A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

To Moon.

 

I am hoping Slaten Whitlick and Liam H can replace Jansen/Martin.

 

They might: they could, but I'd like to see us add a solid closer, this winter.

 

At minimum, we need a TOR SP'er, a closer and maybe...

 

Solid power RHB

SP depth

 

2-4 quality players- no half measures.

 

Let the depth be filled by the kids.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't think giving Dalbec one more chance is a bad idea. Playing one or both of Cooper or Smith, everyday is not working.

 

A Dalbec/Kavadas platoon at 1B should not be any worse than Cooper/Smith, although many saw replacing Dalbec as essential a month ago.

 

There is no surer solution at 1B within our system, right now.

 

Thanks for saying that about Dalbec.

 

But I really like your theoretical roster for next year.

[Maxbialystock]

I’m not big on Smith, or Cooper either, but at the moment that is what the Red Sox are going with and most likely will until Casas comes back.

 

I almost like Dalbec right now, but I can't disagree with anything you've said.

[notin]

I don't think giving Dalbec one more chance is a bad idea. Playing one or both of Cooper or Smith, everyday is not working.

 

A Dalbec/Kavadas platoon at 1B should not be any worse than Cooper/Smith, although many saw replacing Dalbec as essential a month ago.

 

There is no surer solution at 1B within our system, right now.

 

Dalbec has been in decline 3 straight years and has struck out in over 50% of his plate appearances since 2023. And HE is the guy who deserves a second chance? The only way I agree with that is if people concede Smith and Cooper haven’t had their first one yet.

 

Also, it is very possible a Dalbec/Kavadas solution is worse…

[moonslav59]

Dalbec has been in decline 3 straight years and has struck out in over 50% of his plate appearances since 2023. And HE is the guy who deserves a second chance? The only way I agree with that is if people concede Smith and Cooper haven’t had their first one yet.

 

Also, it is very possible a Dalbec/Kavadas solution is worse…

 

No doubt.

 

On the 3 year decline by Dalbec. You are correct. His K rate is frightening. In no way am I optimistic about Dalbec. He's done well in AAA, before, only to crap the bed, when called up.

 

The decline of Cooper and Smit is a real, too. While their K rates are not close to Bobby Dee's, their decline is just as long, if not longer.

 

Cooper is with his 4th team in 2 years. Could that be viewed second or third chances? His decline began in 2021, although, like Dalbec, that was a good season (128 OPS+.)

2022: 112 OPS+

2023: 94 OPS+ (2 teams)

2024: 78 OPS+ (2 teams)

 

Smith has been on 3 teams in 3 years and was not even on a ML roster to start 2024, so one could easily say 2023 and 2024 are his second and third chances. His moments of good play was from 2019-2020 (before Dalbec's 2020-2021 good stretch)

Smith (19-20) 150 OPS+ in just 396 PAs

Dalbec (20-21) 114 OPS+ in 545 PAs (way more PAs but not as good.)

Smith dropped off a cliff after 2020. It was not slow & steady decline. He has sucked since then. He has had an 84 OPS+ since 2021 in 1304 PAs.

 

True, Dalbec's OPS+ is 64 since 2021 and 174 Ks in 465 PAs looks undeserving of another chance. I get that. My point is Smith and Cooper also look unworthy of more chances, too.

 

It's a lose-lose type of choice.Kavadas is the unknown. We kinda know what the other three can and might do.

 

 

 

 

[notin]

No doubt.

 

On the 3 year decline by Dalbec. You are correct. His K rate is frightening. In no way am I optimistic about Dalbec. He's done well in AAA, before, only to crap the bed, when called up.

 

The decline of Cooper and Smit is a real, too. While their K rates are not close to Bobby Dee's, their decline is just as long, if not longer.

 

Cooper is with his 4th team in 2 years. Could that be viewed second or third chances? His decline began in 2021, although, like Dalbec, that was a good season (128 OPS+.)

2022: 112 OPS+

2023: 94 OPS+ (2 teams)

2024: 78 OPS+ (2 teams)

 

Smith has been on 3 teams in 3 years and was not even on a ML roster to start 2024, so one could easily say 2023 and 2024 are his second and third chances. His moments of good play was from 2019-2020 (before Dalbec's 2020-2021 good stretch)

Smith (19-20) 150 OPS+ in just 396 PAs

Dalbec (20-21) 114 OPS+ in 545 PAs (way more PAs but not as good.)

Smith dropped off a cliff after 2020. It was not slow & steady decline. He has sucked since then. He has had an 84 OPS+ since 2021 in 1304 PAs.

 

True, Dalbec's OPS+ is 64 since 2021 and 174 Ks in 465 PAs looks undeserving of another chance. I get that. My point is Smith and Cooper also look unworthy of more chances, too.

 

It's a lose-lose type of choice.Kavadas is the unknown. We kinda know what the other three can and might do.

 

 

 

 

 

Smith and Cooper are far from an envious duo, but Dalbec and Kavadas would be change for the sake of change. Breslow had the chance to promote Kavadas and passed for Smith.

 

I’d say Cooper and Smith have a low ceiling (especially Smith) but there is a greater chance both of them improve than of Dalbec rediscovering 2020-2021, and of Kavadas making any sort of immediate impact. These players have a combined 120PA and you’re already giving up on them. How long would Kavadas/Dalbec get? And does that include Dalbec’s horrific start this year?

 

I mean, Cooper still has only 52 PAs in Boston. Why is that enough? We knew he was hitting major league pitching as recently as earlier this month…

Edited May 27, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

Smith and Cooper are far from an envious duo, but Dalbec and Kavadas would be change for the sake of change. Breslow had the chance to promote Kavadas and passed for Smith.

 

I’d say Cooper and Smith have a low ceiling (especially Smith) but there is a greater chance both of them improve than of Dalbec rediscovering 2020-2021, and of Kavadas making any sort of immediate impact. These players have a combined 120PA and you’re already giving up on them. How long would Kavadas/Dalbec get? And does that include Dalbec’s horrific start this year?

 

I mean, Cooper still has only 52 PAs in Boston. Why is that enough? We knew he was hitting major league pitching as recently as earlier this month…

 

I'm not giving up on them over their meager sample size since joining the Sox. They have both sucked for 3 years- just like Dalbec.

 

I do think Cooper still has some hope, but Smith has 3+ years of doing nothing- Dalbec is 2+ years. Kavadas is raking in AAA, and his BB rate is a second plus to his power. I know AAA success is not always a good predictor, but I think he could be given a look over Smith. The Dalbec vs Cooper choice is close to a coin-toss, to me. I'd be fine with sticking with Cooper for a while longer.

[Bellhorn04]

Cooper and Smith are mediocre at best. Dalbec is done. The only real question is why they don't want to promote Kavadas. He's got power against RH pitching. There are holes everywhere else in his game. Maybe they think he's got no better chance than Dalbec of producing.

[moonslav59]

Cooper and Smith are mediocre at best. Dalbec is done. The only real question is why they don't want to promote Kavadas. He's got power against RH pitching. There are holes everywhere else in his game. Maybe they think he's got no better chance than Dalbec of producing.

 

Sounds good, to me.

 

My domer bias aside.

[Maxbialystock]

dalbec has been in decline 3 straight years and has struck out in over 50% of his plate appearances since 2023. And he is the guy who deserves a second chance? The only way i agree with that is if people concede smith and cooper haven’t had their first one yet.

 

Also, it is very possible a dalbec/kavadas solution is worse…

 

ok, ok.

[Bellhorn04]

Kavadas's Worcester numbers look great. A very nice K/BB ratio. Maybe they don't put much stock in Worcester numbers. I'm at the point that I'm thinking they don't have much to lose. We could see it happen some time soon.

[moonslav59]

Kavadas's Worcester numbers look great. A very nice K/BB ratio. Maybe they don't put much stock in Worcester numbers. I'm at the point that I'm thinking they don't have much to lose. We could see it happen some time soon.

 

We are just talking about a platoon 1Bman, until Casas returns.

[Bellhorn04]

We are just talking about a platoon 1Bman, until Casas returns.

 

On a team with little to lose.

[moonslav59]

On a team with little to lose.

 

Yup, and why not find out if Kavadas is maybe worth Rule 5 protection for this winter?

[Nick]

Yup, and why not find out if Kavadas is maybe worth Rule 5 protection for this winter?

 

I agree with you. Smith and Cooper are veterans are they not.

 

This is the year of discovery. Nothing will come out of Coop and Smith in terms if future.

 

Why not give young guys the chance.

 

I don't see us making the playoffs. We just don't have enough.

[Duran Is The Man]

I agree with you. Smith and Cooper are veterans are they not.

 

This is the year of discovery. Nothing will come out of Coop and Smith in terms if future.

 

Why not give young guys the chance.

 

I don't see us making the playoffs. We just don't have enough.

 

what you, Moon and Bell said makes so much sense that it makes me wonder what the hell is going on in the Sox front office. in fact, i've wondered what the hell is going on there the last 4 1/2 years.

[notin]

Kavadas's Worcester numbers look great. A very nice K/BB ratio. Maybe they don't put much stock in Worcester numbers. I'm at the point that I'm thinking they don't have much to lose. We could see it happen some time soon.

 

Kavadas was an option when they brought in Cooper and Smith. Usually you do the internal ones first, since they’re easier to undo of they don’t work out. But with Cooper (DFA) and Smith (opt out) becoming available when they did, they got first shot.

 

The problem is Kavadas and Dalbec could absolutely be worse, despite biased rationale to the contrary. Heck Dalbec is already worse. But to make room for Kavadas, you have to DFA one of the current first baseman. Meaning if Kavadas is worse, then what?

[Randy Red Sox]

I like the idea extending Houck and Crawford back in February. But their prices are going up as with the success. Crawford is slowing down, possibly related to workload. Houck will eventually as well. But this is inevitable, and not a reason to not extend them…

 

my concern Crawford is that I wonder if MLB hitters will catch up with his unorthodox delivery. He seems to shorter the ball.

[Randy Red Sox]

I like the idea extending Houck and Crawford back in February. But their prices are going up as with the success. Crawford is slowing down, possibly related to workload. Houck will eventually as well. But this is inevitable, and not a reason to not extend them…

 

my concern Crawford is that I wonder if MLB hitters will catch up with his unorthodox delivery. He seems to shortarm the ball.

[Randy Red Sox]

I see our latest BBB P addition fared well today

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Memorial Day marks the One-Third mark of the MLB season. Is it still early for the .500 Red Sox? Compared to the 2023 Sox, many think this season has shown improvement, because of the rotation and better overall defense. When we consider those two factors and look back on last year, this version has to be better...

 

... but remember this: the '23 Red Sox were nine game over .500 at the end of July, when the front office rewarded players and coaches by acquiring zero reinforcements of any significance for the stretch run. The Sox were still eight over .500 as late as August 24 -- and then dropped off a cliff, losing 24 of their final 34.

 

Imagine a way the current Red Sox -- without hitters like Casas, Yoshida, Story, Verdugo and Turner in the batting order -- can go nine games over .500 in the next two months. O'Neill, Abreu and Rafaela have had their moments, but even if they improve, will this offense have enough to contend?

 

Where will help come from? What's more plausible: Breslow bringing in legitimate talent -- which would have to mean "painful" trades of prospects -- or the promotion of some of those prospects? Lean to the latter -- if there is any consistency from the front office still overrun by the same dozen assistant VPs over the past five years, they won't trade anyone they think might someday be a big leaguer that they only have to pay minimum wage to promote.

[Bellhorn04]

Kavadas was an option when they brought in Cooper and Smith. Usually you do the internal ones first, since they’re easier to undo of they don’t work out. But with Cooper (DFA) and Smith (opt out) becoming available when they did, they got first shot.

 

The problem is Kavadas and Dalbec could absolutely be worse, despite biased rationale to the contrary. Heck Dalbec is already worse. But to make room for Kavadas, you have to DFA one of the current first baseman. Meaning if Kavadas is worse, then what?

 

The team is 10-14 in May, averaging less than 4 runs a game. Smith and Cooper are OPSing about .550. It really and truly can't get much worse. And even if it does, so what. 2024 doesn't matter. Maybe Kavadas hits a few long balls and gives the fans something.

[notin]

The team is 10-14 in May, averaging less than 4 runs a game. Smith and Cooper are OPSing about .550. It really and truly can't get much worse. And even if it does, so what. 2024 doesn't matter. Maybe Kavadas hits a few long balls and gives the fans something.

 

And maybe he OPSs .450 and the only 1b option left is Dalbec.

 

I’d give Smith and Cooper a bit longer. Cooper had an OPS well over .700 with the Cubs earlier this month. Do people think he forgot how to hit since then? Or is it maybe that these sample sizes are just very small? Would Kavadas get more than 50-60 PA to prove himself?

[Bellhorn04]

And maybe he OPSs .450 and the only 1b option left is Dalbec.

 

I’d give Smith and Cooper a bit longer. Cooper had an OPS well over .700 with the Cubs earlier this month. Do people think he forgot how to hit since then? Or is it maybe that these sample sizes are just very small? Would Kavadas get more than 50-60 PA to prove himself?

 

Just replace Smith with Kavadas and keep Cooper. That's what moon's been saying. I already said Dalbec is done.

 

We didn't get Smith and Cooper on a package deal.

[Randy Red Sox]

They might: they could, but I'd like to see us add a solid closer, this winter.

 

At minimum, we need a TOR SP'er, a closer and maybe...

 

Solid power RHB

SP depth

 

2-4 quality players- no half measures.

 

Let the depth be filled by the kids.

 

BTW- do you still thing the Sox should have signed Montgomery?

[mvp 78]

Kavadas's Worcester numbers look great. A very nice K/BB ratio. Maybe they don't put much stock in Worcester numbers. I'm at the point that I'm thinking they don't have much to lose. We could see it happen some time soon.

 

The Speier article from last week listed some of the concerns: bad defense, platoon bat that can't hit decent velo or breaking balls.

[mvp 78]

BTW- do you still thing the Sox should have signed Montgomery?

 

Yes, no Spring Training and has 7 starts with only 1 bad start (3 IP, 6 ER that is skewing his stats).

[Bellhorn04]

The Speier article from last week listed some of the concerns: bad defense, platoon bat that can't hit decent velo or breaking balls.

 

And Smith has been awful in every area. I don't see where there's a lot to lose.

[notin]

Just replace Smith with Kavadas and keep Cooper. That's what moon's been saying. I already said Dalbec is done.

 

We didn't get Smith and Cooper on a package deal.

 

That might happen at some point. But do the Sox swap out every player who struggles for 50-60 PA? That level of impatience is not likely to be productive…

[moonslav59]

I agree with you. Smith and Cooper are veterans are they not.

 

This is the year of discovery. Nothing will come out of Coop and Smith in terms if future.

 

Why not give young guys the chance.

 

I don't see us making the playoffs. We just don't have enough.

 

Neither Cooper or Smith have done much for 2-3 years. This not about one bad month with the Sox.

 

They have both sucked for about as long as Dalbec or even longer. Their declines began 3-4 years ago.

 

I'm fine with keeping Dalbec in AAA, or even DFA'ing him, if we need a slot on the 40, but I think Kavadas should get a chance to at least platoon with Copper at 1B.

 

Can we please stop DH'ing Cooper and Smith? I'd rather see DHam, Wong/McGuire or Romy DH, as yucky as that sounds.