A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

I think a hitter has to be closer to ready than a pitcher to be grabbed and kept. If a team really believes in a guy they might pluck that A/AA starter with a 5.00 ERA but 12K/9 and move him to the bullpen.

 

We also have to remember they will ideally need a spot for Hendricks/Story/Giolito on the 40 man next year too.

 

Yes, I mentioned Hendriks, who will grab a slot, this summer, actually and Fulmer, but yes, Gio, Story,Whitlock and even Murphy will need slots, unless we trade Murphy.

 

Casas will be taking a slot back, this year, too.

 

You are right. Maybe there will be a bigger crunch than I thought.

 

I think MVP is right about Wink being as good as gone (by trade.)

 

My guess is that Brez & Co. have identified a few others that don't fit their plans or march to the same drum.

 

If we weren't short on catching depth at the ML level, I could see McGuire being traded, this winter.

 

Our OF seems crowded, and I can't see us dealing away Duran, Abreu, Rafaela or Refsnyder, but we need a big RH'd bat, and what other position has a player that fits that bill, except OF and DH. We currently have Yoshida and Ref to DH, and it may be hard to cut ties with Yoshida. Ref is great vs LHPs, and has even hit righties well, this year, but we need another RHB, besides him.

 

Casas will not be platooned. That leaves middle IF or OF/DH.

 

Maybe we role the dice with the same everyday roster, minus O'Neill or an O'Neill replacement, but that is very risky, unless we are counting on Story to come back, stay healthy and be that big RHB.

 

DHam and Grissom should not be viewed as O'Neill's replacemenmt in the line-up.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Will Grissom even be able to get playing time when he's ready to play again?

 

The way things are going they may have to send him to Worcester.

[notin]

Will Grissom even be able to get playing time when he's ready to play again?

 

The way things are going they may have to send him to Worcester.

 

If he cannot get playing time because of some unforeseen circumstances where another player has taken over, that’s not a problem.

 

Of course right now, that player is Enmanuel Valdez…

Edited June 17, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

Lets say we add Fitts, Guerrero, Yorke, Dobbins and Lugo as Rule 5 protectees. Here might be the 40 man, before any additions or swapouts:

 

12 SP: Houck, Giolito, Crawford, Bello, Fitts, Criswell, Perales, Dobbins, Murphy, Walter, Winckowski, Wikelman

10 RP: Hendriks, Whitlock, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, Fulmer, ICampbell, Kelly, Booser, Guerrero

3 C: Wong, McGuire, ____ (Heineman or the like)

2 1B: Casas, Dalbec or the like

4 2B: DHam, Valdez, Grissom, Yorke

2 SS: Story, Romy G or Westbrook

1 3B: Devers

6 OF: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Lugo

 

Bubble to be replaced by trade or FAs

Edited June 17, 2024 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

This is the right place to ramble.

 

This team is pretty much in the same place it's been mid year the last few years. I don't expect the results this year to be much different BUT the road ahead probably looks much rosier this year than it did in 2023, 2022.

 

Pitching is good, guys who are performing are generally young and locked up. Our farm is the strongest it's been in almost a decade with a lot of those guys close to MLB ready.

 

They are 3 games out of a wild card, I'm not sure you can sell. You don't have to empty the farm and go big, but you can't sell. I wouldn't mind a lateral move here if a guy with multiple years of control becomes available. For example, sell Pivetta and buy Crochet

 

The Sox have a roster crunch coming up, rule 5 is going to be very interesting next year, so they almost need to trade a few guys down on the farm.

 

Deadline Wish list.

 

Starting pitcher -

RHH bat - SS/OF/DH

high leverage reliever.

 

If you added that to Casas coming back this team could make a run. I don't think they're going to win the world series but they could get into the playoffs, show us they're comitted, and get us excited for 2025.

 

There are places they can sell. I'd STILL listen to offers for Jansen - I wouldn't just dump him, but he is a luxury good on this team, and if you can get something good, do it. Winckowski seems like a candidate to move. 2B needs help clearly - but I kinda think maybe they'll just see what Yorke later in the season - and assuming he continues to play well at Woo-stah.

[sk7326]

Will Grissom even be able to get playing time when he's ready to play again?

 

The way things are going they may have to send him to Worcester.

 

If he is not careful, Yorke might get a look.

[moonslav59]

If he giant get playing time because of some unforeseen circumstances where another player has taken over, that’s not a problem.

 

Of course right now, that player is Enmanuel Valdez…

 

And, if Story ever writes a chapter in his book, there is DHam to add to the mix at 2B and middle IF.

 

Story

Valdez

DHam

Grissom

Romy G or Westbrook

Yorke (Rule 5 addition?)

 

[moonslav59]

There are places they can sell. I'd STILL listen to offers for Jansen - I wouldn't just dump him, but he is a luxury good on this team, and if you can get something good, do it. Winckowski seems like a candidate to move. 2B needs help clearly - but I kinda think maybe they'll just see what Yorke later in the season - and assuming he continues to play well at Woo-stah.

 

I think we stick with DHam, EValdez and Romy G/Grissom/Westbrook at middle IF for the rest of 2024.

 

I doubt we trade for SS or 2B. I'm not sure we consider a rental type trade, but if we could find a big RHB that plays 2B, maybe... (Doubtful)

 

I still think we make no deals that are just about 2024, unless we trade someone we are sure would not be in our future plans, anyway, and that begs the question about why would another GM want that type of player, unless it is a guy like Wink, who is apparently in the doghouse.

 

I think we trade Jansen, no matter what. We may feel like Hendriks and ICampbell can fill a pen slot, and mayb e we try Slaten as the closer.

 

We might trade Martin, if he is back and in form.

 

O'Neill is another strong trade candidate, if we are sellers.

 

Pivetta is the hardest one to trade, without it looking like a total punt on 2024.

 

I guess we'll know more in 5-6 weeks.

 

[mvp 78]

You must think the risk of Jh Garcia being taken is minimal.

 

Lugo seems like he'll be grabbed by someone- not that this means we should protect him.

 

He's still in High A. I think his proximity is very far away and the pitching he's facing now is nothing compared to what he'd see at AA, let alone MLB. He's bat first without much glove. I don't see a team trying to carry him on their bench for a year. The more attractive player would be Castro IMO.

[mvp 78]

Will Grissom even be able to get playing time when he's ready to play again?

 

The way things are going they may have to send him to Worcester.

 

I would.

[moonslav59]

Much of the recent Sox success has been due to improved play from...

 

last 14 Days OPS

 

1.067 Vadlez

.893 DHam

.857 Smith

.779 Rafaela

.717 Westbrook

 

Whodathunk this?

[mvp 78]

If he cannot get playing time because of some unforeseen circumstances where another player has taken over, that’s not a problem.

 

Of course right now, that player is Enmanuel Valdez…

 

Since being recalled from WOO:

 

1185 OPS

[mvp 78]

If he is not careful, Yorke might get a look.

 

In 2025.

[notin]

Since being recalled from WOO:

 

1185 OPS

 

The OPS is one thing, but he is hitting the ball HARD and doing so of some very good pitchers…

[notin]

I would.

 

The way Hamilton and Valdez are playing, it’s the best option for now. If either returns to Planet Normal Earth, then alternatives for Grissom’s fate enter the picture…

[moonslav59]

The way Hamilton and Valdez are playing, it’s the best option for now. If either returns to Planet Normal Earth, then alternatives for Grissom’s fate enter the picture…

 

Agreed, and Romy G & Westbrook would get a look, before Yorke, if he's added to the 40.

[notin]

Agreed, and Romy G & Westbrook would get a look, before Yorke, if he's added to the 40.

 

I’m not as pleased with Westbrook as some others are. But as he is only a weak side platoon for 2b, he’s not a huge concern.

 

But I think when Romy returns, Westbrook goes back to Worcester…

[moonslav59]

I’m not as pleased with Westbrook as some others are. But as he is only a weak side platoon for 2b, he’s not a huge concern.

 

But I think when Romy returns, Westbrook goes back to Worcester…

 

Yup.

[Bellhorn04]

There are places they can sell. I'd STILL listen to offers for Jansen - I wouldn't just dump him, but he is a luxury good on this team, and if you can get something good, do it.

 

Is he a luxury good if the Sox make the playoffs? He's second in fWAR for relievers on the Sox after Slaten.

[notin]

Is he a luxury good if the Sox make the playoffs? He's second in fWAR for relievers on the Sox after Slaten.

 

I’d listen on Jansen. But too many factors go into any decision to actually deal him…

[mvp 78]

The way Hamilton and Valdez are playing, it’s the best option for now. If either returns to Planet Normal Earth, then alternatives for Grissom’s fate enter the picture…

 

I think I'd want Grissom to have time to actually succeed in AAA for a couple of weeks before calling him up. He still has options remaining. No reason to rush him next go around.

[mvp 78]

I’m not as pleased with Westbrook as some others are. But as he is only a weak side platoon for 2b, he’s not a huge concern.

 

But I think when Romy returns, Westbrook goes back to Worcester…

 

Westbrook seems a perfectly serviceable AAAA guy, same as Romy.

[notin]

I think I'd want Grissom to have time to actually succeed in AAA for a couple of weeks before calling him up. He still has options remaining. No reason to rush him next go around.

 

That’s a likely scenario, especially while Valdez and Hamilton are in orbit…

[mvp 78]

I’d listen on Jansen. But too many factors go into any decision to actually deal him…

 

If the Sox dump him, it's telling the players there is no playoff run. We'd see the tank job right after same as we did last year.

[notin]

Westbrook seems a perfectly serviceable AAAA guy, same as Romy.

 

I think of Romy as a perfectly serviceable MLB bench player, which is a step above Westbrook.

 

Possibly two steps…

[notin]

If the Sox dump him, it's telling the players there is no playoff run. We'd see the tank job right after same as we did last year.

 

As long as they commit one way or another. What deadline deal signified last year was tanking? At best, it was confusing indecision with no obvious direction….

[mvp 78]

That’s a likely scenario, especially while Valdez and Hamilton are in orbit…

 

I would do it even if they were just playing mediocre. I want Grissom to reach his ceiling. Throwing him back to the fire after another injury is just another setback for him. Give him a little bit of a break and maybe he can be ready to go in August.

[mvp 78]

I think of Romy as a perfectly serviceable MLB bench player, which is a step above Westbrook.

 

Possibly two steps…

 

I think Romy is less than that. He was pretty dreadful last season in MLB.

[notin]

I think Romy is less than that. He was pretty dreadful last season in MLB.

 

He’s serviceable defensively at any non-battery position, except possibly CF, as he has just the one inning out there for his career.

 

His osffense goes up and down, because he’s only been getting about 90PA per season.

 

I’m ok with Romy over Westy…

[sk7326]

Is he a luxury good if the Sox make the playoffs? He's second in fWAR for relievers on the Sox after Slaten.

 

He has been good - but 9th inning guy is what it is. I would not just trade him willy nilly.