A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Grissom's last 220 MLB PA's per SourestCherryPicking.com:

 

BA .203

OBP .259

SLG .238

OPS .497

HR NIL

[moonslav59]

Grissom's last 220 MLB PA's per SourestCherryPicking.com:

 

BA .203

OBP .259

SLG .238

OPS .497

HR NIL

 

You are getting the hang of it!

 

His numbers are really padded by his .911.

 

Amazingly, he was still at .803 after 148 PAs, which is almost half his career PAs, but that just further highlights just how bad he has been from 2023-2024.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe I haven't seen enough of him, but there's something awkward about Grissom. His swing, his throwing motion -- both look almost too deliberate or methodical...

 

... like he's trying new techniques relayed to him through upstairs analysis... or maybe he's just physically compensating for some undisclosed nagging injury.

 

Either way, Griz doesn't let it fly -- if he was still a draft prospect, scouts may call him too stiff. Bogaerts, whose body type has been compared with Grissom, looked smooth in comparison when starting out.

[notin]

I don't think you're completely getting my position.

 

Of course keeping Sale would have been a gamble - with a big potential payoff like the one we're seeing so far.

 

And what did we gain by passing up that gamble?

 

A 10 million dollar payroll reduction, and a prospect.

 

Not enough, IMHO.

 

My point is the far more likely outcome was another lost season from Sale. If the two outcomes were

 

1. Save $10mill and get an MLB-ready infielder at a position of need, or

2. Spent $27mill on a pitcher who will miss between 25 and 31 of his starts and maybe give you 30 good innings

 

 

Which would you choose? Probability had these as covering 99% of all possible outcomes.

 

Also, while everything around these moves bombed, moving Sale was more than just saving $10mill; they spent that money and then some on a starting pitcher who has thrown over 500 IP in the past 3 seasons. If you do believe the best ability is availability, this would have been considered an upgrade.

 

I mean, if they don’t trade Sale, do you think they still sun Giolito?

[Nick]

CC Wong?

 

Isn’t that the guy from all those Jurassic Park movies?

 

I always put CC for C so my lineup tabs up better......too dumb to find another solution. I'm a lotus 123 guy so my technical skills are very limited.....some of you know what I'm talking about...Remember the day when you used an entire row to put _______ and --------?

[Bellhorn04]

I mean, if they don’t trade Sale, do you think they still sun Giolito?

 

No, but that's part of my issue - I think Breslow had to free up that $10 million to sign Giolito. I think they should have kept Sale and signed Giolito.

[Nick]

still not great. has a few mini hot streaks followed by time off with injuries.

 

But he's always a physical specimen.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe I haven't seen enough of him, but there's something awkward about Grissom. His swing, his throwing motion -- both look almost too deliberate or methodical...

 

... like he's trying new techniques relayed to him through upstairs analysis... or maybe he's just physically compensating for some undisclosed nagging injury.

 

Either way, Griz doesn't let it fly -- if he was still a draft prospect, scouts may call him too stiff. Bogaerts, whose body type has been compared with Grissom, looked smooth in comparison when starting out.

 

To play baseball idiot savant here, that "deliberate" look may be a sign that unlike Mookie Betts, Grissom doesn't have great "fast-twitch muscles" going for him, which may help explain why he hasn't put one over the fence in 220 trips to the plate.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To play baseball idiot savant here, that "deliberate" look may be a sign that unlike Mookie Betts, Grissom doesn't have great "fast-twitch muscles" going for him, which may help explain why he hasn't put one over the fence in 220 trips to the plate.

 

Looking more at the Bogey comp...

 

Xander Minor League stats: 379 G, .297/.373/.493... .866

 

Grissom Minor League stats: 338 G, .320/.408/.475... .883

 

If Griz didn't have some pop, we'd have heard more comparisons to an Arraez-type guy on the way up.

 

(something may be holding him back, besides big league sweepers)

[Randy Red Sox]

mookie suffers a broken hand

[Randy Red Sox]

You are getting the hang of it!

 

His numbers are really padded by his .911.

 

Amazingly, he was still at .803 after 148 PAs, which is almost half his career PAs, but that just further highlights just how bad he has been from 2023-2024.

 

BTW-I think Stroman is showing tonite why I called him a head case. What is that white thing on the back of his head and who wears # O ?

[moonslav59]

BTW-I think Stroman is showing tonite why I called him a head case. What is that white thing on the back of his head and who wears # O ?

 

When you dislike someone, we all know it

[Elktonnick]

I thought I was going to see a baseball game tonight, instead a track meet broke out. Great fun.

[Nick]

To the fan who didn't enjoy the game I'm not sure what to say.

 

We're closer than what we think.

 

This group can be fun to watch.

[sk7326]

To the fan who didn't enjoy the game I'm not sure what to say.

 

We're closer than what we think.

 

This group can be fun to watch.

 

Seeing Rafaela slowly start to put some games together is very encouraging. He is very close to being the sort of hitter he can be (low OBP but good contact with pop)

 

Who would have expected Duran to be on the MVP long list this far in the season? (or any other time) Or for Tanner Houck to be legit in the running for Cy?

 

Nice to see them have a good homestand. The negative vibes around the home games have been rough on the players actually playing.

 

And we can't say enough about how Cora and Bailey have made the pitching staff work.

[moonslav59]

I think we can all agree, our depth and depth to the depth has outperformed everyone's expectations.

 

Houck was apparently the starter added to the rotation to take Gio's place.

Criswell was the back-up to the back-up, taking Whitlock's place.

Martin is on the IL, Wink was demoted and ICampbell struggled out of the gate, yet our pen is top 4 in fWAR.

 

While our 1B depth has been a joke, Smith has been on fire since May 31st.

Romy helped stop the bleeding at SS, then DHam and EValdez, along with Westbrook and some Rafaela at SS have turned the MI into an okay place. (Story and Grissom have done nothing.)

Our OF has been awesome, including the "depth" of Refsnyder & Abreu. The whole OF has a .800 OPS combined.

 

With the farm about to add even more depth, I like the foundation we are setting up.

[moonslav59]

Seeing Rafaela slowly start to put some games together is very encouraging. He is very close to being the sort of hitter he can be (low OBP but good contact with pop)

 

Who would have expected Duran to be on the MVP long list this far in the season? (or any other time) Or for Tanner Houck to be legit in the running for Cy?

 

Nice to see them have a good homestand. The negative vibes around the home games have been rough on the players actually playing.

 

And we can't say enough about how Cora and Bailey have made the pitching staff work.

 

Well said.

 

There is still a good chance we miss the dance, but we have a lot to be optimistic about.

 

We have so many players with 4-6 years of control, many pre-arb going into 2025.

 

Our farm is top 5-10.

 

Our weakest areas for the last 5 years: pitching and defense, now look better/okay (D) or even top tier (SP & RP).

[Duran Is The Man]

To the fan who didn't enjoy the game I'm not sure what to say.

 

We're closer than what we think.

 

This group can be fun to watch.

 

i especially like Duran. probably my favorite on this team. and just about everybody wanted to trade him over the winter. glad Brez didn't.

[Nick]

D Ham leads the team in SB with 18, one ahead of Duran.

 

Shouldn't steals count towards total base?

 

What difference does it make if a player gets a double or a single and a steal? He is counted as a RISP......

 

Duran uses his speed to stretch a single into double.

 

Just love watching D Ham run around the bases.

[Bellhorn04]

D Ham leads the team in SB with 18, one ahead of Duran.

 

Shouldn't steals count towards total base?

 

That's why WAR is a good thing, IMHO. Duran and DHam get a lot of value from the baserunning component.

 

Can't just add steals to total bases without also factoring in the times caught stealing or picked off...it gets complicated.

[Nick]

Suppose Houck continues to pitch well for a forseeable future.

 

I am curious as to what his arbitration numbers add up to before becoming a free agent.

 

Compare that to extending him now.

 

I guess what I am asking for is is it better to just go through the arbitration procees then be the highest bidder for his services knowing a pitcher can break at any time?

 

You know "Just pay the man. Give hime the money in 3 years".

[Nick]

That's why WAR is a good thing, IMHO. Duran and DHam get a lot of value from the baserunning component.

 

Can't just add steals to total bases without also factoring in the times caught stealing or picked off...it gets complicated.

 

Valid....just deduct them from total base for CS and pucked off.

 

Just rambling after going 4-2 and showing off our speed.

Edited June 17, 2024 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I never blasted the Renfroe trade, because the guy was overrated on D, and I just assumed taking back Bradley's contract was the price we had to pay to get two decent prospects.

 

And I did give Bloom credit for getting ahead of the impending new rules regarding pick-offs and pizza boxes for bases -- since Hamilton's speed was the biggest asset in the entire deal.

 

It's cool that it's beginning to pay off.

[Hugh2]

This is the right place to ramble.

 

This team is pretty much in the same place it's been mid year the last few years. I don't expect the results this year to be much different BUT the road ahead probably looks much rosier this year than it did in 2023, 2022.

 

Pitching is good, guys who are performing are generally young and locked up. Our farm is the strongest it's been in almost a decade with a lot of those guys close to MLB ready.

 

They are 3 games out of a wild card, I'm not sure you can sell. You don't have to empty the farm and go big, but you can't sell. I wouldn't mind a lateral move here if a guy with multiple years of control becomes available. For example, sell Pivetta and buy Crochet

 

The Sox have a roster crunch coming up, rule 5 is going to be very interesting next year, so they almost need to trade a few guys down on the farm.

 

Deadline Wish list.

 

Starting pitcher -

RHH bat - SS/OF/DH

high leverage reliever.

 

If you added that to Casas coming back this team could make a run. I don't think they're going to win the world series but they could get into the playoffs, show us they're comitted, and get us excited for 2025.

[Hugh2]

I never blasted the Renfroe trade, because the guy was overrated on D, and I just assumed taking back Bradley's contract was the price we had to pay to get two decent prospects.

 

And I did give Bloom credit for getting ahead of the impending new rules regarding pick-offs and pizza boxes for bases -- since Hamilton's speed was the biggest asset in the entire deal.

 

It's cool that it's beginning to pay off.

 

I remember liking the trade at the time. For buying the prospects, but also because I assumed JBJ would be a defensive 4th OF and the Sox were going to buy an outfielder. Mainly Seiya Suzuki, is the guy I thought would be their target.

 

If we buy Suzuki in 2022, we probably don't end up buying Yoshida in 2023. Here's to hoping Yoshida gets healthy and hits a bit, but I don't thin he'll ever play up to his contract.

[moonslav59]

D Ham leads the team in SB with 18, one ahead of Duran.

 

Shouldn't steals count towards total base?

 

What difference does it make if a player gets a double or a single and a steal? He is counted as a RISP......

 

Duran uses his speed to stretch a single into double.

 

Just love watching D Ham run around the bases.

 

I love SBs, but I do not think a single + SB is equal to a 2B.

 

Also, if SBs count towards TBs, then CS, pick-offs and maye other outs made on the basepaths would need to be subtracted.

[moonslav59]

I never blasted the Renfroe trade, because the guy was overrated on D, and I just assumed taking back Bradley's contract was the price we had to pay to get two decent prospects.

 

And I did give Bloom credit for getting ahead of the impending new rules regarding pick-offs and pizza boxes for bases -- since Hamilton's speed was the biggest asset in the entire deal.

 

It's cool that it's beginning to pay off.

 

They weren't really considered "decent prospects," at the time. Even up to a month ago, nobody expected either to amount to anything. There was even some DFA talk on DHam.

[notin]

They weren't really considered "decent prospects," at the time. Even up to a month ago, nobody expected either to amount to anything. There was even some DFA talk on DHam.

 

To be fair, the talk of DFAing Hamilton was started by me and not by someone with the knowledge about these prospects and why they were chosen.

 

I do think Bloom expected something from them…

Edited June 17, 2024 by notin

[notin]

I love SBs, but I do not think a single + SB is equal to a 2B.

 

It’s not. A single doesn’t have the same impact on existing base runners. And the stolen base is an entirely separate play…

[moonslav59]

This is the right place to ramble.

 

This team is pretty much in the same place it's been mid year the last few years. I don't expect the results this year to be much different BUT the road ahead probably looks much rosier this year than it did in 2023, 2022.

 

Pitching is good, guys who are performing are generally young and locked up. Our farm is the strongest it's been in almost a decade with a lot of those guys close to MLB ready.

 

They are 3 games out of a wild card, I'm not sure you can sell. You don't have to empty the farm and go big, but you can't sell. I wouldn't mind a lateral move here if a guy with multiple years of control becomes available. For example, sell Pivetta and buy Crochet

 

The Sox have a roster crunch coming up, rule 5 is going to be very interesting next year, so they almost need to trade a few guys down on the farm.

 

Deadline Wish list.

 

Starting pitcher -

RHH bat - SS/OF/DH

high leverage reliever.

 

If you added that to Casas coming back this team could make a run. I don't think they're going to win the world series but they could get into the playoffs, show us they're committed, and get us excited for 2025.

 

I'm not sure sure there will be a roster crunch, unless we add 6 or 7 free agents, this winter.

 

To me, there may be 5-6 needs (3-4 major) to fill the gaps in 2025, and we lose 7 players to free agency:

Pivetta

Jansen

Martin

O'Neill

Anderson

D Smith

B Keller

Middle

Let's say we fill 5 of them with free agents of trades that (net) add numbers to the 40: SP2, Closer, Middle Infielder, Big RHB and SP depth. That leaves 2 slots to fill with Hendriks & Fulmer.

 

Then, we look to add x amount of Rule 5 players before and trades, non tenders or DFA's happen.

 

Would anybody cry if we did not bring any of these guys back?

Dalbec

B Horn

Walter

Uwasawa

or maybe even Murphy, Wikelman and one from Westbrook or Romy G could be traded for a non-40 prospect(s.)

 

We should have room for 5-7 Rule 5 additions, and remember, Anthony, Teel & Mayer are not eligible for Rule 5, this December, so we can wait to add them to the 40, until the day the are called up.

 

Here is a shortened list of notable players that are Rule 5 eligible this winter:

 

Category A

 

Category A (Maybe/Likely)

Richard Fitts

Hunter Dobbins

Luis Guerrero

Jh Garcia

Matthew Lugo

Nick Yorke

Angel Bastardo

 

Category B (Long shots)

Blaze Jordan

Nathan Hickey

Allan Castro

E Paulino

Y Monegro

R Zeferjahn

Nick Sogard

C Troye

Category C (Probably zero chance)

Alex Binelas

Theo Denlinger

Grant Gambrell

Niko Kavadas

CJ Liu

Corey Rosier

Noah Song

 

I always think more might be added than end up being added, and there is usually one surprise addition, so who knows.

 

I think there will not be a crunch, unless we add 6-7 new players to the 40, beyond Rule 5.