hunter Dobbins MAYBE

Luis Guerrero YES

Jh Garcia NO

Matthew Lugo MAYBE

Nick Yorke MAYBE

Angel Bastardo NO

 

Category B (Long shots)

Blaze Jordan NO

Nathan Hickey NO

Allan Castro NO

E Paulino MAYBE

Y Monegro NO

R Zeferjahn NO

Nick Sogard NO

C Troye NO

Category C (Probably zero chance)

Alex Binelas NO

Theo Denlinger NO

Grant Gambrell NO

Niko Kavadas NO

CJ Liu NO

Corey Rosier NO

Noah Song NO

 

Probably need to open up 4 spots on the 40 man aside from FA losses:

Romy or Westbrook DFA

Dalbec DFA

Uwasawa DFA

Winckowski trade for prospects

[mvp 78]

I count up to April 11th as still being "out of the gate."

 

OK, he was good from game 2 to game 5.

 

He has a 12.79 ERA after his first 7 games with a 6.63 FIP.

 

He struggled.

 

His first 5 games were great just as he was in Spring Training. He got injured.

[mvp 78]

Binelas was supposed to be the better prospect in the trade as well

 

Neither was very highly rated from what I remember.

[moonslav59]

His first 5 games were great just as he was in Spring Training. He got injured.

 

We are arguing over the sample size being 5 or 7 games.

 

Really?

[moonslav59]

Neither was very highly rated from what I remember.

 

That's how I remember it and why I said "Bloom must see something nobody else does."

[notin]

Probably need to open up 4 spots on the 40 man aside from FA losses:

Romy or Westbrook DFA

Dalbec DFA

Uwasawa DFA

Winckowski trade for prospects

 

Trade Winckowski? Why?

 

Get him back in that bullpen where he belongs. We could have the Double W Guys, Winky and Whit, shortening games and kicking ass…

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

The Red Sox lead the American League with 69 stolen bases.

 

Leaders:

Hamilton 18

Duran 17

Rafaela 9

Abreu 7

 

Nice.

[notin]

That's how I remember it and why I said "Bloom must see something nobody else does."

 

I think Bloom did that a lot.

 

Sometimes he was right. Other times he was probably just pretty high …

[mvp 78]

We are arguing over the sample size being 5 or 7 games.

 

Really?

 

The sample size is healthy vs injured. He started the season healthy and pitching well. That's my position.

[moonslav59]

Probably need to open up 4 spots on the 40 man aside from FA losses:

Romy or Westbrook DFA

Dalbec DFA

Uwasawa DFA

Winckowski trade for prospects

 

I think Horn and Walter are very easily replaced by a Rule 5 player, if the Sox think the prospect is worth protecting.

 

If you had to pick now, who gets protected?

 

I'd say....

 

Richard Fitts- yes

Hunter Dobbins- likely

Luis Guerrero- yes

Jh Garcia- yes, although kinda far away from the bigs

Matthew Lugo- maybe

Nick Yorke- likely

Angel Bastardo- maybe not

 

Maybe 5

[mvp 78]

Trade Winckowski? Why?

 

Get him back in that bullpen where he belongs. We could have the Double W Guys, Winky and Whit, shortening games and kicking ass…

 

Winckowski is the turd in the punchbowl that people in the org don't like. He wasn't sent to AAA because he's a horrible pitcher, it's because he refused to follow Andrew Bailey's program. Get him out of here. Bad teammate.

[mvp 78]

I think Horn and Walter are very easily replaced by a Rule 5 player, if the Sox think the prospect is worth protecting.

 

If you had to pick now, who gets protected?

 

I'd say....

 

Richard Fitts- yes

Hunter Dobbins- likely

Luis Guerrero- yes

Jh Garcia- yes, although kinda far away from the bigs

Matthew Lugo- maybe

Nick Yorke- likely

Angel Bastardo- maybe not

 

Maybe 5

 

I think Horn, Keller and Anderson are probably gone, but will be replaced by other AAAA/MLB bullpen guys (or it leaves room for a Rule 5 pick).

[moonslav59]

Winckowski is the turd in the punchbowl that people in the org don't like. He wasn't sent to AAA because he's a horrible pitcher, it's because he refused to follow Andrew Bailey's program. Get him out of here. Bad teammate.

 

He may be dealt at the deadline- likely as part of a package deal.

 

He seemed to be redeeming the early scores given on that Beni trade.

[mvp 78]

I think they like Walter enough. He's a spot starter and they keep him in AAA through 2025 at least because of his options.

[moonslav59]

I think Horn, Keller and Anderson are probably gone, but will be replaced by other AAAA/MLB bullpen guys (or it leaves room for a Rule 5 pick).

 

I counted Anderson and Keller as gone, already, since their team control ends after 2024.

[moonslav59]

I think they like Walter enough. He's a spot starter and they keep him in AAA through 2025 at least because of his options.

 

With out lack of pitching prospects that are MLB ready, he and Murphy might be kept, despite some major questions. Agreed.

[mvp 78]

If they are picking right this second:

Fitts

Dobbins

Guerrero

Yorke

[notin]

Winckowski is the turd in the punchbowl that people in the org don't like. He wasn't sent to AAA because he's a horrible pitcher, it's because he refused to follow Andrew Bailey's program. Get him out of here. Bad teammate.

 

I thought/read that was done to cover him to a starting pitcher.

 

Also, are you implying there are turds in the punch bowl that people do like?

[mvp 78]

I thought/read that was done to cover him to a starting pitcher.

 

Also, are you implying there are turds in the punch bowl that people do like?

 

Some people get freaky.

[moonslav59]

If they are picking right this second:

Fitts

Dobbins

Guerrero

Yorke

 

You must think the risk of Jh Garcia being taken is minimal.

 

Lugo seems like he'll be grabbed by someone- not that this means we should protect him.

[Hugh2]

You must think the risk of Jh Garcia being taken is minimal.

 

Lugo seems like he'll be grabbed by someone- not that this means we should protect him.

 

I think a hitter has to be closer to ready than a pitcher to be grabbed and kept. If a team really believes in a guy they might pluck that A/AA starter with a 5.00 ERA but 12K/9 and move him to the bullpen.

 

We also have to remember they will ideally need a spot for Hendricks/Story/Giolito on the 40 man next year too.