A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

This really leans toward plain old ********, moon.

 

He did not look great to end the 2023 season. He looked great for 11 games in the middle of a season where he still missed over 1/3 of the season. To me this sugar coating of 2023 is the BS.

 

BTW, Paxton had a very similar stretch. He has never been great like Sale but he pitched very well in 2023, too.

[moonslav59]

Two of the best stretches of Sox pitching in 2023:

 

11 GS

3.02 ERA/ 3.09 FIP Sale

 

13 GS

2.99/ 3.79 Paxton

 

10 GS

2.89/3.09 Paxton

[Bellhorn04]

He did not look great to end the 2023 season. He looked great for 11 games in the middle of a season where he still missed over 1/3 of the season. To me this sugar coating of 2023 is the BS.

 

BTW, Paxton had a very similar stretch. He has never been great like Sale but he pitched very well in 2023, too.

 

You're cherry-picking Sale's season instead of looking at the total data the way we're supposed to. He probably had some rustiness at the start and fatigue at the end. His total numbers were very good, end of story.

 

And I think you're wrong that no one would have taken Paxton back on a modest deal like the one he signed.

[Bellhorn04]

Two of the best stretches of Sox pitching in 2023:

 

11 GS

3.02 ERA/ 3.09 FIP Sale

 

13 GS

2.99/ 3.79 Paxton

 

You can do just about anything when you start chopping up the numbers to suit your bias.

[moonslav59]

You can do just about anything when you start chopping up the numbers to suit your bias.

 

I dont have a bias on Sale. I love the guy.

 

I don’t think anyone has high expectations for him in 2024.

 

Higher than other years, yes, but that is not saying much.

 

We needed a 2Bman. Maybe we chose wrongly.

 

We need dependable and durable pitchers after years of watching most of our starters spend time on the IL or suck when they weren’t. We chose wrongly on Gio.

We messed up on timing with Sale, Gio and most of our recent SP additions over the last 5 years, including the Sale extension, which was being widely bashed for 3 years.

 

Nobody wanted Sale extended before the trade. Now we look “ridiculous” for signing Gio instead of extending Sale?

 

Sorry but I think that is more BS and biased towards hindsight than my data digs.

 

Okay. Nobody wanted Paxton, but that was not my point. Nobody wanted Sale either at anything more than what ATL offered us, so the Paxton response is pointless.

[notin]

That's simply wrong, off the charts wrong in fact. His fWAR was always very good for the innings he pitched.

 

Was it? Because his fWAR for his IP was very similar to that of Steve Matz and Andrew Abbott…

[Bellhorn04]

Was it? Because his fWAR for his IP was very similar to that of Steve Matz and Andrew Abbott…

 

Show your work, please.

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody wanted Sale extended before the trade. Now we look “ridiculous” for signing Gio instead of extending Sale?

 

Not wanting to extend Sale is a total strawman. It's got nothing to do with what I'm saying. I've tried to address that point several times but you just ignore it.

[notin]

Show your work, please.

 

Fangraphs leader board for 2023.

 

Sale -102.2 IP 2.1 fWAR

Matz - 105 IP 2.0 fWAR

Abbott - 109 IP 2.2 fWAR

[Bellhorn04]

Fangraphs leader board for 2023.

 

Sale -102.2 IP 2.1 fWAR

Matz - 105 IP 2.0 fWAR

Abbott - 109 IP 2.2 fWAR

 

OK, they all pitched well. That would be 3+ WAR for 150 innings, 3.5+ for 175 innings.

 

What else is there to say about it?

[moonslav59]

Not wanting to extend Sale is a total strawman. It's got nothing to do with what I'm saying. I've tried to address that point several times but you just ignore it.

 

I think it does show the state of mind most Sox fans had on Sale, last December.

 

You comparing the ATL extension to the contract with Gio mad it relevant, because the Gio signing happened before Sale trade. The results of 2024 changed many minds.

 

Of course, the main feeling was we need SP'ers, and any trade of one was enough to draw suspicion, but one of the main beefs was that we had no SP'ers we could rely on for even taking the ball 25-28 times, let alone 33. We had been signing guys like Kluber, Wacha, Hill and Richards for way too long. While Gio had too many questions for my liking, durability was not a major concern with him.

 

It made some sense to switch them out and add a highly praised young 2Bman in the process.

 

I'm fine with anyone who disliked the Sale trade. I did at first, too. The only issue I have with what you have been saying is that there was "no reason" for the trade.

 

While the "reasons" collapsed when Gio went on the IL and Grissom came back from it and sucked, there were legit reasons, at the time.

[moonslav59]

OK, they all pitched well. That would be 3+ WAR for 150 innings, 3.5+ for 175 innings.

 

What else is there to say about it?

 

Why expect 150 or 175?

[Bellhorn04]

Why expect 150 or 175?

 

Because notin said "fWAR for his IP".

 

An fWAR of 2 for 100 innings means you pitched very well. I was just extrapolating to show what that would be for a full season.

[vjcsmoke]

Well the Yankees embarrassed us 8-1. They made all the right moves in the offseason while the Red Sox acted like clowns under clown ownership.

 

We're not talentless but we're clearly outclassed. I don't expect this series to be pretty.

[Old Red]

I dont have a bias on Sale. I love the guy.

 

I don’t think anyone has high expectations for him in 2024.

 

Higher than other years, yes, but that is not saying much.

 

We needed a 2Bman. Maybe we chose wrongly.

 

We need dependable and durable pitchers after years of watching most of our starters spend time on the IL or suck when they weren’t. We chose wrongly on Gio.

We messed up on timing with Sale, Gio and most of our recent SP additions over the last 5 years, including the Sale extension, which was being widely bashed for 3 years.

 

Nobody wanted Sale extended before the trade. Now we look “ridiculous” for signing Gio instead of extending Sale?

 

Sorry but I think that is more BS and biased towards hindsight than my data digs.

 

Okay. Nobody wanted Paxton, but that was not my point. Nobody wanted Sale either at anything more than what ATL offered us, so the Paxton response is pointless.

 

It’s costing the Red Sox more money to have signed Gio, and still shell out $17M for Sale than it would have to just kept Sale. Gio was just a batting practice pitcher last year for HR derby.

[Old Red]

So you’re rankled about paying Sale $17mill to pitch elsewhere? I was frustrated beyond belief about the Sox paying him $112 mill to throw 140 innings over a 4 year stretch.

 

And the popular chant has been for people to say “I knew he was going to come back at full strength,” like it was so obvious. The man didn’t pitch this well in 2019!! He hasn’t pitched like this since 2018, and I challenge anyone on these boards to name one other pitcher putting up the same MLB numbers today he did six years ago. This re-suregence is either unexpected bad luck (for Boston, not Chris) or an unsustainable hot streak. Not saying Sale won’t have a good year, just saying anyone who expected this from him is either very naive or a liar…

 

I called it when Sale got traded that I thought he was going to stay healthy, and have a good year for the Braves. Not that hard really.🤫

[Old Red]

Didn’t know there was such a thing as the Fun Police.

 

To me, this team is more fun to watch than the 22 and 23 teams. It sucks watching my team lose, and I went through 3 decades of never seeing a Sox ring, but there was a lot of fun things going on those years, too.

 

You can choose to not see any fun.

 

I don’t see the need in criticizing fans for enjoying themselves as best they can through some lean years, but to each his own.

Wha, wha, wha. Staying around the 500 mark, give, or take a few wins, or losses is still a lean year, which makes it 3 years in a row. Wasting 3 years hoping that things will get better doesn’t do it for me. You may enjoy Abreu’s play in RF, but he doesn’t compare to Mookie, and that’s who should be out there, so Abreu just doesn’t do it for me. You may see 500 as the glass half full, and some may see it as half empty. You cry about criticizing fans for enjoying themselves when you have criticized fans more than anyone for not seeing it your way. Does haters, Bashers, and disdainers ring a bell? It should, because you have rang that bell more than anyone.

[Duran Is The Man]

Sales 2023 season:

5.13 FIP first 5 starts

4.36 FIP last 4 starts

11 very good starts in the middle.

 

While way more encouraging than 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, I don’t recall many feeling all that great about his future.

 

Hell Paxton had a nice 11 game stretch in 2023, too. Nobody wanted him back.

 

now do Gio's starts last year.

[Duran Is The Man]

It’s costing the Red Sox more money to have signed Gio, and still shell out $17M for Sale than it would have to just kept Sale. Gio was just a batting practice pitcher last year for HR derby.

 

yep.

[notin]

I called it when Sale got traded that I thought he was going to stay healthy, and have a good year for the Braves. Not that hard really.

 

Really?

 

I recall you said you were not sad to see Sale go - odd thing to say if you thought he was going to be healthy…

 

Post 15

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20836-Chris-Sale-traded-to-Braves

Edited June 16, 2024 by notin

[Hugh2]

now do Gio's starts last year.

 

Well, if you go before the all star break he looked good

[Old Red]

Really?

 

I recall you said you were not sad to see Sale go - odd thing to say if you thought he was going to be healthy…

 

Post 15

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20836-Chris-Sale-traded-to-Braves

 

I was not sad to see Sale get traded, but NEVER liked the $17M the Sox gave Atlanta. Post 333 on the Sale thread was one place I mentioned I thought Sale would stay healthy, and have a good year for the Braves, but it wasn’t the original post I made on Sale staying healthy.

[Duran Is The Man]

Well, if you go before the all star break he looked good

 

and dog s*** after the AS break.

[Old Red]

and dog s*** after the AS break.

 

True, and unless there is an injury it tells more to me how you finish a season than how you start one. Maybe his arm was going then.

[Hugh2]

True, and unless there is an injury it tells more to me how you finish a season than how you start one. Maybe his arm was going then.

 

Before last season Giolito was historically a better second half pitcher. After 8 seasons that tells me maybe something else was going on.

[moonslav59]

now do Gio's starts last year.

 

I don't have to. I did not like signing him, but understood the supposed durability aspect of it.

[moonslav59]

I know the success rate of many of the biggest signings, every year, is not that great, but we have been over the top atrocious.

 

Back when we were signing just $5-10M/ 1 year SP'ers, I argued we were "getting what we paid for" to some extent, but even then, the two $10M guys really bombed, and we did better with $5M Hill and $7M Wacha. Then, we finally "splurge" (yea, right) on Gio and immediately get bonked on the head.

 

Anyway you slice it, if we can't start hitting on some signings, we'll never pick up the pace on the already expected improvement plan.

 

The Grissom trade sure looks like a bust, but he has years to prove us wrong.

The Dugo trade looks better to the Yanks, right now, but I like having Weissert and Fitts for 10+ yrs vs 1 of Dugo in a crowded OF while in Cora's doghouse.

The ICampbell trade might end up being a steal.

 

The best moves by Brez, so far, looks like the Slaten & O'Neill trades and Criswell signing.

[moonslav59]

We are currently 36-35 with a "Pythagorean" W-L at 39-32.

 

It looks, so far, like progress has been slow, especially after the hopes 2021 brought us. Nobody expected everything to go right, this year, and we've certainly had our fair share of key players being on the IL, but a lot has gone right and bodes well for our future success.

 

We still have some gaps, and losing Pivetta (assuming no extension or re-signing,) Jansen, O'Neill and Martin will hurt, but I think we have found out a few things that are on the bright side.

 

Our rotation looks better than anyone expected, and that was considered our weakest link.

Our OF looks solid on O and D and depth.

Devers is having his best OPS year and seems to be making less mistakes on D.

Our catching tandem in in the top tier.

Our pen has been a top 5-10 pen, so far.

 

We really have 3-4 major need areas, besides Casas staying healthy for next year:

SP

SS/2B

RHB

Closer

 

We can't count on Gio (SP2,) Story (SS) & DHam/Grissom (2B), Hendriks (closer) and Ref (as our top RHB.)

 

The rest seems pretty solid and pretty deep.

[Bellhorn04]

I know the success rate of many of the biggest signings, every year, is not that great, but we have been over the top atrocious.

 

Back when we were signing just $5-10M/ 1 year SP'ers, I argued we were "getting what we paid for" to some extent, but even then, the two $10M guys really bombed, and we did better with $5M Hill and $7M Wacha. Then, we finally "splurge" (yea, right) on Gio and immediately get bonked on the head.

 

Anyway you slice it, if we can't start hitting on some signings, we'll never pick up the pace on the already expected improvement plan.

 

The Grissom trade sure looks like a bust, but he has years to prove us wrong.

The Dugo trade looks better to the Yanks, right now, but I like having Weissert and Fitts for 10+ yrs vs 1 of Dugo in a crowded OF while in Cora's doghouse.

The ICampbell trade might end up being a steal.

 

The best moves by Brez, so far, looks like the Slaten & O'Neill trades and Criswell signing.

 

I also like the "future signings" of Hendriks and Fulmer.

 

And his dumpster dive signings of Booser, who has been pretty damn good, and Anderson and Keller, who have been adequate innings chewers.

 

And with no Breslow we might have no Bailey.

 

I'm not down on Breslow at all, and as I much as I go on about the Sale trade, I suspect that had a lot to do with making everything fit into the tight budget he was so rudely given.

[Bellhorn04]

I also think Mr. Alex Cora is doing a sensational job this year. It would be a feel-good story if they announced an extension for him.