A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Hugh2]

For those expecting the Bryan Mata ( #27 on your depth chart) to be any part of this team competing for a WC (?) , don't count on this poor guy. He is finished.

 

I expect we will see something from him soon.

 

As soon as his rehab assignment is over the Sox will have to either add him to the 40 man or DFA him.

[notin]

I expect we will see something from him soon.

 

As soon as his rehab assignment is over the Sox will have to either add him to the 40 man or DFA him.

 

He’s been on the 40 man roster for almost 4 years. He would need to be added to the 26 man roster, as he is out of options. The only alternative is DFA him. He’s very likely to clear waivers, since he hasn’t pitched much in the past few seasons, hasn’t pitched all that well on the rare occasion he does pitch, and has no options left.

 

The only other possibility - which the Sox could do but makes zero sense - is the 60 day IL. Unless he actually is hurt, this would be a bad, since all it does is delay the same decision above.

 

I suspect they DFA him and then assign him to the minors if/when he clears waivers. I don’t think Mata can refuse assignment, but I could be wrong. Anyone got some clarity on that?

[Hugh2]

He’s been on the 40 man roster for almost 4 years. He would need to be added to the 26 man roster, as he is out of options. The only alternative is DFA him. He’s very likely to clear waivers, since he hasn’t pitched much in the past few seasons, hasn’t pitched all that well on the rare occasion he does pitch, and has no options left.

 

The only other possibility - which the Sox could do but makes zero sense - is the 60 day IL. Unless he actually is hurt, this would be a bad, since all it does is delay the same decision above.

 

I suspect they DFA him and then assign him to the minors if/when he clears waivers. I don’t think Mata can refuse assignment, but I could be wrong. Anyone got some clarity on that?

 

Correct, I was wrong. He needs to be added to the 26 man or DFA'd.

 

So whether people like it or not the Sox may do just that to see what he does.......or he gets DFA'd.

[a700hitter]

I am tired of hearing about our “great starting pitching” and how the Red Sox didn’t need Chris Sale. This group has over-performed, but the reality is that this is a below average group without a stopper or a number 1 or number 2. Houck and Bello are the only ones with plus stuff. it remains to be seen if Houck can go out there for 150 plus innings. The same goes for Crawford. The “injury prone” Whitlock will never be reliable as a starter. Pivetta has a ceiling of mediocrity.

 

As for our bullpen, the ages of the top 2 guys combined for almost 80 years. They will need to rebuild that ad well as the rotation after this season. It doesn’t look promising.

[Bellhorn04]

It's another year of .500ish ball. Sometimes they look much better than a .500 team and sometimes they look much worse.

[notin]

It's another year of .500ish ball. Sometimes they look much better than a .500 team and sometimes they look much worse.

 

Sticking around .500 for a while is OK if you have the depth to hold on. Since if you can go that, you’re always one good hit streak away from the postseason.

 

My biggest concern since, maybe December, has been the lack of depth. When pitching injuries stack up and fatigue sets in, who are the Sox going to turn to?

[notin]

Correct, I was wrong. He needs to be added to the 26 man or DFA'd.

 

So whether people like it or not the Sox may do just that to see what he does.......or he gets DFA'd.

 

I think adding him to the 26 man would be crazy, but it also might be necessary if they need an arm…

[Bellhorn04]

Sticking around .500 for a while is OK if you have the depth to hold on. Since if you can go that, you’re always one good hit streak away from the postseason.

 

My biggest concern since, maybe December, has been the lack of depth. When pitching injuries stack up and fatigue sets in, who are the Sox going to turn to?

 

It'll just pave the way for the July selloff.

[notin]

It'll just pave the way for the July selloff.

 

Assuming we have a decisive CBO…

[Bellhorn04]

Assuming we have a decisive CBO…

 

I think we do this time.

[dgalehouse]

I remember Gamble and his card.

 

The man finished his career with 666 RBIs, and then nearly doubled down with 656 runs scored. He’s too evil to quote…

 

The thing I remember most about Oscar Gamble is the way that Yankee announcer Bob Sheppard said his name.

[dgalehouse]

It's another year of .500ish ball. Sometimes they look much better than a .500 team and sometimes they look much worse.

 

Essentially, they have been beating the bad teams and losing to the good ones. But you can hang around the wild card picture just by doing that.

[Hugh2]

I think adding him to the 26 man would be crazy, but it also might be necessary if they need an arm…

 

I'm not getting exciting about it, but just saying it might happen.

[Hugh2]

Can we just appreciate the season Tanner Houck is having

 

He leads the American League in WAR, he's 5th in innings pitched, 11th in K's.

 

Get this.....HE'S THE ONLY GUY WHO HAS PITCHED A SHUT OUT THIS YEAR.

 

That's right there's only been 4 complete game shut outs across baseball and 3 of them have been in the NL.

[Maxbialystock]

I am tired of hearing about our “great starting pitching” and how the Red Sox didn’t need Chris Sale. This group has over-performed, but the reality is that this is a below average group without a stopper or a number 1 or number 2. Houck and Bello are the only ones with plus stuff. it remains to be seen if Houck can go out there for 150 plus innings. The same goes for Crawford. The “injury prone” Whitlock will never be reliable as a starter. Pivetta has a ceiling of mediocrity.

 

As for our bullpen, the ages of the top 2 guys combined for almost 80 years. They will need to rebuild that ad well as the rotation after this season. It doesn’t look promising.

 

I would love to have had Sale stay. He is just one more example of the malfeasance of JH's "brain trust." Consider--

 

This year's payroll is $182M, but $16M is going to closer Jansen, $17M to Braves starter Chris Sale, $22.5M to Story who's out for the season because he risked life and limb diving for a grounder, $18M for Giolito who is out for the season because he unwisely threw pitches in spring training, $18.6M for Yoshida whose thumb hurts and who can't hit anyway, and $7M for Turner who plays for the Jays.

 

That adds up to $99M, which leaves $83M, of which Devers is paid $29M, so the rest of the team--the entire pitching staff (rotation and relievers) except Jansen, the entire outfield, both catchers, all of the infielders except Devers, and the DH--are being paid $54M. The bottom 5 payrolls in MLB are $64M (A's), $83M (Pirates), $98M (Rays), $99M (Marlins), and $99M (Orioles).

 

Looked at that way--and disregarding what other teams are paying their players who are on the IL or otherwise not contributing--the 2024 Sox needed to spend $360M, way more than the top dollar Mets payroll of $307M, to have any hope of competing this season.

 

Indeed, given the above, it's a semi-miracle the Sox are still 1 game above .500.

[moonslav59]

I love disagreeing with this, but only because I played for decades on special clubs with certain guys that teammates counted on to drive in vital runs -- because those guys often did, more than anyone else. They were usually among the best hitters on the team, but even when surrounded by groups of five or six All-Star bats... let's just say certain individuals had a knack for delivering in big moments.

 

Alex Rodriguez had a career BA/OPS of .295/.930 in the regular season, and .259/.822 in a dozen postseasons. He was good in seven of 19 series.

 

David Ortiz had a career BA/OPS of .286/.931 in the regular season, and .289/.947 in nine postseasons. He was a beast in nine of 18 series.

 

Both were stars; one was a little better at a time of year when it mattered most, while the other got a little worse. But those are just numbers.

 

Now ask any Red Sox or Yankee fan who they'd rather have up with the game on the line -- ARod or Big Papi?

 

If you randomly generated sample sizes the size of what players have in the playoffs, some would have better or much better numbers than their regular season norms, and some would not. The fact that reality matches up with what a computer would generate proves nothing about the make-up of the people who dod exceptionally good or bad.

 

It doesn't prove there is no skill involved, either.

 

On Papi, he playoff, RISP, high leverage or whatever "clutch" stat you choose was pretty close to his norms of the regular season, which happen to have been pretty damn awesome.

 

I will say, no player I know of hit more big homers or hits than Big Papi. If anyone can be called clutch, it would be him.

[moonslav59]

another golden sombrero for the juicer last night.

 

Like clockwork.

 

Just like the silence after a 3 for 5 night.

 

[Randy Red Sox]

Like clockwork.

 

Just like the silence after a 3 for 5 night.

 

 

.241 avg now

[Randy Red Sox]

Whitlock out for 11-12 months

[moonslav59]

He’s been on the 40 man roster for almost 4 years. He would need to be added to the 26 man roster, as he is out of options. The only alternative is DFA him. He’s very likely to clear waivers, since he hasn’t pitched much in the past few seasons, hasn’t pitched all that well on the rare occasion he does pitch, and has no options left.

 

The only other possibility - which the Sox could do but makes zero sense - is the 60 day IL. Unless he actually is hurt, this would be a bad, since all it does is delay the same decision above.

 

I suspect they DFA him and then assign him to the minors if/when he clears waivers. I don’t think Mata can refuse assignment, but I could be wrong. Anyone got some clarity on that?

 

He's already been out hurt 45-50 days, right?

 

Can we retro the start date to give us a few more weeks?

[moonslav59]

I think we do this time.

 

He quickly identified players to trade, last winter, and he did not shy away from trading some bigger names, like Sale & Verdugo.

 

I'm pretty sure he has a list of players he does not see as longer term Sox. I could see him making several moves, and one again, we could see some sort of "buyer" and "seller' type moves. I'm not sure being "in the hunt" will matter, in terms of the types of trades being made. I doubt we make any trades for a rental, even if we are 2 games up in the WC standings. (Just my opinion. I think the strategy is all about 2025 and beyond.)

 

Recap of winter moves:

Chris Sale for V Grissom

Verdugo for Fitts, Weissert & Judice

N Robertson & V Santos for Tyler O'Neill

Urias for I Campbell

Schreiber for David Sandlin

R Ammons for Justin Slaten (Rule 5 selection)

Cash for T Heineman

 

In season:

Signed S Smith

Cash for G Cooper

Cash for V Gutierrez

Cash for B Horn

Cash for Z Short & Short for cash.

 

Possible summer trade chips:

 

Last year of control:

Pivetta

O'Neill

Martin

Jansen

Anderson

Cooper

Smith

 

1.7 years of control:

McGuire

 

Might not be part of long term plans (might not have any or much trade value, either:)

Winckowski (apparently had issues with management before demotion)

Zach Kelly (can't seem to find control)

E Valdez (Romy & DHam seem to have won his slot)

Wikelman & Perales (perhaps as pieces to an upgrade in pitching)

Mata (out of options)

Dalbec, Murphy, Walter

 

This deadline may be much more interesting than any under Bloom, except for maybe the Schwarber trade.

[moonslav59]

.241 avg now

 

Find his worst stat and post it.

 

We did not acquire him for BA. His career BA is .247.

 

How about these stats?

.510 SLG (2nd to Devers is what we signed him for.)

.349 OBP (4th on team and .001 from 3rd, Abreu)

0.8 bWAR (T 5th on team)

11 HRs (1st on team)

17 RBIs (6th, despite missing time)

 

We gave up Nick Robertson and Victor Santos for one year of a guy who was a question mark for 2024. He's given us what we hoped for. Good D (in LF), poer from the right side and is 4th in PAs on the team.

 

Oh, and by the way, 8 players have a worse BA than .241 (34+ PAs) and 9 have a better one. If he gains .003, today, he passes Casas to the top tier in BA on the team.

 

[moonslav59]

Whitlock out for 11-12 months

 

This is Yankeesque!

[dgalehouse]

Meanwhile, back in The Bronx, the Yankee lineup is looking like a wrecking machine.

[Old Red]

Like clockwork.

 

Just like the silence after a 3 for 5 night.

 

 

As usual when Moon gets giddy about something like the team, or a player it usually turns s***** for the team, or the player. Just like Devers Forevers when he’s hitting HR, and Never Devers when he’s leaving all kinds of runners on base. Point. Counter point.

Edited May 25, 2024 by Old Red

[Old Red]

Meanwhile, back in The Bronx, the Yankee lineup is looking like a wrecking machine.

 

And have stayed pretty much healthy so far.

[notin]

Meanwhile, back in The Bronx, the Yankee lineup is looking like a wrecking machine.

 

Adding Soto to that lineup and ballpark could have no other effect…

[notin]

Find his worst stat and post it.

 

We did not acquire him for BA. His career BA is .247.

 

How about these stats?

.510 SLG (2nd to Devers is what we signed him for.)

.349 OBP (4th on team and .001 from 3rd, Abreu)

0.8 bWAR (T 5th on team)

11 HRs (1st on team)

17 RBIs (6th, despite missing time)

 

We gave up Nick Robertson and Victor Santos for one year of a guy who was a question mark for 2024. He's given us what we hoped for. Good D (in LF), poer from the right side and is 4th in PAs on the team.

 

Oh, and by the way, 8 players have a worse BA than .241 (34+ PAs) and 9 have a better one. If he gains .003, today, he passes Casas to the top tier in BA on the team.

 

 

 

I get complaining about Sale/Grissom.

 

But anyone complaining about O’Neill, whose OPS is still up over .850 and leads the team in home runs, and who came in for a cost of two journeyman AAAA pitchers, the type no organization has a shortage of, desperately needs to complain about something…

[moonslav59]

I get complaining about Sale/Grissom.

 

But anyone complaining about O’Neill, whose OPS is still up over .850 and leads the team in home runs, and who came in for a cost of two journeyman AAAA pitchers, the type no organization has a shortage of, desperately needs to complain about something…

 

It looks like a good trade, so far.

 

He might tank or get hurt, but I doubt Robertson or Santos are going to light the world on fire. Who knows, maybe we trade O'Neill at the deadline and the gift keeps giving. (Maybe not.)

 

I'm not a huge fan of O'Neill, but he's done as expected or better, and there are so many others more worthy of criticism.

 

Also, we have yet to reach the 1/3 mark for the season, so the report card is still far from complete.

 

[Old Red]

I get complaining about Sale/Grissom.

 

But anyone complaining about O’Neill, whose OPS is still up over .850 and leads the team in home runs, and who came in for a cost of two journeyman AAAA pitchers, the type no organization has a shortage of, desperately needs to complain about something…

 

Most of that OPS comes from early in the season when you bought in, and wanted to extend him. He’s 24 for his last 49. K’s that is. It doesn’t matter who they give up for him it’s what he’s doing on the field at the here, and now.