A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Wonder if Teel is in the cards after the trade deadline? not to replace Wong but to platoon him with Wong for a playoff push.

 

Not sure they want to mess with the catching when the pitching has been so good.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it's fair to say they can not.

 

Wong and Refsnyder are literally #1 and #2 on the team in BABIP, probably no one is due for a regression more than them.

 

Refnysder has always hit lefties well, but Wong's batted ball data is horrible, he's probably due for a regerssion more than anyone on this team.

 

Baseball is a strange friggin' game, when a guy with a 138 OPS+ has horrible batted ball data.

[Hugh2]

Baseball is a strange friggin' game, when a guy with a 138 OPS+ has horrible batted ball data.

 

Well he has a career OPS+ of 98

 

I like Wong, I think he's a keeper, I just don't think he's this good. Ride it as long as you can.

[Duran Is The Man]

Baseball is a strange friggin' game, when a guy with a 138 OPS+ has horrible batted ball data.

 

I think this just proves that there are enough stats out there and if you look hard enough, you can find something good or bad about just any player.

[oldtimer]

O'Neill is now 2nd in OPS on the Sox.

 

We have 7 players over .800 and 9 over .700.

 

.929 Devers

.888 O'Neill

.879 Refsnyder

.857 Casas

.850 Wong

.829 Abreu

.809 Duran

 

.776 Duran

(.748 Westbrook w just 18 ABs)

.717 Romy G

 

On a serious rise...

.670 Rafaela (.822 in June)

.668 Valdez (1.199 in June)

.636 Smith (.801 in June)

 

 

Then there is Dalbec at .415. Why do we keep him on the 40 man?

[notin]

Then there is Dalbec at .415. Why do we keep him on the 40 man?

 

Because he knows the code for the locker room keypad. That’s the only reason…

[mvp 78]

Well he has a career OPS+ of 98

 

I like Wong, I think he's a keeper, I just don't think he's this good. Ride it as long as you can.

 

Well, when you cut your k rate from 33% to 18%, you'll see your OPS go up. His BABIP is a little high though. If he can maintain a k rate around 20%, that would be an amazing turn around for his offense. A backup catcher that can give you about 800 OPS is pretty valuable IMO.

[mvp 78]

I think it's fair to say they can not.

 

Wong and Refsnyder are literally #1 and #2 on the team in BABIP, probably no one is due for a regression more than them.

 

Refnysder has always hit lefties well, but Wong's batted ball data is horrible, he's probably due for a regerssion more than anyone on this team.

 

Wonder if Teel is in the cards after the trade deadline? not to replace Wong but to platoon him with Wong for a playoff push.

 

Hell NO!

[mvp 78]

Because he knows the code for the locker room keypad. That’s the only reason…

 

They still have 3.5 months left of CONTROL over him and are determined to use it!

[moonslav59]

Wait.

 

Are people advocating acquiring a RH bat while advocating benching RHH Tyler O’Neill?

 

The point was benching Yoshida for a big RHB. When Abreu returns, we already have Ref & O'Neill with no position to play but DH and back-up OF, so yes, I took the vegasbob point as such.

[moonslav59]

Vegas was talking about a RH DH to replace Yoshida.

 

On paper we're still light on RH offense.

 

But if O'Neill is healthy and Wong, Rafaela and Refsnyder keep hitting like they are, we don't look so bad.

 

When Abreu comes back, I see an all lefty OF, except for scheduled days off, hopeful when we face a LHP. We could play Rafaela at SS, but that does not add a righty bat to the line-up either.

 

Using the DH slot to play O'Neill and Ref seems like the only real option, with a few scattered games in the OF. I hate to think we'd bench even one of these two, and certainly not ever vs a LH SP'er.

 

In theory, getting a big RH bat that plays middle infield makes the most sense, but who would that be? How do we get him? Will he end up doing better than DHam, EValdez and Romy have been doing, so far in June?

 

Now, when O'Neill bolts, this winter, obtaining a RH bat at DH/OF or DH/Corner IF or Middle Infield makes a ton of sense.

[notin]

They still have 3.5 months left of CONTROL over him and are determined to use it!

 

I hear he’s learning to cook pregame meals.

 

You do have to respect his versatility…

[Hugh2]

Well, when you cut your k rate from 33% to 18%, you'll see your OPS go up. His BABIP is a little high though. If he can maintain a k rate around 20%, that would be an amazing turn around for his offense. A backup catcher that can give you about 800 OPS is pretty valuable IMO.

 

A little high? it's like .400

 

His Hard hit rate is in the 24% percentile

Barrel 18%

Average exit Velocity is 23%

 

I like Wong, I like Wong alot, but a regression is coming.

[moonslav59]

I think it's fair to say they can not.

 

Wong and Refsnyder are literally #1 and #2 on the team in BABIP, probably no one is due for a regression more than them.

 

Refnysder has always hit lefties well, but Wong's batted ball data is horrible, he's probably due for a regerssion more than anyone on this team.

 

Wonder if Teel is in the cards after the trade deadline? not to replace Wong but to platoon him with Wong for a playoff push.

 

Wong is a freak. His batting vs RHPs is not fluke. He is a career reverse split batter:

 

.769 v RHPs in 478 PAs, mostly slugging

 

.621 v LHPs in 205 PAs

 

Sidenote: our lefty-batting catcher's splits:

 

2024: .933 v L/.587 v R

2023: .875 v L/ .639 v R

 

We are not looking to get a big RHB at Catcher or corner IF. Our OF is deepe enough to think about trading from strength, if we are going to sell or trade aLH'd OF'er for a pitcher or RHB who plays OF, but we already have O'Neill and Ref in that role, and they are both looking squeezed in OF play. DH has to be a slot for them, and I'd argue, even against RHPs

 

I'm not big on going just with 2.5 month sample sizes of data to fix the line-up configurations, but here are the 2024 L-R splits for the Sox:

 

vs RHPs (usually about 70% of SP'ers are RHPs)

1.001 Devers (FT- always)

.905 Duran (FT)

.895 Abreu (Could be platooned w Ref/O'Neill)

.874 Refsnyder (IMO, he needs to play vs almost all RHPs, until he shows he should not)

.821 Wong (Our catchers are not L-R platooned, but if they were, it would be in reverse)

.817 DHam (Needs to play, unless he earns a benching)

.807 Casas (will be back to FT, upon returning)

.776 EValdez (on fire, right now)

.751 O'Neill (Based on this, he just might have to be benched vs most RHPs, surprisingly)

.729 Yoshida (Can't even beat out LHBs for the DH slot vs RHPs)

 

.670 Romy

.619 Rafaela

.587 McGuire

.568 Smith

 

.501 Dalbec (Proving keeping him, because he bats RH'd is pointless.)

 

.334 Grissom

.310 Westbrook

 

Vs LHPs (Maybe 30% of starts)

 

1.195 O'Neill (has to play 100% of games vs LH'd SP'ers)

1.036 D Smith (reverse split)

.994 Casas (SSS, but is a FT'er)

.958 Westbrook (WOW!)

.904 Wong

.885 Refsnyder (Needs to start every game vs LHPs)

.818 Rafaela

.794 Devers

 

.739 Romy

 

.587 Duran (Do you platoon him over this?)

.572 DHam

.517 Grissom

.503 Yoshida

 

.450 Abreu

.316 Dalbec

.091 Vadlez (should never start vs LHP)

 

Based on these numbers, maybe we see this with 100% healthy players:

 

C: Wong (FT, as much as possible for a catcher)/ McGuire when needed

 

1B: Casas has to go FT

 

2B: Valdez v R/ DHam or Westbrook v L

 

SS: DHam v R/ Romy v L

 

3B: Devers FT

 

LF: Duran v R/ O'Neill or Ref in half the starts vs LHPs

 

CF: Rafaela FT (When he rests, Duran to CF and O'Neill or Ref to LF)

 

RF: Abreu v R/ O'Neill or Ref in half the starts vs LHPs

 

DH: O'Neill or Refsnyder (see LF/RF)

 

There is zero room for Yoshida in any line-up, unless someone gets hurt or starts slumping, badly.

 

There is no room for Dalbec, and I'd take DSmith as the Casas back-up, since we have a back-up 3Bman, anyway.

 

There may be no room for Grissom, but time will tell on that.

[illinoisredsox]

Then there is Dalbec at .415. Why do we keep him on the 40 man?

 

There are a few reasons IMO:

 

1) He’s right handed; with the exception of Gonzalez, all the other alternatives are lefties (and Gonzalez gets hurt a lot, so what does that give you). The obvious counter to this is that doesn’t matter what side of the plate you stand on if you never actually hit the ball.

 

2) He can give you passable defense as a backup at both 3rd and 1st. Note I said passable, not gold glove.

 

3) He has decent speed, so he can serve as a pr if need be.

 

4) He’s cheap. His salary is $760K (MLB minimum is $740K)

 

He has no trade value and he’s not going to be here next year. Let’s face it, we’re talking about the 13th position player and the 25th-26th guy on the roster. Dalbec bring on the team in not going to make or break the season

[moonslav59]

A little high? it's like .400

 

His Hard hit rate is in the 24% percentile

Barrel 18%

Average exit Velocity is 23%

 

I like Wong, I like Wong alot, but a regression is coming.

 

What does it matter? We are not going to get a big RHB to catch for us.

 

The Wong-McGuire tandem is here for 2024 and maybe 2025, too.

 

As long as we have O'Neill and Ref, we don't really need a RHB at DH or OF, unless you want a full platoon for Duran (.587 v L) and Abreu (.450)

 

Career L/R splits:

.578/.802 Duran

.437/.906 Abreu

 

I'd say clear yes on Abreu, but I'm not so sure about benching Duran for 30% of our games. His D and baserunning are important in every game.

 

[moonslav59]

There are a few reasons IMO:

 

1) He’s right handed; with the exception of Gonzalez, all the other alternatives are lefties (and Gonzalez gets hurt a lot, so what does that give you). The obvious counter to this is that doesn’t matter what side of the plate you stand on if you never actually hit the ball.

 

2) He can give you passable defense as a backup at both 3rd and 1st. Note I said passable, not gold glove.

 

3) He has decent speed, so he can serve as a pr if need be.

 

4) He’s cheap. His salary is $760K (MLB minimum is $740K)

 

He has no trade value and he’s not going to be here next year. Let’s face it, we’re talking about the 13th position player and the 25th-26th guy on the roster. Dalbec bring on the team in not going to make or break the season

 

He has really been horrible on D for his MLB career. He looks a little better, this year, in limited playing time.

 

It does not matter if you hit RH'd, if you don't hit the ball.

 

I'll take Smith with his crappy D and reverse splits.

[Hugh2]

What does it matter? We are not going to get a big RHB to catch for us.

 

The Wong-McGuire tandem is here for 2024 and maybe 2025, too.

 

As long as we have O'Neill and Ref, we don't really need a RHB at DH or OF, unless you want a full platoon for Duran (.587 v L) and Abreu (.450)

 

Career L/R splits:

.578/.802 Duran

.437/.906 Abreu

 

I'd say clear yes on Abreu, but I'm not so sure about benching Duran for 30% of our games. His D and baserunning are important in every game.

 

 

I'm not looking to replace Wong, I'm looking to replace McGuire.

[notin]

There are a few reasons IMO:

 

1) He’s right handed; with the exception of Gonzalez, all the other alternatives are lefties (and Gonzalez gets hurt a lot, so what does that give you). The obvious counter to this is that doesn’t matter what side of the plate you stand on if you never actually hit the ball.

 

2) He can give you passable defense as a backup at both 3rd and 1st. Note I said passable, not gold glove.

 

3) He has decent speed, so he can serve as a pr if need be.

 

4) He’s cheap. His salary is $760K (MLB minimum is $740K)

 

He has no trade value and he’s not going to be here next year. Let’s face it, we’re talking about the 13th position player and the 25th-26th guy on the roster. Dalbec bring on the team in not going to make or break the season

 

But now with JD Davis on the waiver wire, what does Dalbec bring that Davis can’t do? (Dalbec is a faster runner.)

 

Davis’ OPS is some .250 points higher than Dalbec’s. Why are the Sox holding on to him when worse teams are DFAing better players at the same position? Boston is probably the only team in MLB that would not have already DFAd Dalbec…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A little high? it's like .400

 

His Hard hit rate is in the 24% percentile

Barrel 18%

Average exit Velocity is 23%

 

I like Wong, I like Wong alot, but a regression is coming.

 

If you look beyond the metrics and just look, you'd see either line drive base-hits over the infield dropping into the outfield or ground balls through the wide open right side -- where second baseman are leaving holes because they're positioned up the middle.

 

Merloni noted the latter just last night. Until opposing defenses make adjustments, there's no reason Wong won't keep taking what they're giving him.

[moonslav59]

I'm not looking to replace Wong, I'm looking to replace McGuire.

 

With the big RHB we need?

 

Wong hits RHPs better than LHPs, so you are looking to add a better platoon catcher?.

 

Do you have someone in mind?

 

Also, I don't know anyone who platoons catchers based on L-R splits.

Edited June 18, 2024 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

But now with JD Davis on the waiver wire, what does Dalbec bring that Davis can’t do? (Dalbec is a faster runner.)

 

Davis’ OPS is some .250 points higher than Dalbec’s. Why are the Sox holding on to him when worse teams are DFAing better players at the same position? Boston is probably the only team in MLB that would not have already DFAd Dalbec…

 

You're saying that Boston is the stupidest team in MLB?

[mvp 78]

When Abreu comes back, I see an all lefty OF, except for scheduled days off, hopeful when we face a LHP. We could play Rafaela at SS, but that does not add a righty bat to the line-up either.

 

That's why you keep Ceddanne in CF, the RHB.

[mvp 78]

A little high? it's like .400

 

His Hard hit rate is in the 24% percentile

Barrel 18%

Average exit Velocity is 23%

 

I like Wong, I like Wong alot, but a regression is coming.

 

His BABIP last season was 340 with a 33% k rate. If he maintained a 340 BABIP with a 18% k rate, he'd still have really good numbers.

[mvp 78]

There are a few reasons IMO:

 

1) He’s right handed; with the exception of Gonzalez, all the other alternatives are lefties (and Gonzalez gets hurt a lot, so what does that give you). The obvious counter to this is that doesn’t matter what side of the plate you stand on if you never actually hit the ball.

 

2) He can give you passable defense as a backup at both 3rd and 1st. Note I said passable, not gold glove.

 

3) He has decent speed, so he can serve as a pr if need be.

 

4) He’s cheap. His salary is $760K (MLB minimum is $740K)

 

He has no trade value and he’s not going to be here next year. Let’s face it, we’re talking about the 13th position player and the 25th-26th guy on the roster. Dalbec bring on the team in not going to make or break the season

 

Sox really don't have a viable backup 3B if Devers goes down aside from Bobby.

[notin]

Sox really don't have a viable backup 3B if Devers goes down aside from Bobby.

 

Romy?

[notin]

You're saying that Boston is the stupidest team in MLB?

 

On all matters relating to Dalbec, it certainly seems so…

[moonslav59]

If you look beyond the metrics and just look, you'd see either line drive base-hits over the infield dropping into the outfield or ground balls through the wide open right side -- where second baseman are leaving holes because they're positioned up the middle.

 

Merloni noted the latter just last night. Until opposing defenses make adjustments, there's no reason Wong won't keep taking what they're giving him.

 

In 683 career PAs, Wong has 15 HRs and 39 2B+3B. His decent .725 catcher OPS is mostly fueled by SLG (.404) not OBP (.321,) but I guess that might be about the norm.

 

I do think he will eventually "regress," but to what? .725 to .750. For a catcher, I'll take it.

 

I don't know what happened to McGuire's bat, but he has done a great job with the staff. CERA:

 

Houck: 1.46 McGuire (37 Inn)/2.33 Wong (54 Inn)

Crawford: 1.61 McGuire (22)/ 4.22 Wong (64)

Pivetta: 1.55 McGuire (29)/ 6.66 Wong (24)

B Bello: 3.86 McGuire (12)/ 5.26 Wong (51)

Criswell: 3.12 McGuire (35)/ 6.23 Wong (17)

 

It's a clean sweep with our SP'ers- some by a heel of a lot.

 

[moonslav59]

That's why you keep Ceddanne in CF, the RHB.

 

Defense. He's hitting better, recently.

 

The tougher decisions are vs LHPs, but yes, if you go just by the batting splits, Ref and O"Neill should play over Rafaela vs RHPs.

 

Someday, Ref might come back down to earth v RHPs, but I do think he should play, if and until he does.

[Bellhorn04]

On all matters relating to Dalbec, it certainly seems so…

 

The improvement in his defense seems to be the thing that's keeping him around. This is the first year his defensive number on FanGraphs is out of the red.