A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

You brought up the deadline. I said the deadline had nothing to do with it. They were blowing leads all year.

 

One more time. The rotation was the bigger problem in 2019 because they produced 30 fewer quality starts than they did in 2018. Also, as I've also said, a quick look at the 2d half of the 2019 season shows that no--repeat, no--leads were lost in the 9th inning in close games. So this lack of a closer crap is just that.

 

I also reminded you that the 2021 Sox also had closer problems and did pretty well--92 wins and getting to the ALCS. You like to boast about DD's brilliance in putting together the 2016 and 2017 Sox, but both those teams crapped out in the ALDS despite having Sale, Porcello, THE GREAT KIMBREL, ERod, Price, Barnes, Kelly--as well as Mookie, Beni, Bogey, JBJ, Moreland, Pedroia, Vazquez, Leon, etc.

[moonslav59]

You brought up the deadline. I said the deadline had nothing to do with it. They were blowing leads all year.

 

Then, you said this....

 

I said Dombrowski should have done something...

 

Why wouldn't doing nothing at the deadline be part of the equation. The season was not over, by then.

 

What's so hard to get about this?

 

Yes, we lost games, all year, but we did nothing at the deadline, and it could have been different.

[Maxbialystock]

Kimbrel is 8th all-time in Saves. He's had a fine career. 2.42 ERA, .99 WHIP. He had a rough stretch in the 2018 postseason.

 

I just said I didn't like him and his showboat ways. Plus the 2018 postseason was a big deal to me if not to you. And don't try to convince me Kimbrel in 2018 was anywhere near as good as Uehara in 2013.

 

I provided two significant data points about 2019 dgalehouse chooses to ignore. The first is that the rotation had 30 fewer quality starts in 2019 than in 2018. The second (and more important) is that in the 2d half of the 2019 season there were exactly zero blown saves in the 9th inning, which is normally the only inning in which Kimbrel or Jansen pitched/pitches.

 

For good measure I pointed out that the closer situation in 2021--after Barnes went south on us-- was horrible, but the Sox still made it to the postseason and even got to the ALCS (without a closer).

[moonslav59]

Standings update just for Red:

 

With the Yankee loss to Detroit, today

 

-4.0 from 3rd place (TOR)

 

-4.0 from 5th place (NYY)

 

A great day for the Sox.

 

We are also tied with MIN for the 7th and 8th slot in AL winning %: about in the middle. We are also #15 out of 30 MLB teams.

 

Rejoice in our mediocrity.

 

[Maxbialystock]

You didn't make sense, when you said the 2019 deadline had "nothing to do" with the drop off. Did you say that, or not?

 

Did not getting pen help at the deadline make a difference?

 

If yes, why say it didn't matter?

 

Why is this so hard for you to comprehend?

 

Yes, the pen was a major reason for the drop off, as was the rotation. You blame DD for not making moves, and my point is that our GM's hands began to be tied after 2018, and it was not DD's nor Bloom's choice to not spend more.

 

Ahem. Don't believe me. But, please, on your own just go and check the box scores for all the 2019 post-ASG games. If I didn't miss any, I think you will find that the Sox gave up no 9th inning runs in any of the close games they lost.

[dgalehouse]

One more time. The rotation was the bigger problem in 2019 because they produced 30 fewer quality starts than they did in 2018. Also, as I've also said, a quick look at the 2d half of the 2019 season shows that no--repeat, no--leads were lost in the 9th inning in close games. So this lack of a closer crap is just that.

 

I also reminded you that the 2021 Sox also had closer problems and did pretty well--92 wins and getting to the ALCS. You like to boast about DD's brilliance in putting together the 2016 and 2017 Sox, but both those teams crapped out in the ALDS despite having Sale, Porcello, THE GREAT KIMBREL, ERod, Price, Barnes, Kelly--as well as Mookie, Beni, Bogey, JBJ, Moreland, Pedroia, Vazquez, Leon, etc.

One more time ? Really? Don't talk down to me like that. I am not going to go any further with this because I think that you are just breaking balls. Not trying to be serious. If I mention saves , you say " I don't care about freaking saves. " Whatever the topic is, you come back with the same crap. I am not going to deal with you and your childish nonsense. The bottom line in baseball is that you either win or you lose. But you try to diminish the winning and excuse the losing. I guess you have your motivations, but I am tired of your routine.

[moonslav59]

Ahem. Don't believe me. But, please, on your own just go and check the box scores for all the 2019 post-ASG games. If I didn't miss any, I think you will find that the Sox gave up no 9th inning runs in any of the close games they lost.

 

I believe you, but Dale insists the pen lost games for us all year long.

 

I'm pretty sure the pen did lose some games after the ASB, even if not by a closer.

 

[moonslav59]

Don't talk down to me like that.

 

You mean like the poster with a long list of doing just that?

 

Just recently...

 

Now , you are just being ridiculous....

 

...You are not making any sense... You just want to get into an argument over it, like you always do....

 

Well, I was right all along , hard as it is for you to admit.

 

That's just from this page.

 

Who is talking down to who?

[moonslav59]

Losing big to HOu really hurt, badly, but beating these teams might have made a big difference:

 

0-2 STL

0-3 PIT

0-3 MIA

 

or even...

1-2 COL

1-2 CWS

1-2 WSH

 

Of course, 1-7 v TBR hurt like hell, too, but we are 18-7 vs BAL, TOR and NYY.

 

We are also 11-5 vs ATL, AZ, MIL, PHI and TEX.

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by moonslav59

[dgalehouse]

One final point on the difference between 2018 and 2019. In 2018 , the bullpen recorded 46 saves and 20 blown saves for a success rate of 70%. In 2019 , the bullpen recorded 33 saves and 31 blown saves for a success rate of just 52 %. As you can see, the amount of save situations was about the same. ( I have no intention of combing through the box scores to see how many of the blown saves were in the 9th, 8th or 7th innings.) But it is pretty clear that there was a big drop off in the performance of the bullpen. And it should be obvious that the bullpen issues hurt the team's overall record.

[moonslav59]

One final point on the difference between 2018 and 2019. In 2018 , the bullpen recorded 46 saves and 20 blown saves for a success rate of 70%. In 2019 , the bullpen recorded 33 saves and 31 blown saves for a success rate of just 52 %. As you can see, the amount of save situations was about the same. ( I have no intention of combing through the box scores to see how many of the blown saves were in the 9th, 8th or 7th innings.) But it is pretty clear that there was a big drop off in the performance of the bullpen. And it should be obvious that the bullpen issues hurt the team's overall record.

 

Again, who is disagreeing?

 

Why the need to keep repeating a point we all agree on. The pen sucked.

[Randy Red Sox]

Standings update just for Red:

 

With the Yankee loss to Detroit, today

 

-4.0 from 3rd place (TOR)

 

-4.0 from 5th place (NYY)

 

A great day for the Sox.

 

We are also tied with MIN for the 7th and 8th slot in AL winning %: about in the middle. We are also #15 out of 30 MLB teams.

 

Rejoice in our mediocrity.

 

 

right in the mushy middle. perfect spot for Bloom to select another HS SS with our 1st rd pick

[moonslav59]

right in the mushy middle. perfect spot for Bloom to select another HS SS with our 1st rd pick

 

If the SSs are the best on the board, I hope we draft 4 next year.

[Nick]

Good news is there is no reason not to play Rafaela and Abreu if we think we have no shot at making the playoffs.

 

I don't think we have a chance with this pitching staff.

 

Might as well find out if we need Verdugo.

 

Obviously it won't cost us much to keep him.

[moonslav59]

Good news is there is no reason not to play Rafaela and Abreu if we think we have no shot at making the playoffs.

 

I don't think we have a chance with this pitching staff.

 

Might as well find out if we need Verdugo.

 

Obviously it won't cost us much to keep him.

 

I'd like to see them play, and 5 weeks is a decent amount of time, but it's not really all that definitive.

 

As of now, I think I'd be fine starting 2024 with this:

 

LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Yoshida at DH and back-up LF)

 

CF: Rafaela (Abreu and Duran as back up)

 

RF: Dugu (Abreu as back up)

 

If we trade Dugo, I think we'd need to add a defensive OF'er for CF/RF.

 

Trading Duran would bring back way more than Dugo and probably even Dugo + Yorke. That would leave us with:

 

LF: Yoshida/Ref/Dugo/Abreu

 

CF: Rafaela/Abreu

 

RF: Dugo/Abreu

[Nick]

I'd like to see them play, and 5 weeks is a decent amount of time, but it's not really all that definitive.

 

As of now, I think I'd be fine starting 2024 with this:

 

LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Yoshida at DH and back-up LF)

 

CF: Rafaela (Abreu and Duran as back up)

 

RF: Dugu (Abreu as back up)

 

If we trade Dugo, I think we'd need to add a defensive OF'er for CF/RF.

 

Trading Duran would bring back way more than Dugo and probably even Dugo + Yorke. That would leave us with:

 

LF: Yoshida/Ref/Dugo/Abreu

 

CF: Rafaela/Abreu

 

RF: Dugo/Abreu

 

I myself would not know definitively what to do with Verdugo this winter with pending FA looming. I go back and forth on him.

[Nick]

Donaldson was released by the Yankees earlier this week after a failed stint in New York. He appeared in just 33 games for the Yankees this season, batting .142 (15-for-106) during that stretch. All told, Donaldson appeared in 165 games for New York and batted .207 with 25 home runs and 77 RBI. He also struck out 180 times.

 

This didn't go well for the Yanks.

[moonslav59]

I myself would not know definitively what to do with Verdugo this winter with pending FA looming. I go back and forth on him.

 

It is a tough call, especially in light of a much improved defense in RF. with all the side issues he was involved in, I’m not sure he is still a Cora fave.

 

I’d see what we can get via trade and pull the trigger, if we can fill another need somewhere.

[Duran Is The Man]

donaldson was released by the yankees earlier this week after a failed stint in new york. He appeared in just 33 games for the yankees this season, batting .142 (15-for-106) during that stretch. All told, donaldson appeared in 165 games for new york and batted .207 with 25 home runs and 77 rbi. He also struck out 180 times.

 

this didn't go well for the yanks.

 

lolololololololololololol

[Maxbialystock]

I myself would not know definitively what to do with Verdugo this winter with pending FA looming. I go back and forth on him.

 

Well, he does have a reputation for being immature, which apparently grates on Cora.

 

But here we are on Sep 1 with just 28 games left and guess who leads the Sox in WAR with 3.5? Verdugo.

 

Everybody on talksox is screaming about the lousy defense, but on the other hand a ton of talksoxers, including moonslav, want to dump Verdugo even though he has--by a wide margin--the best WAR in the Sox outfield. It's +1.0, which is only the 2d best among MLB right fielders.

 

Right now no other Sox outfielder has a + DWAR. Five years ago when Mookie had his AL MVP season, his DWAR was +1.8.

 

Right field at Fenway is one of the toughest places to defend in MLB. But somehow Dugo is comfortable out there, makes some good grabs--pretty good range--and has 11 outfield assists to 2 errors.

[notin]

I myself would not know definitively what to do with Verdugo this winter with pending FA looming. I go back and forth on him.

 

Extend Verdugo….

[cp176]

Based on what I have seen this year I would tend to want to try to keep Verdugo. Looks like you know what you have in him and it is not bad. I like what Duran has to offer but I would hold judgement on any of the younger folks helping us until we actually see them getting a chance and seeing them do it.

[mvp 78]

Extend Verdugo….

 

I don't think they want to.

[oldtimer]

Extend Verdugo….

 

Extend Verdugo and dump Cora

[mvp 78]

Extend Verdugo and dump Cora

 

Are we extending him with 4 drawn horses so that we can quarter him?

[Bellhorn04]

Extend Verdugo and dump Cora

 

Why, because Cora disciplined him for not hustling and for being late?

[moonslav59]

Everybody on talksox is screaming about the lousy defense, but on the other hand a ton of talksoxers, including moonslav, want to dump Verdugo even though he has--by a wide margin--the best WAR in the Sox outfield. It's +1.0, which is only the 2d best among MLB right fielders.

 

.

 

I do NOT "want to dump" Verdugo." I am willing to trade him for equal value.

I think Sox brass is looking to trade him, as they will likely not extend him. He has one year of control left. He has trade value.

I'm tired of his antics and the poor example he sets for the growing number of young player joining the team.

He is having a fine defensive year in RF, but he has had average and below average years in RF, before. (I'm not one to always think a player's recent year is bound to be repeated, next year.)

I really like the idea of having Rafaela and Abreu get a solid chance at winning the CF and RF jobs.

I don't like the idea of having Duran and Ref as back-ups in CF or RF, so we do need someone else, and I guess having Dugo in RF for one more year makes a lot of sense in that context. We can let Rafaela and Abrue battle for CF and Abreu can back up RF, but then we have too many OF'ers, even if we make Yoshida the FT DH. Do you want to trade Ref or Duran?

 

It seems many here (not you Max) complain about us never trading for anything good- like a SP'er, but whenever a name is suggested, we are told we want to dump the guy or don't like him.

 

You gotta give to get!

 

We need pitching. We have an excess in OF and some young talent that appear to be ML ready. We can't make everyone "untouchable," if we want to make changes to a roster that is not a winning one.

[moonslav59]

Any news on the two Sox September call ups?

[mvp 78]

Any news on the two Sox September call ups?

 

Walter and Valdez

[moonslav59]

Walter and Valdez

 

Where do get this info?