A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

All good points, and you'er probably right, I'm probably pushing on Teel but I do disagree that the "despite not being blocked is telling" comment. It's not like they've been in AA for a long time.

 

Take a guy like Mookie Betts as a prime example of someone who absolutely demolised the minors and pushed his way up to the majors. He got 257 PA's before he got promoted from AA, even a guy being rushed or pushing his way up is going to get at least 250 PA's at a level. Teel is at 230, he could easily still be mashing his way up AND afford to be kept in AA for another month.

 

FTR Mayer is at 258 PA's

Anthony is at 211 PA's

 

 

 

Also the big 3 by OPS by Month

 

Anthony: .638/.868/1.416

Mayer: .820/.845/.891

Teel: .678/1.003/.990

 

 

All three are building up towards a promotion, and it can probably wait a month or two before I would question why they're not being moved up yet.

 

I think timetables for catchers are different.

 

On D, Mayer and Anthony are already ML ready.

 

I have no idea how they view Teel on D, but I guess DH could be an option vs RHPs, at least.

 

Beating out O'Neill and Ref vs LHPs would not be easy..

[mvp 78]

Now, compare them to Bobby Dee at 3B.

 

Is Bobby Dee that much better that he deserves his 99th life?

 

They should have found a better backup 1B/3B IMO. Justin Turner hasn't been great, but I think we all would have been much happier with him instead of Bobby and Garrett Cooper.

[mvp 78]

Definitely have to keep Grissom because he cost a king's ransom. To get him the Sox not only gave away Sale, who is now the Braves' ace, but are also paying $17M of his salary.

 

Who cares? Ship him out of town if he's not looking good.

[mvp 78]

I'm not advocating platooning them off of splits, just Teel is mashing. If both are still hitting one can DH some as well.

 

Also, not that it changes my opinion, but I don't necessarily expect Wongs reverse splits to conitnue for his whole career.

 

Being an MLB catcher is MUCH MORE than just hitting.

[mvp 78]

I should have made it clearer--the real point is how ( & when) do you call the Yoshida signing on par with some of the bad deals of the last 15 years. Would it be too painful to JH to just pay him off and give him away ? Yoshi's thumb pain will be chronic for the rest of the season, maybe like O'Neill's knee. It would not be inconceivable to basically bench Yoshi , use only as a PH and try to move him over the winter.

 

Every comment on O'Neill contains the phrase ( "If healthy") . When Abreu returns shortly, He will be put back in RF and may take a while to get back to MLB speed . He and Ref will likely platoon vs LH'ers. A RHB that can play SS and 2B or 1B would not be a wasted move near the deadline. Casas may or may not get fully over his injury without a recurrence or an altered swing .

 

He was a slight disappointment last year and hasn't found his footing this year due to injuries. I'm not throwing the baby out with the bath water just yet. He still has time to earn some of that contract back.

 

He's been better than Hanley, Pablo, Rusney, Crawford and Sale extension.

[mvp 78]

You’ve decided all that based on his whopping 18 games played this year? Or his success over his long 104 game major league career?

 

I will give you he can catch the ball better than Dalbec. He probably hits better than Dalbec, though it would be interesting to compare their numbers through the same number of games and PAs in their careers; Dalbec looked halfway decent early on. What Romy apparently can’t do is stay on the field. He’s been on the DL for 3/4 of this season so far. He was on the DL for 3/4 of 2023 as well. A back up is of no use if he’s not available, and one thing you can say about Dalbec is he always seems to be available to play.

 

I’m not saying Dalbec’s the guy, but counting on Gonzalez as a back up doesn’t seem wise either given his history. That Davis guy you mentioned earlier seems somewhat intriguing, but could he be Cooper II?

 

Romy was good enough to be the benchwarmer on the 2023 ChiSox. He's a fill in that can play anywhere without being an embarrassment, but not someone you want playing everyday. Basically, he's a AAAA UTIL guy.

[mvp 78]

Teel is mashing in AA, probably should be promoted within a month. How long do you think they will keep him at AAA for?

He's going to be ready sooner, rather than later.

 

Not based on his defense.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox top pitching prospect, Luis Perales, to undergo TJ surgery. Out until 2026 most likely.

 

It's his 4th year in the system and he doesn't even have 165 IP.

 

Check please!!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I should have made it clearer--the real point is how ( & when) do you call the Yoshida signing on par with some of the bad deals of the last 15 years. Would it be too painful to JH to just pay him off and give him away ? Yoshi's thumb pain will be chronic for the rest of the season, maybe like O'Neill's knee. It would not be inconceivable to basically bench Yoshi , use only as a PH and try to move him over the winter.

 

Every comment on O'Neill contains the phrase ( "If healthy") .

 

So it's inevitable that every comment now on Yoshida starts with "If injured."

 

"If injured," we just have to pay him, but never have to play him again.

 

"If injured" is not something affecting his status, though... then we have to pay him and watch him roll over to the second baseman.

[Hugh2]

Being an MLB catcher is MUCH MORE than just hitting.

 

Never said it wasn't. But now that's on my mind here are some other first round college catchers and how old they were when they broke into the Majors

 

Buster Posey 22

Mike Zunino 22

Yasmani Grandal 23

Jason Castro 23

Matt Wieters 23

 

 

Teel will be 23 before next season starts. Suggesting he may be close to MLB level is not analogous with he is ready, and it's certainly not crazy to suggest he may be close to ready.

[mvp 78]

First appearance in MLB

 

Posey 235 OPS, good following season after 47 more games in AAA (so why call him up the year before???)

Zunino 620 OPS, not good until 26 years old

Grandal 863 OPS as second half call up at age 23 (would be 2nd half of next year for Teel which seems fine with me)

Castro 573 OPS as second half call up at age 23

Wieters 753 OPS as early season call up at age 23, never really reached the heights expected of him especially first few seasons

 

None of the guys you listed were really ready their age 22 season, which you want to push Teel to appear this year. Have him appear 2nd half of next year? Sure? That seems like a more realistic timetable considering the above datapoints. He also doesn't have the prospect ceiling of some of the players mentioned above (Wieters, Posey).

[moonslav59]

They should have found a better backup 1B/3B IMO. Justin Turner hasn't been great, but I think we all would have been much happier with him instead of Bobby and Garrett Cooper.

 

Agreed. I am just speaking to the no point in keeping Dalbec just for 3B depth.

[Hugh2]

First appearance in MLB

 

Posey 235 OPS, good following season after 47 more games in AAA (so why call him up the year before???)

Zunino 620 OPS, not good until 26 years old

Grandal 863 OPS as second half call up at age 23 (would be 2nd half of next year for Teel which seems fine with me)

Castro 573 OPS as second half call up at age 23

Wieters 753 OPS as early season call up at age 23, never really reached the heights expected of him especially first few seasons

 

None of the guys you listed were really ready their age 22 season, which you want to push Teel to appear this year. Have him appear 2nd half of next year? Sure? That seems like a more realistic timetable considering the above datapoints. He also doesn't have the prospect ceiling of some of the players mentioned above (Wieters, Posey).

 

 

Yeah, welcome to the bigs, most players break into the bigs and aren't instantaneously all stars. That doesn't disprove, or prove my point either way. How many first round catchers debuted in the big leagues when they were 24 or older?????

[moonslav59]

Yeah, welcome to the bigs, most players break into the bigs and aren't instantaneously all stars. That doesn't disprove, or prove my point either way. How many first round catchers debuted in the big leagues when they were 24 or older?????

 

It took VTek until about 30 years old to be known for his defense. He was 26, when he first saw significant action and 27 for his first .800+ OPS season.

 

I think, with catchers, the age of reaching maturity is maybe more like 27-29 than 24-27.

[Hugh2]

It took VTek until about 30 years old to be known for his defense. He was 26, when he first saw significant action and 27 for his first .800+ OPS season.

 

I think, with catchers, the age of reaching maturity is maybe more like 27-29 than 24-27.

 

Well that's the reality you gotta face with many big leaguers. Most people don't bust in and immediately hit, many do, you just don't always know. Look at Duran, look at Pedey, although to be fair Pedey hit really well relatively quickly in the large scheme of things a down month or two isn't a lot. Look at even Bogey who hit OK then had a sophmore slump, Mookie was instantenously good. Some guys come up and are good relatively quickly and then fall off a cliff (Andrew Benintendi.

 

The thing is, none of us really know, nor do we have the expertise to say when these kids are ready. But they certainly shouldn't ever be held back if they're ready to take the next step either.

 

They're all hitting well and reaching the 250 PA threshold. I suspsect all 3 will be promoted to AAA this year and at least one of them is going to break onto the MLB roster, perhaps it's just a cup of coffee, perhaps more.

[notin]

Romy was good enough to be the benchwarmer on the 2023 ChiSox. He's a fill in that can play anywhere without being an embarrassment, but not someone you want playing everyday. Basically, he's a AAAA UTIL guy.

 

He's a utility infielder. Right now his future in Boston is probably threatened by the resurgence of David Hamilton. But he is a better overall player than Dalbec...

Edited June 18, 2024 by notin

[notin]

It's his 4th year in the system and he doesn't even have 165 IP.

 

Check please!!!

 

Does that mean we can trade him for an infield prospect?

[moonslav59]

Well that's the reality you gotta face with many big leaguers. Most people don't bust in and immediately hit, many do, you just don't always know. Look at Duran, look at Pedey, although to be fair Pedey hit really well relatively quickly in the large scheme of things a down month or two isn't a lot. Look at even Bogey who hit OK then had a sophmore slump, Mookie was instantenously good. Some guys come up and are good relatively quickly and then fall off a cliff (Andrew Benintendi.

 

The thing is, none of us really know, nor do we have the expertise to say when these kids are ready. But they certainly shouldn't ever be held back if they're ready to take the next step either.

 

They're all hitting well and reaching the 250 PA threshold. I suspsect all 3 will be promoted to AAA this year and at least one of them is going to break onto the MLB roster, perhaps it's just a cup of coffee, perhaps more.

 

I'd love to see all our big 3 up as soon as possible.

 

The day we call them up will be a happy one for me.

 

I trust Sox brass to know when that day is.

[Duran Is The Man]

Red Sox top pitching prospect, Luis Perales, to undergo TJ surgery. Out until 2026 most likely.

 

hells bells....i didn't think players got hurt until they moved up to Boston or signed a big FA contract with the Sox.

[Hugh2]

I'd love to see all our big 3 up as soon as possible.

 

The day we call them up will be a happy one for me.

 

I trust Sox brass to know when that day is.

 

There's a lot of moving variables, It's more probably than not we see any one of these guys next year rather than this year. Development aside, a lot depends on the big league club.

 

Here we stand, 2.5 games out of the playoffs. It feels like everytime they get some momentum they fall off, and everytime the start to lose it they string together a few wins. If they get healthy, perform, and are in the playoff hunt. There's not much need to rush Teel with the Wong/McGuire duo, or Anthony with Duran/Rafaela/Abreu, or Mayer with Rafaela, Hamilton, Valdez on the roster.

 

But if anyone one of those guys is mashing in AAA come late July or early august and the Sox think they're ready or close to it and someone like Wong/Rafaela go down could I see one of those guys being called upon to come up if the team thinks they may be ready to contribute? Absolutely, and I still think one of them may even get a cup of coffee this year.

[vegasbob]

He's a utility infielder. Right now his future in Boston is probably threatened by the resurgence of David Hamilton. But he is a better overall player than Dalbec...

 

Utility player, of which you need at least 1, if not 2. Hamilton has probably the inside lane over Gonzalez if David can finish the year in a consistent fashion at SS. There is a $2M club option on Refsnyder for 2025, and I bet they sign him up for that price.

Then you have the #2 catcher, currently McGuire , who will be in arb #3 I believe. So 1 bench slot left on a `13 man position player roster . Probably come down to Valdez vs Gonzalez.

 

Keep in mind there will be some other youngbloods looking to break through next Spring, Anthony, Teel (?), Mayer (?). Sorry Story and Gruesome Grissom will be back as well ( for a short while)

 

Yoshida kind clogs the Red Sox colon , ability wise and money wise, unless he starts hitting .350 OBP and .800 OPS for his $18M salary. My advice, carry Yoshi into the winter and see if a multiplayer deal pops up, be prepared to pay about $12M of his money, even if he hits well over last 3 months.

Edited June 18, 2024 by vegasbob

[vegasbob]

I'd love to see all our big 3 up as soon as possible.

 

The day we call them up will be a happy one for me.

 

I trust Sox brass to know when that day is.

 

They told me . It is October 4th for a year end luncheon with JH, who will explain the Lux Tax to them, and Breslow ( again)

[moonslav59]

There's a lot of moving variables, It's more probably than not we see any one of these guys next year rather than this year. Development aside, a lot depends on the big league club.

 

Here we stand, 2.5 games out of the playoffs. It feels like everytime they get some momentum they fall off, and everytime the start to lose it they string together a few wins. If they get healthy, perform, and are in the playoff hunt. There's not much need to rush Teel with the Wong/McGuire duo, or Anthony with Duran/Rafaela/Abreu, or Mayer with Rafaela, Hamilton, Valdez on the roster.

 

But if anyone one of those guys is mashing in AAA come late July or early august and the Sox think they're ready or close to it and someone like Wong/Rafaela go down could I see one of those guys being called upon to come up if the team thinks they may be ready to contribute? Absolutely, and I still think one of them may even get a cup of coffee this year.

 

Anything can happen, but our bench has been our savior, so far, and with players coming back (Abreu, Grissom- who may need to earn another shot in AAA and I Campbel & later, Hendriks.

 

It might take 2-3 OF injuries for Anthony to be the guy called up.

 

If Wong or McGuire gets hurt, I think Heineman is the guy we promote.

 

We have 3 middle infielders who have been doing pretty well: DHam, Romy and EValdez. Westbrook may be replaced by Grissom, and maybe even Yorke is above Mayer on the ML Ready AAA list. We also have Alvarez & Sogard.

 

One way I could see these guys called up, if if we have a major firesale and teardown, where 4-5 roster slots open up on the 40.

 

We all know the FAs to be: Jansen, O'Neill, Martin, Pivetta, Anderson, DSmith and Keller. Maybe we decide to trade Wink and McGuire or some surprise guys Brez and or Cora has soured on.

 

I just think the odds are low we see any of the big 3 in 2024. I would not be surprised if we wait until mis 2025 or even SEPT '25 to see even one.

[moonslav59]

Don't look, now, but O'Neill is over .900 and Rafaela is nearing .690.

 

We can't seem to gain much ground on the teams above us in the WC race.

 

Currently, we are 11th in MLB.

-2.0 from MIN, who is tied w TBR at 6-6 in the 9th.

-2.5 from KCR (and ATL from the NL)

-4.0 from #7 MIL and -4.5 from #6 SEA

 

On the flipside, we are 2 up on #12 STL and 14 teams are between a .452 Win% and .500. (3.5 games seperate STL from #25 TEX & HOU!)

 

Only 8 games seperate 18 teams in MLB

#8 ATL and #25 TEX/HOU

 

Only 7 games seperate us from #4 CLE and being 25th by ourselves.

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Leaders

 

18 players are over .850 with 180 ABs and we have 3 of them:

 

1.115 Judge

1.024 Soto

.996 Ohtani

.994 Ozuna

.986 Kwan

.979 Tucker

.951 G Henderson

.930 Devers

.916 Witt

.912 O'Neill

.906 Harper

.905 Freeman

.903 Profar

.896 Correa

.893 Betts

.873 Y Alvarez

.863 K Marte

.850 C Wong

[mvp 78]

Yeah, welcome to the bigs, most players break into the bigs and aren't instantaneously all stars. That doesn't disprove, or prove my point either way. How many first round catchers debuted in the big leagues when they were 24 or older?????

 

It shows to me that there is no reason to push him to make BOS this season. Might as well wait for him to be more ready at some point next season.

[mvp 78]

He's a utility infielder. Right now his future in Boston is probably threatened by the resurgence of David Hamilton. But he is a better overall player than Dalbec...

 

I'm not sure he can field any other IF position than 2B.

[moonslav59]

It shows to me that there is no reason to push him to make BOS this season. Might as well wait for him to be more ready at some point next season.

 

Agreed, and since we look like a team trying to keep our budget low, getting more prime years out of our younger players over calling them up earlier and starting their "clocks," pre-prime might be a factor as well.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure he can field any other IF position than 2B.

 

You mean "field well."

 

MLB

53 gms at SS

9 gms at 2B

 

Minors

229 at SS

91 at 2B

8 in CF

[moonslav59]

Houck's ERA is up to 2.14, now, and our rotation numbers have come back down to earth, over the last few weeks, but this still looks rather decent, even beyond the lense of what was expected:

 

2.14 Houck

3.54 Crawford

3.88 Pivetta

4.15 Criswell

5.00 Bello

 

A lot of talk has been about Criswell getting lucky, and in a few ways, he has, but a 1.21 WHIP is not bad, and we all know some of those hits should have been outs, with a better D. His .708 OPS Against is better than Crawford and Bello. His .299 BAbip is higher than all other Sox current SP'ers.

 

OPS Against Last 28 Days

.523 Houck

.754 Criswell

.765 Pivetta

.776 Crawford

.796 Bello

 

The team is 3 games over .500 and 8-3 in Criswell's starts.

 

Our rotation is still ranked T4 in fWAR. As bad as the rotation has done, recently, they are still ranked T8th in fWAR is their last 37 games (cutting our current season in half.)

 

40+ IP

1. Houck 3.3 fWAR

T23. Crawford 1.8 (same if you count SP'ers with under 40 IP)

T68. Criswell 0.9 (T73, if you count all SP)

T87. Pivetta 0.6 (T104)

T100. Bello 0.4 (T119 out of 206 SP'ers with 10+ IP)

 

Guys like Criswell are the ones I expected Bloom to find. True, he got Pivetta, but one in 4 years was not very good.

 

Edited June 19, 2024 by moonslav59