A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Hugh2]

One could say the Mets 2023 season might be a deterrent for any owner thinking of going Steve Cohen. I don’t believe this though because Cohen has a lot more money than a lot of these guys and seems to add fandom into his decisions more than business where’s most owners want to make a buck.

 

Over inflated liabilities is a good way to lose money in the long run.

 

Well, s*** man, we gonna find out soon enough.

[Bellhorn04]

The penalties, that get very steep after 2-3 consecutive years over seem to be heavily influencing teams decisions. I can see a franchise like SD that thinks they have a legit chance of getting a World Series taking that swing. But I doubt they will set themselves up to live over like Cohen has done with the Mets.

 

Paying 100% tax and losing your picks will destroy a franchise, probably won’t hurt much one year.

 

It’s like smoking crack. Not a great decision, but you’ll get high and have a good time. Now go do it every day and watch it ruin your life.

 

OTOH maybe John Henry became too gun-shy about big contracts and luxury tax, and that played a big role in things like losing Mookie Betts and putting .500 teams on the field in his new CBO's 3rd and 4th years with the team.

[oldtimer]

One could say the Mets 2023 season might be a deterrent for any owner thinking of going Steve Cohen. I don’t believe this though because Cohen has a lot more money than a lot of these guys and seems to add fandom into his decisions more than business where’s most owners want to make a buck.

 

Over inflated liabilities is a good way to lose money in the long run.

 

Well, s*** man, we gonna find out soon enough.

 

What's the old joke about the best ways to lose money? Fast women, slow horses and running a ML baseball team? The best idea is to run things in a businesslike way but make wise decisions. Spooning out money unwisely leads to Mets like performance.

[Bellhorn04]

What's the old joke about the best ways to lose money? Fast women, slow horses and running a ML baseball team? The best idea is to run things in a businesslike way but make wise decisions. Spooning out money unwisely leads to Mets like performance.

 

I've always liked this joke too: "I spent most of it on wine, women and song. The rest I wasted."

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox under Bloom are obviously trying to run things in a businesslike way and make wise decisions. Are they succeeding? Hard to say. The farm is improving, yes, and the payroll is more or less under control. But the payroll is still pretty high, they've invested $550 million in 3 players, and they're a .500 team for the second year in a row.

[Hugh2]

What's the old joke about the best ways to lose money? Fast women, slow horses and running a ML baseball team? The best idea is to run things in a businesslike way but make wise decisions. Spooning out money unwisely leads to Mets like performance.

 

I would offer my own critique with the simple change to “all women”

[Hugh2]

The Red Sox under Bloom are obviously trying to run things in a businesslike way and make wise decisions. Are they succeeding? Hard to say. The farm is improving, yes, and the payroll is more or less under control. But the payroll is still pretty high, they've invested $550 million in 3 players, and they're a .500 team for the second year in a row.

 

Given their long term success, the Sox can be forgiven for a subpar season here and there. But too much losing for too long will result in a dramatic drop in revenue.

 

Henry has shown a willingness to spend, big at times, even set the market and go over. Not like LAD, or perhaps the new age Mets but he does over the long term

 

Because it’s been a few years since he’s made, or authorized such a strategy makes it easy to believe he’s a cheapie with a change of heart. I get that opinion and why some feel that way

 

But he’s not dumb, he knows he can’t put bad to mediocre teams out there year after year and not expect his finances to drop.

 

This team is a winning team, you are what your record is. They have some good young talent, they have some payroll flexibility and more young talent trickling its way upward towards Boston.

 

I know the past three years is horrible precedence for this opinion. But I’d be shocked if he doesn’t switch gears this offseason.

 

This is why I’ve been predicting for a while that I expect the Sox to be BIG time players in the starting pitching market this year.

 

That makes the rotation better and the bullpen better when you can have 2-3 of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford in there. With Rafaela coming up, Story healthy (hold our breath into 2024) the defense looks like it should be better behind that pitching as well.

 

I truly feel this team with its upward projection next year could be a true contender with some good quality pitching added.

 

Opinions are like *******s, we all got one and this is mine. I’ve been wrong before but I have to believe Bloom and Henry can see this as well. The fan base is restless. And even those who haven’t turned on them and want a change will eventually do so. Everyone has a breaking point.

 

To me, it just makes too much sense to not go big.

 

Now maybe that’s not Nola, it doesn’t have to be

[moonslav59]

Given their long term success, the Sox can be forgiven for a subpar season here and there. But too much losing for too long will result in a dramatic drop in revenue.

 

Henry has shown a willingness to spend, big at times, even set the market and go over. Not like LAD, or perhaps the new age Mets but he does over the long term

 

Because it’s been a few years since he’s made, or authorized such a strategy makes it easy to believe he’s a cheapie with a change of heart. I get that opinion and why some feel that way

 

But he’s not dumb, he knows he can’t put bad to mediocre teams out there year after year and not expect his finances to drop.

 

This team is a winning team, you are what your record is. They have some good young talent, they have some payroll flexibility and more young talent trickling its way upward towards Boston.

 

I know the past three years is horrible precedence for this opinion. But I’d be shocked if he doesn’t switch gears this offseason.

 

This is why I’ve been predicting for a while that I expect the Sox to be BIG time players in the starting pitching market this year.

 

That makes the rotation better and the bullpen better when you can have 2-3 of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford in there. With Rafaela coming up, Story healthy (hold our breath into 2024) the defense looks like it should be better behind that pitching as well.

 

I truly feel this team with its upward projection next year could be a true contender with some good quality pitching added.

 

Opinions are like *******s, we all got one and this is mine. I’ve been wrong before but I have to believe Bloom and Henry can see this as well. The fan base is restless. And even those who haven’t turned on them and want a change will eventually do so. Everyone has a breaking point.

 

To me, it just makes too much sense to not go big.

 

Now maybe that’s not Nola, it doesn’t have to be

 

Well said. I believe JH & Co will spend very big, again and soon. I don't see the value in waiting until 2025 or 2026. We only have Dugo, Pivetta, Jansen and Martin for one more year. Why not start, this winter. You can replenish for 2025 with the help of Sale's expiring contract.

 

Devers is in peak prime. Story and Yoshida will be past prime, soon. Those are our biggest investments, right now. Why wait any longer?

 

Our core of maturing young players with 1-3 years under their belt is at its highest numbers in many years: Casas, Duran, Wong, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock & Wink.

 

Our core of veteran role players with some history of success is enough to set up a situation whereby only 3-4 major slots need to be filled, this winter, which is the fewest since 2019: Dugo, Urias, Reyes, McGuire, Refsnyder, Schreiber and long shot Sale.

 

On top of all this, we have a few exciting young players looking to bust onto the scene and win a FT or major role position on the team: Rafaela, Abreu and maybe even EValdez, Rosier or longer shots like DHam, S Scott, Meidroth, Gambrell, Mata, Murphy, Robertson, Guerrero or Walter.

 

Returning from injury and possible depth: Joely, Kelly, or Mills.

 

To me, our 2024 looks very well set up for us to think about adding quality over quantity. Just 2 key additions to the rotation could be enough. Adding a big RH'd bat and a pitcher for rotation/pen depth would be welc ome, too. I see only 4 key players needed, this winter.

 

That has not been the case since before Bloom took over.

[dgalehouse]

If anyone out there is still holding some hope for a Sox wild card, the team to watch is the Rangers. They are dropping like the proverbial rock.

[Hugh2]

Well said. I believe JH & Co will spend very big, again and soon. I don't see the value in waiting until 2025 or 2026. We only have Dugo, Pivetta, Jansen and Martin for one more year. Why not start, this winter. You can replenish for 2025 with the help of Sale's expiring contract.

 

Devers is in peak prime. Story and Yoshida will be past prime, soon. Those are our biggest investments, right now. Why wait any longer?

 

Our core of maturing young players with 1-3 years under their belt is at its highest numbers in many years: Casas, Duran, Wong, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock & Wink.

 

Our core of veteran role players with some history of success is enough to set up a situation whereby only 3-4 major slots need to be filled, this winter, which is the fewest since 2019: Dugo, Urias, Reyes, McGuire, Refsnyder, Schreiber and long shot Sale.

 

On top of all this, we have a few exciting young players looking to bust onto the scene and win a FT or major role position on the team: Rafaela, Abreu and maybe even EValdez, Rosier or longer shots like DHam, S Scott, Meidroth, Gambrell, Mata, Murphy, Robertson, Guerrero or Walter.

 

Returning from injury and possible depth: Joely, Kelly, or Mills.

 

To me, our 2024 looks very well set up for us to think about adding quality over quantity. Just 2 key additions to the rotation could be enough. Adding a big RH'd bat and a pitcher for rotation/pen depth would be welc ome, too. I see only 4 key players needed, this winter.

 

That has not been the case since before Bloom took over.

 

Exactly, and what they’re losing the next few years they will replace within the farm. With line caveat being pitching, which is why I truly feel signing pitchers closed that gap.

 

For example, I can see Roman Anthony replacing Verdugo after he leaves, Teel when Reese leaves etc. and if someone like Perales or Wilkeman hit the next two years then this team becomes dangerous with legit TOTR pitchers out front (Nola, Ohtani, Yama, insert ace here).

 

I also think you need Turner gone to improve this team. And I know that sounds so backwards because he’s been so good for us, but he’s old, he could easily fall off a cliff next year and I want Yoshida at DH.

 

I think it’s reasonable to assume Casas will get better at 1B. And with Rafaela up and Yoshida out of LF, and story at SS over Kike this defense is astronomically better next year. Maybe not a top ten defense but going from worse in the majors to average would be transformative.

 

If the Sox had just AVERAGE defense this year, they probably win 3-5 more games at this point. They either have a wild card or are clipping at a teams heals. Add some pitching and improve the D and this team is dangerous

[Randy Red Sox]

Given their long term success, the Sox can be forgiven for a subpar season here and there. But too much losing for too long will result in a dramatic drop in revenue.

 

Henry has shown a willingness to spend, big at times, even set the market and go over. Not like LAD, or perhaps the new age Mets but he does over the long term

 

Because it’s been a few years since he’s made, or authorized such a strategy makes it easy to believe he’s a cheapie with a change of heart. I get that opinion and why some feel that way

 

But he’s not dumb, he knows he can’t put bad to mediocre teams out there year after year and not expect his finances to drop.

 

This team is a winning team, you are what your record is. They have some good young talent, they have some payroll flexibility and more young talent trickling its way upward towards Boston.

 

I know the past three years is horrible precedence for this opinion. But I’d be shocked if he doesn’t switch gears this offseason.

 

This is why I’ve been predicting for a while that I expect the Sox to be BIG time players in the starting pitching market this year.

 

That makes the rotation better and the bullpen better when you can have 2-3 of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford in there. With Rafaela coming up, Story healthy (hold our breath into 2024) the defense looks like it should be better behind that pitching as well.

 

I truly feel this team with its upward projection next year could be a true contender with some good quality pitching added.

 

Opinions are like *******s, we all got one and this is mine. I’ve been wrong before but I have to believe Bloom and Henry can see this as well. The fan base is restless. And even those who haven’t turned on them and want a change will eventually do so. Everyone has a breaking point.

 

To me, it just makes too much sense to not go big.

 

Now maybe that’s not Nola, it doesn’t have to be

 

this is very good and well thought out post that I agree with most of. However there is no way i sign Nola. It will take at least a 5 year deal at 25-30 million per. NO WAY.

[Old Red]

If anyone out there is still holding some hope for a Sox wild card, the team to watch is the Rangers. They are dropping like the proverbial rock.

 

Texas has dropped quite a bit, and is only 3-7 in the last 10. Unfortunately the Red Sox are only 4-6, and that’s not going to catch anyone with only 20+ games to go.

[Hugh2]

this is very good and well thought out post that I agree with most of. However there is no way i sign Nola. It will take at least a 5 year deal at 25-30 million per. NO WAY.

 

Hey we all got opinions, but fortunately there’s more talent than just Nola on the Market. I’m not really sold on any particular guy. I do have a gut feeling that Yama is going to be worth every penny he gets

[a700hitter]

The whole organization is going in the wrong direction right now. There is no sugar coating it talking about the farm system. Unless that farm system can produce 2 major league starting pitchers next season who can make 25 -30 starts, they will be forced to look outside the organization or they will be competing for last place again next season. Other than Bello, there was no starting rotation in 2023 that could take the ball every 5 days. Even in the age of the bullpen, that will just not work, and we would be well under .500 if we didn’t have both Martin and Jansen.

[notin]

Wow, what a free agency denier LOL.

 

Yes, we know it often turns out badly, but "rarely works out" is just wrong, and you could look it up.

 

 

Yes because I haven’t looked into it. Are there successes? Absolutely. But the bad contracts outweigh the good ones. Of course some folks think getting 4 good years on a 7 year deal is “good.”

[notin]

Given their long term success, the Sox can be forgiven for a subpar season here and there. But too much losing for too long will result in a dramatic drop in revenue.

 

Henry has shown a willingness to spend, big at times, even set the market and go over. Not like LAD, or perhaps the new age Mets but he does over the long term

 

Because it’s been a few years since he’s made, or authorized such a strategy makes it easy to believe he’s a cheapie with a change of heart. I get that opinion and why some feel that way

 

But he’s not dumb, he knows he can’t put bad to mediocre teams out there year after year and not expect his finances to drop.

 

This team is a winning team, you are what your record is. They have some good young talent, they have some payroll flexibility and more young talent trickling its way upward towards Boston.

 

I know the past three years is horrible precedence for this opinion. But I’d be shocked if he doesn’t switch gears this offseason.

 

This is why I’ve been predicting for a while that I expect the Sox to be BIG time players in the starting pitching market this year.

 

That makes the rotation better and the bullpen better when you can have 2-3 of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford in there. With Rafaela coming up, Story healthy (hold our breath into 2024) the defense looks like it should be better behind that pitching as well.

 

I truly feel this team with its upward projection next year could be a true contender with some good quality pitching added.

 

Opinions are like *******s, we all got one and this is mine. I’ve been wrong before but I have to believe Bloom and Henry can see this as well. The fan base is restless. And even those who haven’t turned on them and want a change will eventually do so. Everyone has a breaking point.

 

To me, it just makes too much sense to not go big.

 

Now maybe that’s not Nola, it doesn’t have to be

 

I agree with 5Gold. If Dombrowski and his Open Wallet and Future Budget Blind Spot) don’t sign Nola there is a good reason. Nola already makes about $17mill and is very unlikely to take a pay cut.

 

I’m open minded on Yamamoto, but I know absolutely nothing about him so I will let others fight that battle. I do think it sounds like he could prove himself out of Boston.

 

Of all the free agents I know about, I’m on board the Sonny Gray bandwagon. At least until I see what the fare is…

[Randy Red Sox]

I agree with 5Gold. If Dombrowski and his Open Wallet and Future Budget Blind Spot) don’t sign Nola there is a good reason. Nola already makes about $17mill and is very unlikely to take a pay cut.

 

I’m open minded on Yamamoto, but I know absolutely nothing about him so I will let others fight that battle. I do think it sounds like he could prove himself out of Boston.

 

Of all the free agents I know about, I’m on board the Sonny Gray bandwagon. At least until I see what the fare is…

 

we should have gotten Sonny Gray 3 years ago. He is about to turn 34. I looked at the other FA SP and besides Nola the only other decent one I see is Snell but again he will cost more than I would be willing to spend at this point of his career. I'd be ok with Gray on a 2-3 yr deal at about 10-12 million per but he will probably get more.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Randy Red Sox

[moonslav59]

Exactly, and what they’re losing the next few years they will replace within the farm. With line caveat being pitching, which is why I truly feel signing pitchers closed that gap.

 

For example, I can see Roman Anthony replacing Verdugo after he leaves, Teel when Reese leaves etc. and if someone like Perales or Wilkeman hit the next two years then this team becomes dangerous with legit TOTR pitchers out front (Nola, Ohtani, Yama, insert ace here).

 

I also think you need Turner gone to improve this team. And I know that sounds so backwards because he’s been so good for us, but he’s old, he could easily fall off a cliff next year and I want Yoshida at DH.

 

I think it’s reasonable to assume Casas will get better at 1B. And with Rafaela up and Yoshida out of LF, and story at SS over Kike this defense is astronomically better next year. Maybe not a top ten defense but going from worse in the majors to average would be transformative.

 

If the Sox had just AVERAGE defense this year, they probably win 3-5 more games at this point. They either have a wild card or are clipping at a teams heals. Add some pitching and improve the D and this team is dangerous

 

I'd say with average D, we'd have 6-9 more wins. With top 5 D, maybe 7-11 more wins.

[moonslav59]

we should have gore Sonny Grey 3 years ago.

 

Even a much lesser move like trading for Civale, in August would have made us better, now and next year. (He may have 2 more years of control.)

[moonslav59]

Signing Eflin and Wacha and not Kluber and Brasier or Mondesi on the roster, and we are in a playoff slot, today.

[Randy Red Sox]

I'd say with average D, we'd have 6-9 more wins. With top 5 D, maybe 7-11 more wins.

 

We will never have top D as long as Devers stays at 3B

[Hugh2]

We will never have top D as long as Devers stays at 3B

 

Devers played as good as an average defensive 3B last year.

 

Also, I’m fairly sure top notch defenses can still have a weakness. No one has 9 good glovers out there.

[Duran Is The Man]

Signing Eflin and Wacha and not Kluber and Brasier or Mondesi on the roster, and we are in a playoff slot, today.

 

this post and the one before clearly point out Bloom's poor decision making/incompetence. thanks.

[moonslav59]

this post and the one before clearly point out Bloom's poor decision making/incompetence. thanks.

 

Picking out a GM's worst decision is not how I grade a GM. If it was, all would get an F.

[moonslav59]

My updated list of SP'er I hope we pursue. I'd like to see us grap 2 from the top list, but hoping for 1 from the top and 1 from the second tier is likely asking for way too much:

 

My list (not in any order)

 

Ohtani (not someone we will sign

Yamamoto age 25!

Snell 30

Urias Just turned 27

Gray 33

Nola Just turned 30

 

Second Tier:

Kershaw 35

Montgomery 30

Giolito 29

Flaherty 27

Wacha 32

ERod 30

[mvp 78]

We will never have top D as long as Devers stays at 3B

 

His glove is fine. His arm needs a psychologist.

[moonslav59]

His glove is fine. His arm needs a psychologist.

 

Indeed. Nearly half his errors have been throwing, over his career.

 

His range is good at 3B.

 

This is why I think he'd be a big plus defender at 1B after maybe a month of work, there.

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My updated list of SP'er I hope we pursue. I'd like to see us grap 2 from the top list, but hoping for 1 from the top and 1 from the second tier is likely asking for way too much:

 

My list (not in any order)

 

Ohtani (not someone we will sign

Yamamoto age 25!

Snell 30

Urias Just turned 27

Gray 33

Nola Just turned 30

 

Second Tier:

Kershaw 35

Montgomery 30

Giolito 29

Flaherty 27

Wacha 32

ERod 30

 

If Bloom is smart, he'll strike fast and lock up one of the second tier first -- I'm still in on Montgomery -- then beg Henry to win the bidding on Yama.

 

But one of the five bigger spenders will prob overpay, and that's when Bloom needs to swoop in on Snell.

 

I'd prefer Urias, but just like with Dombro and Nola, if Friedman deems Urias worthy, he won't let him get away. If LA doesn't want Urias, I'd be very careful...

[moonslav59]

The Sox are currently 25th in defense, as measured by DRS (-19.)

 

By Position (Rank in DRS)

 

3rd RF (+11)

 

13th C (+3)

13th 1B (+1)

14th SS (0)

 

26th LF (-7)

26th 3B (-10)

27th CF (-10)

29th 2B (-9)

 

 

[moonslav59]

If Bloom is smart, he'll strike fast and lock up one of the second tier first -- I'm still in on Montgomery -- then beg Henry to win the bidding on Yama.

 

But one of the five bigger spenders will prob overpay, and that's when Bloom needs to swoop in on Snell.

 

I'd prefer Urias, but just like with Dombro and Nola, if Friedman deems Urias worthy, he won't let him get away. If LA doesn't want Urias, I'd be very careful...

 

I think that would be a winning winter:

 

Yamo or Urias

+

Montgomery

 

Sonny Gray might be a good choice, as he might only get a 3-4 year deal.