A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Randy Red Sox]

Most of that OPS comes from early in the season when you bought in, and wanted to extend him. He’s 24 for his last 49. K’s that is. It doesn’t matter who they give up for him it’s what he’s doing on the field at the here, and now.

 

thanks Red. good info here

[dgalehouse]

Adding Soto to that lineup and ballpark could have no other effect…

 

I wonder if they will be able to sign Soto. Steinbrenner is starting to sound like John Henry in saying what a burden the payroll is becoming.

[notin]

I wonder if they will be able to sign Soto. Steinbrenner is starting to sound like John Henry in saying what a burden the payroll is becoming.

 

It sounds like they will be looking to until payroll, which in suggested earlier but was vehemently told was not the case…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I will say, no player I know of hit more big homers or hits than Big Papi. If anyone can be called clutch, it would be him.

 

If ever a guy repeated clutch, it was Ortiz in at least the three seasons he helped Boston win the World Series.

 

But how rare is that? Well, the last ballplayer to win three rings for the Red Sox was named Babe Ruth... but he was a pitcher then, and only contributed one hit in the Fall Classics of 1915, 1916 and 1918.

 

There was, however, a man who WON FOUR RINGS for the Red Sox: Harry Hooper -- Babe's teammate, who also played on the Sox' 1912 championship team. Hoop was only great in his first three World Series, but his large sample size of postseasons shows he performed better when it counted most, compared to the regular season: career .293 and .810 in WS vs. .281 and .755 in 154-game seasons.

 

Does anyone really want to argue that the Red Sox playing in four World Series out of seven years is a small sample size when considering postseasons -- the biggest stage of them all every year?

 

... or can we just celebrate the guys who came through for the Red Sox when teammates, fans and New England needed them to?

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder if they will be able to sign Soto. Steinbrenner is starting to sound like John Henry in saying what a burden the payroll is becoming.

 

I'd bet they do sign him. He has made them a much more dangerous team. Hal recognizes the value of a big star like Soto.

[Randy Red Sox]

Most of that OPS comes from early in the season when you bought in, and wanted to extend him. He’s 24 for his last 49. K’s that is. It doesn’t matter who they give up for him it’s what he’s doing on the field at the here, and now.

 

26 for 51 now

[Old Red]

26 for 51 now

 

🤭🙈🤮!

[notin]

I'd bet they do sign him. He has made them a much more dangerous team. Hal recognizes the value of a big star like Soto.

 

Soto’s team makes it sound like free agency is inevitable, which they’re going to say no matter what. Hal undoubtedly wants him, but even the Yankees have limits. And this guy might be lookining at 12 years $600mill.

 

The big question is - who will the other players be? They will exist. But who?

 

I’m counting Boston as out already…

[notin]

!

 

Yeah. Cheering against O’Neill because he struggled coming back from colliding with Devers…

[Old Red]

Yeah. Cheering against O’Neill because he struggled coming back from colliding with Devers…

 

Just stating the facts. Is that why he's striking out so much now, because of his colliding with Devers, or is he just unlucky not being able to hit the ball?🤫

[notin]

Just stating the facts. Is that why he's striking out so much now, because of his colliding with Devers, or is he just unlucky not being able to hit the ball?

 

His slump coincided with coming back, absolutely. Why is this 50 PA stretch more important than the previous stretch on a 29 year old Gold Glove winning RH power bat whose only drawback is an injury history that would actually keep his years and salary in check?

 

Oh wait. He had a bad stretch of 50 plate appearances…

[Old Red]

His slump coincided with coming back, absolutely. Why is this 50 PA stretch more important than the previous stretch on a 29 year old Gold Glove winning RH power bat whose only drawback is an injury history that would actually keep his years and salary in check?

 

Oh wait. He had a bad stretch of 50 plate appearances…

 

You bloated about his first 50 plate appearances, and wanted to lock him up, so we’ll see how it all turns out in the end. Like I’ve said many times when you, and Moon get giddy about someone it usually turns s***** shortly after. 🤫

[notin]

You bloated about his first 50 plate appearances, and wanted to lock him up, so we’ll see how it all turns out in the end. Like I’ve said many times when you, and Moon get giddy about someone it usually turns s***** shortly after.

 

Dude I wanted him locked up for 2-3 more years before he first 50 PA.

 

He’s the right-handed power bat with Gold Glove defense. Bad injury issue but otherwise the younger, better Duvall, whom I also wanted back.

 

It was NEVER about his first 50 PA…

[Old Red]

Dude I wanted him locked up for 2-3 more years before he first 50 PA.

 

He’s the right-handed power bat with Gold Glove defense. Bad injury issue but otherwise the younger, better Duvall, whom I also wanted back.

 

It was NEVER about his first 50 PA…

 

And as usual it didn’t happen, hasn’t happened, and Most likely won’t happen, which is par for the course with you. C’mon man!

[jad]

Yeah. Cheering against O’Neill because he struggled coming back from colliding with Devers…

 

Actually, that answers my question about what's wrong with O'Neill. For some reason, I didn't consider that. I would assume the 'post-concussion' effects would show up particularly for baseball players. In football, hockey, etc., you can more or less power through it. But hitting a 95mph fastball? different matter.

[notin]

And as usual it didn’t happen, hasn’t happened, and Most likely won’t happen, which is par for the course with you. C’mon man!

 

They got him after I suggested in February. So you’re actually wrong on this one…

Edited May 26, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

Dude I wanted him locked up for 2-3 more years before he first 50 PA.

 

He’s the right-handed power bat with Gold Glove defense. Bad injury issue but otherwise the younger, better Duvall, whom I also wanted back.

 

It was NEVER about his first 50 PA…

 

And besides, after his first 54 PAs:

 

115 PAs .744 OPS

5 HRs in 27 games. (on pace for 30 HRs in 162 games)

 

The .744 OPS would be 6th best out of all Sox players with more than 90 PAs on the team.

 

If that's a slump, geesh!

 

[moonslav59]

We are lucky the Rays and Jays keep losing more than us.

 

We do seem destined to finish near the .500 mark, despite some some surprises we've seen, so far.

 

I'm enjoying watching this team, more than 2022's and 2023's teams. Maybe having lower expectations is part of it, but we have quite a few players AI like watching play.

 

I think Brez and Bailey have set us back on the right track, but we had so far to go, maybe .500 is the best we can expect.

 

There will be no in-season return of Gio, Story or Whitlock, like the hopes we had in season's past of returning player promises. Maybe Casas can give us a mid/late season boost, or someone like Hendriks makes some noise, but to do something special, this year, we will likely need to see big turn-arounds from several players... like...

 

Grissom

Winckowski

Rafaela (on O)

O'Neill (bust his slump)

McGuire (on O)

Bello

(I probably forgot 1 or 2.)

[Randy Red Sox]

And besides, after his first 54 PAs:

 

115 PAs .744 OPS

5 HRs in 27 games. (on pace for 30 HRs in 162 games)

 

The .744 OPS would be 6th best out of all Sox players with more than 90 PAs on the team.

 

If that's a slump, geesh!

 

 

do you not call 26 K'S in 52 AB a slump?

[Randy Red Sox]

Red Sox have had 3 of their starting 5-SP spend significant time on the DL already this year--Bello, Whitlock, Pivetta. Who could have guessed that ?

[moonslav59]

do you not call 26 K'S in 52 AB a slump?

 

He's in a huge slump, recently- much to your delight.

 

I did not pick the "after 50 PA" number.

[moonslav59]

We are 2 games from the 1/3 season mark. My guess is we go 1 and 1.

[moonslav59]

Players doing better than I expected, so far:

 

.929 Refsnyder (and I've been pretty high on him)

.910 Devers (improving his D, of late.)

.855 Wong (on D and O)

.843 O'Neill (needs to right the ship)

.829 Abreu (better on O and D)

.799 Duran (showing '23 was no fluke)

.733 DHam (Felt he was DFA fodder in March)

.708 McGuire (better on O & D)

 

Tweeners

Casas & Yoshida (injured)

Rafaela & Romy (Good D/ bad O)

 

Under performers

1B .596 Smith, .566 Cooper and .377 Dalbec

2B .453 Valdez, .451 Reyes and .314 Grissom

SS Story and his IL stint

 

Pitcher Pluses

Houck

Crawford

Criswell

Bernardino

Weissert

Slaten

 

Pitching tweeners

Jansen

Martin

Pivetta, Kelly, Wink, Anderson & Booser

 

Underperformers

Bello (not bad, but I expected better)

Joely, Campbell, Jacques

Gio & Whitlock and their IL stints.

 

Really, we have 4-5 major areas that need improvement and consistency:

2B

1B

SS (on O)

4SP/5SP Bello/Pivetta

 

 

Edited May 26, 2024 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

They got him after I suggested in February. So you’re actually wrong on this one…

 

O’Neill was not locked up, is not locked up, and most likely won’t be locked up, so no I’m not actually wrong. Bad try on your part, but then again you have set the bar so low for yourself. Another N?

[Bellhorn04]

Going with a lefty opener against the Red Sox 1-4 hitters, which normally include Duran, Abreu and Devers, seems like a very good strategy, unfortunately.

[moonslav59]

Going with a lefty opener against the Red Sox 1-4 hitters, which normally include Duran, Abreu and Devers, seems like a very good strategy, unfortunately.

 

It's games like this, we really miss Casas, who kills lefties.

 

v LHPs in '24

.608 Devers

.602 Duran

.477 Abreu

This would be the time for Cora to schedule a day off for Abreu and maybe one of the other two.

 

Here is an interesting quirk to Sox splits:

 

2023-2024 L-R splits by our catchers:

 

v RHPs

.748 Wong (a RHB)

.647 McGuire (a LHB)

 

v LHPs

.940 McGuire (a LHB)

.649 Wong (a RHB)

 

McGuire has a .193 reverse split

Wong has a .099 reverse split

 

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

nobody can say that Breslow is not picking up SP. He just signed another BBB Brad Keller I would guess as a result of the Whitlock injury.

[moonslav59]

nobody can say that Breslow is not picking up SP. He just signed another BBB Brad Keller I would guess as a result of the Whitlock injury.

 

We have a history of picking up SP'ers. Recently, most have been 1 year signings or flyers on scrubs or recently injured pitchers, like Kluber, Paxton, Richards, Wacha and Hill.

 

In a short time, Brez has added (none on a 1 year deal):

Gio (IL)

Criswell

Anderson (used more in relief)

Fitts (AAA)

Sandlin (A+)

Brad Keller (Kelly optioned to AAA)

[Randy Red Sox]

We have a history of picking up SP'ers. Recently, most have been 1 year signings or flyers on scrubs or recently injured pitchers, like Kluber, Paxton, Richards, Wacha and Hill.

 

In a short time, Brez has added (none on a 1 year deal):

Gio (IL)

Criswell

Anderson (used more in relief)

Fitts (AAA)

Sandlin (A+)

Brad Keller (Kelly optioned to AAA)

 

it wouldn't surprise me if Breslow signed Hill after he finishes coaching his kid's Little League team.

[moonslav59]

it wouldn't surprise me if Breslow signed Hill after he finishes coaching his kid's Little League team.

 

Me neither.

 

With Gio & Whit out, all year, we need the 5 we have now to stay healthy all year.

 

That is not very likely, and Keller isd probably a better option than burning out the pen with pen games or letting Chase Anderson go 3-4 innings, assuming he pitches well enough to last even that long.

 

Our current 5 look pretty good, but regressing to the norm could happen.

 

As SP'ers only:

1.94 Houck (10GS) .515 OPS Against

2.78 Criswell (7) .665

2.89 Crawford (11) .637

4.04 Bello (8) .714

4.20 Pivetta (6) .734

 

Note: Wink has 3 GS with 10.2 IP and a 1.69ERA/.620 OPSA