A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

As bad as our middle infield has been, this year, we seem to have finally hit on some combos that have been doing okay, of late.

 

We cycled through ...

.617 Story (season-ending injury)

.452 Valdez I (demoted May 2nd)

.451 Reyes (DFA'd)

.000 Short (traded back)

 

Romy Gonzalez (.651) and playing Rafaela (.634) at SS started the improvement, but these two guys have really stepped it up a hefty notch:

.775 DHam (.898 since May 17th- a pretty significant sample size of 91 PAs)

1.251 EValdez II (June numbers)

 

A word to those who think DHam is a fluke and Grissom a bust.

 

DHam's sample size of .898 in his last 91 PAs is larger than Grissom's SSS. His 135 PA sample size for 2024 (at .775) is about twice the size of Grissom's.

 

I hope we can keep this up. We will need good play from our middle IF to have any chance at making the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

I also like the "future signings" of Hendriks and Fulmer.

 

And his dumpster dive signings of Booser, who has been pretty damn good, and Anderson and Keller, who have been adequate innings chewers.

 

And with no Breslow we might have no Bailey.

 

I'm not down on Breslow at all, and as I much as I go on about the Sale trade, I suspect that had a lot to do with making everything fit into the tight budget he was so rudely given.

 

Brez certainly deserves more time to get a feel for his total body of work. I have a good gut feeling, out of the gate, based on what he has done, so far.

 

While his most noteworthy deal has looked awful, I do think it made sense, at the time, and if Grissom ends up winning the second base job, it may end up being an okay or even good trade for us.

 

Yes, I did not mention the Hendriks and Fulmer deals, which could end up being very helpful. The Booser deal was minor, but has worked out okay. Chase Anderson has not been all that awful.

 

A lot of his final grade might end up on Fitts, Grissom I Campbell and Weissert's next few years.

[Bellhorn04]

The Booser deal was minor, but has worked out okay.

 

Booser has actually been outstanding. 2.84 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 6.2 K/BB. For a guy no one had ever heard of. Major props for this one.

[Old Red]

Brez certainly deserves more time to get a feel for his total body of work. I have a good gut feeling, out of the gate, based on what he has done, so far.

 

While his most noteworthy deal has looked awful, I do think it made sense, at the time, and if Grissom ends up winning the second base job, it may end up being an okay or even good trade for us.

 

Yes, I did not mention the Hendriks and Fulmer deals, which could end up being very helpful. The Booser deal was minor, but has worked out okay. Chase Anderson has not been all that awful.

 

A lot of his final grade might end up on Fitts, Grissom I Campbell and Weissert's next few years.

 

Yes, and you had the same good feeling for Bloom.🙈🤭🤮

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I also think Mr. Alex Cora is doing a sensational job this year. It would be a feel-good story if they announced an extension for him.

 

It gives me agita when I hear national media speculating that AC will get the next Craig Counsell contract...

 

... not just because I think Cora is the second-best Red Sox manager in my lifetime, but because we all know Boston ownership can afford to keep him -- and we suspect John Henry would prefer instead someone at entry-level salary to man an under-manned roster.

 

We fans and our high suspectations...

[Bellhorn04]

It gives me agita when I hear national media speculating that AC will get the next Craig Counsell contract...

 

... not just because I think Cora is the second-best Red Sox manager in my lifetime, but because we all know Boston ownership can afford to keep him -- and we suspect John Henry would prefer instead someone at entry-level salary to man an under-manned roster.

 

We fans and our high suspectations...

 

I do think Henry must respect Cora as a manager, to bring him back after a (well-deserved) suspension.

[notin]

I do think Henry must respect Cora as a manager, to bring him back after a (well-deserved) suspension.

 

… not to mention offer him other positions within the organization…

[Old Red]

I do think Henry must respect Cora as a manager, to bring him back after a (well-deserved) suspension.

 

On 1 hand They told Cora he was safe when Bloom got fired, but on the other hand he doesn’t have a new contract. Maybe he wants to take some managing time off for some family time.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I do think Henry must respect Cora as a manager, to bring him back after a (well-deserved) suspension.

 

Who's a better company man than a new hire who implements a scheme devised by the analytics department exploiting the cutting edge fringes of an industry, and then takes the fall as a scapegoat for the entire organization?

 

What big business owner wouldn't want to employ a stand-up guy who served his time and kept his mouth shut.

[moonslav59]

I’m

Booser has actually been outstanding. 2.84 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 6.2 K/BB. For a guy no one had ever heard of. Major props for this one.

 

Yes, better than okay.

[moonslav59]

Who's a better company man than a new hire who implements a scheme devised by the analytics department exploiting the cutting edge fringes of an industry, and then takes the fall as a scapegoat for the entire organization?

 

What big business owner wouldn't want to employ a stand-up guy who served his time and kept his mouth shut.

 

Post of the week.

[notin]

OK, they all pitched well. That would be 3+ WAR for 150 innings, 3.5+ for 175 innings.

 

What else is there to say about it?

 

First of all, just extrapolating out the innings (which means ignoring Sale’s most obvious weakness) does ignore that that doesn’t always work so well. Fatigue, etc.

 

Second, have you seen how Matz is doing?

 

Third, Kluber was better and actually durable the year before the Sox acquired him. But, as happens with every pitcher, he got old and did so fast. Just because Sale hasn’t didn’t mean it wasn’t a concern…

[notin]

Who's a better company man than a new hire who implements a scheme devised by the analytics department exploiting the cutting edge fringes of an industry, and then takes the fall as a scapegoat for the entire organization?

 

What big business owner wouldn't want to employ a stand-up guy who served his time and kept his mouth shut.

 

To me, Henry doesn’t want to just be cheap; he wants to be cheap and win. In order to accomplish that, he will need an organization that runs on the cutting edge of analytics. The best guy for just such a team is Alex Cora, who is one of the largest devotees of analytics in all of MLB.

 

So Cora is an investment for Henry that shields him from paying the outrageous MLB prices he so wants to avoid…

[Bellhorn04]

First of all, just extrapolating out the innings (which means ignoring Sale’s most obvious weakness) does ignore that that doesn’t always work so well. Fatigue, etc.

 

Second, have you seen how Matz is doing?

 

Third, Kluber was better and actually durable the year before the Sox acquired him. But, as happens with every pitcher, he got old and did so fast. Just because Sale hasn’t didn’t mean it wasn’t a concern…

 

To me the bottom line is that Sale's fWAR per inning has remained good through those injury-ravaged and abbreviated seasons with us.

 

The hilarious one is 2022, when he registered a 0.2 fWAR in 5.2 IP. Even that extrapolates well.

[notin]

To me the bottom line is that Sale's fWAR per inning has remained good through those injury-ravaged and abbreviated seasons with us.

 

The hilarious one is 2022, when he registered a 0.2 fWAR in 5.2 IP. Even that extrapolates well.

 

As I have said about Sale (and a few others, notably Eovaldi), the issue isn’t talent.

 

But that 2022 looks odd, especially when considering that 5.2 IP covers two starts. Also odd with his career lowest K/9 (which means nothing over 5 IP, but is a factor in FIP, which is in turn a factor in fWAR)…

[Bellhorn04]

The way I see it, if the Yankees, Dodgers or other current big spending teams were in the same position as we were with Sale, they wouldn't have traded him. They would have said "f*** it, let's keep him and hope we get lucky".

[notin]

The way I see it, if the Yankees, Dodgers or other current big spending teams were in the same position as we were with Sale, they wouldn't have traded him. They would have said "f*** it, let's keep him and hope we get lucky".

 

Other current big spending teams? Like the Mets?

 

Not to mention, the logic that “the Sox should have gambled on Sale” as being obvious ignores two points.

 

1. It was clearly a gamble, which this point openly admits.

2. The Sox did gamble on Sale four times over the previous four seasons and lost each time. Definition of insanity, maybe?

 

Even you didn’t like the $10mill gamble on Kluber one year earlier, despite Kluber actually pitching a full season and having a lesser injury history in recent years. But with the benefit of hindsight, Sale at 3x as much is obvious?

 

It was a deal that made sense at the time but so far has blown up badly. I do my blame the Sox for this at all…

Edited June 16, 2024 by notin

[Duran Is The Man]

We are currently 36-35 with a "Pythagorean" W-L at 39-32.

 

It looks, so far, like progress has been slow, especially after the hopes 2021 brought us. Nobody expected everything to go right, this year, and we've certainly had our fair share of key players being on the IL, but a lot has gone right and bodes well for our future success.

 

We still have some gaps, and losing Pivetta (assuming no extension or re-signing,) Jansen, O'Neill and Martin will hurt, but I think we have found out a few things that are on the bright side.

 

Our rotation looks better than anyone expected, and that was considered our weakest link.

Our OF looks solid on O and D and depth.

Devers is having his best OPS year and seems to be making less mistakes on D.

Our catching tandem in in the top tier.

Our pen has been a top 5-10 pen, so far.

 

We really have 3-4 major need areas, besides Casas staying healthy for next year:

SP

SS/2B

RHB

Closer

 

We can't count on Gio (SP2,) Story (SS) & DHam/Grissom (2B), Hendriks (closer) and Ref (as our top RHB.)

 

The rest seems pretty solid and pretty deep.

 

as much as i've been down on Gruesome, i totally understand why they wanted him when you look at what he had done in AA and AAA. but as we all know, success in AAA doesn't always translate into success in MLB. see Dalbek, Bobby.

[Duran Is The Man]

I also think Mr. Alex Cora is doing a sensational job this year. It would be a feel-good story if they announced an extension for him.

 

no way Henry pays him. no way.

[moonslav59]

To me the bottom line is that Sale's fWAR per inning has remained good through those injury-ravaged and abbreviated seasons with us.

 

The hilarious one is 2022, when he registered a 0.2 fWAR in 5.2 IP. Even that extrapolates well.

 

For the most part, he did do well, in the very few IP he had after 2019, but he was not really all that close to vintage Sale.

 

2017-2018

2.56 ERA/2.25 FIP/0.92 WHIP/7.1 K/BB

 

2014-2018, including time w CWS

2.85/2.69/0.99/11.6

 

2019 (147 IP)

4.40/3.39/1.09/5.9

 

2020-2023 (151 IP over 4 seasons: 38 per season AVG)

3.93/3.72/1.19/4.3 (2.6 bWAR/3.1 fWAR)

All these numbers are significantly lower than pre-2019, and all but the ERA is worse than 2019.

 

38 IP per season over 4 seasons (less than 60 over the last 5 seasons.)

 

Nobody expected close to this:

2.98/2.33/0.94/7.6

 

At best we might have hoped he could give us the 3.39 FIP from 2023 over more innings, which of course, would have been a big help, especially in light or what happened to Gio & Whitlock.

 

Of course we all wish we had the 2024 Sale on our staff, right now, but nobody expected this Sale. I'm not sure many expected the 2013 Sale over 170+ IP, either.

 

Many of us did not expect great or even good things from Gio, but we did reasonably expect 160+ IP. Grissom's future was mostly speculative, but he did have a decent OPS after 230+ PAs.

 

No doubt, the trade looks about as bad as anyone could have ever imagined, so far.

 

[notin]

no way Henry pays him. no way.

 

I think Cora is an investment Henry will make to keep future roster payrolls down…

[moonslav59]

as much as i've been down on Gruesome, i totally understand why they wanted him when you look at what he had done in AA and AAA. but as we all know, success in AAA doesn't always translate into success in MLB. see Dalbek, Bobby.

 

My main point was there were reasons to make the trade, at the time.

 

The other main reason was this:

 

Sox 2B fWAR

2.6 from 2022-2023 (ranked 26th in MLB)

2.1 from 2019-2021 (ranked 25nd)

 

From 2019-2023, we were ranked 27th. That's 5 seasons of horrific 2B play. Bottom third tier on O and D.

 

Grissom looked very promising- more so than someone like Jeter Downs, because he already had over 230 PAs in the bigs. He had not shown he was a plus defensive SS, but the expectation was he could become a decent or average 2Bman on D after a short time. A .750 OPS or so, would have blown away the .697 OPS we got from 2B in the previous 5 seasons combined.

 

The deal has been a disaster, out of the gate, but Grissom has many years to right the ship, assuming he doesn't bomb out and lasts as long as Downs did.

[moonslav59]

I think Cora is an investment Henry will make to keep future roster payrolls down…

 

I'm not sure money will be an issue with JH on Cora. They offered him a promotion, already.

 

I think the ball will be in Cora's court, and I'm not sure he is all that pleased with the direction JH has taken the team since the Betts trade. He's vocalized that discontent several times to varying degrees.

[notin]

My main point was there were reasons to make the trade, at the time.

 

The other main reason was this:

 

Sox 2B fWAR

2.6 from 2022-2023 (ranked 26th in MLB)

2.1 from 2019-2021 (ranked 25nd)

 

From 2019-2023, we were ranked 27th. That's 5 seasons of horrific 2B play. Bottom third tier on O and D.

 

Grissom looked very promising- more so than someone like Jeter Downs, because he already had over 230 PAs in the bigs. He had not shown he was a plus defensive SS, but the expectation was he could become a decent or average 2Bman on D after a short time. A .750 OPS or so, would have blown away the .697 OPS we got from 2B in the previous 5 seasons combined.

 

The deal has been a disaster, out of the gate, but Grissom has many years to right the ship, assuming he doesn't bomb out and lasts as long as Downs did.

 

Sale has done everything to embarrass the Sox on this trade. I just wish he was able to embarrass like this them occasionally from 2020 through 2023.

 

Grissom has been his complete inverse - unhealthy, underperforming- making this look even worse.

 

But I’m not calling him a bust after 87 PA. I advocated for the DFA of David Hamilton in April after a much larger and equally unimpressive sample size and Hamilton has responded lately with an impressive show. Some guys take a while.

 

I’m still right about DFAing Dalbec, however…

[moonslav59]

Sale has done everything to embarrass the Sox on this trade. I just wish he was able to embarrass like this them occasionally from 2020 through 2023.

 

Grissom has been his complete inverse - unhealthy, underperforming- making this look even worse.

 

But I’m not calling him a bust after 87 PA. I advocated for the DFA of David Hamilton in April after a much larger and equally unimpressive sample size and Hamilton has responded lately with an impressive show. Some guys take a while.

 

I’m still right about DFAing Dalbec, however…

 

I totally agree, and those 87 PAs cam after no ST'ing and some while he was battling or feeling the effects of a bad flu.

 

That is not to say, I'm sure he will improve. He has a lot to prove and more to "make up for" what he already has given us: a negative value.

 

That being said, DHam has already atoned for his bad start to MLB, and then some, Maybe Grissom will. Maybe with the way DHam and EValdez are doing, he may not even have to comeback.

[Bellhorn04]

Other current big spending teams? Like the Mets?

 

Not to mention, the logic that “the Sox should have gambled on Sale” as being obvious ignores two points.

 

1. It was clearly a gamble, which this point openly admits.

2. The Sox did gamble on Sale four times over the previous four seasons and lost each time. Definition of insanity, maybe?

 

Even you didn’t like the $10mill gamble on Kluber one year earlier, despite Kluber actually pitching a full season and having a lesser injury history in recent years. But with the benefit of hindsight, Sale at 3x as much is obvious?

 

It was a deal that made sense at the time but so far has blown up badly. I do my blame the Sox for this at all…

 

I don't think you're completely getting my position.

 

Of course keeping Sale would have been a gamble - with a big potential payoff like the one we're seeing so far.

 

And what did we gain by passing up that gamble?

 

A 10 million dollar payroll reduction, and a prospect.

 

Not enough, IMHO.

[Bellhorn04]

As for Grissom, if you look at his major league game logs from Day One, you're not going to like the trend you see one little bit.

[moonslav59]

Check our some of these June numbers:

1.251 Valdez

1.101 Duran

1.063 Devers

.879 O'Neill

.836 Smith

.810 Wong

.804 Abreu

.798 DHam

.749 Westbrook

 

.700 Refsnyder

.667 Rafaela

.542 Dalbec

.464 Yoshida

.319 McGuire

 

OPS Against

.136 Kelly

.478 Jansen

.519 Keller (7th in PAs Against)

.558 Pivetta (5th in PAs Against)

.570 Houck (3rd in PAs Against)

.657 Criswell (2nd in PAs Against)

.668 Booser

 

.754 Crawford (4th in PAs Against)

.757 Slaten (8th)

.812 Weissert

.813 Anderson (5th)

 

.908 Bello (1st in PAs Against)

.929 Bernardino

[Old Red]

I think Cora is an investment Henry will make to keep future roster payrolls down…

 

Everyone is just assuming Cora will be managing somewhere next year. I’m not so sure on that.

[moonslav59]

As for Grissom, if you look at his major league game logs from Day One, you're not going to like the trend you see one little bit.

 

The "trend" is a flatline of sucktitude.

 

I know you love my cherry-picking, so...

 

.297 first 9 games

.419 last 14 games

 

But also....

.360 first 11 games

.373 last 12 games

Looks flatlined and headed to the morgue.