A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[dgalehouse]

The Sox got slapped around by the Yankees last night. They are now 14 games behind them. They continue to play poor fundamental baseball. Screw up a simple rundown play. Can't catch an easy toss to first, etc. Yet we still have people saying they are " fun to watch." We have a twisted sense of what is fun.

[notin]

Meh. I disagree about Grissom, but you could be right, and I entirely agree 87 AB's ain't much. Pedroia had more than that when he stunk early his first full season--the same year he was voted ROY.

 

What rankles me is paying Sale's salary, $17M, while he leads the Braves, while also paying Giolito $38M for one season (next season).

 

Little wonder John Henry hates shelling out big bucks. This year, with just one exception--Devers--his best pitchers and hitters are bargain basement types.

 

 

So you’re rankled about paying Sale $17mill to pitch elsewhere? I was frustrated beyond belief about the Sox paying him $112 mill to throw 140 innings over a 4 year stretch.

 

And the popular chant has been for people to say “I knew he was going to come back at full strength,” like it was so obvious. The man didn’t pitch this well in 2019!! He hasn’t pitched like this since 2018, and I challenge anyone on these boards to name one other pitcher putting up the same MLB numbers today he did six years ago. This re-suregence is either unexpected bad luck (for Boston, not Chris) or an unsustainable hot streak. Not saying Sale won’t have a good year, just saying anyone who expected this from him is either very naive or a liar…

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox got slapped around by the Yankees last night. They are now 14 games behind them. They continue to play poor fundamental baseball. Screw up a simple rundown play. Can't catch an easy toss to first, etc. Yet we still have people saying they are " fun to watch." We have a twisted sense of what is fun.

 

I agree, Denny. Being 14 games behind the Yanks at this point SHOULD BE depressing.

 

Times have changed in some ways.

[notin]

Grissom has gone a long long time without hitting a home run against a major league pitcher, that much is not in dispute. And 1 EBH in 87 PA's is incredibly feeble.

 

I think he's a bust. If he proves me wrong I'll have some crow and fries.

 

Well, right now he’s at about 200 ABs without a home run. However, if there is anything to his flu/weight loss, the last 87 are understandable. I do have my doubts about the impact of his flu/weight loss, given how he put up some quality numbers in AAA. Although that was only 9 games…

[Bellhorn04]

So you’re rankled about paying Sale $17mill to pitch elsewhere? I was frustrated beyond belief about the Sox paying him $112 mill to throw 140 innings over a 4 year stretch.

 

And the popular chant has been for people to say “I knew he was going to come back at full strength,” like it was so obvious. The man didn’t pitch this well in 2019!! He hasn’t pitched like this since 2018, and I challenge anyone on these boards to name one other pitcher putting up the same MLB numbers today he did six years ago. This re-suregence is either unexpected bad luck (for Boston, not Chris) or an unsustainable hot streak. Not saying Sale won’t have a good year, just saying anyone who expected this from him is either very naive or a liar…

 

It's neither. I didn't "expect" it, but I thought there was a decent chance of it because he finished last year healthy and reasonably effective. TJ surgery is incredibly common now, and some of Sale's injuries were s*** luck. And his attitude never wavered. I thought he might be due for some better luck.

 

I'll say it again - there was no real reason to make this trade. We got another middle infield prospect out of it. Big deal.

 

It was another mid-market type move.

[Bellhorn04]

I perfectly understand that a lot of Sox fans were fed up with Sale and happy to see him go.

 

But the guys that run the team aren't supposed to think like the fans.

[Bellhorn04]

And on the face of it, Giolito was an extremely risky investment of $38 million after his disastrous finish to 2023.

 

It's hilarious that the Braves are potentially getting 3 years of Sale for the same net cost as the Sox are paying for potentially 1 year of Giolito.

[notin]

It's neither. I didn't "expect" it, but I thought there was a decent chance of it because he finished last year healthy and reasonably effective. TJ surgery is incredibly common now, and some of Sale's injuries were s*** luck. And his attitude never wavered. I thought he might be due for some better luck.

 

I'll say it again - there was no real reason to make this trade. We got another middle infield prospect out of it. Big deal.

 

It was another mid-market type move.

 

Finishing the previous year for 43 innings was one thing. But like I said, he’s pitching like he did SIX YEARS AGO! Know who else is? Nobody! Especially nobody at age 35!

[notin]

And on the face of it, Giolito was an extremely risky investment of $38 million after his disastrous finish to 2023.

 

It's hilarious that the Braves are potentially getting 3 years of Sale for the same net cost as the Sox are paying for potentially 1 year of Giolito.

 

“Potentially” is the big word there.

 

And how is the pitcher averaging 170 IP for the last 3 seasons riskier than the pitcher averaging 35 IP per year?

Edited June 15, 2024 by notin

[notin]

I perfectly understand that a lot of Sox fans were fed up with Sale and happy to see him go.

 

But the guys that run the team aren't supposed to think like the fans.

 

They don’t.

 

I’m sure they were much more frustrated with Sale than we have been.

 

I don’t like how this trade has turned out, but I don’t blame the Sox for 1) unloading Sale plus part of his contract for 2) a prospect they liked who played a position of need and 3) replacing Sale with a much more durable solution…

[Old Red]

The Sox got slapped around by the Yankees last night. They are now 14 games behind them. They continue to play poor fundamental baseball. Screw up a simple rundown play. Can't catch an easy toss to first, etc. Yet we still have people saying they are " fun to watch." We have a twisted sense of what is fun.

 

Agree, and to play BAD fundamental baseball for three years now in a row is a bigger reason of why the record has been what it has then selling players off. I guess some like watching Little League baseball. I do to, but not at the Major League level.🤭🙈

[moonslav59]

It's neither. I didn't "expect" it, but I thought there was a decent chance of it because he finished last year healthy and reasonably effective. TJ surgery is incredibly common now, and some of Sale's injuries were s*** luck. And his attitude never wavered. I thought he might be due for some better luck.

 

I'll say it again - there was no real reason to make this trade. We got another middle infield prospect out of it. Big deal.

 

It was another mid-market type move.

 

Our 2B position has been in shambles for years. Clearly, there was a reason to try for a decent addition at 2B.

 

It didn’t work out, but the reason was there.

 

Sadly, saving money to help pay for additions was another reason that happened to not work out, either..

[moonslav59]

I perfectly understand that a lot of Sox fans were fed up with Sale and happy to see him go.

 

But the guys that run the team aren't supposed to think like the fans.

 

I’m not sure all that many were “happy.” I did not like the trade, at first, but part of the reason I came to think it was okay was that I thought we’d spend what we saved and that Grissom would eventually grow into a decent 2Bman and solve a years long problem there at a low cost.

[moonslav59]

And on the face of it, Giolito was an extremely risky investment of $38 million after his disastrous finish to 2023.

 

It's hilarious that the Braves are potentially getting 3 years of Sale for the same net cost as the Sox are paying for potentially 1 year of Giolito.

 

If we had a poll, last December: sign Gio to $38M or extend Sale. I’m not sure anyone would be 100% behind extending Sale.

 

Not a single poster ever suggested another Sale extension, even after a somewhat decent end to 2023.

[dgalehouse]

Just on the face of it, the trade was kind of strange. You trade a pitcher who has been among the best for a middle of the road prospect who the Braves didn't see in their future. Then you still pay half of his salary. Meanwhile, you have Story , with Mayer and Yorke waiting in the wings. Seems like the most obvious reason was to save some money.

[moonslav59]

The Sox got slapped around by the Yankees last night. They are now 14 games behind them. They continue to play poor fundamental baseball. Screw up a simple rundown play. Can't catch an easy toss to first, etc. Yet we still have people saying they are " fun to watch." We have a twisted sense of what is fun.

 

Didn’t know there was such a thing as the Fun Police.

 

To me, this team is more fun to watch than the 22 and 23 teams. It sucks watching my team lose, and I went through 3 decades of never seeing a Sox ring, but there was a lot of fun things going on those years, too.

 

You can choose to not see any fun.

 

I don’t see the need in criticizing fans for enjoying themselves as best they can through some lean years, but to each his own.

[moonslav59]

Just on the face of it, the trade was kind of strange. You trade a pitcher who has been among the best for a middle of the road prospect who the Braves didn't see in their future. Then you still pay half of his salary. Meanwhile, you have Story , with Mayer and Yorke waiting in the wings. Seems like the most obvious reason was to save some money.

 

Grissom was not a middle of the road prospect, and he already had over 230 PAs of much better numbers than the 87 he is being judged over, now.

 

He was blocked in ATL. We had Reyes at 2B for 2024.

[Bellhorn04]

“Potentially” is the big word there.

 

And how is the pitcher averaging 170 IP for the last 3 seasons riskier than the pitcher averaging 35 IP per year?

 

The answer, which should be obvious, is that there are different types of risk. The risk with Giolito was performance risk, after being a batting practice pitcher for the last two months of the season.

[moonslav59]

I know my eyesight has been in decline for years, but am I so blind that I’m the only one getting any enJOYment out of watching…

Houck?

Crawford and Pivetta?

Slaten and Bernardino?

Aubrey and Rafaela?

Duran?

Devers and Wong?

Ref and The resurgence of DHam and Valdez?

 

I know many of these players have had some cringeworthy moments, but seriously, is nobody else getting any fun out of this season? Is tge anger and frustration so overwhelming that it’s impossible to find anything g to enjoy?

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

The answer, which should be obvious, is that there are different types of risk. The risk with Giolito was performance risk, after being a batting practice pitcher for the last two months of the season.

 

Sale had performance risk, too. Tge times he did pitch were littered with mediocrity and more questions than answers.

[Bellhorn04]

If we had a poll, last December: sign Gio to $38M or extend Sale. I’m not sure anyone would be 100% behind extending Sale.

 

Not a single poster ever suggested another Sale extension, even after a somewhat decent end to 2023.

 

I guess we have to keep pointing out that the Red Sox had a club option on Sale for 2025. That combined with Sale's age and injury risk would make offering an extension irrational.

 

This is just deflecting from the real issue of whether it made sense to trade him.

[Bellhorn04]

Sale had performance risk, too. Tge times he did pitch were littered with mediocrity and more questions than answers.

 

That's simply wrong, off the charts wrong in fact. His fWAR was always very good for the innings he pitched.

Edited June 15, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

If we had a poll, last December: sign Gio to $38M or extend Sale. I’m not sure anyone would be 100% behind extending Sale.

 

Not a single poster ever suggested another Sale extension, even after a somewhat decent end to 2023.

 

1. I’m sure cp would have wanted the Sale extension. He’s the only one whose disgust for this trade has no shred of hindsight. Also, safe bet he was pro-Sale extension.

 

2. Gio for $38mill was a worst case - exactly how it played out unfortunately. The second option was more of a feeler for how he felt about a QO. If he didn’t exercise his player option, it was a safe bet he’d turn down the similarly valued QO.

[Bellhorn04]

I know my eyesight has been in decline for years, but am I so blind that I’m the only one getting any enJOYment out of watching…

Houck?

Crawford and Pivetta?

Slaten and Bernardino?

Aubrey and Rafaela?

Duran?

Devers and Wong?

Ref and The resurgence of DHam and Valdez?

 

I know many of these players have had some cringeworthy moments, but seriously, is nobody else getting any fun out of this season? Is tge anger and frustration so overwhelming that it’s impossible to find anything g to enjoy?

 

 

 

 

The frustration is with the men running the team.

[moonslav59]

Sales 2023 season:

5.13 FIP first 5 starts

4.36 FIP last 4 starts

11 very good starts in the middle.

 

While way more encouraging than 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, I don’t recall many feeling all that great about his future.

 

Hell Paxton had a nice 11 game stretch in 2023, too. Nobody wanted him back.

[moonslav59]

1. I’m sure cp would have wanted the Sale extension. He’s the only one whose disgust for this trade has no shred of hindsight. Also, safe bet he was pro-Sale extension.

 

2. Gio for $38mill was a worst case - exactly how it played out unfortunately. The second option was more of a feeler for how he felt about a QO. If he didn’t exercise his player option, it was a safe bet he’d turn down the similarly valued QO.

 

I did not want Gio. I liked him almost as much as Stroman, at the time.

 

We keep signing the wrong guys. That sucks.

[Bellhorn04]

I keep hearing Sale pitched badly in 2019. That's ********, unless you're an Old Schooler who only looks at W-L and ERA.

 

In 147.1 innings he had a 3.6 fWAR. His xFIP was 2.93. His K/BB was 6 to 1.

 

If you keep saying he pitched badly that year, as Sam Kennedy might put it, you're lying.

[moonslav59]

The frustration is with the men running the team.

 

Of course, but to say there was no reason to trade a pitcher who was the poster boy for misguided signings to fix a position that has sucked since Pedey’s healthy days is going to get a response from me.

[moonslav59]

I keep hearing Sale pitched badly in 2019. That's ********, unless you're an Old Schooler who only looks at W-L and ERA.

 

In 147.1 innings he had a 3.6 fWAR. His xFIP was 2.93. His K/BB was 6 to 1.

 

If you keep saying he pitched badly that year, as Sam Kennedy might put it, you're lying.

 

You are right. I should have started with 2020. He pitched very well in 2019… one of the few.

[moonslav59]

You are right. I should have started with 2020. He pitched very well in 2019… one of the few.

 

The 4.40 ERA was higher than it should have been.

 

His FIP was, I think, like 3.40 which was not vintage Sale but still pretty damn good.