A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

We will just have to see how the Sale trade plays out in the future. As of now, I think the general feeling around baseball is that the Sox were fleeced.

 

That's what I think too.

 

However, without Sale the Sox currently have the 2d best ERA in MLB, primarily because of the rotation (Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, and now Criswell). No one on Talksox can name a Red Sox team in the last 50 years that was ranked higher than 2d in team ERA.

 

As for Grissom, I didn't expect much from him and am fine with whoever else gets to play in his stead. Next year's middle infielders could include Story, Mayer, Rafaela, Hammond, and/or Gonzalez. Who needs freaking Grissom this year or next year?

 

I would be dishonest if I didn't admit I would love to have Sale on this Sox team. When he is the real Chris Sale, he is a joy to watch because he's probably the most professional pitcher I can remember in a Sox uniform. Focused, good defender, athletic, and with a pretty good array of pitches, made slightly better by the recent addition of a cut fastball.

[Old Red]

That's what I think too.

 

However, without Sale the Sox currently have the 2d best ERA in MLB, primarily because of the rotation (Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, and now Criswell). No one on Talksox can name a Red Sox team in the last 50 years that was ranked higher than 2d in team ERA.

 

As for Grissom, I didn't expect much from him and am fine with whoever else gets to play in his stead. Next year's middle infielders could include Story, Mayer, Rafaela, Hammond, and/or Gonzalez. Who needs freaking Grissom this year or next year?

 

I would be dishonest if I didn't admit I would love to have Sale on this Sox team. When he is the real Chris Sale, he is a joy to watch because he's probably the most professional pitcher I can remember in a Sox uniform. Focused, good defender, athletic, and with a pretty good array of pitches, made slightly better by the recent addition of a cut fastball.

Max you’ve beaten the ERA thing to death, and rightly so, but it’s still only a 500 team. ERA has been a great thing, but 4 injuries to starters already are not a good thing, and not a good sign this early in the season of things to come.

[Hugh2]

That's what I think too.

 

However, without Sale the Sox currently have the 2d best ERA in MLB, primarily because of the rotation (Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, and now Criswell). No one on Talksox can name a Red Sox team in the last 50 years that was ranked higher than 2d in team ERA.

 

As for Grissom, I didn't expect much from him and am fine with whoever else gets to play in his stead. Next year's middle infielders could include Story, Mayer, Rafaela, Hammond, and/or Gonzalez. Who needs freaking Grissom this year or next year?

 

I would be dishonest if I didn't admit I would love to have Sale on this Sox team. When he is the real Chris Sale, he is a joy to watch because he's probably the most professional pitcher I can remember in a Sox uniform. Focused, good defender, athletic, and with a pretty good array of pitches, made slightly better by the recent addition of a cut fastball.

 

Do you really trust Story to stay healthy?

 

Why not root for the kid to reach the potential everyone says he has. You can always trade away a logjam or move guys off position. I’d keep Grissom on the roster.

[moonslav59]

Do you really trust Story to stay healthy?

 

Sale had a worse injury track record than Story, and it wasn't even close.

[Maxbialystock]

Max you’ve beaten the ERA thing to death, and rightly so, but it’s still only a 500 team. ERA has been a great thing, but 4 injuries to starters already are not a good thing, and not a good sign this early in the season of things to come.

 

It's a sign of age when you beat things to death, so you're right. I do think the pitching has been miraculously good, but I also think the hitting can and must improve if the Sox are going to the postseason. Right now I'm definitely on uppers (caffeine, blueberry pancakes, and acetaminophen) and therefore believe the last 3 games, all wins, all with the Sox scoring 5 or more runs, are a harbinger of what could in fact happen.

 

That can change, of course, if tomorrow night Devers makes a key error--in which case he will again be the worst superstar in the history of the universe--and the Sox lose, say, 3 to freaking 1. Reacting is not enough. Over-reacting is the only way a real fan should conduct himself.

[Maxbialystock]

Sale had a worse injury track record than Story, and it wasn't even close.

 

True. But Sale was really good when he was good. And we saw that in 2017 and 2018--at least, before August. He was especially lousy in the postseason.

 

Plus the elbow thing was kind of inevitable for Sale. The bike, I agree, no excuse, but I've ridden bikes competitively, in traffic and in the country, up and down steep hills, etc, and never had a freak injury like his.

 

Plus we have yet to see a Story that can hit, which means he's just a good glove, which are a dime a dozen. Plus his injuries suggest he is injury-prone. Back in April all he did was dive for a ball, which infielders are expected to do all the freaking time, but this time he's gone for a whole season or more. I think he's another Ellsbury.

[Maxbialystock]

Do you really trust Story to stay healthy?

 

Why not root for the kid to reach the potential everyone says he has. You can always trade away a logjam or move guys off position. I’d keep Grissom on the roster.

 

No, I don't "trust" Story, who is probably another Ellsbury, especially the one who signed that insane 7 year contract with the Yankees. But right now Story is ours, and it's possible, if unlikely, he will not only stay healthy next season, but also--and this really will be a shock--show he can hit the dadgum ball. This year he's out, so all those other wannabes get their shot. And they will get more shots next year and/or the year after.

[moonslav59]

True. But Sale was really good when he was good. And we saw that in 2017 and 2018--at least, before August. He was especially lousy in the postseason.

 

Plus the elbow thing was kind of inevitable for Sale. The bike, I agree, no excuse, but I've ridden bikes competitively, in traffic and in the country, up and down steep hills, etc, and never had a freak injury like his.

 

Plus we have yet to see a Story that can hit, which means he's just a good glove, which are a dime a dozen. Plus his injuries suggest he is injury-prone. Back in April all he did was dive for a ball, which infielders are expected to do all the freaking time, but this time he's gone for a whole season or more. I think he's another Ellsbury.

 

I get it. I loved Sale. I had high hopes he'd return, year after year. I waited 5 years, and I'm supposed to be pissed off we didn't wait 6.

 

Sure, it sucks, but WTH.

 

Story was really good just 3 years ago. It just wasn't with us, so it doesn't seem to count. I guess I'll wait 3 more years on Story, and he'll be even with Sale.

 

Granted, Story at his best wasn't close to Sale at his best. Sale was the very best for a 4-5 year period... maybe longer.

 

I'm still holding out hope for Grissom and wish Sale the very best. The trade made some sense at the time, and might still prove to ve a good or decent one.

 

That Beni trade, almost everyone hated, looks a lot different now, right?

 

I'm not hearing much about the Verdugo trade, anymore, but maybe he'll catch on fire, and that talk will start up, again. This is baseball...

 

Ain't it great!

[moonslav59]

No, I don't "trust" Story, who is probably another Ellsbury, especially the one who signed that insane 7 year contract with the Yankees. But right now Story is ours, and it's possible, if unlikely, he will not only stay healthy next season, but also--and this really will be a shock--show he can hit the dadgum ball. This year he's out, so all those other wannabes get their shot. And they will get more shots next year and/or the year after.

 

This year's injury was about as freakish as a bike accident, and it did happen as a result of lack of hustle and grit.

 

I don't know what to think about Story. His book with the Sox is still full of blank pages.

 

I'm not sure what to think about Whitlock, Gio and Hendriks, either.

 

It's like the Yankee injury bug has mutated.

Edited May 22, 2024 by moonslav59

[Nick]

I'm happy watching our athletic trio in OF.

We are building a contender the right way. Sale wouldn't be in my future plans.

[moonslav59]

I'm happy watching our athletic trio in OF.

We are building a contender the right way. Sale wouldn't be in my future plans.

 

That was my point, when I said nobody was talking a further extension of Sale.

 

Many were still yapping about the failure of the last one.

[Hugh2]

That was my point, when I said nobody was talking a further extension of Sale.

 

Many were still yapping about the failure of the last one.

 

If you could go pre Sale trade there was no one in here happy with Sale, and probably many salivating at the opportunity to offboard him.

 

I don't think they're purposely being hypocritical, rather people want proven MLB talent. Grissom wasn't a name they recognized, and the fact that he got hurt and off to a slow start certaily didn't help his cause.

 

Some of us also recognize that a 34 year old pitcher who had not been healthy for a significant period of time since he was in his 20's isnt' excatly a valuable asset. It's very easy to look at Sales performance now and critisize the trade, and we are the kings of that here on Sox talk. The hindsight is strong in here.

 

It will be interesting to see how the narrative changes if Grissom turns into a big pick up. I suspect many will come around, and some won't, some will always be against the trade. The bar Grissom will have to pass is he will have to be a regular all-star. Fans will always project out the player they loses absolute 100% ceiling and expect that guranteed in return and they will discount years of control, downside, age, risk, performance etc etc etc.

 

It's nice to see Sale healthy and performing well, I hope he can keep it up, he always seemed like a deserving guy to me. I hope Grissom works out well for us too, he's starting to show signs off life the last several games.

[mvp 78]

This year's injury was about as freakish as a bike accident, and it did happen as a result of lack of hustle and grit.

 

I don't know what to think about Story. His book with the Sox is still full of blank pages.

 

I'm not sure what to think about Whitlock, Gio and Hendriks, either.

 

It's like the Yankee injury bug has mutated.

 

So "freakish" that it happened to old man Xander a few days ago.

[mvp 78]

I'm happy watching our athletic trio in OF.

We are building a contender the right way. Sale wouldn't be in my future plans.

 

Neither would be Story.

[moonslav59]

The team is now 6-1 in Criswell starts. His ERA remains below 3.00, despite some metrics saying he may be getting lucky.

 

The run support and better pen, when he starts has been lucky, but this guy is getting the job done.

 

Our staff has a 33% GS rate, which is below the 39% league average, but I'm pretty sure we have more nearmisses than almost anyone else. Some say the 3ER in 6IP choice of stats is flawed, and it does seem like a 4.50 ERA is not "quality,"but I feel like going 5 IP allowing 2 ERs is more "quality," especially these days. Hell, 4 IP w 1 ER allowed is better, too. Using this as a criteria, here are the Sox staff numbers:

 

4 IP 0-1 ERs

5 IP 0-2 ERs

7 IP 0-3 ERS

9 IP 0-4 ERS

 

QS/GS Traditional/ Pitcher/ Modified QS

8/10 Houck 8/10 (add a 5.1, 1ER, subtract 6IP, 3 ER)

5/10 Crawford 8/10 (subtracting one 6IP, 3ER)

2/5 Pivetta 4/5

1/7 Bello 5/7

0/4 Whitlock 4/4

0/7 Criswell 5/7 (one game was 4 IP, 2 ER)

 

You may disagree with my formula, and that's fine, but it's pretty amazing that these 6 SP'ers have these many modified QSs:

 

34/43 or 79%!

 

If you count the 2 actual QS (6 IP/ 3ER) I took away, we'd be at 36/43 or 84% of our starts have been quality or good starts. Some of the remaining starts were not all that bad, too.

 

[mvp 78]

The team is now 6-1 in Criswell starts. His ERA remains below 3.00, despite some metrics saying he may be getting lucky.

 

The run support and better pen, when he starts has been lucky, but this guy is getting the job done.

 

 

Oh, so he's been lucky then. And others like Crawford or Houck have been unlucky at times. Got it. I think we'll see regression from a lot of these starters. One thing that would help is better IF defense.

[moonslav59]

Oh, so he's been lucky then. And others like Crawford or Houck have been unlucky at times. Got it. I think we'll see regression from a lot of these starters. One thing that would help is better IF defense.

 

Weren't you the one implying Criswell was lucky due to his much higher FIP than ERA?

 

Yes, we all know some of our SP'ers have been much luckier than others, when it comes to W-Ls and team W-Ls. That tends to even out over the long run, but not always over a season.

[Bellhorn04]

That was my point, when I said nobody was talking a further extension of Sale.

 

Of course no one was talking extension. I don't know why you keep repeating that. The Sox already had an option on him for 2025, and obviously with a guy of his age and injury history you're going to proceed with caution.

[Bellhorn04]

If you could go pre Sale trade there was no one in here happy with Sale, and probably many salivating at the opportunity to offboard him.

 

I was unhappy that he was injured so much. I think that's different from being "unhappy with Sale".

[mvp 78]

Weren't you the one implying Criswell was lucky due to his much higher FIP than ERA?

 

Yes, we all know some of our SP'ers have been much luckier than others, when it comes to W-Ls and team W-Ls. That tends to even out over the long run, but not always over a season.

 

Yes.

 

You said "team has been 6-1 in Criswell starts" and mentioned run support. We have discussed issues with lack of run support for other starters that were shutting down other lineups. That's why I wrote "unlucky at times" and followed it up with "we'll see regression from a lot of these starters" since Crawford DOES HAVE a significant difference between ERA and xFIP. Criswell's ERA has already dropped a full run just over the previous 3 starts, which I believed would happen.

 

Please, do us all a favor and read the posts you are responding to today.

[mvp 78]

I was unhappy that he was injured so much. I think that's different from being "unhappy with Sale".

 

He always busted his ass to get back on the mound. Can't be mad at him for that.

[Nick]

Neither would be Story.

 

I agree.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He always busted his ass to get back on the mound. Can't be mad at him for that.

 

Sox fans were just mad they didn't have their ace starter taking regular turns in the rotation the past half decade.

 

No one really cared that Sale had the highest salary on the payroll... except maybe the guy who signed the paychecks.

 

It is stupefying that the Red Sox had a pitcher who broke his rib pitching, and now have a batter who wrecked his core batting. If they tried to hire Sale to pitch BP to rehabbing Casas, both might be rolling on the ground, writhing in pain, before one throw even reached the plate.

[moonslav59]

Of course no one was talking extension. I don't know why you keep repeating that. The Sox already had an option on him for 2025, and obviously with a guy of his age and injury history you're going to proceed with caution.

 

Here is why I mention it: before the trade, most of the talk about Sale was about the burden his extension has been on our restricted budget, and how we could not count on him for anywhere near a full season of pitching. There were also doubts about what level of performance we might get from the aging SP'er, even if he was able to give us 28-33 starts.

 

I'm not saying anyone is re-writing history, by now complaining about trading him away, but I do think the rosy view of the 2024 Sale is a lot different from what it has been for the last 3-4 years. I get that this is no revisionist posting, as many disliked the trade at the time. I did, too, initially.

 

I do think there was obvious merit to the trade, as were looking down the road, perhaps beyond 2024, and Sale was not in our long term plans. I bet a poll would have shown most posters would have predicted we would not take the 2025 Sale option, had we done one, last winter. Now, the view has changes, for obvious reasons.

 

Our team had the 30th fWAR at 2B from 2022 to 2023. There were strong reasons to make this trade, beyond just fattening JH's wallet.

 

[notin]

I was unhappy that he was injured so much. I think that's different from being "unhappy with Sale".

 

No one was unhappy with Sale as much as they were frustrated with his frequent injuries and possibly unhappy with the length of his extension.

 

And the general attitude of the guy does depend heavily on his current health. Many were upset with Bloom for not trading Sale and his entire contract for nothing. And now many are upset with Breslow for trading Sale and getting back a young MLB player...

[Bellhorn04]

No one was unhappy with Sale as much as they were frustrated with his frequent injuries and possibly unhappy with the length of his extension.

 

And the general attitude of the guy does depend heavily on his current health. Many were upset with Bloom for not trading Sale and his entire contract for nothing. And now many are upset with Breslow for trading Sale and getting back a young MLB player...

 

My basic position is that it was a needless trade. Sale's payroll cost was no longer a significant issue, and we really didn't need another middle infield prospect that much.

[moonslav59]

No one was unhappy with Sale as much as they were frustrated with his frequent injuries and possibly unhappy with the length of his extension.

 

And the general attitude of the guy does depend heavily on his current health. Many were upset with Bloom for not trading Sale and his entire contract for nothing. And now many are upset with Breslow for trading Sale and getting back a young MLB player...

 

There was also concern that even if he was able to stay healthy for a full season, how close could he come to the great Sale of 2018 and before?

 

He had 25 starts in 2019 and 20 in 2023. Between, he had 11 in 3 total seasons. That's 56 in 5 seasons, or about 11 per season.

 

2019-2023:

4.16 ERA (114 ERA+)

3.56 FIP/1.14 WHIP

This is pretty good, but not close to vintage Sale.

 

2010-2018:

2.89 ERA (144 ERA+)

2.86 FIP/1.03 WHIP

 

Even better from 2014-2018:

2.89 (145 ERA+)

2.69/0.99

 

Surely, I'd take the 2019-2023 Sale for 28-33 starts in 2024, if I knew he'd have given us even that. I'm not sure I'd take that over the promise of 5 years of Grissom, but it was a close call, even assuming he'd go 28-33 starts.

 

The fact that he is doing great, and Grissom is sucking doesn't change the ideas of the past winter.

 

It was a tough trade to make. I disliked it, at first. I like it less now, than I did on opening day, but this deal's grade is still in the solid "incomplete" category.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Grissom still has just one extra base hit, and now has 13 K's and 1 walk.

[Hugh2]

My basic position is that it was a needless trade. Sale's payroll cost was no longer a significant issue, and we really didn't need another middle infield prospect that much.

 

Did we not need one? we knew had Mayer on the way but all prospects are suspects until they become big leaguers as one poster would say.

 

Also, we don't really have anything in the pipeline guaranteed to lockdown 2ND or really even looking that promising with Yorke falling from Grace.

 

I have high hopes, but low expectations for Story at 2nd. Grissom could slide right into their plans, a young cost controlled 22 year old with 6 years of team control for one year of a pitcher who doesn't fit into your future plans during a year coming off of a last place finish and you don't have a real chance at winning a world series? I think you should make that trade every single time, even if Grissom is a complete dud, thats the game you play when you trade for young talent, some guys pan out some don't. I'm not concerned because of a slow start, I'll be worried if he sucks after 500 at bats.

[Duran Is The Man]

My basic position is that it was a needless trade. Sale's payroll cost was no longer a significant issue, and we really didn't need another middle infield prospect that much.

 

you misspelled suspect.