A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Larry Cook]

Does that mean three pitchers at $10M/1 and Duvall at $28M/3?/B]

 

It means a replacement for Paxton on a 1 year deal.

 

Plus Hang’em Chaim will stash a couple AAAA pitchers in Worcester for when sale breaks down.

 

Bello

Sale

Tbd - fa

Crawford

Houck

[moonslav59]

They have to figure out their in house guys first on who’s going where. It wouldn’t surprise me to see both Houck, and Whit penciled into the rotation next year with Bello, and Sale, and then Pivetta, and Kut Man.

 

As much as I dislike the idea, they probably view 3 slots going to Sale, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta.

 

We might get lucky and see them add 2 solid SP'er and make those 4 fight for 2 slots, with the other going to the pen or on the IL.

 

(Whitlock stays in the pen, forever.)

[Duran Is The Man]

Here we go again with the "fix the defense" crap.

 

I'm perfectly willing to concede to moonslav the point that the defense has cost some runs and even games this season, but I would ask when has that not been the case, not only for the Sox but for other MLB teams?

 

Hitting and pitching win games far, far more often than defense, and that's what Bloom should be going after.

 

I am also fairly sure that Cora, like virtually every other MLB manager, shapes his lineup card based on who is mostly likely to be able to hit the opposing team's pitcher/pitching.

 

The best gauge of whether the Sox will win a game this season is whether they score 5 or more runs. And that is not unlike Sox teams in the past because the Sox have always looked first for hitters with defense secondary. Thus 4 WS wins in the John Henry era.

 

And the best defense is not a bunch of gold glovers (regardless of whether they can hit), but a terrific pitching staff.

 

teams with great hitting and pitching can overcome s***** defense. like the 2004 and 2018 Sox teams you mentioned earlier. the pitching staff on this team is so bad, they can't afford the extra outs given up by the defense. i don't know why it's so hard for you to understand this.

[notin]

Here we go again with the "fix the defense" crap.

 

I'm perfectly willing to concede to moonslav the point that the defense has cost some runs and even games this season, but I would ask when has that not been the case, not only for the Sox but for other MLB teams?

 

Hitting and pitching win games far, far more often than defense, and that's what Bloom should be going after.

 

I am also fairly sure that Cora, like virtually every other MLB manager, shapes his lineup card based on who is mostly likely to be able to hit the opposing team's pitcher/pitching.

 

The best gauge of whether the Sox will win a game this season is whether they score 5 or more runs. And that is not unlike Sox teams in the past because the Sox have always looked first for hitters with defense secondary. Thus 4 WS wins in the John Henry era.

 

And the best defense is not a bunch of gold glovers (regardless of whether they can hit), but a terrific pitching staff.

 

So the argument is the Sox always ignore defense and look for hitters?

 

While on another thread, there is intense scrutiny going on as to why the Sox can’t develop pitchers internally.

 

Hey, maybe the problem isn’t that the Sox can’t develop pitchers; maybe the problem is expecting any young pitchers to be productive while standing in front of a lackluster (to be kind) defense…

[notin]

Here we go again with the "fix the defense" crap.

 

I'm perfectly willing to concede to moonslav the point that the defense has cost some runs and even games this season, but I would ask when has that not been the case, not only for the Sox but for other MLB teams?

 

Hitting and pitching win games far, far more often than defense, and that's what Bloom should be going after.

 

I am also fairly sure that Cora, like virtually every other MLB manager, shapes his lineup card based on who is mostly likely to be able to hit the opposing team's pitcher/pitching.

 

The best gauge of whether the Sox will win a game this season is whether they score 5 or more runs. And that is not unlike Sox teams in the past because the Sox have always looked first for hitters with defense secondary. Thus 4 WS wins in the John Henry era.

 

And the best defense is not a bunch of gold glovers (regardless of whether they can hit), but a terrific pitching staff.

 

Also what was that old fashioned Earl Weaver recipe for success. Three parts

 

1. Pitching

2. Something. I forget what

3. Three run homers.

 

 

Can you help me recall what Mr. Weaver had in the second spot…

[Larry Cook]

Also what was that old fashioned Earl Weaver recipe for success. Three parts

 

1. Pitching

2. Something. I forget what

3. Three run homers.

 

 

Can you help me recall what Mr. Weaver had in the second spot…

 

Defense???

[Dipre]

It means a replacement for Paxton on a 1 year deal.

 

Plus Hang’em Chaim will stash a couple AAAA pitchers in Worcester for when sale breaks down.

 

Bello

Sale

Tbd - fa

Crawford

Houck

 

That would get us another 4th place finish. Yamamoto plz.

[Maxbialystock]

teams with great hitting and pitching can overcome s***** defense. like the 2004 and 2018 Sox teams you mentioned earlier. the pitching staff on this team is so bad, they can't afford the extra outs given up by the defense. i don't know why it's so hard for you to understand this.

 

In the history of the universe no team's defense has been able to save a lousy pitching staff. Also, you seem to be unaware that all other MLB teams also give up runs because of errors or other misplays by the defense.

 

You and others also seem to be unaware of the the fact that the primary skill every lineup player brings to the game is his ability to hit. I would make an exception for the two catchers except that both are about average hitters compared to other MLB catchers.

 

Casas has a terrible DWAR but today we saw again why he is so doggone valuable to this team. In fact, none of Duvall, Tuner, Yoshida, Devers, Refsnyder, McGuire, Duran, or Casas has a positive DWAR.

[Nick]

Great interview by Casas after the game.

 

He is very well spoken. Very thoughtful and analytical with his responses. Pretty amazing young man.

 

He is only 23.

[Nick]

Texas

 

2 vs Astros

3 vs Athletics

4 vs Blue Jays

3 vs Guardians

3 vs Red Sox

3 vs Angels

4 vs Mariners

 

Blue Jays

 

2 vs A's

3 vs Royals

4 vs Rangers

3 vs Red Sox

6 vs Yankees

6 vs Rays

 

Astros

 

2 vs Rangers

3 vs Padres

3 vs Athletics

6 vs Royals

3 vs Orioles

3 vs Mariners

3 vs D-backs

Edited September 4, 2023 by Nick

[dgalehouse]

Don't do too much tinkering. Leave Devers at third and Casas at first. It's good to have a tall first baseman. He will be okay.

[moonslav59]

In the history of the universe no team's defense has been able to save a lousy pitching staff. Also, you seem to be unaware that all other MLB teams also give up runs because of errors or other misplays by the defense.

 

You and others also seem to be unaware of the the fact that the primary skill every lineup player brings to the game is his ability to hit. I would make an exception for the two catchers except that both are about average hitters compared to other MLB catchers.

 

Casas has a terrible DWAR but today we saw again why he is so doggone valuable to this team. In fact, none of Duvall, Tuner, Yoshida, Devers, Refsnyder, McGuire, Duran, or Casas has a positive DWAR.

 

Has a good defense ever saved a mediocre staff in the history of MLB? (See the Royals last championship.)

 

Has a good D ever put a good staff over the top to win a ring?

 

How much did Beni's catch have to do with that win?

 

Max, nobody is saying defense is more important than O or pitching- nobody.

 

There only seems to be one guy saying one aspect of the game does not matter, at all.

[moonslav59]

I'm going to start calling this "Red's Standings Update." Here we go...

 

TOR pulled one out in 10, today, but TEX lost.

 

83-55 TBR

77-60 SEA (T-ALW leader)

78-61 HOU (t-ALW leader)

76-61 TEX (WC3)

 

76-62 TOR -0.5

72-66 BOS -4.5 from TEX & HOU (-4.0 from TOR)

68-69 NYY -8.0

 

Take care of business vs the Rays, and HOU or TEX will lose vs each other.

 

Then, we need to sweep TOR and probably TEX.

 

It's a longshot, I know, but this team has been full of up and down surprises, all year long. No need for that to stop, suddenly, now.

 

Someone is watching the Yankee lead more than the WC race.

 

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

Don't do too much tinkering. Leave Devers at third and Casas at first. It's good to have a tall first baseman. He will be okay.

 

I would bet they give him another shot, but I would greatly prefer a 1b who can field a groundball once in a while…

[notin]

Don't do too much tinkering. Leave Devers at third and Casas at first. It's good to have a tall first baseman. He will be okay.

 

I don’t think moving Casas to primary DH/occasional first base constitutes tinkering with him too much…

[a700hitter]

Here we go again with the "fix the defense" crap.

 

I'm perfectly willing to concede to moonslav the point that the defense has cost some runs and even games this season, but I would ask when has that not been the case, not only for the Sox but for other MLB teams?

 

Hitting and pitching win games far, far more often than defense, and that's what Bloom should be going after.

 

I am also fairly sure that Cora, like virtually every other MLB manager, shapes his lineup card based on who is mostly likely to be able to hit the opposing team's pitcher/pitching.

 

The best gauge of whether the Sox will win a game this season is whether they score 5 or more runs. And that is not unlike Sox teams in the past because the Sox have always looked first for hitters with defense secondary. Thus 4 WS wins in the John Henry era.

 

And the best defense is not a bunch of gold glovers (regardless of whether they can hit), but a terrific pitching staff.

This reminds me of the argument that closers don’t matter and that the 9th inning is the same as any other inning. I am not sure if you have also made that argument. Defense matters. Pitching and Defense wins and it is easier than building a team with both good pitching and good offense. An adequate defense this season would have added easily 4 or 5 games. Couple that with brain dead base running and you have taken away any chance of contending. No one hear is asking for the best defense, just an average defense.

[moonslav59]

This reminds me of the argument that closers don’t matter and that the 9th inning is the same as any other inning. I am not sure if you have also made that argument. Defense matters. Pitching and Defense wins and it is easier than building a team with both good pitching and good offense. An adequate defense this season would have added easily 4 or 5 games. Couple that with brain dead base running and you have taken away any chance of contending. No one hear is asking for the best defense, just an average defense.

 

I totally agree.

 

I've never seen a team where you could say having an average D would give you 4-5 more wins, minimum, so this is unchartered territory for us Sox fans.

 

Usually, it's almost always about pitching, then offense, but part of the reason our pitching looks so bad, is that they've needed to get 4 or 5 outs in way too many innings. Forget errors, It's all the non error blunders that cost us many runs and 5+ games.

 

BTW, we are 4.5 behind TEX.

 

Sure, better pitching or hitting could have made up those 5 games, but with the D, we are just making the point that average D wins us 5 more, Therein lies the rub for most fans.

[Maxbialystock]

This reminds me of the argument that closers don’t matter and that the 9th inning is the same as any other inning. I am not sure if you have also made that argument. Defense matters. Pitching and Defense wins and it is easier than building a team with both good pitching and good offense. An adequate defense this season would have added easily 4 or 5 games. Couple that with brain dead base running and you have taken away any chance of contending. No one hear is asking for the best defense, just an average defense.

 

Let's try this. Can we agree the 2018 Sox were probably the best Sox team ever?

 

If we can, here are the worst DWAR's, from the bottom up, from the 2018 Sox--followed by the worst DWAR's from the 2023 Sox.

 

2018 Sox

Nunez, 119 games, DWAR -1.5

JDM 57 games, -1.4

Bogey 136 games, -1.0

Devers 116 games, -0.9

Benintendi, 153 games, -0.6

Moreland, 116 games, -0.5

Swihart, 65 games, -0.4

Pearce, 35 games, -0.4

Holt, 108 games, -0.1

 

2023 Sox

Yoshida, 73 games, -1.4

Casas, 115 games -0.9

Turner, 53 games -0.7

Duvall, 73 games, -0.5

Valdez, 36 games, -0.5

Duran, 103 games, -0.4

Devers, 129 games, -0.3

Refsnyder, 67 games, -0.3

McGuire, 51 games, -0.2

Urias, 25 games, -0.1

 

If you're wondering, here are the top five from both teams--

2018

Mookie 135 games, +1.8

Leon, 87 games, +0.9

JBJ, 150 games, +0.4

Kinsler, 37 games, +0.2

Vazquez, 77 games, +0.2

 

2023

Wong, 108 games, +1.7

Verdugo, 122 games, +1.0

Story, 17 games, +0.5

Reyes, 56 games, +0.1

Kike, 99 games, +0.1

[Dipre]

Historically, the Sox have not been very good defensive teams. But why not optimoze the defensive alignment wherever possible? A lineup with good offense and decent defense can win you a lot of games even with mediocre pitching.

[moonslav59]

Let's try this. Can we agree the 2018 Sox were probably the best Sox team ever?

 

If we can, here are the worst DWAR's, from the bottom up, from the 2018 Sox--followed by the worst DWAR's from the 2023 Sox.

 

2018 Sox

Nunez, 119 games, DWAR -1.5

JDM 57 games, -1.4

Bogey 136 games, -1.0

Devers 116 games, -0.9

Benintendi, 153 games, -0.6

Moreland, 116 games, -0.5

Swihart, 65 games, -0.4

Pearce, 35 games, -0.4

Holt, 108 games, -0.1

 

2023 Sox

Yoshida, 73 games, -1.4

Casas, 115 games -0.9

Turner, 53 games -0.7

Duvall, 73 games, -0.5

Valdez, 36 games, -0.5

Duran, 103 games, -0.4

Devers, 129 games, -0.3

Refsnyder, 67 games, -0.3

McGuire, 51 games, -0.2

Urias, 25 games, -0.1

 

If you're wondering, here are the top five from both teams--

2018

Mookie 135 games, +1.8

Leon, 87 games, +0.9

JBJ, 150 games, +0.4

Kinsler, 37 games, +0.2

Vazquez, 77 games, +0.2

 

2023

Wong, 108 games, +1.7

Verdugo, 122 games, +1.0

Story, 17 games, +0.5

Reyes, 56 games, +0.1

Kike, 99 games, +0.1

 

Max, give it up.

 

Everyone agrees hitting and pitching matter way more than fielding. There are 162 games, and most of us agree our D cost us 5-10 games. The rest are on the O and Pitching.

 

Another thing, BR's dWAR is not the measurement most stat guys use.

 

DRS and OAA are where it's at. OAA has our 1B, 2B, SS and 3B positions dead last or very near it.

 

Ou D sucks and it costs us enough games to make a difference.'

 

'The years and players you keep listing from the past did not.

 

[moonslav59]

Historically, the Sox have not been very good defensive teams. But why not optimoze the defensive alignment wherever possible? A lineup with good offense and decent defense can win you a lot of games even with mediocre pitching.

 

Nobody is saying let's trade Dugo for JBJ.

[a700hitter]

Let's try this. Can we agree the 2018 Sox were probably the best Sox team ever?

 

If we can, here are the worst DWAR's, from the bottom up, from the 2018 Sox--followed by the worst DWAR's from the 2023 Sox.

 

2018 Sox

Nunez, 119 games, DWAR -1.5

JDM 57 games, -1.4

Bogey 136 games, -1.0

Devers 116 games, -0.9

Benintendi, 153 games, -0.6

Moreland, 116 games, -0.5

Swihart, 65 games, -0.4

Pearce, 35 games, -0.4

Holt, 108 games, -0.1

 

2023 Sox

Yoshida, 73 games, -1.4

Casas, 115 games -0.9

Turner, 53 games -0.7

Duvall, 73 games, -0.5

Valdez, 36 games, -0.5

Duran, 103 games, -0.4

Devers, 129 games, -0.3

Refsnyder, 67 games, -0.3

McGuire, 51 games, -0.2

Urias, 25 games, -0.1

 

If you're wondering, here are the top five from both teams--

2018

Mookie 135 games, +1.8

Leon, 87 games, +0.9

JBJ, 150 games, +0.4

Kinsler, 37 games, +0.2

Vazquez, 77 games, +0.2

 

2023

Wong, 108 games, +1.7

Verdugo, 122 games, +1.0

Story, 17 games, +0.5

Reyes, 56 games, +0.1

Kike, 99 games, +0.1

Yeah, that team had fantastic hitting and pitching. If you have neither, good fielding can help your team be respectable. If you have good hitting or pitching, good fielding can help you to be a winner.

[cp176]

Hey - call me stupid I guess. I have always considered pitching to be something that should limit a team from scoring. In my little mind, pitching is defense.

[Hugh2]

Hey - call me stupid I guess. I have always considered pitching to be something that should limit a team from scoring. In my little mind, pitching is defense.

 

Good defense makes good pitching even better.

[moonslav59]

Good defense makes good pitching even better.

 

Great pitching also makes the defense less impactful, especially if the staff is high on K's.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Great pitching also makes the defense less impactful, especially if the staff is high on K's.

 

Said this last week; Rafaela in CF (Duran is not the answer) and fulltime Story at SS helps in two key spots -- but we have to live with Raffy and Casas at the corners, and the best way to offset them is by recruiting strikeout pitchers.

[Old Red]

I'm going to start calling this "Red's Standings Update." Here we go...

 

TOR pulled one out in 10, today, but TEX lost.

 

83-55 TBR

77-60 SEA (T-ALW leader)

78-61 HOU (t-ALW leader)

76-61 TEX (WC3)

 

76-62 TOR -0.5

72-66 BOS -4.5 from TEX & HOU (-4.0 from TOR)

68-69 NYY -8.0

 

Take care of business vs the Rays, and HOU or TEX will lose vs each other.

 

Then, we need to sweep TOR and probably TEX.

 

It's a longshot, I know, but this team has been full of up and down surprises, all year long. No need for that to stop, suddenly, now.

 

Someone is watching the Yankee lead more than the WC race.

 

 

 

Thanks, I going to Boothbay Harbor for three days, and chase those whales again, so keep up the good work, and don’t let the boys slide back to the Yankees while I’m gone.

[moonslav59]

Thanks, I going to Boothbay Harbor for three days, and chase those whales again, so keep up the good work, and don’t let the boys slide back to the Yankees while I’m gone.

 

Have fun.

 

I love Boothbay Harbor. Magical place.

[moonslav59]

This week in the WC Race:

 

BOS: 2@TBR, 3vBAL

TOR: 2@OAK, 3vKCR

TEX: 2vHOU, 3vOAK

HOU: 2@TEX, 3vSDP

SEA: 2@CIN, 4@TBR

[notin]

Hey - call me stupid I guess. I have always considered pitching to be something that should limit a team from scoring. In my little mind, pitching is defense.

 

Sure, but pitching alone can’t. Good defense makes pitching better. And it’s often much cheaper to upgrade defense over pitching…