A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

@tylermilliken_

Here is where the Red Sox rank in MLB through 75 games.

 

Batting Average: .254 - 5th

OBP: .325 - 5th

SLG: .418 - 4th

OPS: .743 - 5th

Runs Scored: 350 - 9th

wRC+: 105 - 12th

 

ERA: 3.45 - 5th

Rotation ERA: 3.48 - 6th

Bullpen ERA: 3.43 - 7th

Strikeouts: 279 - 6th

BAA: .233 - 13th

 

Errors: 54 - Worst in MLB

Defensive Runs Saved: 14 - 12th

OAA: -9 - 24th

[mvp 78]

You're right, it's just fun to say we're throwing Fitts.

 

Might not be fun to watch.

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

MLB’s best records since May 19:

 

1. Orioles 20-10, .667

2. Yankees 19-10, .655

3. Guardians 16-9, .640

4. Mariners 19-11, .633

5. RED SOX 18-11, .621

 

In that time, the Sox lead MLB in AVG (.273) and OBP (.342) and rank 2nd in runs per game (5.3), OPS (.786), and steals (41).

[Bellhorn04]

They are on the good blip right now. They'll be back at .500 soon enough.

 

I think they're on the ascent, but it's baseball, so we shall see.

[Nick]

You're right, it's just fun to say we're throwing Fitts.

 

Yep. I was just trying to be funny.

[moonslav59]

Bloom trading away Vaz for Abreu and Valdez may have been his best move.

Throw in the $30M for 3 year contract Vaz received the following year makes me thankful that we went away from him. That also hastened the arrival of C Wong

 

It seemed, at the time, many posters were against that move. For some, it was about the idea of "selling." Many were more pissed about how we handle notifying him he was traded.

 

I liked Vaz. He was a decent hitter, for a catcher, despite some serious ups and downs. His defense was okay, but I never liked how he handled the staff. His back-up almost always had better numbers with the rotation.

 

Certainly Bloom made enough mistakes to not be here anymore. The budget restrictions, aside, he just did not do what he was signed to do: find bargain basement players that overperform, He did find a few more than Abreu & Valdez, but missed on too many, especially his bigger money deals.

 

Other good deals besides Vaz for Abreu & Vadlez:

Sam Travis for Jeffery Springs (before he was traded away and got good w TBR)

2 months of Workman & Hembree for Pivetta

Beni for Wink, Gambrell and others (saved money that allowed for Renfroe signing)

Dare I say, Renfroe for Hamilton & others?

Ottavino for cash/nothing

Whitlock off Rule 5 draft

Schreiber off waivers was very good (later traded for Sandlin by Brez)

Y Rios for cash (June '21)

H Robles for Scherff

Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber (rental)

Travis Shaw off waivers (Aug '21)

Jaylin Davis off waivers

T Pham for Northcut

McGuire for Diekman

Bernardino off waivers

P Reyes for cash

Urias for B Blaylock (Brez traded him for ICampbell)

 

Signings that worked okay or better:

Zach Kelly

Moreland (traded at '20 deadline)

Pillar (traded at '20 deadline)

Renfroe (trade the next winter for JBJ, Hamilton and Binelas)

Kike at $14M/2 (2021-2022, not the extension)

Iggy (Sept 2021)

Refsnyder (DEC '21)

Wacha

R Hill

M Strahm

Justin Turner

A Duvall

Paxton (borderline ok)

Jansen

Martin

 

Come to think of it, there were more okay to goods than I thought, but he still feel short.

 

[moonslav59]

This Sox team went 2-2 against the White Sox, whom many have argued might be the worst team in MLB in the past 20 years. Then took 4 of 6 from the two best teams in MLB.

 

I just can’t gage anything from their opponents any more …

 

Very true. We seem to play up (and down) to our opponents, just about evenly.

[moonslav59]

I think they're on the ascent, but it's baseball, so we shall see.

 

Dare we say the team looks like it is improving and might be even better, next year?

 

Oh, the horror!

[Dipre]

Keep in mind this hot stretch is happening without Abreu or Casas. Two of the best hitters on this team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Very true. We seem to play up (and down) to our opponents, just about evenly.

 

But Moon, remember at the outset of the season that you said all the favorites had flaws of their own (at least, the AL East teams -- all who were favorites to finish ahead of Boston).

 

Kudos to you -- and after the first month, I posted a bunch of stats that showed the juggerNOT Yankees neck-and-dreck with the Red Sox in fielding, whiffing and LOBing. Even Max was amazed.

 

And after watching the first NY series this week, it has to be obvious even to Yankee fans they're going nowhere with a centerfielder named Judge -- who is so valuable, they won't even let him dive for a ball, so he won't risk injury. Boston's D may still blow overall, but I'd take our entire outfield and starting catcher any day over MLB's NUMBER ONE TEAM... and by mid-summer may have a case that our infield is just as mediocre as theirs...

[moonslav59]

Keep in mind this hot stretch is happening without Abreu or Casas. Two of the best hitters on this team.

 

Indeed, and with back-ups to back-ups in some cases, giving us key contributions.

 

To think that Houck was likely going to be in the pen, had Gio not gotten hurt.

Criswell was probably not intended to be our 7th starter.

Bernardino started the season in AAA.

Slaten was not supposed to be our #2/3 pen arm, this quickly.

I think D Smith is the 4th 1Bman used, this year (Casas>Dalbec>Cooper>)

EValdez was maybe the #2 2Bman, who played due to Grissom's IL stint, but then was demoted to AAA and became like our 6th choice at middle IF, after trying Reyes, Short, Romy, DHam-twice and Westbrook.

DHam fell down the depth charts, like Valdez, only to return with fury.

Abreu started the season on the bench.

Ref was maybe our 5th OF'er/platoon type player.

How far down the depth chart was Booser and Uwasawa in March?

 

This team is as deep as we've been since before the tear down in 2020.

[mvp 78]

Very true. We seem to play up (and down) to our opponents, just about evenly.

 

That's what medicore .500 baseball clubs do.

[moonslav59]

But Moon, remember at the outset of the season that you said all the favorites had flaws of their own (at least, the AL East teams -- all who were favorites to finish ahead of Boston).

 

Kudos to you -- and after the first month, I posted a bunch of stats that showed the juggerNOT Yankees neck-and-dreck with the Red Sox in fielding, whiffing and LOBing. Even Max was amazed.

 

And after watching the first NY series this week, it has to be obvious even to Yankee fans they're going nowhere with a centerfielder named Judge -- who is so valuable, they won't even let him dive for a ball, so he won't risk injury. Boston's D may still blow overall, but I'd take our entire outfield and starting catcher any day over MLB's NUMBER ONE TEAM... and by mid-summer may have a case that our infield is just as mediocre as theirs...

 

I think the ALE had been so strong for so many years, that we just assumed the Rays would keep "finding a way" to stay very good. (They still may rebound.) I've never bought the hype on TOR, and thought they overperformed, last year. I knew BAL would be good, but I did not expect the Yanks to play this well, especially w/o Cole. The injury bug is starting to creep in on them, and with their ages and injury history, anything can happen.

 

I mean look at HOU and TEX, this year! WTF!!!!

 

I knew our team had a ton of question marks, but in March, I listed them all out, and asked, how many of them need to work out well and pointed out how most did not really look like longshot wishful thinking asks.

 

As it turned out, many did not work out, or haven't so far (Bello, Casas, Grissom, Story, Gio and maybe the most predictable guy, Martin, has not done well.

 

What I feel most happy about is how many of the players leading this tam, right now, are under team control for 3-4+ years- some at pre-arb or arb costs for all of them. I know people do not want to hear about the budget, but the reality is, it might be the only way we can ever win, again, is by having 17-18 players on the 26 not making FA money.

 

The hopes on the farm are fanning my optimism, too.

[mvp 78]

Dare we say the team looks like it is improving and might be even better, next year?

 

Oh, the horror!

 

Next year? Probably. I have higher hopes going forward especially if the OF is solidified and Mayer can come up and fill in one of the MIF holes. I believe they still need a top of the rotation guy. I haven't seen Houck do it for a full season so I'm not a believer yet.

[mvp 78]

Keep in mind this hot stretch is happening without Abreu or Casas. Two of the best hitters on this team.

 

Hamilton and Valdez are making up for it in the short term.

[moonslav59]

That's what medicore .500 baseball clubs do.

 

Yup, and I fully expect this team to have more tough stretches, going forward, maybe even against worse teams.

 

It is very likely, this team is not as bad as many felt it was, but also not as good as they look, right now. Nobody should be surprised, if we still end up at .500 or a little below.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I believe they still need a top of the rotation guy. I haven't seen Houck do it for a full season so I'm not a believer yet.

 

It's gonna have to be a trade, like this year's Burnes or Cease swaps. Still waiting for Breslow to made that "painful" deal...

 

Forget about signing Burnes next winter; Henry may never approve of big money for a free agent pitcher again -- not after the Giolito fiasco, and Sale's extension, and Price, who both went against his better judgement.

[moonslav59]

It's gonna have to be a trade, like this year's Burnes or Cease swaps. Still waiting for Breslow to made that "painful" deal...

 

Forget about signing Burnes next winter; Henry may never approve of big money for a free agent pitcher again -- not after the Giolito fiasco, and Sale's extension, and Price, who both went against his better judgement.

 

I doubt we trade for 1 and dones. Maybe not even 2 and dones.

 

I think we will have to sacrifice some of our top farm everyday talent to get a younger pitcher with 3+ years of control. Just bite the bullet, knowing it will look like an overpay, and just hope the pitcher we get stays healthy and doesn't decline.

 

We have so many everyday prospects ranked highly or on the serious upswing. Our 26 and 40 man roster looks as deep as it has in a long time, especially non-pitchers. It seems like an obvious path to take.

[moonslav59]

I think Abreu is ready. He homered, twice, last night.

 

The demoted Westbrook went 2-3 w a homer, 5 rbi and 2 BBs.

 

Wink pitched 6 scoreless innings

6Hits

2BB

4K

[Bellhorn04]

That's what medicore .500 baseball clubs do.

 

With a Pythagorean record of 42-33 after a pretty tough stretch of games, I'd say they've moved up to better than mediocre.

[Hugh2]

I doubt we trade for 1 and dones. Maybe not even 2 and dones.

 

I think we will have to sacrifice some of our top farm everyday talent to get a younger pitcher with 3+ years of control. Just bite the bullet, knowing it will look like an overpay, and just hope the pitcher we get stays healthy and doesn't decline.

 

We have so many everyday prospects ranked highly or on the serious upswing. Our 26 and 40 man roster looks as deep as it has in a long time, especially non-pitchers. It seems like an obvious path to take.

 

That's fine, but if you're trading for a guy that fits that profile, elite pitcher with 3+ years of control then teams are going to ask for both Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer+++ more. In todays world, theres' also a higher chance that guy gets injured.

 

At this point, especially with how well the pitching is starting to turn in the organization, I'd start to just invest more in our own pitching and sign a free agent to fill in the gaps.

[Old Red]

Indeed, and with back-ups to back-ups in some cases, giving us key contributions.

 

To think that Houck was likely going to be in the pen, had Gio not gotten hurt.

Criswell was probably not intended to be our 7th starter.

Bernardino started the season in AAA.

Slaten was not supposed to be our #2/3 pen arm, this quickly.

I think D Smith is the 4th 1Bman used, this year (Casas>Dalbec>Cooper>)

EValdez was maybe the #2 2Bman, who played due to Grissom's IL stint, but then was demoted to AAA and became like our 6th choice at middle IF, after trying Reyes, Short, Romy, DHam-twice and Westbrook.

DHam fell down the depth charts, like Valdez, only to return with fury.

Abreu started the season on the bench.

Ref was maybe our 5th OF'er/platoon type player.

How far down the depth chart was Booser and Uwasawa in March?

 

This team is as deep as we've been since before the tear down in 2020.

 

I have no doubt that Whit would have been the odd man out for the rotation, and not Houck if Gio hadn’t gotten hurt. Whit said himself he’d rather be the Swiss Army knife to fill in where ever.

The only reason the Bern Man started out in Worcester was the Red Sox were so concerned of losing JR to somebody. Bad call it was.

Lots of guys have gotten chances, because of injuries, and have run with those chances. Not planned that way, but now most have worked out.

[moonslav59]

That's fine, but if you're trading for a guy that fits that profile, elite pitcher with 3+ years of control then teams are going to ask for both Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer+++ more. In todays world, theres' also a higher chance that guy gets injured.

 

At this point, especially with how well the pitching is starting to turn in the organization, I'd start to just invest more in our own pitching and sign a free agent to fill in the gaps.

 

I know the risks. I'm not sure it would take 2 of the Big 3 to land a promising young pitcher. It might take one plus a guy like Bleis, Campbell or Cespedes, but we are overloaded at everyday players and short on Pitching. I'm not for trading one top prospect plus several lower ones for a 1 or 2 year proven SP'er.

 

I just can't be okay with that.

 

I liked the Castillo trade AND extension, so that type of trade & sign, yes.

[moonslav59]

We all know a couple blowouts have skewed our run differential, but here are the rankings, anyway:

+

125 NYY

113 BAL

106 LAD

101 PHI

91 CLE

66 MIL

55 KCR

47 BOS Even if you took away 20 runs, we'd still be ranked 8th.

16 MIN (+1.5 gms on BOS)

14 SEA (+3.5 gms on BOS)

11 SDP

10 CIN (35-39)

6 AZ

 

(STL is -29 and just 1 game under .500)

 

Take away the unearned runs and maybe we pass KCR and MIL.

[mvp 78]

With a Pythagorean record of 42-33 after a pretty tough stretch of games, I'd say they've moved up to better than mediocre.

 

Because the Red Sox have a decent pitching staff, it's less likely that they will be blown out than they will blow out an opponent. Therefore, they will thumb their noses at Pythogoras and still be a .500 team.

[mvp 78]

I have no doubt that Whit would have been the odd man out for the rotation, and not Houck if Gio hadn’t gotten hurt. Whit said himself he’d rather be the Swiss Army knife to fill in where ever.

The only reason the Bern Man started out in Worcester was the Red Sox were so concerned of losing JR to somebody. Bad call it was.

Lots of guys have gotten chances, because of injuries, and have run with those chances. Not planned that way, but now most have worked out.

 

Likely they start the season with a 6 man rotation IMO. Whitlock was mowing down hitters in the Spring. Hard to move that to the pen.

[Bellhorn04]

Because the Red Sox have a decent pitching staff, it's less likely that they will be blown out than they will blow out an opponent. Therefore, they will thumb their noses at Pythogoras and still be a .500 team.

 

So you honestly believe they're going to be 41-46 in their last 87?

[moonslav59]

Because the Red Sox have a decent pitching staff, it's less likely that they will be blown out than they will blow out an opponent. Therefore, they will thumb their noses at Pythogoras and still be a .500 team.

 

The P theory also supports your skepticism on Cora being "amazing."

[mvp 78]

2024 Sox

Amount of times outscored opponents by 8 or more runs: 7 (largest amount 17)

Amount of times outscored by opponents by 8 or more runs: 1 (largest amount 8)

 

SKEWED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mvp 78]

The P theory also supports your skepticism on Cora being "amazing."

 

No, because I don't believe that theory has much validity. Cora seems to be really good at getting a lot out of some of these younger players.