A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Old Red]

1. None of us have anticipated any moves beyond maybe signing Kluber.

 

2. Should they be done, is the question. Not will they be done. Only discussing moves the Sox will make is just playing a guessing game. It’s not your job to be there forum police and limit topics to do not approve of.

 

3. Last off-season I said the Sox should sign Joey Gallo. That would/should have meant an OF alignment of Verdugo-Hernandez-Gallo, which is most definitely in the running as the best defensive outfield in MLB. The Sox did not take my suggestion. So fill out here - do they put do they not have defensive issues?

 

I’m not playing forum police to limit topics. Blow into the wind all you want. Improving the D would improve the team, but I just don’t see Bloom as thinking that way, and if he did he hasn’t done much about it. Like last year at 1B, and when the Red Sox needed a CF/RF Bloom went out, and got a LF in Pham. A Dugy, Kike, and Gallo OF would have been a good defensive OF, but not much with the bats. So day dream all you want.

[moonslav59]

I agre on trading for starting pitchers. Free agent starters are quite often simply just bad investments. Relievers are the place to spend, on the other hand. But a bullpen upgrade or two!!

 

I get how pen building costs less, is usually a safer bet, and shorter commitments, but to me, we have so many pitchers we have used as SP'ers who belong in the pen. We can make our pen one of the best in MLB without adding a single player to our roster, except SP'ers.

 

This pen blows me away:

 

Closer: Jansen

Set-Up: Martin

RP3: Houck

RP4: Whitlock

RP5: Crawford

RP6: Pivetta

RP7: Scheiber

RP8: Winckowski/ Bernardino/Joely/Murphy/Walter/Kelly/Robertson

 

Now, I fully realize at least 2 from Houck, Crawford and Pivetta will be in the opening day rotation, and all 3 will likely start a lot of games in 2024, but if we add 2-3 solid SP'ers, we can minimize those starts and maximize their time in the pen. If Sale can start 15+ games in 2024, it would add to t heir pen time, too, but I'm not counting on even 1 start fro Sale in '24.

 

This is likely a pipe dream, and it's only adding 2 SP'ers:

 

SP1: Gray or Urias

SP2: Yamamoto

SP3: Bello

SP4: Houck

SP5: Sale/Pivetta/Houck

 

[moonslav59]

I’m not playing forum police to limit topics. Blow into the wind all you want. Improving the D would improve the team, but I just don’t see Bloom as thinking that way, and if he did he hasn’t done much about it. Like last year at 1B, and when the Red Sox needed a CF/RF Bloom went out, and got a LF in Pham. A Dugy, Kike, and Gallo OF would have been a good defensive OF, but not much with the bats. So day dream all you want.

 

He did trade for JBJ, which looked like it was all about D.

 

He also added Kike, who he felt was the best defensive 2Bman in MLB, and who turned into a pretty decent defensive CF'er.

 

He added Chang and Mondesi- thought to be good glovemen.

 

He signed GG winner Duvall for our OF, this year.

 

As it turned out, moving Dugo to RF was not as bad as many of us thought, so the Pham deal should have improved our D.

 

The McGuire and Abreu deals looked more about D than O.

 

Bloom's biggest signing was Story, whi has always been a great defender.

 

The Yoshida deal was clearly not about D.

 

 

 

[notin]

He did trade for JBJ, which looked like it was all about D.

 

He also added Kike, who he felt was the best defensive 2Bman in MLB, and who turned into a pretty decent defensive CF'er.

 

He added Chang and Mondesi- thought to be good glovemen.

 

He signed GG winner Duvall for our OF, this year.

 

As it turned out, moving Dugo to RF was not as bad as many of us thought, so the Pham deal should have improved our D.

 

The McGuire and Abreu deals looked more about D than O.

 

Bloom's biggest signing was Story, whi has always been a great defender.

 

The Yoshida deal was clearly not about D.

 

 

 

 

 

Story was clearly about the defense. Some of his other moves that looked defensive (McGuire?) simply have not turned out that way.

 

And really, we don’t know what he saw in Wong…

[Duran Is The Man]

Moving Yoshida to DH or moving Casas to DH and Devers to 1b are both good methods of tightening up the defense.

 

And while the rotation is the biggest problem, simply throwing money at it might not change this. Or at the least stands to be a bigger deal down the road. I’d be ok with a 3-4 year deal for a pitcher, but there will be a few on this market looking for 7-8 year deals that hopefully the Sox have learned their lesson on…

 

 

this makes too much sense. which means it will never happen.

[moonslav59]

Story was clearly about the defense. Some of his other moves that looked defensive (McGuire?) simply have not turned out that way.

 

And really, we don’t know what he saw in Wong…

 

JBJ was all about D.

 

Kike was about D and flexibility of his D (just not SS)

 

Chang was just D.

 

Duvall was about both.

[moonslav59]

this makes too much sense. which means it will never happen.

 

I'd say the odds of Yoshida playing DH more than 81 games is over 50-50.

 

The odds of Casas playing DH 81 or more games is over 500:1. (The same odds as Devers at 1b in 2024.)

 

[Old Red]

He did trade for JBJ, which looked like it was all about D.

 

He also added Kike, who he felt was the best defensive 2Bman in MLB, and who turned into a pretty decent defensive CF'er.

 

He added Chang and Mondesi- thought to be good glovemen.

 

He signed GG winner Duvall for our OF, this year.

 

As it turned out, moving Dugo to RF was not as bad as many of us thought, so the Pham deal should have improved our D.

 

The McGuire and Abreu deals looked more about D than O.

 

Bloom's biggest signing was Story, whi has always been a great defender.

 

The Yoshida deal was clearly not about D.

 

 

 

Are the Red Sox still paying JBJ? At any rate that is still a head scratcher.

Kike the best defensive 2B in all of MLB?

GG Duvall was in RF, and not CF.

[Maxbialystock]

Here we go again with the "fix the defense" crap.

 

I'm perfectly willing to concede to moonslav the point that the defense has cost some runs and even games this season, but I would ask when has that not been the case, not only for the Sox but for other MLB teams?

 

Hitting and pitching win games far, far more often than defense, and that's what Bloom should be going after.

 

I am also fairly sure that Cora, like virtually every other MLB manager, shapes his lineup card based on who is mostly likely to be able to hit the opposing team's pitcher/pitching.

 

The best gauge of whether the Sox will win a game this season is whether they score 5 or more runs. And that is not unlike Sox teams in the past because the Sox have always looked first for hitters with defense secondary. Thus 4 WS wins in the John Henry era.

 

And the best defense is not a bunch of gold glovers (regardless of whether they can hit), but a terrific pitching staff.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[Old Red]

Here we go again with the "fix the defense" crap.

 

I'm perfectly willing to concede to moonslav the point that the defense has cost some runs and even games this season, but I would ask when has that not been the case, not only for the Sox but for other MLB teams?

 

But my real point is that hitting and pitching win games far, far more often than defense.

 

I am fairly sure that Cora, like virtually every other MLB manager, shapes his lineup card based on who is mostly likely to be able to hit the opposing team's pitcher/pitching.

 

Indeed, as I have harped on repeatedly, the best gauge of whether the Sox will win a game this season is if they score 5 or more runs. And that is not unlike Sox teams in the past because the Sox have always looked first for hitters--defense has always been secondary. Thus 4 WS wins in the John Henry era.

 

And the best defense is not a bunch of gold glovers (regardless of whether they can hit), but a terrific pitching staff.

Max how about some good 3B talk like Joe Foy?

[Maxbialystock]

Max how about some good 3B talk like Joe Foy?

 

Absolutely not. Devers is perfect at 3b: very good hitter, good enough fielder.

 

And the guys who want to move him to 1b and Casas to DH are nuts because Casas is also perfect at 1b: very good hitter, good enough fielder. His weakness is grounders, but, because of his reach, he is terrific fielding throws to 1B. Also, his infrequent throws to 2b and to home are not half-bad.

[Maxbialystock]

I’m not playing forum police to limit topics. Blow into the wind all you want. Improving the D would improve the team, but I just don’t see Bloom as thinking that way, and if he did he hasn’t done much about it. Like last year at 1B, and when the Red Sox needed a CF/RF Bloom went out, and got a LF in Pham. A Dugy, Kike, and Gallo OF would have been a good defensive OF, but not much with the bats. So day dream all you want.

 

If Bloom were to pursue gloves over bats, he should be summarily fired.

[Nick]

If Bloom were to pursue gloves over bats, he should be summarily fired.

 

Playing in hitter friendly parks of AL East forces you to have some offensive production.

 

Good pitching can limit the damage of bad defense. Good defense will not help horrible pitching.

[moonslav59]

Are the Red Sox still paying JBJ? At any rate that is still a head scratcher.

Kike the best defensive 2B in all of MLB?

GG Duvall was in RF, and not CF.

 

On Kike, I said Cora thought he was the best defensive 2B in MLB not that he actually was.

 

On Duvall, good point, but signing a guy who was GG just 2 years ago can be viewed as wanting to upgrade our OF D. Our D before the signing was Yoshida in LF- yuck, Duran in CF- double yuck as we thought in March and Dugo in RF- who was highly suspect on D in RF, before this season.

 

I'm just talking about the thought process of the additions, when they were made.

 

No, I don't think we are not paying JBJ. He had a 2023 option. I assume it has been paid, already.

[Old Red]

Absolutely not. Devers is perfect at 3b: very good hitter, good enough fielder.

 

And the guys who want to move him to 1b and Casas to DH are nuts because Casas is also perfect at 1b: very good hitter, good enough fielder. His weakness is grounders, but, because of his reach, he is terrific fielding throws to 1B. Also, his infrequent throws to 2b and to home are not half-bad.

Max i wouldn’t call Devers as being perfect at 3B, and i wouldn’t call Casas as being perfect at 1B. Yes he has reach I’ll give him that, but he is far from perfect. Even George Scott wasn’t perfect at 1B, and he was pretty dam good. I’ve seen Casas more than once stretching forward for a throw that went sailing over his head, so i wouldn’t call that so terrific.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

Here we go again with the "fix the defense" crap.

 

I'm perfectly willing to concede to moonslav the point that the defense has cost some runs and even games this season, but I would ask when has that not been the case, not only for the Sox but for other MLB teams?

 

Hitting and pitching win games far, far more often than defense, and that's what Bloom should be going after.

 

I am also fairly sure that Cora, like virtually every other MLB manager, shapes his lineup card based on who is mostly likely to be able to hit the opposing team's pitcher/pitching.

 

The best gauge of whether the Sox will win a game this season is whether they score 5 or more runs. And that is not unlike Sox teams in the past because the Sox have always looked first for hitters with defense secondary. Thus 4 WS wins in the John Henry era.

 

And the best defense is not a bunch of gold glovers (regardless of whether they can hit), but a terrific pitching staff.

 

We can take steps to fix some of the D without sacrificing offense, and some moves don't cost us a cent.

 

If Story can just hit over this year's SS OPS of .634, we will greatly improve our SS D, while likely greatly improving its O, too. NO ADDED COST.

 

If we move Yoshida to DH and not replace JT's salary with a bat, we actually save money. Yoshida's ,813 OPS is an improvement over the 2023 team DH OPS of .778. Gain on O while saving money.

 

With Yoshida at DH nearly FT, we can play a Duran-Refsnyder platoon in LF that should improve the LF defense, significantly without adding a cent to the budget. Duran's .828 OPS is better than Yoshida's .813 OPS and Retsnyder's splits vs LHPs have been among the best in MLB from 2021-2023, combined. Plus on O and D at NO COST.

 

Playing Rafaela in CF adds no cost and improves the CF D astronomically, again at no cost or by saving $7M, if we do not replace Duvall. One can assume a drop in O in CF by not bringing Duvall back, but we can bring him back with a raise, or sign another RH'd OF'er who can hit and play decent D. That would be a slight increase in cost while improving D and maybe keeping the O close to even.

 

Keeping Duvall in RF can be counted as staying even in O and D at no cost. Abreu represents better defensive back-up support with unknown offensive input. Call RF even.

 

2B rates to be a significant improvement on O and D. Reyes and Urias are capable defenders, unlike what we saw, this year. They also should be able to beat ,640 2B OPS in 2023, easily. PLus-plus at just the arb raise cost for Urias.

 

That leaves 1B and catcher, where I have to think improvement on D should come with more experience, and the O could improve, too. No cost and possibly better O and D.

 

Why isn't trying to fix the D without changing the O such a bad idea?

 

Let's say we lose JT but keep Duvall, Urias and more play Story, Reyes, Rafaela and Abreu more. Is that a big loss on O? I would argue we should have a higher OPS than 2023.

 

Improve the O AND D with minimal additions. (keeping Duvall can be viewed as no added players.)

[Dipre]

If Chapman can be had for Story money, is it really out of character? Since, you know, we have Story.

 

 

In fact, Chapman profiles as a Bloom type signing. Since Matt is a metrics darling who doesn’t always post “back of the baseball card” numbers.

 

Will Bloom sign Chapman? Probably not. Of course this applies to every free agent from every GM. There are no locks. But Chapman really should be his primary position player target this off-season…

 

Chapman doesn't do it for me. And I don't think he'll be coming here, but maybe they think they can turn back the clock with his offensive approach? He may be suffering the effects of constantly being dinged up. He sure can get it at 3B though.

[Dipre]

Here we go again with the "fix the defense" crap.

 

I'm perfectly willing to concede to moonslav the point that the defense has cost some runs and even games this season, but I would ask when has that not been the case, not only for the Sox but for other MLB teams?

 

Hitting and pitching win games far, far more often than defense, and that's what Bloom should be going after.

 

I am also fairly sure that Cora, like virtually every other MLB manager, shapes his lineup card based on who is mostly likely to be able to hit the opposing team's pitcher/pitching.

 

The best gauge of whether the Sox will win a game this season is whether they score 5 or more runs. And that is not unlike Sox teams in the past because the Sox have always looked first for hitters with defense secondary. Thus 4 WS wins in the John Henry era.

 

And the best defense is not a bunch of gold glovers (regardless of whether they can hit), but a terrific pitching staff.

 

Gotta score runs, but also gotta prevent them. They can improve some aspects of the defense without sacrificing offense.

[Nick]

That leaves 1B and catcher, where I have to think improvement on D should come with more experience, and the O could improve, too. No cost and possibly better O and D.

 

I'm confused. I thought Wong was one the best defensive catchers.

[Dipre]

That leaves 1B and catcher, where I have to think improvement on D should come with more experience, and the O could improve, too. No cost and possibly better O and D.

 

I'm confused. I thought Wong was one the best defensive catchers.

 

Both he an 'Guire are relatively young, and could improve somewhat still, as catchers tend to really hit their stride much later than other position players.

[moonslav59]

That leaves 1B and catcher, where I have to think improvement on D should come with more experience, and the O could improve, too. No cost and possibly better O and D.

 

I'm confused. I thought Wong was one the best defensive catchers.

 

He can still improve, especially with getting the best out of our staff, as McGuire needs to do, even more so.

[Maxbialystock]

We can take steps to fix some of the D without sacrificing offense, and some moves don't cost us a cent.

 

If Story can just hit over this year's SS OPS of .634, we will greatly improve our SS D, while likely greatly improving its O, too. NO ADDED COST.

 

If we move Yoshida to DH and not replace JT's salary with a bat, we actually save money. Yoshida's ,813 OPS is an improvement over the 2023 team DH OPS of .778. Gain on O while saving money.

 

With Yoshida at DH nearly FT, we can play a Duran-Refsnyder platoon in LF that should improve the LF defense, significantly without adding a cent to the budget. Duran's .828 OPS is better than Yoshida's .813 OPS and Retsnyder's splits vs LHPs have been among the best in MLB from 2021-2023, combined. Plus on O and D at NO COST.

 

Playing Rafaela in CF adds no cost and improves the CF D astronomically, again at no cost or by saving $7M, if we do not replace Duvall. One can assume a drop in O in CF by not bringing Duvall back, but we can bring him back with a raise, or sign another RH'd OF'er who can hit and play decent D. That would be a slight increase in cost while improving D and maybe keeping the O close to even.

 

Keeping Duvall in RF can be counted as staying even in O and D at no cost. Abreu represents better defensive back-up support with unknown offensive input. Call RF even.

 

2B rates to be a significant improvement on O and D. Reyes and Urias are capable defenders, unlike what we saw, this year. They also should be able to beat ,640 2B OPS in 2023, easily. PLus-plus at just the arb raise cost for Urias.

 

That leaves 1B and catcher, where I have to think improvement on D should come with more experience, and the O could improve, too. No cost and possibly better O and D.

 

Why isn't trying to fix the D without changing the O such a bad idea?

 

Let's say we lose JT but keep Duvall, Urias and more play Story, Reyes, Rafaela and Abreu more. Is that a big loss on O? I would argue we should have a higher OPS than 2023.

 

Improve the O AND D with minimal additions. (keeping Duvall can be viewed as no added players.)

 

Love it. You have no peer in laying out solutions--or just data, for that matter.

 

And I actually agree on the infield with Devers, Story, Reyes/Urias, and Casas, especially if Reyes can keep hitting. But the real point of agreement is that to me Devers and Casas are good enough on defense and have the good bats. As for Story, he's got the glove, but it should would be nice to the freaking bat. But my sniveling counterpoint is that the Sox already have this fix right now--except Reyes is on the IL--so this really isn't a fix.

 

As for the outfield, I would keep Dugo, but would have absolutely no objection to moving Duvall over to RF--a good righty bat is pretty important at Fenway. But, when you do that, you put an unproven player, Rafaela, in CF.

 

As for Yoshida as full-time DH, don't forget that having Turner DH now and then was good for Turner. And next year the same could apply to other players.

 

Finally, let's not forget that Manny Ramirez was our leftfielder on two WS teams, 2004 and 2007. Handing LF over to Ref and Duran--in order, as you say, to fix the defense--seems to me to be bass ackwards. LF at Fenway has always been reserved for great bats, not great gloves.

[moonslav59]

Love it. You have no peer in laying out solutions--or just data, for that matter.

 

And I actually agree on the infield with Devers, Story, Reyes/Urias, and Casas, especially if Reyes can keep hitting. But the real point of agreement is that to me Devers and Casas are good enough on defense and have the good bats. As for Story, he's got the glove, but it should would be nice to the freaking bat. But my sniveling counterpoint is that the Sox already have this fix right now--except Reyes is on the IL--so this really isn't a fix.

 

As for the outfield, I would keep Dugo, but would have absolutely no objection to moving Duvall over to RF--a good righty bat is pretty important at Fenway. But, when you do that, you put an unproven player, Rafaela, in CF.

 

As for Yoshida as full-time DH, don't forget that having Turner DH now and then was good for Turner. And next year the same could apply to other players.

 

Finally, let's not forget that Manny Ramirez was our leftfielder on two WS teams, 2004 and 2007. Handing LF over to Ref and Duran--in order, as you say, to fix the defense--seems to me to be bass ackwards. LF at Fenway has always been reserved for great bats, not great gloves.

 

My idea of Duran and Ref sharing LF is not about great gloves in LF, either, but it is an important. I also think maybe Yoshida's bat suffered from getting tired, so playing him more at DH might make him an even better hitter.

 

I do not think LF D, especially in Fenway is as important as SS, C, 2B, CF and then RF and 3B. I'm okay with neglecting D in LF.

 

Nobody sees Devers or Casas as net negatives, but that doesn't mean looking at ways to improve our D without losing their O should not be dismissed, out of hand.

 

I'm fine with letting Devers and Casas have another year at 3B and 1B. I'm not for taking any spending from pitching to sign Chapman.

 

I think our D will improve enough without making signing a player based on defense a major priority. That is not to say I would say let's ignore D, if we sign another OF'er.

 

To me, improving our rotation needs to take up 90%+ of our resources spent, this winter- either with money spent or who we might trade for.

 

[moonslav59]

OBP

 

.372 Refsnyder

.367 Casas

.355 Turner

.350 Yoshida

.346 Duran

.342 Devers

.341 Dugo

.337 Duvall

.302 Wong

 

Under 200 PAs

.429 Abreu 21

.375 Rafaela 8

.353 Urias

.340 Reyes

.327 McGuire

 

SLG

.590 Duvall

.508 Devers

.495 Casas

.482 Duran

.482 Turner

.481 Yoshida

.462 Dugo

.408 Wong

 

.611 Abreu

.500 Rafaela

.408 Reyes

.384 McGuire

 

OPS 8+ PAs

1.040 Abreu

.927 Duvall

.875 Rafaela

.862 Casas

.850 Devers

.836 Turner

.828 Duran

.813 Yoshida

.790 Dugo

.748 Reyes

.711 McGuire

.710 Urias

.708 Wong

.690 Refsnyder

.677 EValdez

 

vs RHPs

.943 Duvall

.875 Casas

.859 Devers

.852 Dugo

.841 Duran

.823 Yoshida

.791 Turner

.762 Wong

.701 Reyes

.695 Urias

.671 McGuire

.470 Refsnyder

 

vs LHPs

1.105 McGuire

.964 Turner

.878 Duvall

.870 Reyes

.850 Refsnyder

.830 Devers

.803 Casas

.779 Yoshida

.733 Urias

.623 Dugo

.551 Wong

 

vs LHPs

[Larry Cook]

To me, improving our rotation needs to take up 90%+ of our resources spent, this winter- either with money spent or who we might trade for.

 

 

Didn’t the Red Sox brass highlight the need to improve the pitching for 2024?

[Old Red]

Logan Gillaspie claimed off waivers who last pitched for the O’s.

[moonslav59]

Didn’t the Red Sox brass highlight the need to improve the pitching for 2024?

 

That's what scares me.

 

They lie more than truth.

[Old Red]

That's what scares me.

 

They lie more than truth.

 

They spin, and grin, and all at the same time.

[moonslav59]

Didn’t the Red Sox brass highlight the need to improve the pitching for 2024?

 

Does that mean three pitchers at $10M/1 and Duvall at $28M/3?/B]

[Old Red]

Does that mean three pitchers at $10M/1 and Duvall at $28M/3?/B]

 

They have to figure out their in house guys first on who’s going where. It wouldn’t surprise me to see both Houck, and Whit penciled into the rotation next year with Bello, and Sale, and then Pivetta, and Kut Man.