A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Did we not need one? we knew had Mayer on the way but all prospects are suspects until they become big leaguers as one poster would say.

 

Also, we don't really have anything in the pipeline guaranteed to lockdown 2ND or really even looking that promising with Yorke falling from Grace.

 

I have high hopes, but low expectations for Story at 2nd. Grissom could slide right into their plans, a young cost controlled 22 year old with 6 years of team control for one year of a pitcher who doesn't fit into your future plans during a year coming off of a last place finish and you don't have a real chance at winning a world series? I think you should make that trade every single time, even if Grissom is a complete dud, thats the game you play when you trade for young talent, some guys pan out some don't. I'm not concerned because of a slow start, I'll be worried if he sucks after 500 at bats.

 

Yes, it's a trade you make when you're punting.

 

I was hoping we weren't punting this year, so that has a big impact on my attitude toward the trade.

[Maxbialystock]

Oh, so he's been lucky then. And others like Crawford or Houck have been unlucky at times. Got it. I think we'll see regression from a lot of these starters. One thing that would help is better IF defense.

 

I'm probably the world's leading advocate for this year's Sox rotation, but even I have to agree some regression is possible/likely.

 

However, I also think right now, 49 games into this season, this is the best Sox rotation in a long time--measured by the fact that the team ERA, 2.95, is just behind the Yankees' 2.92 for the best team ERA in MLB.

 

The 2007 Sox team ERA of 3.87 was 2d best to the Padres 3.70--for an entire season of 162 games. It was even better, 3.29, in the 11-3 postseason when the Sox beat the Angels, Guardians/Guardians, and Rockies. Back then starters were bargains: Schilling $13M; Beckett (the ace in 2007) $6M; Matsuzaka $6.33M; Wakefield $4M; and Lester $384K.

 

Flash forward to genius CBO David Dombrowski's 2019 Sox rotation, the one that couldn't even make it to the postseason: Price $31M; Sale $15M; Eovaldi $17M; Porcello $21M; ERod $4.3M. The 2019 Sox team ERA was 4.70 and ranked 19th in MLB.

 

Now contrast the 2007 Sox, who won the WS by sweeping the Rockies, with the 2019 Sox, who didn't make the postseason--and you have some idea of why JH fired genius DD.

[mvp 78]

No one was unhappy with Sale as much as they were frustrated with his frequent injuries and possibly unhappy with the length of his extension.

 

And the general attitude of the guy does depend heavily on his current health. Many were upset with Bloom for not trading Sale and his entire contract for nothing. And now many are upset with Breslow for trading Sale and getting back a young MLB player...

 

Bloom was dumping him for nothing? That was the reported trade?

[mvp 78]

Grissom still has just one extra base hit, and now has 13 K's and 1 walk.

 

He got an RBI and made a smooth play at 2b last night that Valdez would have kicked to the warning track.

[mvp 78]

Did we not need one? we knew had Mayer on the way but all prospects are suspects until they become big leaguers as one poster would say.

 

Also, we don't really have anything in the pipeline guaranteed to lockdown 2ND or really even looking that promising with Yorke falling from Grace.

 

I have high hopes, but low expectations for Story at 2nd. Grissom could slide right into their plans, a young cost controlled 22 year old with 6 years of team control for one year of a pitcher who doesn't fit into your future plans during a year coming off of a last place finish and you don't have a real chance at winning a world series? I think you should make that trade every single time, even if Grissom is a complete dud, thats the game you play when you trade for young talent, some guys pan out some don't. I'm not concerned because of a slow start, I'll be worried if he sucks after 500 at bats.

 

They have Trevor Story on the payroll for a few more years and Mayer coming up. That should be enough for MIF. Paulino is also steadily moving his way up the org and is having a fine year.

[mvp 78]

I'm probably the world's leading advocate for this year's Sox rotation, but even I have to agree some regression is possible/likely.

 

However, I also think right now, 49 games into this season, this is the best Sox rotation in a long time--measured by the fact that the team ERA, 2.95, is just behind the Yankees' 2.92 for the best team ERA in MLB.

 

The 2007 Sox team ERA of 3.87 was 2d best to the Padres 3.70--for an entire season of 162 games. It was even better, 3.29, in the 11-3 postseason when the Sox beat the Angels, Guardians/Guardians, and Rockies. Back then starters were bargains: Schilling $13M; Beckett (the ace in 2007) $6M; Matsuzaka $6.33M; Wakefield $4M; and Lester $384K.

 

Flash forward to genius CBO David Dombrowski's 2019 Sox rotation, the one that couldn't even make it to the postseason: Price $31M; Sale $15M; Eovaldi $17M; Porcello $21M; ERod $4.3M. The 2019 Sox team ERA was 4.70 and ranked 19th in MLB.

 

Now contrast the 2007 Sox, who won the WS by sweeping the Rockies, with the 2019 Sox, who didn't make the postseason--and you have some idea of why JH fired genius DD.

 

Let's revisit this at the end of the year. We've already had Giolito, Pivetta, Whitlock and Bello all hit the IL.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm probably the world's leading advocate for this year's Sox rotation, but even I have to agree some regression is possible/likely.

 

However, I also think right now, 49 games into this season, this is the best Sox rotation in a long time--measured by the fact that the team ERA, 2.95, is just behind the Yankees' 2.92 for the best team ERA in MLB.

 

The 2007 Sox team ERA of 3.87 was 2d best to the Padres 3.70--for an entire season of 162 games. It was even better, 3.29, in the 11-3 postseason when the Sox beat the Angels, Guardians/Guardians, and Rockies. Back then starters were bargains: Schilling $13M; Beckett (the ace in 2007) $6M; Matsuzaka $6.33M; Wakefield $4M; and Lester $384K.

 

Flash forward to genius CBO David Dombrowski's 2019 Sox rotation, the one that couldn't even make it to the postseason: Price $31M; Sale $15M; Eovaldi $17M; Porcello $21M; ERod $4.3M. The 2019 Sox team ERA was 4.70 and ranked 19th in MLB.

 

Now contrast the 2007 Sox, who won the WS by sweeping the Rockies, with the 2019 Sox, who didn't make the postseason--and you have some idea of why JH fired genius DD.

 

You do know that 2007 Red Sox rotation was being paid top of the market salaries in that particular year... except Lester, who was a rookie.

[Maxbialystock]

He got an RBI and made a smooth play at 2b last night that Valdez would have kicked to the warning track.

 

You must have some kind of deep prejudice against Valdez because the rest of us see that foot, the one that can kick a ball the warning track, as absolutely invaluable when it comes time for penalty kicks.

[moonslav59]

Grissom still has just one extra base hit, and now has 13 K's and 1 walk.

 

Grissom is your McGuire for 2024.

[Maxbialystock]

You do know that 2007 Red Sox rotation was being paid top of the market salaries in that particular year... except Lester, who was a rookie.

 

You could be right, but it's also true that they delivered.

[moonslav59]

Yes, it's a trade you make when you're punting.

 

I was hoping we weren't punting this year, so that has a big impact on my attitude toward the trade.

 

There was a good chance Grissom would have more value in 2024 than Sale.

 

While I do think the trade was more about 5 years tan 2024, there was a significant chance Grissom would out fWAR Sale in '24... maybe even 50-50.

[Bellhorn04]

Grissom is your McGuire for 2024.

 

Yeah, probably so. I have to get over my grudge about this trade.

 

A lot of it is just cathartic stuff, getting frustration out.

[Duran Is The Man]

I'm probably the world's leading advocate for this year's Sox rotation, but even I have to agree some regression is possible/likely.

 

However, I also think right now, 49 games into this season, this is the best Sox rotation in a long time--measured by the fact that the team ERA, 2.95, is just behind the Yankees' 2.92 for the best team ERA in MLB.

 

The 2007 Sox team ERA of 3.87 was 2d best to the Padres 3.70--for an entire season of 162 games. It was even better, 3.29, in the 11-3 postseason when the Sox beat the Angels, Guardians/Guardians, and Rockies. Back then starters were bargains: Schilling $13M; Beckett (the ace in 2007) $6M; Matsuzaka $6.33M; Wakefield $4M; and Lester $384K.

 

Flash forward to genius CBO David Dombrowski's 2019 Sox rotation, the one that couldn't even make it to the postseason: Price $31M; Sale $15M; Eovaldi $17M; Porcello $21M; ERod $4.3M. The 2019 Sox team ERA was 4.70 and ranked 19th in MLB.

 

Now contrast the 2007 Sox, who won the WS by sweeping the Rockies, with the 2019 Sox, who didn't make the postseason--and you have some idea of why JH fired genius DD.

 

yeah...DD, the same genius that won 3 straight ALE titles and the 2018 WS. this team -low ERA and all- wouldn't even make the playoffs if the season ended today. nice try with your DD bashing though.

[Maxbialystock]

Yes, it's a trade you make when you're punting.

 

I was hoping we weren't punting this year, so that has a big impact on my attitude toward the trade.

 

One more time. Like everyone else, I regret the loss of Sale and especially paying his salary while he has a great season for the Braves.

 

But at the same time the Sox have one of their best rotations ever without Sale. And their weakness this year is in the lineup, especially the infield which can't hit and is error-prone. I don't like Grissom so far, but acquiring him makes sense with regard to team needs.

[dgalehouse]

If you liked the Sale for Grissom trade when it happened, your only sensible position now is to say " let's wait a while before passing judgement." You can't possibly say that it is working out well so far. Not if you want to keep an ounce of credibility.

[mvp 78]

yeah...DD, the same genius that won 3 straight ALE titles and the 2018 WS. this team -low ERA and all- wouldn't even make the playoffs if the season ended today. nice try with your DD bashing though.

 

Unfair! We haven't had a chance to make some amazing trade deadline deals and have a good run at it! Sox are just a half game back of the Twinkies!!!

[Hugh2]

If you liked the Sale for Grissom trade when it happened, your only sensible position now is to say " let's wait a while before passing judgement." You can't possibly say that it is working out well so far. Not if you want to keep an ounce of credibility.

 

Fair, but who is saying they like this trade because it’s working out so far?

[Hugh2]

Yes, it's a trade you make when you're punting.

 

I was hoping we weren't punting this year, so that has a big impact on my attitude toward the trade.

 

That’s fair.

 

I think the Sox thought they could replace what they had in Sale with Giolito.

 

To be fair, seeing what Breslow/Bailey have done with this crop of pitching I really really would have liked to see what they may have been able to get out of a guy like Giolito

[notin]

Bloom was dumping him for nothing? That was the reported trade?

 

Questioning everyhting I say?

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/09/15/red-sox-turn-down-chris-sale-trade/ (Subscription required)

 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-fact-check-did-chaim-bloom-refuse-trade-chris-sale-exploring-details-controversial-move-focused-on-injured-star

 

 

And probably other better sources if you ever Google it...

[Nick]

Sale trade was made to get rid of the stench he was leaving in the dougout.

 

It was the death stench. He can throw perfect games for Atlanta for all I care.

 

He didn't earn his extension $$$$. Quit defending him.

 

His stench was so bad we paid him $17M to leave the park.

Edited May 22, 2024 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Questioning everyhting I say?

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/09/15/red-sox-turn-down-chris-sale-trade/ (Subscription required)

 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-fact-check-did-chaim-bloom-refuse-trade-chris-sale-exploring-details-controversial-move-focused-on-injured-star

 

 

And probably other better sources if you ever Google it...

 

You wrote "for nothing" but the article clearly says "for players."

[moonslav59]

You wrote "for nothing" but the article clearly says "for players."

 

Nothing but players...LOL.

[Hugh2]

If the season ended today and you wanted to judge per FWar, Duran would be a top 10 candidate for MVP, and Tanner Houck would be your Cy Young. Sox farm system is looking good, they should probably be on everyones top 10 mid season, I suspect they will be in some top 5's.

 

FO always said they'd spend when the time is right, they might get their chance this offseason.

[moonslav59]

If the season ended today and you wanted to judge per FWar, Duran would be a top 10 candidate for MVP, and Tanner Houck would be your Cy Young. Sox farm system is looking good, they should probably be on everyones top 10 mid season, I suspect they will be in some top 5's.

 

FO always said they'd spend when the time is right, they might get their chance this offseason.

 

The FO said a lot of things.

[notin]

You wrote "for nothing" but the article clearly says "for players."

 

 

Reportedly they were nothing players, which was why abloom turned it down…

[notin]

If the season ended today and you wanted to judge per FWar, Duran would be a top 10 candidate for MVP, and Tanner Houck would be your Cy Young. Sox farm system is looking good, they should probably be on everyones top 10 mid season, I suspect they will be in some top 5's.

 

FO always said they'd spend when the time is right, they might get their chance this offseason.

 

 

That’s BS. It’s spending that makes the time tight. Not the other way around…

[moonslav59]

Reportedly they were nothing players, which was why abloom turned it down…

 

We paid $17M and got a bum in Grissom, so what would be expected by paying the full contract?

[Hugh2]

That’s BS. It’s spending that makes the time tight. Not the other way around…

 

So you’re saying the FO might be full of crap?

 

I agree

[moonslav59]

So you’re saying the FO might be full of crap?

 

I agree

 

They can't even all get together and agree on the same lies.

[Maxbialystock]

That’s BS. It’s spending that makes the time tight. Not the other way around…

 

I think you mean, "It's spending that makes the time right." And I'm not sure I agree. To me spending is first and foremost a gamble, especially if the contract is for 5 or more years. The contracts for David Price and Chris Sale were absolute failures. My guess is that Story will be too--pretty much on a par with the Yankees contract for Ellsbury. As bad as Story's injuries have been, he also has yet to hit the ball with any regularity. Yoshida so far has failed.

 

Meanwhile, however, the combination of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, and Criswell has been terrific and at bargain basement prices. Same goes for Duran, Abreu, Wong, Rafaela, McGuire, O'Neill, Refsnyder, Casas, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Bernardino, Kelly, Slaten, Booser, and Weissert. Devers is no bargain, but his OPS of .925 is nothing to sneeze at.

 

And who are the non-bargains on the 2024 Sox? Mainly the guys on the IL and/or playing for someone else but paid by the Sox: Story, Giolito, Sale, Whitlock, Yoshida, and Turner.