A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Nick]

Zach Penrod promoted to Worcester. A lefty, 53 K's in 35+ innings.

 

Expect him to get to the majors by year end.

[Nick]

Slaten looks like a closer to me for 2025. Abreu has better rookie numbers than everyone's favorite Cowser. Edited May 26, 2024 by Nick

[notin]

Slaten looks like a closer to me for 2025. Abreu has better rookie numbers than everyone's favorite Cowser.

 

Mason Miller is the favorite for AL ROY right now.

 

Going by fWAR, Abreu ranks third with 1.5, trailing Cowser and Miller, both of whom are tied at 1.6…

[Randy Red Sox]

Me neither.

 

With Gio & Whit out, all year, we need the 5 we have now to stay healthy all year.

 

That is not very likely, and Keller isd probably a better option than burning out the pen with pen games or letting Chase Anderson go 3-4 innings, assuming he pitches well enough to last even that long.

 

Our current 5 look pretty good, but regressing to the norm could happen.

 

As SP'ers only:

1.94 Houck (10GS) .515 OPS Against

2.78 Criswell (7) .665

2.89 Crawford (11) .637

4.04 Bello (8) .714

4.20 Pivetta (6) .734

 

Note: Wink has 3 GS with 10.2 IP and a 1.69ERA/.620 OPSA

 

 

out with one BBB [Guiterrez] and in with another [ Keller} hope John's wallet is not taking too big of a hit

[Nick]

If I'm JH i'd be wondering 1) why the guy we signed for 5 yrs @$90M was not in the lineup everyday before he got hurt 2) the guy that was signed for $23M per year as an insurance for Xander has been out of the line and NOT hitting ever since he was signed 3) the young pitcher that was extended early jas had trouble mot being on the IL 4) why we gave a win win contract to Giolito....and the list goes on. Edited May 26, 2024 by Nick

[Maxbialystock]

As usual when Moon gets giddy about something like the team, or a player it usually turns s***** for the team, or the player. Just like Devers Forevers when he’s hitting HR, and Never Devers when he’s leaving all kinds of runners on base. Point. Counter point.

 

I flip flop more than moonslav or anyone I can think of.

 

The simple fact is that this team is a $54M miracle. Of the $182M payroll, $16M is going to closer Jansen, $17M to Braves starter Chris Sale, $22.5M to Story who's out for the season because he risked life and limb diving for a grounder, $18M for Giolito who is out for the season because he unwisely threw pitches in spring training, $18.6M for Yoshida whose thumb hurts and who can't hit anyway, $7M for Turner who plays for the Jays, and $29M for Rafael Devers. So that $54M pays for the entire Sox pitching staff, including the entire rotation, less $16M for Jansen--and for the entire Sox lineup less Devers.

 

How they are still over .500 is astounding.

[moonslav59]

How they are still over .500 is astounding.

 

With our pitching, we should be 5-8 over .500.

 

If seeing there is more than one way to look at an issue is flip-flopping, then that's me. (I don't see it that way.)

[moonslav59]

We are 1 game from the 1/3 mark of the season, and currently nobody is between us and the last WC slot held by MIN at 28-24. We are 1.5 behind them.

 

DET is 1 GB us. The Rays 1.5 and TEX 2.5.

[moonslav59]

Upcoming Sox schedule:

 

3 @ BAL

3 v DET

Off

2 v ATL

4 @ CHW

Off

3 v PHI

3 v NYY

3 @ TOR

Off

3 @ CIN

3 v TOR

Off

3 v SDP

Off

3 @ MIA

3 @ NYY

 

Not an easy stretch, at all. Let's see how we handle it.

 

 

 

[Nick]

Do we extend Houck now?

 

His Arb1-Arb3 starts next year.

 

He has had 9 quality starts. His 3 pitch mix is working.

Edited May 27, 2024 by Nick

[jad]

No. Wait for him to peak. Then trade him for two prospects and an injured journeyman, paying half his salary as well of course.

[Nick]

I don't believe Cooper is better option than Abreu at DH at this point. Ugh..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't believe Cooper is better option than Abreu at DH at this point. Ugh..

 

Yesterday they batted him third, just in front of Devers. If you can't hit MLB pitchers that are coming right at you -- because the most-feared batter in the line-up is on deck -- then you can't hit.

 

But it gets worse: today, Cooper is batting fifth, right after Devers. We get the left-right batting order protocol, but once again: with "protection" like Cooper, why would any pro pitcher throw anything near Raffy's bat with the game on the line (or ever)?

[notin]

Do we extend Houck now?

 

His Arb1-Arb3 starts next year.

 

He has had 9 quality starts. His 3 pitch mix is working.

 

I like the idea extending Houck and Crawford back in February. But their prices are going up as with the success. Crawford is slowing down, possibly related to workload. Houck will eventually as well. But this is inevitable, and not a reason to not extend them…

[moonslav59]

Yesterday they batted him third, just in front of Devers. If you can't hit MLB pitchers that are coming right at you -- because the most-feared batter in the line-up is on deck -- then you can't hit.

 

But it gets worse: today, Cooper is batting fifth, right after Devers. We get the left-right batting order protocol, but once again: with "protection" like Cooper, why would any pro pitcher throw anything near Raffy's bat with the game on the line (or ever)?

 

Call up Kavadas, and DFA...

 

Smith- not Cooper. Start a 1B platoon, and none of our 1Bmen should ever DH.

[moonslav59]

I like the idea extending Houck and Crawford back in February. But their prices are going up as with the success. Crawford is slowing down, possibly related to workload. Houck will eventually as well. But this is inevitable, and not a reason to not extend them…

 

The idea is to lock up these guys, BEFORE they start doing really well. It might be too late with Houck. He has to see mega bucks in his future, now.

[Maxbialystock]

With our pitching, we should be 5-8 over .500.

 

If seeing there is more than one way to look at an issue is flip-flopping, then that's me. (I don't see it that way.)

 

Sox are ranked 13th in runs scored. That's the killer that keeps them from winning more. In this 3 game series vs. Milwaukee, they scored 2, 3, and 2 runs. They would have been swept had Houck and the bullpen not been fantastic yesterday. In the 4 game winning streak before the Milwaukee series, they scored 11, 5, 5, and 8 runs, which I took as a positive sign.

 

But in the 15 games before that--when the Sox were 4-11--the Sox scored 1, 2, 1, 9, 2, 0, 1, 4, 3, 3, 5, 3, 5, 6, and 2 runs.

 

The current Sox lineup of Duran, Abreu, Wong, Devers, O'Neill, McGuire, Refsnyder, Gonzalez, Rafaela, Smith/Cooper, Hamilton, and Grissom--13 players--has just 2 players, Devers and O'Neill, who have played 2 full seasons before this season. The other 11 players are either on their first or second full season or have always been bit players.

 

I cite Smith/Cooper in particular as nothing but refuse from other teams, DFA-types.

 

On the other hand, like everyone else, I like Duran, Abreu, Wong, Rafaela, McGuire, and now even Hamilton, whose respective WAR's are +2.8, +2.0, +1.1, 0, +.6, and +.6. I also like Devers, +1.1, and almost like O'Neill +0.7.

 

Plus let's not forget that Devers, O'Neill, Refsnyder, and Grissom--who are all playing pretty regularly right now--all spent time on the IL this season.

 

So my take is that the hitting is still a problem that defeats the terrific pitching, but that the hitting could well get better with time and experience.

[notin]

The idea is to lock up these guys, BEFORE they start doing really well. It might be too late with Houck. He has to see mega bucks in his future, now.

 

Yeah maybe at best you buy out his arb years and delay free agency by 1-2 years. But even that seems unlikely unless he collapses…

[Nick]

I can't stress enough how little value we are getting from our 'luxury tax payroll' in terms of non-productive payroll. We need to look at actual cash basis payroll to appreciate our record.

 

Cot's has us little under $20M in cap space. We have two players, Bello and Rafaela whose contracts are back loaded to create reducing cap space in early years. Cash layouts are $1.167M and $1.250 for Bello and Rafaela. But the straight line tax payroll burden is $9.167M and $6.250M for the two respectively. That creates fictitious payroll expense of $13M for 2024 between the two players.

 

Obviously we all know about Sale's $17M, Turner's $4.15M and recently DFA's Joely's $2M (Bres and/or Bailey missed on him sending Bernardino to the minors). Throw in wasted year from Giolino ($19.250M) and now Whitlock ($4.688M). Of course there's Trevor Story's $23.333M and I'm not sure what to make of Yoshida and his $18M anymore.

 

 

Look at another way, current 'playing' roster on cash basis and not on luxury tax basis, has a combined payroll of $90M with 5 players making $66M of it. (Devers, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill)

 

That $90M payroll is NOT that far removed from Oakland A's $60M. I think we'll playing pretty damn well with our 26 man roster based on their payroll.

 

Do you follow me, Moon? This is why I'm not disappointed in this team.

Edited May 27, 2024 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Sox are ranked 13th in runs scored. That's the killer that keeps them from winning more. In this 3 game series vs. Milwaukee, they scored 2, 3, and 2 runs. They would have been swept had Houck and the bullpen not been fantastic yesterday. In the 4 game winning streak before the Milwaukee series, they scored 11, 5, 5, and 8 runs, which I took as a positive sign.

 

But in the 15 games before that--when the Sox were 4-11--the Sox scored 1, 2, 1, 9, 2, 0, 1, 4, 3, 3, 5, 3, 5, 6, and 2 runs.

 

The current Sox lineup of Duran, Abreu, Wong, Devers, O'Neill, McGuire, Refsnyder, Gonzalez, Rafaela, Smith/Cooper, Hamilton, and Grissom--13 players--has just 2 players, Devers and O'Neill, who have played 2 full seasons before this season. The other 11 players are either on their first or second full season or have always been bit players.

 

I cite Smith/Cooper in particular as nothing but refuse from other teams, DFA-types.

 

On the other hand, like everyone else, I like Duran, Abreu, Wong, Rafaela, McGuire, and now even Hamilton, whose respective WAR's are +2.8, +2.0, +1.1, 0, +.6, and +.6. I also like Devers, +1.1, and almost like O'Neill +0.7.

 

Plus let's not forget that Devers, O'Neill, Refsnyder, and Grissom--who are all playing pretty regularly right now--all spent time on the IL this season.

 

So my take is that the hitting is still a problem that defeats the terrific pitching, but that the hitting could well get better with time and experience.

 

Agreed, but let's not forget problem #2, which has been improved upon over the last few weeks: Unearned Runs Allowed (not to mention earned runs allowed that could have been prevented with just average defense.)

 

37 BOS 7th in runs allowed (Most Unearned allowed)/13th in Runs scored

 

26 PHI (Best record in NL) 6 in runs allowed/ 1st in Runs scored

21 BAL (3rd best record in AL) 5 in runs allowed/7th in Runs scored

17 ATL (Best record in NLE) 3 in runs allowed/ 13th in Runs scored

15 MIL (Best record in NLC) 10th in runs allowed/6th in Runs scored

15 SEA (Best record in ALW) 9th in runs allowed/27th in Runs scored

15 CLE (Best record in AL) 4 in runs allowed/4th in Runs scored

14 LAD (Best record in NLW) 8th in runs allowed/2nd in Runs scored

14 MIN (5th best record in AL) 14th in runs allowed

13 NYY (Best record in ALE) 1 in runs allowed/3rd in Runs scored

12 KCR (4th best record in AL) 2 in runs allowed/4 in Runs scored

 

Red = outliers

 

Clearly the difference in Unearned Runs allowed has made a difference with the Sox and those above them in the WC standings.

 

-1.5 MIN (23 less UnERs allowed)

-6.5 KCR (24 less)

-7.5 BAL (16 less)

-0.5 SEA (22 less for the ALW leader)

 

Here is another way to look at it: Run differential vs record rankings and ER vs UnER differential vs record rankings:

 

Run Diff

1. +93 PHI 1st in W-L record in MLB

2. +92 NYY 3rd best record in MLB

3. +79 KCR 5th

4. +73 CLE 2nd

5. +69 LAD 6th

6. +47 ATL 7th

7. +45 MIL 8th

8. +32 BOS 11th

9. +4 MIN 8th

18. -7 SEA 8th

 

LEAST UnEarned runs:

12 KCR (5)

13 NYY (3)

14 LAD (6) & MIN (8)

15 CLE (2), MIL (8), SEA (8)

17 ATL (7)

21 BAL (4)

26 PHI (1)

37 BOS (11)

 

While W-L seems to jive closer to best W-L records, 3 teams are outliers in the W-L standings compared to RUN Differential: BOS is better than MIN & SEA, but are on the outside of the playoffs.

 

When you look at UnER vs ERs, no team is an outlier.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Yeah maybe at best you buy out his arb years and delay free agency by 1-2 years. But even that seems unlikely unless he collapses…

 

We could extend him 1-2 years beyond arbs, but now it will be very costly, and perhaps too big of a gamble. Knowing our luck, he'd go on the IL w TJS a day after he signs.

 

Crawford might be a better bet at extending, now.

 

I'd still think about Pivetta on a 3 year extension.

[Old Red]

Call up Kavadas, and DFA...

 

Smith- not Cooper. Start a 1B platoon, and none of our 1Bmen should ever DH.

 

Ah, more Kavadas talk. Kavadas is NOT coming up anytime soon, and Smith is NOT getting DFA.🤭🙈. At present time I would say that Smith is the regular 1B, so like it , or not that’s the way it is.

[Maxbialystock]

Agreed, but let's not forget problem #2, which has been improved upon over the last few weeks: Unearned Runs Allowed (not to mention earned runs allowed that could have been prevented with just average defense.)

 

37 BOS 7th in runs allowed (Most Unearned allowed)/13th in Runs scored

 

26 PHI (Best record in NL) 6 in runs allowed/ 1st in Runs scored

21 BAL (3rd best record in AL) 5 in runs allowed/7th in Runs scored

17 ATL (Best record in NLE) 3 in runs allowed/ 13th in Runs scored

15 MIL (Best record in NLC) 10th in runs allowed/6th in Runs scored

15 SEA (Best record in ALW) 9th in runs allowed/27th in Runs scored

15 CLE (Best record in AL) 4 in runs allowed/4th in Runs scored

14 LAD (Best record in NLW) 8th in runs allowed/2nd in Runs scored

14 MIN (5th best record in AL) 14th in runs allowed

13 NYY (Best record in ALE) 1 in runs allowed/3rd in Runs scored

12 KCR (4th best record in AL) 2 in runs allowed/4 in Runs scored

 

Red = outliers

 

Clearly the difference in Unearned Runs allowed has made a difference with the Sox and those above them in the WC standings.

 

-1.5 MIN (23 less UnERs allowed)

-6.5 KCR (24 less)

-7.5 BAL (16 less)

-0.5 SEA (22 less for the ALW leader)

 

Here is another way to look at it: Run differential vs record rankings and ER vs UnER differential vs record rankings:

 

Run Diff

1. +93 PHI 1st in W-L record in MLB

2. +92 NYY 3rd best record in MLB

3. +79 KCR 5th

4. +73 CLE 2nd

5. +69 LAD 6th

6. +47 ATL 7th

7. +45 MIL 8th

8. +32 BOS 11th

9. +4 MIN 8th

18. -7 SEA 8th

 

LEAST UnEarned runs:

12 KCR (5)

13 NYY (3)

14 LAD (6) & MIN (8)

15 CLE (2), MIL (8), SEA (8)

17 ATL (7)

21 BAL (4)

26 PHI (1)

37 BOS (11)

 

While W-L seems to jive closer to best W-L records, 3 teams are outliers in the W-L standings compared to RUN Differential: BOS is better than MIN & SEA, but are on the outside of the playoffs.

 

When you look at UnER vs ERs, no team is an outlier.

 

 

 

Completely agree with "outlier" unearned runs, which I forgot about. The Sox have in fact improved there. At the same time, however, the earned runs have increased.

[Maxbialystock]

Ah, more Kavadas talk. Kavadas is NOT coming up anytime soon, and Smith is NOT getting DFA.. At present time I would say that Smith is the regular 1B, so like it , or not that’s the way it is.

 

I don't like Smith or Cooper, and completely agree neither should ever DH. I know nothing about Kavadas. Casas can return 21 June if his recovery stays on track. Meanwhile, I would replace Smith or Cooper with Dalbec, which I realize is very much a minority opinion.

[moonslav59]

I can't stress enough how little value we are getting from our 'luxury tax payroll' in terms of non-productive payroll. We need to look at actual cash basis payroll to appreciate our record.

 

Cot's has us little under $20M in cap space. We have two players, Bello and Rafaela whose contracts are back loaded to create reducing cap space in early years. Cash layouts are $1.167M and $1.250 for Bello and Rafaela. But the straight line tax payroll burden is $9.167M and $6.250M for the two respectively. That creates fictitious payroll expense of $13M for 2024 between the two players.

 

Obviously we all know about Sale's $17M, Turner's $4.15M and recently DFA's Joely's $2M (Bres and/or Bailey missed on him sending Bernardino to the minors). Throw in wasted year from Giolino ($19.250M) and now Whitlock ($4.688M). Of course there's Trevor Story's $23.333M and I'm not sure what to make of Yoshida and his $18M anymore.

 

 

Look at another way, current 'playing' roster on cash basis and not on luxury tax basis, has a combined payroll of $90M with 5 players making $66M of it. (Devers, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill)

 

That $90M payroll is NOT that far removed from Oakland A's $60M. I think we'll playing pretty damn well with our 26 man roster based on their payroll.

 

Do you follow me, Moon? This is why I'm not disappointed in this team.

 

Thanks for highlighting a big issue with this team and it's budget. It is also evidence to show why JH is shying away from large and long contracts (besides Devers.)

 

I realize some are convince JH will never spend bigly, again. That very well MIGHT be the case, but nobody knows for sure.

 

When this "wasted money" comes off the books, we could not top this year's budget and still make some gains by getting our signings right, for once. The $23M "saved" by losing the Sale, Turner & Joely commitments could be a nice FA signings. We will, however, be facing some hard roles to fill, at the same cost as these guys are now:

$16M Jansen (might not be too hard to replace at $16M/per season)

$7.5M Martin (very hard to replace at this cost.)

$7.5M Pivetta (very hard)

$5.9M O'Neill (might be hard)

Cooper, Smith and Anderson should be easily replaced.

 

Finding a taker for half or more of Yoshida's contract might be impossible, so we probably keep him and pray for a turn-around. We have 3 more years of his $18M and Story's $23.3M and one more year of Gio at $19M.

 

The budget is not really a hot mess, going forward, and if JH does decide to spend more (not a projection,) we could see a solid team as early as 2025 or 2026.

 

C Wong & Teel (McGuire for '25)

1B Casas (Kavadas/ Devers?)

2B Grissom (Story/Yorke/Valdez/DHam/Romy)

SS Story & Mayer (Rafaela/Romy)

3B Devers (Mayer or Story?)

LF Duran & Abreu/Refsnyder

CF Rafaela & Anthony (Duran)

RF Abreu & Anthony (Refsnyder)

DH Yoshida & Refsnyder (Kavadas/Casas or Devers if Devers to 1B/DH)

 

No FAs needed for everyday players, except maybe a big RH'd bat, as Mayer, Anthony and Teel all bat left-handed.

 

Money will need to be spent on pitching, as always. The losses of Jansen, Martin and Pivetta (Gio after 2025,) alone will force some sort of additions.

 

2025 Staff

______, Houck, Crawford, Gio, Bello (Criswell, Whitlock/Fitts to pen)

______, _______, Hendriks, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, (Whitlock/Cooper/Fitts) or Wink/I Campbell/Fulmer/Kelly/Booser

 

2026 Staff

Gio> Fitts or Criswell?

Hendriks & Fulmer> Wink/Kelly/Guerrero/Murphy/Wikelman

[moonslav59]

I don't like Smith or Cooper, and completely agree neither should ever DH. I know nothing about Kavadas. Casas can return 21 June if his recovery stays on track. Meanwhile, I would replace Smith or Cooper with Dalbec, which I realize is very much a minority opinion.

 

I don't think giving Dalbec one more chance is a bad idea. Playing one or both of Cooper or Smith, everyday is not working.

 

A Dalbec/Kavadas platoon at 1B should not be any worse than Cooper/Smith, although many saw replacing Dalbec as essential a month ago.

 

There is no surer solution at 1B within our system, right now.

[Old Red]

I don't like Smith or Cooper, and completely agree neither should ever DH. I know nothing about Kavadas. Casas can return 21 June if his recovery stays on track. Meanwhile, I would replace Smith or Cooper with Dalbec, which I realize is very much a minority opinion.

 

I’m not big on Smith, or Cooper either, but at the moment that is what the Red Sox are going with and most likely will until Casas comes back.

[moonslav59]

I don't like Smith or Cooper, and completely agree neither should ever DH. I know nothing about Kavadas. Casas can return 21 June if his recovery stays on track. Meanwhile, I would replace Smith or Cooper with Dalbec, which I realize is very much a minority opinion.

 

My guess is, they ride Smith and Cooper to the Casas return, whenever that is. I'm not sure June 21st is that time, but I hope so.

 

It would be a nice start to the summer.

[Old Red]

I don't think giving Dalbec one more chance is a bad idea. Playing one or both of Cooper or Smith, everyday is not working.

 

A Dalbec/Kavadas platoon at 1B should not be any worse than Cooper/Smith, although many saw replacing Dalbec as essential a month ago.

 

There is no surer solution at 1B within our system, right now.

NO on Kavadas, and NO on Bobby D. Smith, and Cooper are Both here, because of Bobby D, so I don’t see the Red Sox going back to him.

[Nick]

To Moon.

 

I am hoping Slaten Whitlick and Liam H can replace Jansen/Martin.