A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

I'd say with average D, we'd have 6-9 more wins. With top 5 D, maybe 7-11 more wins.

 

I think you are onto something. Instead of shelling out for pitching and hitting, the Sox should aggressively pursue good defenders. I mean, with a good defense, the other teams can 't score. And, if they can't score, you don't need much offense--a couple of runs a game should do it. And good gloves come dirt cheap.

[notin]

If Bloom is smart, he'll strike fast and lock up one of the second tier first -- I'm still in on Montgomery -- then beg Henry to win the bidding on Yama.

 

But one of the five bigger spenders will prob overpay, and that's when Bloom needs to swoop in on Snell.

 

I'd prefer Urias, but just like with Dombro and Nola, if Friedman deems Urias worthy, he won't let him get away. If LA doesn't want Urias, I'd be very careful...

 

I don’t quite see the parallel between Urias and Nola.

 

The Dodgers can let Urias walk and backfill with any of their younger arms. The Phillies have very little depth after Nola and Wheeler.

 

The thing about Urias is if you like him, you have to really like him. He’s likely to command a 7-8 year deal…

[Maxbialystock]

I think you are onto something. Instead of shelling out for pitching and hitting, the Sox should aggressively pursue good defenders. I mean, with a good defense, the other teams can 't score. And, if they can't score, you don't need much offense--a couple of runs a game should do it. And good gloves come dirt cheap.

 

For the record, here are the miscreants who--with their nasty negative DWAR's--have kept the Sox from winning games this year:

 

Yoshida -1.3

Casas -0.8

Turner -0.7

Duran -0.4

Refsnyder -0.3

McGuire -0.2

Urias -0.2

Devers (-0.1, but it was much worse earlier this season)

 

Little known fact: the Sox lost the 1946 WS because they were stuck with having to play Ted Williams in LF.

 

And don't forget these defensive stinkers on the 2004 Sox team--

 

Manny -1.8

Ortiz -1.2

Millar -0.8

Damon -0.6

Mueller -0.4

Kapler -0.2

Edited September 3, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

I think you are onto something. Instead of shelling out for pitching and hitting, the Sox should aggressively pursue good defenders. I mean, with a good defense, the other teams can 't score. And, if they can't score, you don't need much offense--a couple of runs a game should do it. And good gloves come dirt cheap.

 

Nobody is saying that is the solution.

 

Priority 1: Ace

Priority 2: Solid #2

Priority 3: RH'd bat

 

We have a major defensive improvement at SS, right now. That was our major issue.

 

JT leave and Yoshida moves to DH, and a second position improves with no additions.

 

Urias and Reyes play 2B full time, and again, no fix is needed.

 

I'm not sure why you feel the need to minimize the effect our D has had on our W-L record. Talking about it does not mean we think it lost more games than our rotation did. More than lack of timely hitting did.

 

You might not value DRS (Defensive Runs Saved,) but even if you count these runs by dividing by 2, the projected losses caused by them is significant. How does having a few worse fielders in 2004 matter? They way offset their bad D with superior O, and our pitching was better.

 

DRS Numbers

-39 Devers (3rd worse in all MLBat all positions from 2018-2022)

 

2023:

-8 Yoshida

-7 Devers

-6 Duvall

-6 EValdez (2B)

-5 Duran (CF)

 

This is 32 runs. Our current run differential is +24, so minimizing 32 runs is worse than us hyping it.

 

Yoshida to DH, Duran to LF, EValdez to AAA or DH, Duval to LF/RF and we've greatly improved the D without replacing anyone.

 

Devers to 1B is not essential to making big improvements.

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

SS

-13 Kike (Worst in MLB)

 

1B

-10 Casas (2nd worst)

 

3B

-8 Devers (Worst in MLB)

 

2B

-4 EValdez (6th worst in just a few games!)

 

LF

-8 Yoshida (4th worst, despite DH'ing a lot and having many "rest days.")

 

CF

-3 Duvall (Worst in MLB despite missing about half the season)

 

Team OAA:

-50 BOS

-23 CIN

-17 CWS

-15 OAK

-14 MIA

-11 BAL

-10 NYM

 

Our -50 is as bad as the 2nd, 3rd and 7th worst teams combined!

 

Sorry, but that is just plain SICK!

 

It's worse than the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th combined. Yes, worse than 4 of the worst 6 teams in MLB, combined.

 

SICKO!

 

[moonslav59]

Update on standings before the end of the Yankee game:

 

WC2 HOU 77-60

WC3 TEX 76-60

 

-1.5 TOR 75-62

-5.5 BOS 71-66 -4 from TOR and +3.5 on NYY

-9.0 NYY 67-69

 

[moonslav59]

If a team could ever go on a 14 and 2 run, now is the time for the Sox to pull it off. 13 and 3 or even 12 and 4 might be enough, if it includes a sweep of TOR and TEX.

 

3@ TBR

3v BAL

4v NYY

3@ TOR

3@ TEX

 

Go Sox!

 

One last chance for GLORY!

 

TEX does not have an easy road:

3 v HOU

3 v OAK

4@ TOR

3@ CLE (on a run)

3 v BOS

3 v SEA

3@ LAA

3@ SEA

 

TOR has it easier, but still play:

4 v TEX

3 v BOS

3 v TBR

3 @ TBR

 

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by moonslav59

[Nick]

SS

-13 Kike (Worst in MLB)

 

1B

-10 Casas (2nd worst)

 

3B

-8 Devers (Worst in MLB)

 

2B

-4 EValdez (6th worst in just a few games!)

 

LF

-8 Yoshida (4th worst, despite DH'ing a lot and having many "rest days.")

 

CF

-3 Duvall (Worst in MLB despite missing about half the season)

 

Team OAA:

-50 BOS

-23 CIN

-17 CWS

-15 OAK

-14 MIA

-11 BAL

-10 NYM

 

Our -50 is as bad as the 2nd, 3rd and 7th worst teams combined!

 

Sorry, but that is just plain SICK!

 

It's worse than the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th combined. Yes, worse than 4 of the worst 6 teams in MLB, combined.

 

SICKO!

 

 

This is why you don't bring back Turner or we may have to trade Yoshida and eat half of his contract. It's tough to carry the two if you want better defense.

 

What do we do if Turner accepts the option year because he likes Boston?

Edited September 4, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

This is why you don't bring back Turner or we may have to trade Yoshida and eat half of his contract. It's tough to carry the two if you want better defense.

 

What do we do if Turner accepts the option year because he likes Boston?

 

He'd just ask BOS to renegotiate a 2 year deal.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is why you don't bring back Turner or we may have to trade Yoshida and eat half of his contract. It's tough to carry the two if you want better defense.

 

What do we do if Turner accepts the option year because he likes Boston?

 

Rejoice. I want him in my dugout, clubhouse and community, including as part of a new coaching staff that will be here sooner than later. If the Sox don't see the wisdom in keeping Turner around, it's inevitable that another organization will offer him a job to help players improve.

 

JT's value to team culture entails so much more than just stats, but unfortunately that concept is like asking all the Sheldons in Bloom's office to sit in different chairs...

[mvp 78]

This is why you don't bring back Turner or we may have to trade Yoshida and eat half of his contract. It's tough to carry the two if you want better defense.

 

What do we do if Turner accepts the option year because he likes Boston?

 

You can bring back Turner OR Duvall, you probably can’t bring back both.

 

Casas can get better. Story will be an upgrade next year. Rafaela should be the starting CFer. Devers has been better , but you’re stuck with him. You can hold your nose with bad D in LF.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You can bring back Turner OR Duvall, you probably can’t bring back both.

 

Casas can get better. Story will be an upgrade next year. Rafaela should be the starting CFer. Devers has been better , but you’re stuck with him. You can hold your nose with bad D in LF.

 

Rice, Greenwell, O'Leary and Manny just thumbed their noses at you. But Franchy didn't... he missed.

[Old Red]

You can bring back Turner OR Duvall, you probably can’t bring back both.

 

Casas can get better. Story will be an upgrade next year. Rafaela should be the starting CFer. Devers has been better , but you’re stuck with him. You can hold your nose with bad D in LF.

 

Turner, or Duvall coming back is a must, but the very least it’ll take a two year contract. Rafaela is still a very unproven MLB player at this time as is Abreu, and I’m still not completely sold on Duran, who was definitely better this year, but I don’t believe as good as he first started out this year. What gets done with Dugy is another question. Casas can get better, but has terrible footwork receiving throws. I’ve seen him more than once stretch out for a throw when the ball went sailing over his head. That’s a bad ML 1B.

[notin]

You can bring back Turner OR Duvall, you probably can’t bring back both.

 

Casas can get better. Story will be an upgrade next year. Rafaela should be the starting CFer. Devers has been better , but you’re stuck with him. You can hold your nose with bad D in LF.

 

If the Sox can only bring back one of Turner or Duvall, or should be Duvall.

 

Duvall is a Gold Golve winning OF, whereas Turner has no real position anymore. And if the Sox are to upgrade the defense while moving Verdugo, they really don’t have anyone else capable of playing RF at Fenway…

[mvp 78]

If the Sox can only bring back one of Turner or Duvall, or should be Duvall.

 

Duvall is a Gold Golve winning OF, whereas Turner has no real position anymore. And if the Sox are to upgrade the defense while moving Verdugo, they really don’t have anyone else capable of playing RF at Fenway…

 

Turner would also be getting a substantial pay raise most likely. 6.5M opt out + FA cost. I guess the opt out is a sunk cost, but tough to spend big on two DH’s Masa/Turner.

 

Duvall can play corner OF/1B and seems to like being here.

[notin]

Turner would also be getting a substantial pay raise most likely. 6.5M opt out + FA cost. I guess the opt out is a sunk cost, but tough to spend big on two DH’s Masa/Turner.

 

Duvall can play corner OF/1B and seems to like being here.

 

Turner is a good player, but with the Sox’ defensive issues and numerous questionable defenders still under contract, theyshould be using someone else as the primary DH, hopefully either Casas or Yoshida.

 

I have repeatedly stated it should be Casas, but the Sox will probably give him a chance to improve and grow into the position (and maybe he will). If they move Yoshida to DH, then it helps with the outfielder glut. But keeping players capable of handling CF and RF at Fenway is essential, which is certainly a point in Duvall’s favor…

[moonslav59]

I've been Turner's biggest fan, or tied with others for that role, this year, but moving Yoshida to DH improves the team defense, while finding a way to play Duran in LF not CF and Refsnyder as his platoon. It gives Rafaela and Abreu a chance to win the CF or RF role. That would greatly improve the CF defense.

 

I'm for bringing Duvall back and then every last penny needs to be spent on the rotation.

[Old Red]

I've been Turner's biggest fan, or tied with others for that role, this year, but moving Yoshida to DH improves the team defense, while finding a way to play Duran in LF not CF and Refsnyder as his platoon. It gives Rafaela and Abreu a chance to win the CF or RF role. That would greatly improve the CF defense.

 

I'm for bringing Duvall back and then every last penny needs to be spent on the rotation.

 

I just think it is an awfully big risk to pencil in Duran LF, Rafaela CF, and Abreu RF to start a season. I’m not moving things around just to accommodate someone who is better suited to be the DH. From what the Red Sox brass has shown the last two years I don’t think they care that much about it either.

[notin]

I've been Turner's biggest fan, or tied with others for that role, this year, but moving Yoshida to DH improves the team defense, while finding a way to play Duran in LF not CF and Refsnyder as his platoon. It gives Rafaela and Abreu a chance to win the CF or RF role. That would greatly improve the CF defense.

 

I'm for bringing Duvall back and then every last penny needs to be spent on the rotation.

 

Moving Yoshida to DH or moving Casas to DH and Devers to 1b are both good methods of tightening up the defense.

 

And while the rotation is the biggest problem, simply throwing money at it might not change this. Or at the least stands to be a bigger deal down the road. I’d be ok with a 3-4 year deal for a pitcher, but there will be a few on this market looking for 7-8 year deals that hopefully the Sox have learned their lesson on…

[Nick]

He'd just ask BOS to renegotiate a 2 year deal.

 

Is it wise to give a 39 year old a 2 year deal and a raise when you have another DH in waiting in Yoshida?

 

At some point, Tuner will break down physically.

 

I rather have DH position open for Yoshida, Devers, Casas and any other guys that need a scheduled day off.

 

Rafaela maybe the super utility guy that can play all 3 outfield positions and 2 infield positions. He needs to be in the lineup.

 

Yeah he's unproven. At some point, so were Devers, Casas, etc. You become proven AFTER you get a chance to play.

[notin]

I just think it is an awfully big risk to pencil in Duran LF, Rafaela CF, and Abreu RF to start a season. I’m not moving things around just to accommodate someone who is better suited to be the DH. From what the Red Sox brass has shown the last two years I don’t think they care that much about it either.

 

Did Verdugo get cut?

[notin]

Is it wise to give a 39 year old a 2 year deal and a raise when you have another DH in waiting in Yoshida?

 

At some point, Tuner will break down physically.

 

I rather have DH position open for Yoshida, Devers, Casas and any other guys that need a scheduled day off.

 

Rafaela maybe the super utility guy that can play all 3 outfield positions and 2 infield positions. He needs to be in the lineup.

 

Yeah he's unproven. At some point, so were Devers, Casas, etc.

 

Of all the reasons to avoid a player, “unproven” is the most meaningless. And it’s not even very good. I mean, is Rafaela “unproven” defensively?

[Nick]

Of all the reasons to avoid a player, “unproven” is the most meaningless. And it’s not even very good. I mean, is Rafaela “unproven” defensively?

 

I was simply responding to a poster who uses "unproven" frequently. I believe it's okay to pencil in one player each year that is 'unproven'. Defensively, you don't become a bad center fielder after being spectacular in AAA. It's often said that Rafaela is a gold glove center fielder, period.

 

He looks to me much like Mookie Betts defensively. Maybe his offense will take off, soon.

[Old Red]

Did Verdugo get cut?

 

I think most have him traded already, but I’m not so sure.

[moonslav59]

We have used several starting pitchers, this year, as many expected we'd need to, due to know and projected injuries or possible demotions. Many of our SP'ers had significantly long stretches of good to great stretches, but none lasted long enough to get us over the hump. Here is a look at those "stretches:"

 

Sale: after his first 3 starts, Sale has had a 3.02 ERA in 13 starts, including the 4 he's had after coming back from a mid-season injury. His stretch from game 4 to his injury was 8 games at 2.87.

 

Paxton: surprised most of us by coming right out of the gates, after missing April, doing well, but his best stretch started from game 4 to game 16 (13 GS): 2.99 ERA. (He was at 5.54 after his first 3 games and has been at 14.90 in his last 3 GS.

 

Bello has been remarkably consistent. The stretch I chose for him started in his 3rd game: 3.20 ERA up to today, but his better shorter stretch was a 2.35 ERA over 12 games from the end of April to early July. The team is 15-8 in his starts and have a losing record in other games.

 

Pivetta: perhaps the biggest "swing stretch" was provided by Pivetta, starting two games after his demotion from the rotation, so in some ways, he does not fit into the title of this post. However, this stretch did include some starts or long relief stints that resembled starts, so here it is: he had a 5.46 ERA on May 24th, then did this...

23 games, including 3 GS and 10 relief outing of 3 or more IP: 3.36 ERA

His best stretch was 15 games from May 28th to July 25th: 1.51 ERA

 

Crawford: has been one of our most consistently good pitchers all year. We can view one stretch of his as his whole season, after game 1. 3.61 ERA in 25 games, including 17 GS and 4 relief games with 3 or more IP. He had 2 shorter stretches of 1.82 in 10 games and 3.28 in 12 games.

 

Houck has not really had a good stretch. His ERA has ranged from 3.81 to 4.96 since game 2. There is no stretch of 4 games or more where he had an ERA below 4.00.

 

Whitlock has been consistently bad, all year. The best I could find was 7 games at 3.95.

 

Had these guys had longer stretches of pitching well, or just 2-3 of them, maybe, just maybe....

 

[Old Red]

Of all the reasons to avoid a player, “unproven” is the most meaningless. And it’s not even very good. I mean, is Rafaela “unproven” defensively?

 

Yes I have seen Rafaela in Portland go, and get ‘em in the OF. Nobody knows how his bat will play in the big leagues, or Anreu, or Duran still for that matter.

[Old Red]

Of all the reasons to avoid a player, “unproven” is the most meaningless. And it’s not even very good. I mean, is Rafaela “unproven” defensively?

 

Yes I have seen Rafaela in Portland go, and get ‘em in the OF. Nobody knows how his bat will play in the big leagues, or Anreu, or Duran still for that matter.

[moonslav59]

I just think it is an awfully big risk to pencil in Duran LF, Rafaela CF, and Abreu RF to start a season. I’m not moving things around just to accommodate someone who is better suited to be the DH. From what the Red Sox brass has shown the last two years I don’t think they care that much about it either.

 

I'm not. If Dugo gets traded, this is my scheme:

 

LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Yoshida 3rd string)

 

CF: Rafaela and Abreu (Duvall/Duran 3rd string)

 

RF: Duvall and Abreu (Refsnyder 3rd string)

 

We also have Rosier in AAA, next year.

 

We could play Yoshida LF, Duran CF and Duvall RF and not count on any rookies.

 

[Nick]

It's unbelievable to me that Casas is not getting more 'love' on this board after the year he's had, especially considering his slow start.

 

As a first year player, Casas' OPS, now at .862 ranks second in AL by a wide margin. Third place is Nathan Lowe of Texas at .817. Only 3 players are above .800, Diaz of Rays leading the pact at .900.

 

He maybe another player in addition to Bello that Sox should consider locking up. I'd expect him to move up in the lineup next year for more RBI opportunities.

 

He has one more HR than what's his name from the Jays. He has the second most HR for that matter.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Is it wise to give a 39 year old a 2 year deal and a raise when you have another DH in waiting in Yoshida?

 

At some point, Tuner will break down physically.

 

I rather have DH position open for Yoshida, Devers, Casas and any other guys that need a scheduled day off.

 

Rafaela maybe the super utility guy that can play all 3 outfield positions and 2 infield positions. He needs to be in the lineup.

 

Yeah he's unproven. At some point, so were Devers, Casas, etc. You become proven AFTER you get a chance to play.

 

I'm for bringing Duvall back, not JT.

 

I was just responding to the idea of JT taking the option. If JT wants to return to Boston, so badly, he could just ask for a bump up in salary for 1 or 2 years.

 

I see a way to improve our D and make room for some up and coming younger players without costing us a penny.

 

Yoshida should DH with Casas getting some time, there. That could improve 2-3 positions, as it allows Duran to play LF not CF, thereby improving LF, CF and sometimes 1B.