A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

We will never know, but what we do know is players are bigger now, more athletic now, train longer now, are more exposed to baseball now, and throw harder now.

 

If Koufax was a young major leaguer today, he’d have been exposed to all the advancements and trainings and youth leagues, and he’d very likely be an even better pitcher for it…

 

If he was a Driveline guy, he would have wrecked his elbow and had 2 TJS before he even reached MLB.

[dgalehouse]

It is not physically possible for a baseball thrown overhand or three quarters to rise as it nears the plate. However, there have been a few pitchers whose fastball at least gave the illusion of rising, making it harder to hit. I remember Eck, when he was in the booth, having an interesting discussion on this a few years ago.

[notin]

Today's athletes are bigger, stronger and faster. But not necessarily greater. Muhammad Ali would make Tyson Fury look like a buffoon before knocking him cold. And Koufax is an all time great.

 

But the Mike Tyson Mysteries was far superior to the Muhammad Ali cartoon…

[notin]

It is not physically possible for a baseball thrown overhand or three quarters to rise as it nears the plate. However, there have been a few pitchers whose fastball at least gave the illusion of rising, making it harder to hit. I remember Eck, when he was in the booth, having an interesting discussion on this a few years ago.

 

An over the top or 3/4 pitcher is releasing the ball significantly higher than the strike zone and throwing at a downward angle. A sidearm pitcher can throw it more level and the lack of an angle can give the illusion of a rising pitch…

[Maxbialystock]

It is not physically possible for a baseball thrown overhand or three quarters to rise as it nears the plate. However, there have been a few pitchers whose fastball at least gave the illusion of rising, making it harder to hit. I remember Eck, when he was in the booth, having an interesting discussion on this a few years ago.

 

That's what the write-up on Koufax says--that with backspin his fastball gave the impression of rising (without actually doing so). Eck would have known about Koufax, who will turn 90 next year. When he announced his retirement at age 30, he said he wanted to be able to live the rest of his life without great discomfort from his left arm. Turns out, he made exactly the right decision.

Edited May 23, 2024 by Maxbialystock

[Hugh2]

in 1871 Starting pitcher Al Spalding started EVERY.....SINGLE.....GAME.

 

They certainly don't make em like they used too.

[dgalehouse]

in 1871 Starting pitcher Al Spalding started EVERY.....SINGLE.....GAME.

 

They certainly don't make em like they used too.

 

Al had a rubber arm. They even named the rubber ball after him.

[notin]

in 1871 Starting pitcher Al Spalding started EVERY.....SINGLE.....GAME.

 

They certainly don't make em like they used too.

 

 

Also helps that Spalding threw underhand…

[jad]

An over the top or 3/4 pitcher is releasing the ball significantly higher than the strike zone and throwing at a downward angle. A sidearm pitcher can throw it more level and the lack of an angle can give the illusion of a rising pitch…

 

There is also the illusion of the 'hop', which apparently is due to the eye/brain switching from distant to close focus. Dunno. But I know I've read that somewhere.

 

UI remember as a kid, one of the few RS games I got to go to, i had the illusion that outfielder throws rose--again, because of the speed? (The guy I remember focussing on was Carroll Hardy!, who apparently was much better at football than baseball, leading to some mean-spirited razzing: "T'row 'im a football; mebbe he can hit THAT."

[Elktonnick]

Read an interesting article which postulates that it is theoretically possible for a fast ball to rise if it were thrown with enough velocity and a high enough spin rate.

 

One calculated that it would need to be thrown at a 113 mph with a 3100 rpm spin rate. Obviously beyond the current capability of anyone pitching today.

[moonslav59]

in 1871 Starting pitcher Al Spalding started EVERY.....SINGLE.....GAME.

 

They certainly don't make em like they used too.

 

He went 251-65 in 6 years. He played in 7. (106-21 in 2 seasons, combined)

 

325 GS in those 6 seasons.

 

He had a career .313 BA.

Edited May 24, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sox fWAR Leaders

2.2 Houck (10GS) 1st in MLB for pitchers

2.1 Duran 50 gms (T 13th in fWAR everyday players)

1.8 Crawford (10 GS) 10th in MLB

1.5 Abreu 44 (T for 33rd in MLB)

1.5 Devers 39 (T33)

1.1 Wong 34

1.0 O'Neill 39

0.9 Slaten (26 IP)

0.6 McGuire 31

0.6 Casas 22

0.5 Criswell (7 GS + 1 RP)

0.5 Jansen (17 IP)

0.5 Refsnyder 24

0.4 Bernardino (20 IP)

0.4 Whitlock (18 IP - maybe out for 1+ years)

0.3 Martin (19 IP)

0.2 Bello (8 GS)

0.2 DHam 25

0.1 Wink (24 IP)

0.1 Romy 12

0.1 Uwasawa (4 IP)

 

0.0 many

 

-0.1 Kelly (14 IP) & Anderson (22 IP)

-0.1 Cooper

-0.2 Short

-0.2 Joely (11 IP) & Campbell (6 IP)

-0.5 Dalbec/Smith (in less gms than Dalbec)

-0.6 Rafaela

-0.7 Grissom, Reyes & Valdez (One can see why we tried to fix 2B.)

 

Team Positional Rankings in fWAR

2nd Pitching 7.5 (4th SP 5.0 and 2nd Pen 2.5)

3rd RF 2.0 (Abreu & O'Neill have been bright spots.)

T3rd LF 1.7 (Nice!)

8th C 1.7 (I had hopes we could be above average, this year, but WOW!)

11th CF 0.7 (A mix of players, here.)

18th 1B 0.1 (Only Casas kept us from being negative)

23rd 3B 0.3 (I know Devers at 1.5 missed time, but...?)

23rd DH -0.3 (What a shame!

28th SS -0.1 (No story has hurt, here.)

30th 2B -1.4 (Grissom has yet to fix the 2B problem.)

 

The Pitching, Catchers and OF have saved us: 4th OF 4.4 (POW!)

The pen is ranked higher than the rotation!

 

It's obvious, our middle infield and DH have been big weak areas, this year.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Any 10 games in a season can be important, but I kind of like the next 10--3 vs the Brewers; 3 @ the Orioles; and 4 vs. the Tigers--as an indicator of which is more real, the current 4 game winning streak when the Sox hit the dang ball, or the 5-11 record before that when they didn't.

 

Brewers lead the NL Central @ 28-21 and have almost exactly the same run differential, +38, as the Sox, +39. So they are a good litmus test.

 

The Orioles, as they did last season, have been kicking our butts and swept the Sox @ the Fens 6 weeks ago (7-1, 7-5, 9-4). Let it be noted, however, that most of the butt kicking was against the Sox rotten defense and so-so bullpen. So I do not believe this series (Fri, Sat, Sun) is a lost cause.

 

Finally, 4 vs the 23-27 Tigers back at Fenway Park, is a series the Sox should win if the rotation remains solid, the defense doesn't go sour, the bullpen doesn't blow up, and the lineup keeps hitting.

 

Right now the 5 Sox starters--Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, and Criswell--are about as good as we could possibly hope for. And their combined salaries add up to $15M.

 

And the hitting seems to be coming around. As I said elsewhere, maybe all they need/needed was some confidence because the current available OPS's--Ref .956, Devers .925, O'Neill .882, Wong .882, Abreu .842, Duran .800, Gonzalez .730, McGuire .708, Hamilton .696, and Rafaela .585--are almost decent. Grissom .316 is not, nor is Smith .483 or Cooper .592. Thus is Cora more than willing to pinch hit.

 

The point is, these 10 games--which I have arbitrarily selected--can help determine where the hitting and pitching are.

 

Which reminds me--the bullpen is up and down like a yo-yo, but did not jeopardize the 4 game winning streak the Sox are on (thanks to the rotation and hitting).

 

Same goes for the defense. I kind of like the outfield of Duran, Rafaela, and Abreu, and even Ref and O'Neill are almost decent. The infield, however, has been error prone and also "should-have-been-an-error prone." Like when Devers grabbed a grounder a game or two ago, checked his watch, looked at the flags, waved to a fan, and finally threw to 1b late. Nevertheless, Devers has made some good plays and so have the others. I do not consider the infield defense to be hopeless.

 

This is not an especially young team, but it is an inexperienced one. Duran, Abreu, Wong, Grissom, Hamilton, and Rafaela--6 players who start a lot of games these days--are in their first or second full season of MLB. It's possible they will improve as they gain experience. We already know that's true of Duran, Abreu, and Wong--and Casas, on the IL until June 21.

[a700hitter]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/grifol-eloy-jimenez-to-miss-extended-period-of-time.html

 

I can remember discussions here of whether “injury prone” is a thing. This guy’s body clearly cannot play anywhere near a full season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

-0.6 Rafaela

 

 

Here's where one stat can be dismissed by other stats -- and rational observers can argue...

 

Is Ceddanne Rafaela literally worth less than a replacement player this year? Do his overall contributions really affect the Red Sox in a negative way?

 

He's made some errors on defense, but anyone who has watched most of the games knows the team D stabilized when he was forced to become the regular shortstop. And while Duran has been surprisingly consistent in the outfield -- 3rd in the AL in dWAR -- Rafaela has already made some plays in CF fans haven't seen since vintage Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

With a bat, Ceddanne is still a hacker, but slowly improving. He actually has less strikeouts than Duran, who is 4th in the AL in WAR.

 

Rafaela has the most RBIs on a team with a winning record. That right there is a lot better than if the Red Sox replaced him with some guy off the street, or gave his uniform to a poster off talksox (who would probably sell it on eBay -- which automatically makes him a positive).

[Bellhorn04]

Here's where one stat can be dismissed by other stats -- and rational observers can argue...

 

Is Ceddanne Rafaela literally worth less than a replacement player this year? Do his overall contributions really affect the Red Sox in a negative way?

 

He's made some errors on defense, but anyone who has watched most of the games knows the team D stabilized when he was forced to become the regular shortstop. And while Duran has been surprisingly consistent in the outfield -- 3rd in the AL in dWAR -- Rafaela has already made some plays in CF fans haven't seen since vintage Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

With a bat, Ceddanne is still a hacker, but slowly improving. He actually has less strikeouts than Duran, who is 4th in the AL in WAR.

 

Rafaela has the most RBIs on a team with a winning record. That right there is a lot better than if the Red Sox replaced him with some guy off the street, or gave his uniform to a poster off talksox (who would probably sell it on eBay -- which automatically makes him a positive).

 

I agree. Rafaela seems to be the somewhat rare case of a guy you want on the field every day in spite of the ugly-looking WAR. He has to start pulling that out of negative territory at some point, needless to say.

[Maxbialystock]

I agree. Rafaela seems to be the somewhat rare case of a guy you want on the field every day in spite of the ugly-looking WAR. He has to start pulling that out of negative territory at some point, needless to say.

 

I also agree. The ESPN WAR for Rafaela is -0.2, but I'm OK with -0.6. As others have said, his range--at both SS and CF--is what has led to 1 or more of his errors. And he still leads the Sox in rbi's with 26.

[Hugh2]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/grifol-eloy-jimenez-to-miss-extended-period-of-time.html

 

I can remember discussions here of whether “injury prone” is a thing. This guy’s body clearly cannot play anywhere near a full season.

 

 

Wait this actually happened? I suppose nothing is unbelievable today.

 

Of course people are injury prone!!!!

 

I do think it's worth noting that people can be injury prone for different reasons.

 

We are all put together differently. Length of bones can vary, where muscles attach can vary. These things can effect someones flexibility and how certain motions put stress on tendons/ligaments etc etc etc.

 

Also, poor training habits and muscular imbalances can be a leading cause to a lot of injuries as well.

 

With the later..........we can do something about that. Even before the recent rash of injuries I've been advocating for the Sox to invest more into well qualified strength and conditioning coaches up and down the system.

[Elktonnick]

Wait this actually happened? I suppose nothing is unbelievable today.

 

Of course people are injury prone!!!!

 

I do think it's worth noting that people can be injury prone for different reasons.

 

We are all put together differently. Length of bones can vary, where muscles attach can vary. These things can effect someones flexibility and how certain motions put stress on tendons/ligaments etc etc etc.

 

Also, poor training habits and muscular imbalances can be a leading cause to a lot of injuries as well.

 

With the later..........we can do something about that. Even before the recent rash of injuries I've been advocating for the Sox to invest more into well qualified strength and conditioning coaches up and down the system.

I believe it is a statistical fact of baseball life that chances of going on the IL increase the more times a player goes on the IL. In other words a player on the IL has a greater likelihood of going on the IL again than one who has not gone on the IL.

[Bellhorn04]

I believe it is a statistical fact of baseball life that chances of going on the IL increase the more times a player goes on the IL. In other words a player on the IL has a greater likelihood of going on the IL again than one who has not gone on the IL.

 

Makes perfect sense, yes.

 

The only caveat might be that some injuries are totally fluky, but even then, it probably increases the chances.

[moonslav59]

Here's where one stat can be dismissed by other stats -- and rational observers can argue...

 

Is Ceddanne Rafaela literally worth less than a replacement player this year? Do his overall contributions really affect the Red Sox in a negative way?

 

He's made some errors on defense, but anyone who has watched most of the games knows the team D stabilized when he was forced to become the regular shortstop. And while Duran has been surprisingly consistent in the outfield -- 3rd in the AL in dWAR -- Rafaela has already made some plays in CF fans haven't seen since vintage Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

With a bat, Ceddanne is still a hacker, but slowly improving. He actually has less strikeouts than Duran, who is 4th in the AL in WAR.

 

Rafaela has the most RBIs on a team with a winning record. That right there is a lot better than if the Red Sox replaced him with some guy off the street, or gave his uniform to a poster off talksox (who would probably sell it on eBay -- which automatically makes him a positive).

 

He's certainly made more plays most or no others make than errors, so he is a clear plus on D, at SS and CF.

 

His offense is a big negative, and rbis are not something WAR counts. It is also not a skill or something that can be counted on as being repeated, going forward.

 

That being said, those RBIs were huge and helped us win, so yes, WAR does not recognize things like that.

 

By and large, the other numbers look about right.

 

I listed games played to highlight how some of our highest WAR players have half the games as other near them in the team rankings.

 

Ref would jump.

 

Wong + McGuire would place 5th.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

rbis are not something WAR counts. It is also not a skill or something that can be counted on as being repeated, going forward.

 

 

I love disagreeing with this, but only because I played for decades on special clubs with certain guys that teammates counted on to drive in vital runs -- because those guys often did, more than anyone else. They were usually among the best hitters on the team, but even when surrounded by groups of five or six All-Star bats... let's just say certain individuals had a knack for delivering in big moments.

 

Alex Rodriguez had a career BA/OPS of .295/.930 in the regular season, and .259/.822 in a dozen postseasons. He was good in seven of 19 series.

 

David Ortiz had a career BA/OPS of .286/.931 in the regular season, and .289/.947 in nine postseasons. He was a beast in nine of 18 series.

 

Both were stars; one was a little better at a time of year when it mattered most, while the other got a little worse. But those are just numbers.

 

Now ask any Red Sox or Yankee fan who they'd rather have up with the game on the line -- ARod or Big Papi?

[notin]

I love disagreeing with this, but only because I played for decades on special clubs with certain guys that teammates counted on to drive in vital runs -- because those guys often did, more than anyone else. They were usually among the best hitters on the team, but even when surrounded by groups of five or six All-Star bats... let's just say certain individuals had a knack for delivering in big moments.

 

Alex Rodriguez had a career BA/OPS of .295/.930 in the regular season, and .259/.822 in a dozen postseasons. He was good in seven of 19 series.

 

David Ortiz had a career BA/OPS of .286/.931 in the regular season, and .289/.947 in nine postseasons. He was a beast in nine of 18 series.

 

Both were stars; one was a little better at a time of year when it mattered most, while the other got a little worse. But those are just numbers.

 

Now ask any Red Sox or Yankee fan who they'd rather have up with the game on the line -- ARod or Big Papi?

 

But there still had to be people on base for any player to drive in.

 

Know why Rafaela leads the Sox in RBI this year? He’s come up with more people on base than anyone else on the Sox.

 

The reason you can’t really count on RBI is there is nothing about Ortiz or ARod or any premier hitter that guarantees he will come up with people on base. Just like Devers this year…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But there still had to be people on base for any player to drive in.

 

Know why Rafaela leads the Sox in RBI this year? He’s come up with more people on base than anyone else on the Sox.

 

The reason you can’t really count on RBI is there is nothing about Ortiz or ARod or any premier hitter that guarantees he will come up with people on base. Just like Devers this year…

 

"When I'm at bat, I'm in scoring position," said Oscar Gamble.

 

His baseball card was a picture of a giant afro, with a face and cap sticking out.

[jad]

Of course, then there's the fact that Raphaela is great to watch, and sports is (or was, I guess) a form of entertainment. I have no interest in seeing him replaced with a .200 hitting journeyman who may have a better dx7wWAR++.

[vegasbob]

For those expecting the Bryan Mata ( #27 on your depth chart) to be any part of this team competing for a WC (?) , don't count on this poor guy. He is finished.

[notin]

"When I'm at bat, I'm in scoring position," said Oscar Gamble.

 

His baseball card was a picture of a giant afro, with a face and cap sticking out.

 

I remember Gamble and his card.

 

The man finished his career with 666 RBIs, and then nearly doubled down with 656 runs scored. He’s too evil to quote…

[Randy Red Sox]

another golden sombrero for the juicer last night.

[Old Red]

another golden sombrero for the juicer last night.

 

And one poster on here wanted to lock him up already.

[Hugh2]

another golden sombrero for the juicer last night.

 

What do you think he's juicing with

 

Celery and Kale with some pinneapple?