A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Sure, but pitching alone can’t. Good defense makes pitching better. And it’s often much cheaper to upgrade defense over pitching…

 

The hard part is upgrading the D without hurting the O.

 

Players that are good at both are costly.

[moonslav59]

Updated OAA

 

Team

-49 BOS

-25 CIN

-17 CWS

-17 OAK

-16 MIA

-11 BAL

-10 MIN

 

By Positions:

1B: T29th at -9

2B: T30th at -11

SS: 24th at -7 (thanks to Story's return)

3B: 29th at -8

 

Talking outs differential with our top competitors?

-66 TEX

-60 SEA

-52 HOU

-45 TOR

 

45 to 66 more times, our pitchers had to get 4 outs in an inning, this year.

 

 

Infiled:

-38 BOS (we are as bad as the next two combined)

-21 TOR

-17 CIN

 

Outfiled: T 27th at -11

We are at 0 in RF T12th), -2 in CF (3oth) and -10 in LF (T26th)

[Nick]

2. Wilyer Abreu’s plate discipline

 

Wilyer Abreu has a chase percentage of just 8.5% in the first 113 pitches he has seen.

 

On average, major leaguers have a 28.4% chase rate this year. Abreu’s chase rate is bound to rise as his sample size grows. But it certainly is a glimpse of his plate discipline. He had an impressive 16.3% walk percentage for Triple-A Worcester this season after walking in 19.7% of his plate appearances last year. He was one of only five minor leaguers in all of affiliated ball in 2022 to finish with 100 or more walks when he walked 114 times.

 

Abreu is unofficially auditioning for a spot on the 2024 team.

 

You can't ignore this guy.

[Nick]

3. Ceddanne Rafaela’s defense

 

Manager Alex Cora has mentioned the potential of the 22-year-old receiving some reps at second base.

 

Rafaela already has Gold Glove potential in center field.

 

Looks to me like Bloom is looking to improve internally at 2B. Crowded outfield maybe?

[notin]

The hard part is upgrading the D without hurting the O.

 

Players that are good at both are costly.

 

True, and that might be the case with my possession suggestion of Chapman.

 

But one Glove-First or Glove-Only player batting ninth rarely derails a team…

[notin]

3. Ceddanne Rafaela’s defense

 

Manager Alex Cora has mentioned the potential of the 22-year-old receiving some reps at second base.

 

Rafaela already has Gold Glove potential in center field.

 

Looks to me like Bloom is looking to improve internally at 2B. Crowded outfield maybe?

 

Or… Just seeing what they have in Rafaela…

[moonslav59]

 

But one Glove-First or Glove-Only player batting ninth rarely derails a team…

 

Agreed, as long as it only one.

[mvp 78]

2. Wilyer Abreu’s plate discipline

 

Wilyer Abreu has a chase percentage of just 8.5% in the first 113 pitches he has seen.

 

On average, major leaguers have a 28.4% chase rate this year. Abreu’s chase rate is bound to rise as his sample size grows. But it certainly is a glimpse of his plate discipline. He had an impressive 16.3% walk percentage for Triple-A Worcester this season after walking in 19.7% of his plate appearances last year. He was one of only five minor leaguers in all of affiliated ball in 2022 to finish with 100 or more walks when he walked 114 times.

 

Abreu is unofficially auditioning for a spot on the 2024 team.

 

You can't ignore this guy.

 

You could do worse than Abreu at your 5th OF spot.

[mvp 78]

3. Ceddanne Rafaela’s defense

 

Manager Alex Cora has mentioned the potential of the 22-year-old receiving some reps at second base.

 

Rafaela already has Gold Glove potential in center field.

 

Looks to me like Bloom is looking to improve internally at 2B. Crowded outfield maybe?

 

Stupid.

[moonslav59]

I'd try to make it possible for Abreu and Rafaela to be on the 26, but they need to be playing a lot. I'm not sure we start the year like that.

 

If they view Rafaela as SS and 2B depth as well as the most of time CF'er, he should be on the 26.

 

If we bring back Dugo or Duvall, I'm not sure Abreu gets enough playing time to start on the 26. (Or, we start Rafaela in AAA and Abreu on the big club.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

True, and that might be the case with my possession suggestion of Chapman.

 

But one Glove-First or Glove-Only player batting ninth rarely derails a team…

 

Chapman is an above-average hitter. That's why he's such a valuable commodity.

[Dipre]

Chapman looks cooked. I don't understand the fascination with him.

[notin]

Chapman looks cooked. I don't understand the fascination with him.

 

Some folks like their players well done and not raw…

[Bellhorn04]

Chapman looks cooked. I don't understand the fascination with him.

 

He's been a consistent 4 WAR player. I don't understand why you don't like that.

[Dipre]

Some folks like their players well done and not raw…

 

Looks chewy to me.

[Bellhorn04]

Some folks like their players well done and not raw…

 

Not bad!

[moonslav59]

He's been a consistent 4 WAR player. I don't understand why you don't like that.

 

fWAR 2021-2023

 

11.6 Devers

11.4 Chapman

 

Looks good to me.

 

2023 fWAR

5. Candelario 3.4

6. Henderson 3.3

7. Chapman 3.2

8. Machado 3.1

 

T10. Devers 2.6

[Dipre]

.716

.757

.769 (Nice) OPS.

[moonslav59]

.716

.757

.769 (Nice) OPS.

 

114 OPS+ 2022-2023 is not that bad for a plus defender.

 

I don't think we should pay for 3B, when pitching is our biggest need, second biggest need and third biggest need.

[Dipre]

114 OPS+ 2022-2023 is not that bad for a plus defender.

 

I don't think we should pay for 3B, when pitching is our biggest need, second biggest need and third biggest need.

 

That's mainly my point. Chapman is a luxury item for this team. Get SP.

[Bellhorn04]

114 OPS+ 2022-2023 is not that bad for a plus defender.

 

Yoshida is +118.

[Bellhorn04]

114 OPS+ 2022-2023 is not that bad for a plus defender.

 

I don't think we should pay for 3B, when pitching is our biggest need, second biggest need and third biggest need.

 

Based on some of your recent posts, don't you think defense is a top need too?

[Dipre]

But he's already signed here and won't cost draft pick compensation. Also, like Yoshida, Chapman cannot pitch.

[dgalehouse]

As the star of the game, Casas was interviewed by NESN's Jahmai Webster post-game. He gave one of the most thoughtful, intelligent interviews you will ever see from a ballplayer. Very impressive. Great future.

[Dipre]

As the star of the game, Casas was interviewed by NESN's Jahmai Webster post-game. He gave one of the most thoughtful, intelligent interviews you will ever see from a ballplayer. Very impressive. Great future.

 

Part of the reason I'm a big fan. That kid's a free spirit, but he's thoughtful and honest. Some ballplayers come off as stand-offish and disingenous.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3. Ceddanne Rafaela’s defense

 

Manager Alex Cora has mentioned the potential of the 22-year-old receiving some reps at second base.

 

Rafaela already has Gold Glove potential in center field.

 

Looks to me like Bloom is looking to improve internally at 2B. Crowded outfield maybe?

 

No, Bloom can't help himself attempting to contrive versatility for every best player available. Imagine the increased value of Rafaela when he can be converted to grounds crew utility, honing his focus while liming the batter's box and the fair lines, and building up hammies, quads and calves rolling out the tarp during rain delays.

[Dipre]

No, Bloom can't help himself attempting to contrive versatility for every best player available. Imagine the increased value of Rafaela when he can be converted to grounds crew utility, honing his focus while liming the batter's box and the fair lines, and building up hammies, quads and calves rolling out the tarp during rain delays.

 

Didn't Cora talk about the kid maybe taking some reps at 2B? Maybe?

[cp176]

Sure, but pitching alone can’t. Good defense makes pitching better. And it’s often much cheaper to upgrade defense over pitching…

 

pitching alone can't either - they are the same to me - peanut butter and jelly.

[Dipre]

pitching alone can't either - they are the same to me - peanut butter and jelly.

 

They are absolutely not the same: A great pitching staff can prop up a bad defense, but not vice versa. You can't catch homers.

[moonslav59]

Based on some of your recent posts, don't you think defense is a top need too?

 

No, because I already laid out how our D should improve significantly without any outside additions.

 

SS: greatly improved with Story FT and Reyes as back-up.

 

2B: significantly improved with Reyes and Urias.

 

LF: improved with Yoshida to DH more often and Duran/Rey in LF, instead.

 

CF: could be greatly improved the more Rafaela plays there.

 

The rest should be even or maybe improved at 2 slots by age progression at 1B and C.

 

We don't need to add players based on defense, but re-signing Duvall would not be hurtful, if he plays more RF and LF over CF.