A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

So you honestly believe they're going to be 41-46 in their last 87?

 

I would not predict that, unless we sell, but it certainly is possible, when you figure we have a lot games left vs NYY, BAL and other good teams. I wonder if HOU catches on fire, just as we start to play them.

 

Our last 22 games of '24:

 

3 v BAL

4 @ NYY

3 @TBR

3 v MIN

3 @ TOR (last year, we won the first 7 and lost the last 8 w TOR)

3 v TBR

[Bellhorn04]

Well, I do like the fact we had a run differential of +17 in these last 9 games against the Phils, Yanks and Jays.

[mvp 78]

So you honestly believe they're going to be 41-46 in their last 87?

 

No, I think they'll be 38-49.

[Bellhorn04]

I would not predict that, unless we sell, but it certainly is possible, when you figure we have a lot games left vs NYY, BAL and other good teams. I wonder if HOU catches on fire, just as we start to play them.

 

Our last 22 games of '24:

 

3 v BAL

4 @ NYY

3 @TBR

3 v MIN

3 @ TOR (last year, we won the first 7 and lost the last 8 w TOR)

3 v TBR

 

Anything is possible in baseball.

 

I think we really saw some reasons for optimism in this last stretch of 9 games. The offense took off while the pitching stayed solid. I'm not sure how the offense broke out the way it did, but maybe it's some good analytics/coaching going on behind the scenes. Plus O'Neill being healthy etc.

[Bellhorn04]

No, I think they'll be 38-49.

 

Never Trust a Prankster.

[moonslav59]

Anything is possible in baseball.

 

I think we really saw some reasons for optimism in this last stretch of 9 games. The offense took off while the pitching stayed solid. I'm not sure how the offense broke out the way it did, but maybe it's some good analytics/coaching going on behind the scenes. Plus O'Neill being healthy etc.

 

Personally, I think the pitching was overperforming, the batting was underperforming and the defense has done as expected, but just not in a balanced way. (The first month was worse than they are, and maybe now they are around 20th.

[Old Red]

Likely they start the season with a 6 man rotation IMO. Whitlock was mowing down hitters in the Spring. Hard to move that to the pen.

 

It was just my opinion. I think the rotation was pretty much all set, before Gio went down, and I don’t really think ST really decided anything other than to see who was healthy.

[moonslav59]

I was kind of surprised how badly our O was doing over the first 2 months. I knew the loss of Turner, and to some extent Dugo & Duvall would hurt, but I felt upticks from some younger players might keep us top 8-10ish.

[Old Red]

Well, I do like the fact we had a run differential of +17 in these last 9 games against the Phils, Yanks and Jays.

 

The Red Sox did that against some pretty good pitching numbers too, which was good to see.

[moonslav59]

@SoxNotes

MLB’s best records since May 19:

 

1. Orioles 20-10, .667

2. Yankees 19-10, .655

3. Guardians 16-9, .640

4. Mariners 19-11, .633

5. RED SOX 18-11, .621

 

In that time, the Sox lead MLB in AVG (.273) and OBP (.342) and rank 2nd in runs per game (5.3), OPS (.786), and steals (41).

 

Only the last 7 days count, because that's a "week."

[Duran Is The Man]

The P theory also supports your skepticism on Cora being "amazing."

 

and that the s***** defense is killing them.

[Maxbialystock]

The Red Sox did that against some pretty good pitching numbers too, which was good to see.

 

A key point. Baseball is nothing if not unpredictable, but those games were very encouraging. Plus Abreu and and Casas will be back soon.

[mvp 78]

Never Trust a Prankster.

 

Better a prankster than a wankster.

[mvp 78]

Only the last 7 days count, because that's a "week."

 

Classic wankster posting.

[moonslav59]

Classic wankster posting.

 

Better to just leave those to you: the MVP of Wankster.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm beginning to think that on this thread pessimistic is synonymous with realistic. It you are high on the Sox, you must be high on something else--bourbon, whatever.

 

Well, count me out of the pessimism school, and here's why.

 

The 9 latest games: 3 vs. the best AL Team, 3 vs. the best NL Team, and 3 vs. the 47% winning Jays--and the Sox won 7 of them with good enough pitching and surprisingly good hitting.

 

Season to date--and we are at 75 games, almost at 81, which is half the season--the Sox team ERA, 3.45, is 5th best in MLB. The 2018 Sox finished at 8th, ERA 3.75.

 

The hitting is not nearly as good as 2018, which was 1st in runs scored and OPS. However, the 2024 Sox are 9th in runs scored and 5th in OPS, and I think they can get better--barring further key injuries--because two of their top OPS guys, Casas @ .857 and Abreu @ .829--missed those 9 games. Plus there are really only three experienced hitters--Devers, O'Neill, and Refsnyder--on the active roster. Wong, Casas, Abreu, Duran, Rafaela, Hamilton, Valdez, and Gonzalez are still learning. That's a double-edged sword, I know, but I take those 9 games in June as being very timely in terms of the future. Old Julius said it best: I came, I saw, I conquered. He also said Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres, which freely translated says there are 3 wild card slots in the AL.

 

Defense still stinks--well, the infield, anyway--but maybe with fewer unearned runs. We'll see. And a tiny counterbalance is that the baserunning adds to the offense to help compensate for those unearned runs (also earned runs that weren't).

 

I think the Sox need 92 wins to make the postseason. How doable is that? They need to play 60% ball the rest of the way. So far they are winning at a 53% rate, so the improvement needs to be 7%. Piece of cake--if the 53% is valid and not, as too many on here seem to think, blind stupid luck. To remind: if it's luck, it's almost half a season of luck.

Edited June 20, 2024 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Plus there are really only three experienced hitters--Devers, O'Neill, and Refsnyder--on the active roster. Wong, Abreu, Duran, Rafaela, Hamilton, Valdez, and Gonzalez are still learning.

 

Duran turns 28, soon. He's been in MLB since 2021 and has over 1,000 PAs. He is still kinda "learning," but only because he's tweaked his batting approach so many times, my head is spinning.

 

Wong is already 28, which many view as the start of prime. He's also been in MLB, since 2021, but did not play much in MLB is '21 and '22. He's got 683 career PAs, so I agree he is still learning, but I think he is close to being all leanded-did-did-did out on batting (not fielding, of course.)

 

Reese has been around since 2018, but I can understand not calling him a "batter." Same with Dalbec.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Duran turns 28, soon. He's been in MLB since 2021 and has over 1,000 PAs. He is still kinda "learning," but only because he's tweaked his batting approach so many times, my head is spinning.

 

Wong is already 28, which many view as the start of prime. He's also been in MLB, since 2021, but did not play much in MLB is '21 and '22. He's got 683 career PAs, so I agree he is still learning, but I think he is close to being all leanded-did-did-did out on batting (not fielding, of course.)

 

Reese has been around since 2018, but I can understand not calling him a "batter." Same with Dalbec.

 

 

Good points. Duran may be 28, but 2023 was his first meaningful year in MLB. Same goes for Wong, who blossomed last year and played 126 games vs 33 total in 2021 and 2022.

[moonslav59]

Good points. Duran may be 28, but 2023 was his first meaningful year in MLB. Same goes for Wong, who blossomed last year and played 126 games vs 33 total in 2021 and 2022.

 

I do think he can still improve at bat. Many get better after 28.

 

I just don't view him as inexperienced.

[Maxbialystock]

I do think he can still improve at bat. Many get better after 28.

 

I just don't view him as inexperienced.

 

Fine with me. How's Maine? Hot like the rest of us?

[moonslav59]

Fine with me. How's Maine? Hot like the rest of us?

 

It just stormed, followed by 75 degrees

 

High of 67 for Saturday

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs Playoff Chances:

%

99.8 NYY

98.4 BAL

86.5 SEA

85.8 CLE

71.7 MIN

43.6 KCR

36.3 BOS

34.0 HOU

16.3 TBR

10.5 TEX

9.8 TOR

 

8 teams over 33%

8 teams over 17%

11 teams basically over 10%

 

The NL is wide open, despite the top 4 being over 85%

 

99.6 PHI

98.9 LAD

93.6 ATL

85.9 MIL

 

38.7 SDP

36.2 AZ

29.6 SFG

29.6 STL

28.8 NYM

25.5 CHC

16.4 CIN

14.4 PIT

 

10 teams over 25%

12 over 14%

 

23 out of 30 teams have a 10% or better chance at making the playoffs! Baseball teams are stronger than ever!!! (LOL)

20 teams have over a 14% chance

18 teams over 25%

16 teams over 30% (actually 29.6%)

Edited June 20, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

1.75 Ranger Suarez

1.89 Shota Imanaga

2.14 Corbin Burnes

2.14 Tanner Houck

2.42 Seth Lugo (also leads in IP by 5)

2.43 Ronel Blanco

2.48 T Anderson

2.50 T Skubal

2.75 J Assad

2.82 J Hicks

2.84 Z Wheeler

2.93 L Gilbert

2.95 S Gray

2.98 C Sale

2.99 L Webb

3.00 T Glasnow

3.01 J Flaherty

3.04 G Stone

3.08 M Stroman

 

[moonslav59]

Sox RP'ers OPS Against

.464 Uwasawa (only 16 PAs)

.470 Z Kelly (almost as many PAs as Jansen)/.250 as SP in 8 PAs

.499 Jansen

.556 Bernardino/.384 as SP in 11 PAs

.575 Slaten (most PAs Against at 151)

.623 Anderson (2nd most PAs)

.634 Keller

.654 Booser

.714 Martin

 

As SP'ers

.528 Houck

.616 Whitlock (75 PAs)

.620 Wink (41)

.656 Crawford

.708 Criswell

.719 Pivetta

.766 Bello

 

[moonslav59]

OPS Last 4 weeks

1.156 Valdez (1.066 last 14 days)

.940 O'Neill (1.120)

.889 Devers (.728)

.880 Rafaela (1.086)

.841 DHam (.844)

.837 Duran (.986)

.792 D Smith (.710)

.784 Wong (.917)

.780 Refsnyder (.725)

.765 Abreu (N/A)

[Dipre]

Remember when pretty much the entire site wanted Duran traded? Pepperidge Farm Remembers.

[moonslav59]

Remember when pretty much the entire site wanted Duran traded? Pepperidge Farm Remembers.

 

We once had a guy who wanted 36 out of the 40 gone.

[moonslav59]

Sox fWAR and Ranking by Positions:

 

2nd Pitching at 10.7 (4th as SP/3rd as RP)

2nd LF 2.7 (Duran Da Man)

4th RF 2.6

6th Catcher 2.1

8th CF 1.6

 

14th 3B 1.2

17th SS 1.2 (Surprisingly not bottom 5-10)

19th 1B 0.2 (Casas should help, when he returns.)

 

23rd DH -0.4

30th 2B (How much longer can we be the worst, here?)

 

[notin]

Remember when pretty much the entire site wanted Duran traded? Pepperidge Farm Remembers.

 

I suggested him for a trade but not because I wanted him gone. His years of control made him a valuable trade chip. I was also told repeatedly he was not one…

[moonslav59]

Nobody is saying out pitching will continue doing this well, all year, but we are on pace for a 23.1 fWAR in pitching.

 

In JH's era, here is how that would rank:

 

23.2 2017

23.1 2024 projected

21.5 2003

20.7 2004

20.3 2021

18.8 2016

18.5 2018 & 2009

18.4 2007 & 2008

16.5 2019

15.8 2013

15.7 2010

 

Our 10.7 current fWAR is already higher than

10.6 2024

10.2 2022

6.4 2012

0.1 2020 (short season)