A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

Sox fWAR and Ranking by Positions:

 

2nd Pitching at 10.7 (4th as SP/3rd as RP)

2nd LF 2.7 (Duran Da Man)

4th RF 2.6

6th Catcher 2.1

8th CF 1.6

 

14th 3B 1.2

17th SS 1.2 (Surprisingly not bottom 5-10)

19th 1B 0.2 (Casas should help, when he returns.)

 

23rd DH -0.4

30th 2B -1.5 (How much longer can we be the worst, here?)

 

2B Rankings in recent years

30th in '24

28th in '23 (30th '23-'24)

10th in '22 (27th '22-'24)

13th in '21 (25th '21-'24)

30th in '20 (27th '20>)

25th in '19 (28th '19>)

27th in '18 (29th since 2018!)

22nd in '17 (29th, still)

 

9th in 2016 was the last time we were better than #10.

[Dipre]

There's an actual explanation for why the pitching gains of this staff may actually be sustainable. I remember reading articles on both The Athletic and MLB.COM with pretty convincing explanations about the Sox' pitch selection this year compared to the past couple of years.....they just don't throw meatball four seamers anymore. They are more focused on trying to have pitchers tunnel and/or throw their best pitch than trying to establish their fastballs, and it has yielded very good results. That's the same thing Bailey focused on with his pitchers during his time with the Giants, with similar overall results. On a side, the team with the second lowest four seam usage after the Red Sox is actually the Giants.

[Maxbialystock]

There's an actual explanation for why the pitching gains of this staff may actually be sustainable. I remember reading articles on both The Athletic and MLB.COM with pretty convincing explanations about the Sox' pitch selection this year compared to the past couple of years.....they just don't throw meatball four seamers anymore. They are more focused on trying to have pitchers tunnel and/or throw their best pitch than trying to establish their fastballs, and it has yielded very good results. That's the same thing Bailey focused on with his pitchers during his time with the Giants, with similar overall results. On a side, the team with the second lowest four seam usage after the Red Sox is actually the Giants.

 

Fascinating. Credible.

[notin]

Fascinating. Credible.

 

It also explains their interest in Cooper Criswell and maybe explains their lack of interest in Josh Winckowski…

[Dipre]

Fascinating. Credible.

 

One of the sources:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-2024-fastball-approach

[moonslav59]

It also explains their interest in Cooper Criswell and maybe explains their lack of interest in Josh Winckowski…

 

He should have traded Wink, before the story got out.

[mvp 78]

Remember when pretty much the entire site wanted Duran traded? Pepperidge Farm Remembers.

 

People may still get their wish in the next few years. At some point, one of these guys is going to get crowded out somehow.

[mvp 78]

I suggested him for a trade but not because I wanted him gone. His years of control made him a valuable trade chip. I was also told repeatedly he was not one…

 

He was the most valuable MLB guy not named Casas or Bello. Teams want MLB ready players and the Sox didn't have a lot to offer. Also, it would still make sense in the right trade. I don't think anyone is untouchable.

[moonslav59]

People may still get their wish in the next few years. At some point, one of these guys is going to get crowded out somehow.

 

When Abreu comes back (today?) we will start to see an OF squeeze, but only when we face RHPs.

[Dipre]

People may still get their wish in the next few years. At some point, one of these guys is going to get crowded out somehow.

 

By "people" you mean "mainly mvp 78"

[mvp 78]

By "people" you mean "mainly mvp 78"

 

I want a full 26 man roster turnover every 12 months with this current squad, but will settle for Bello wearing a different uniform next season.

[Nick]

I NEVER wanted Duran traded.

 

I do want Yoshida gone. He has no place in the Sox organization. He gives us NOTHING.

[Nick]

I want a full 26 man roster turnover every 12 months with this current squad, but will settle for Bello wearing a different uniform next season.

 

I want a new starting position player each year.

 

First target is a 2B.

 

Next is a SS.

 

Then DH.

[Hugh2]

I want a new starting position player each year.

 

First target is a 2B.

 

Next is a SS.

 

Then DH.

 

Nick Yorke/Marcelo Mayer

[notin]

I want a full 26 man roster turnover every 12 months with this current squad, but will settle for Bello wearing a different uniform next season.

 

I like Bello. He will be fine…

[Nick]

I think Bloom nailed it with our lack of productivity from 2B for some time now. Probably the last time we got good production was when Pedey was healthy.

 

CC Wong 5 yrs counting this year of team control, a keeper. We'll always need two catchers.

1B Casas 5 yrs

2B Valdez 6 years

SS Hamilton 6 years

3B Devers 10 yrs

LF Duran 5 yrs

CF Rafaela 8 yrs

RF Abreu 6 yrs

DH O'Neill 1 yr

 

We're really in good shape going forward with Story coming back (4 yrs + option), Grissom (6 yrs), Romy (5 yrs), Refsnyder (1 plus 1 option) and Reese (2 yrs).

Our lineup starting 2025 should get better. Adding another year of experience to several of our young players, with minor leaguers moving up with another year of experience.

 

Yankees will be forced to add Soto to their payroll going forward, He won't come cheaply.

[mvp 78]

Nick Yorke/Marcelo Mayer

 

Platooning them already???

[mvp 78]

I like Bello. He will be fine…

 

For a 4th starter? Sure.

[moonslav59]

A look at the Sox beyond 2024 (w years of team control: )

 

SP:

5 Bello (+1 opt), Criswell, Murphy, Walter,

4 Crawford, Winkowski

3 Houck,

2 Whitlock

1 Giolito (+1 opt)

Prospects: Fitts, Perales, Mata, Wikelman, Penrod, Dobbins, Gambrell

E R-C, Early, Monegro, Bastardo, Portes, Mullins, Wehunt, Paez

 

RP:

5 Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, I Campbell, Kelly, Booser, Horn, Keller

1 Hendriks (+1 opt), Fulmer

Prospects: Sandlin, Guerrero, Zeferjahn, Hoppe

 

C:

4 Wong

1 McGuire

Prospects: Teel, Jo, Garcia, Hickey, Brannon

 

1B:

4 Casas

Prospects: Jordan, Kavadas (DH), Gasper

 

2B:

5 E Valdez, Grissom

Prospects: K Campbell, Yorke, Paulino, Romero

 

SS:

5 DHam

4 Romy G

3 Story (+1 opt)

Prospects: Mayer, Cespedes, Zanetello

 

3B:

9 Devers

3 Dalbec

Prospects: C Coffey, Meidroth, A Anderson

 

LF:

4 Duran

1 Refsnyder

Prospects: M Lugo, Castro

 

CF:

7 Rafaela

Prospects: Anthony, Bleis

 

RF:

5 Abreu

Prospects: Jh. Garcia, Sogard, N Taylot

 

DH:

3 Yoshida

 

[Elktonnick]

Looking at the upcoming schedule the Sox next 12 games are against sub 500 teams. They are in a great position to make themselves solid contenders for a wild card berth as a result. If they play as well as they should this will put huge pressure on Henry and Breslow to be buyers not sellers at the trade deadline.

[Hugh2]

For a 4th starter? Sure.

 

So far, we hope he can be more. Doesn't have to be an ace.

[Boodgyman5220]

We’ve seen a youthful revolution. I’d potentially be ok with a minor sell off and see if the kids can finish the season. Oneill, Jensen, Martin could nab us a couple solid prospects. O’Neill can be straight replaced with what we already have. Who would step into Martin and Jensen’s spots?

 

Who would we even look into buying? I honestly don’t know who the names could be. The only place I really see for upgrades or replacements worth trading prospects for would be a controllable 1-3 caliber starting pitcher. Maybe a middle infielder rental if and or when Dham and Valdez come back to earth, or a controlled 8/9 reliever. Anybody gonna be available that fits those parameters?

[moonslav59]

We’ve seen a youthful revolution. I’d potentially be ok with a minor sell off and see if the kids can finish the season. Oneill, Jensen, Martin could nab us a couple solid prospects. O’Neill can be straight replaced with what we already have. Who would step into Martin and Jensen’s spots?

 

Who would we even look into buying? I honestly don’t know who the names could be. The only place I really see for upgrades or replacements worth trading prospects for would be a controllable 1-3 caliber starting pitcher. Maybe a middle infielder rental if and or when Dham and Valdez come back to earth, or a controlled 8/9 reliever. Anybody gonna be available that fits those parameters?

 

I just hope we don't trade a top 6 or 7 prospect for any 2 month rental, unless an extension is agreed upon.

[S5Dewey]

I just hope we don't trade a top 6 or 7 prospect for any 2 month rental, unless an extension is agreed upon.

 

I agree completely. To trade a top-10 prospect for a rental would be 'sending good money after bad". IMHO this team is on the cusp of being contenders and parting with a top-10 prospect in the (realistic) hope that the Sox might advance one level higher in the playoffs in '24 would be counter productive to the goal of having a genuine WS contender in'25 or '26.

[moonslav59]

I agree completely. To trade a top-10 prospect for a rental would be 'sending good money after bad". IMHO this team is on the cusp of being contenders and parting with a top-10 prospect in the (realistic) hope that the Sox might advance one level higher in the playoffs would be counter productive to the goal of having a genuine WS contender in'25 or '26.

 

After #6 Cespedes, #7 Fitts and maybe #8 Zanetello, I would not be upset, if we traded Sandlin at #9.

 

I would not trade #10 Campbell for any rental.

 

After 10, I'd be okay.

[Larry Cook]

Looking at the upcoming schedule the Sox next 12 games are against sub 500 teams. They are in a great position to make themselves solid contenders for a wild card berth as a result. If they play as well as they should this will put huge pressure on Henry and Breslow to be buyers not sellers at the trade deadline.

 

Our team seems to play up or down to the calibre of opponent

[Old Red]

Our team seems to play up or down to the calibre of opponent

 

Probably the Red Sox opponent feels the same way when they play the Red Sox.

[Maxbialystock]

Our team seems to play up or down to the calibre of opponent

 

Not so. Sox lost 5 of 6 to a very good Orioles team and took all 3 from a lousy Oakland team. No excuse, I agree, for splitting 4 with a lousy White Sox team, but stuff happens--just like sweeping the Jays, who are 37-40 (.467).

 

To date the Sox pitching has been way more consistent than anyone had any right to expect. That's half the team, 13 pitchers.

 

The other half of the team, the lineup, including both the defense and the hitting, has been nothing if not inconsistent. The Sox team OPS is 5th best in MLB, but their runs scored are 11th. And the defense is too often a train wreck waiting to happen.

[moonslav59]

Left Maine, today. Back to my tiny corner in Texas.

 

I’m off to Spain and Portugal on Monday, for three weeks.

 

I probably will not be posting as much, so many of you will be happy about that.

 

Go SOX!

[Old Red]

Left Maine, today. Back to my tiny corner in Texas.

 

I’m off to Spain and Portugal on Monday, for three weeks.

 

I probably will not be posting as much, so many of you will be happy about that.

 

Go SOX!

 

Good, but it will take some time for the stench to leave So. Maine. STINK-STANK-STUNK.

Edited June 22, 2024 by Old Red